Cambridgeshire

lol - Yes we do...

but whats not to like about this horse its nearly autumn and he won two big handicaps this time last year ... obviously stone higher... the main concern... but my main bet in this.

Hopefully we are both right...

Express Himself at 33-1 with laddies for me.

Just think he has a nice steady progressive profile with form on both the Rowley mile and July course and shapes like the 9f trip could be ideal. Has a win on soft ground too which at this stage looks like what we are going to get given the forecast rain on already easy ground.

GL all.

Pricewise pick and one of the ante-post favourites Breden is out. Basem and Roseburg were also short enough and are also out. Others include Talyani, Mange All, Homage, Clon Brulee, Faithful Creek, Laurence, Melvin the Grate and plenty more at fancier prices.

Currently good at Newmarket with a mostly dry week forecast.

Looks like Breden, Basem (AP fav and 2nd fav), Mange All and Roseburg are out.  Master Carpenter, Earth Drummer, Energia Davos, Express Himself, Educate the 4 E’s still in, and  also thankfully Portage, Man of Harlech and My Dream Boat my three arrows.

I can certainly see why Bronze Angel is popular. Doubt he'd make many trends (without checking) and he's on a higher mark than he's ever won off before but he was good for about 2 stone last time and is only up for 4lb.

With his record in the race as well, he's certainly one I'll be on the right side of.

The My Dream Boat dream still looks to be on though...

There are several trends (from 2014) that would put you off Bronze Angel but he is a double winner and in tremendous form so Bronze Angel is the obvious example of a horse to buck the trends.

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-33
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-7-40
Horses rated 103 or higher: 1-5-50
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 5 handicaps

Benjy if you think he was good for 2 stone have a look at Bronze Angel's last race and Man of Harlech's run under a claimer?

Regarding Bronze Angel, Louis Steward has only two rides to go to lose his 3lb claim, it's going to be tight. I don't see Tregoning giving the ride to another claimer but I could be wrong. Buick rode him at York for some reason. Perhaps he's the option if Steward loses his claim.
It might turn out that the horses latest win might cost him not only the 4lb penalty but a further 3lb from the jockey claim. I know Tregoning would have wanted to get him qualified for the Balmoral Handicap but still, he might regret it yet.

PJay - that is food for thought, he has 6 rides booked in the coming days and a few are for Marcus Tregoning. One that he is down to ride for him has now got Haley up in the race itself, so the plot thickens.

He's simply taking Louis off the ride with this in mind I'd suspect Madhu. If he comes out of today without a winner he should be fine. Close, but fine. He's down for Bronze Angel on Saturday. Frankie down for Gm Hopkins and Tom Marquