Horse Antepost
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I'm quite confident this horse will win if he turns up. For me its a no brainer he is the best horse in the field based on what he has achieved this season. His last 2 runs have put a serious question mark over his ability, but both times they ran him on ground that is clearly not suitable, the horse is much better than that on faster ground and returning to 1m 4f will be right up his street. His Derby and Dante win was most impressive and if he can return to that level... he will win this.
As for Treve, don't think he has had much quality races this season, okay he won his trial in most impressive fashion but was 2s slower than Postponed... for me his undoing will the preparation, hasn't really been tested... Think this season there is an air of invincibility about him but I think its misguided, its all based on last seasons form ...
Golden Horn is the clear form pick.
Good Luck.
As for Treve, don't think he has had much quality races this season, okay he won his trial in most impressive fashion but was 2s slower than Postponed... for me his undoing will the preparation, hasn't really been tested... Think this season there is an air of invincibility about him but I think its misguided, its all based on last seasons form ...
Golden Horn is the clear form pick.
Good Luck.
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Treve is female.
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Treve is a she....
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I seem to do that in every thread... Think I have the record on calling fillies "he"...
Anyway ... she! Thanks for the heads up. |
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The same was said about Taghrooda last year against Treve who had the worst possible preparation to the race.
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Would you really want to be comparing Taghrooda with Golden Horn?
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I've not compared the two, I'm simply saying going into the race it looked as though Taghrooda would put it to Treve and that didn't happen.
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Yes but she was going into the Arc on the back of getting beaten in a p1ss poor Yorkshire Oaks at about 1/6.
Not that surprising she didn't best Treve. GH is going in a completely different proposition... just saying I don't understand the comparison tbh. |
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And Golden Horn is completely blemish free is he?
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Good Luck Iris...but have to say unless you're a fishin about Treve i'm rolling on floor with laughter
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You could say there were excuses for Taghrooda's loss to Tapestry. Just as I'm sure the ground was no doubt the excuse for Golden Horn's defeat at the hands of Arabian Queen. Who subsequently ran like a dog in France. Arguably, Free Eagle may well have won the Irish Champion Stakes had Golden Horn not cannoned into him. Fair enough he will appreciate the step back up to 1m4f and Free Eagle may even skip the Arc but for
me the horse capable of posing the biggest threat to Treve is Fabre's New Bay. |
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Golden Horn preparation the massive problem for me!!To the well too often i think/hope!
Treve/New bay so far the perfect classic preparation for the race! Agree 100 percent with you Paterson,beat me to the post. |
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Well interesting last year there was little confidence in her
http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30356773/treve-101-arc?post_id=541737109#541737109 this year she is all the rage... how racing can change in a year... |
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On my phone so that link isn't working for me at the moment unfortunately - I assume it's full of negativity towards Treve. Perhaps rightly so considering she was beaten at 3/10 at Longchamp, beaten at 8/13 at Ascot and was beaten at 4/5 when coming 4th of 4 in her final Arc prep in the Vermeille. She could have been backed at any price on the machine after that and was clear there were issues with the horse. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying I was surprised to see her come back to form and win the Arc like that last year, I certainly didn't expect it. This year she couldn't have been more impressive in her preparation. I haven't backed her, I'm still contemplating a bet on New Bay at this stage, but at this moment in time I think she is the most likely winner.
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Iris
Have you seen the photo on main Arc thread of the watering taking place at Longchamp. Not going to help GH surely as the ground is currently descibed as soft with the possibility of rain on Sat.? |
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Yeah saw that... for me its a case of them paying that fee and supplementing him, I don't see the ground as much as an issue for Golden Horn... with the way the weather is... Just want him to book his ticket... then worry about it on the day.
I think there is a bias in France towards Treve getting a third Arc, but they will be shooting themselves in the foot if class horses like GH didn't run... he is a English Derby horse... best we have at the distance... and will certainly be a full house and a more compelling race if he turns up... If they want Treve to win an ordinary Arc they may as well flood the place... I personally think it will be more fitting for his toughest test to date in his quest for a third Arc to get GH to run. |
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Hi Paterson, this year she has not raced against the likes of the Fugue and Cirrus De Aigles, last year she had only 2 lengths to find and bearing in mind she didn't have these horses to beat .. this year her best opposition was Flintshire and last time out she was 2 seconds slower than Postponed...
so I don't think its as scintillating as it seems... but guess there are loads that will disagree with that assessment. |
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Free Eagle not over priced at 16/1 in a place? Yes it has to prove itself at the trip unlike the other main protagonists but sensed all year this was his main target so I think team Weld must be confident he will stay. On Irish Champion form on ground that would not have totally suited surely 16/1 is just to big.
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this year she has not raced against the likes of the Fugue and Cirrus De Aigles
so I don't think its as scintillating as it seems I actually agree with this. Last year's Arc form wasn't anything special in the history of the race. There was much made of her return to form on the day but by my reckoning she ran no faster than when beaten in the POW. That said, it's still far and away the best piece of form on offer, with the possible exception of Golden Horn's earlier season form, who on that form could run her close in receipt of 5lbs. Not much use having good form though without a good prep to go with it and I'd say it's odds against GH even runs to form. |
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I'll be very surprised if Golden Horn doesn't run.
I mean what else are they going to do with the horse, this is the best horse race in Europe they might as well go for it. You could save him for the boring Ascot champion stakes or the ridiculous breeders cup, or they could run him in a proper horse race against a proper rival. He has already lost his unbeaten record they have nothing to lose. I doubt the ground will be that bad, and I think they could have run him in the King George and I think he would have gagged up. The reason they didn't was because they were saving him for the better ground, and that policy backfired as he got beat anyway. He would have won the King George even in that ground and I can't see the going at Longchamp being that bad. It will probably be good to soft, soft in places at worse and he won't get beat because of the going. |
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He would have won the King George even in that ground
I agree, I had him 3lbs ahead of the winning performance by Postponed and that's not including the 12lbs allowance, so he'd have had to run over a stone below par, which is possible but not probable. It will probably be good to soft, soft in places at worse and he won't get beat because of the going I'm not too sure about that as this isn't the penalty kick the King George would've been. If Treve runs to form then Golden Horn is going to need to run to his absolute best, maybe even having to improve slightly. I'm not sure that would happen unless he gets his optimum ground conditions, or at least good going. |
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I'm not sure that would happen unless he gets his optimum ground conditions, or at least good going.
but he is going to get good ground figgis so where do we go from there? |
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Certainly I agree about the King George, obviously history will tell us but I think it has the possibility of being one of the worst G1's of all time and certainly the worst KG of the last 20 years. You might have been able to attached a cart to GH that day and he still would have been in the mix. Be really helpful if we could have a going report in the lead to up the richest race in Europe
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but he is going to get good ground figgis so where do we go from there?
Don't think any of us can know that, harry, until Saturday afternoon at the earliest, whatever info we're given before then. |
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http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/paris-16e-arrondissement/75016
http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur well every weather report i read figgis seems to think the weather is set fair and if they aren't watering i'd say it will be good ground |
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In the weekender gallop reports Golden Horn was twice reported to have "burst clear" of it's galloping companion.
At least we can see it's still in good form. |
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lewisham i longer buy the weekender but was there a report on jack hobbs i just want to know if he is lame
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I don't think so Harry, as far as I'm aware he's on course for the champion stakes.
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In the weekender gallop reports Golden Horn was twice reported to have "burst clear" of it's galloping companion
Didn't Authorized do something similar before he bombed out in the Arc?  I think Chapple-Hyam blamed himself afterwards saying he might've overcooked him. |
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Peter Chapple Hyam is no John Gosden mind you.
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No, Chapple-Hyam has had an Arc neck 2nd though, let's see if Gosden can go one better
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I might be remembering the wrong trainer with this but I think it was Vincent O'Brien who said something along the lines of when it gets near the end of the season and you watch a horse do an impressive piece of work on the gallops you never know if that's the last good performance you'll get from it.
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Thats definitely the $64,000 question. If you looked at most horses who have tried it over the years, you'd have to be concerned that GH can still be at his peak.
But I really dont think Gosden would be supplementing if he wasnt sure the horse is still in peak condition... and if he is, I dont think Treve has faced a rival this good. Whatever happens, I just hope they both get there and have no excuses and we see a race to remember. |
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Figgis 30 Sep 15 14:04 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 5,732 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
In the weekender gallop reports Golden Horn was twice reported to have "burst clear" of it's galloping companion Didn't Authorized do something similar before he bombed out in the Arc? Wink I think Chapple-Hyam blamed himself afterwards saying he might've overcooked him. Yes you might have a point there Figgis but as CCM said, Gosden seems to be the man these days when it comes to these big races. I also get the feeling that they are being increasingly bullish, like with the owner saying he expects to beat Treve easily. I don't recall such a confident statement from him in the past. Also Golden horn for me was undercooked in the champion stakes, he raced lazily there, I expect him to come on for the run. Whether that will be enough to beat the mare we'll just have to see. |
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Think JG has in years gone by overdone some of his 3yo,believe this is not the case with GH and expect a career best run ,whether that will be good enough is another matter , of course not being an "Arc type " must be a huge hurdle to overcome
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GH last 6 RPR's are 112 124 128(Derby) 133(Eclipse) 119 (Int) 125.(IrishCh).
The Eclipse rating is too high for me. The time was nothing special and he was tiring at the end (on the clock.)For me, the Derby was his best run by far. The ground was fast, he finished well. the last 3 runs were all hard races. He hasn't had much of a breather, if at all.To have any chance of winning the Arc, he has to deliver the 128 again. Can he do it? Camelot couldn't - he went 121 (2000G) 126(Derby) 119 (Irish Derby) 120 (St leger). The Irish Derby bottomed him and the St leger finished him off. Despite that he went off 2/1 for the Arc and ran to 107. I don't know what GH will do, whether he can recapture his Derby form or whether after a hard season he will do a Camelot. We won't know until after the race. |
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Sandown, what did you make of the Irish Champion Stakes run? It was a pretty moderate final time performance for the race but Dettori slowed the pace midway. Do you think that was enough of an excuse for the ordinary time?
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I rated it 116 on final time but the finishing splits were nothing special and so no upgrade from me. Nevertheless, an OK time (not exceptional) but visually it looked like he had a hard race as did FE. Maybe only Found didn't have as hard a race as she was nearest at the line and never challenged.
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Going back to Authorized I have to say his disappointing run in the Arc wasn't that predictable, certainly not to me anyway. I thought he was the most likely winner and the only reason I didn't back him was I didn't like the price. He'd only had 4 runs that season, with the Eclipse a below par run, but was back to his best at York. So wasn't as likely a candidate to run below form as some other Derby winners. Actually that year I thought Dylan Thomas was more likely to throw in a poor one.
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Figgis
Going back to Authorized I have to say his disappointing run in the Arc wasn't that predictable, certainly not to me anyway Same here. His price was not attractive for the Arc.I had no special negatives for him other than I didn't like his prep.I didn't much like that for DT either but he put up a good overall time and finish at Leopardstown.I backed Zambezi Sun that year so I got it badly wrong. |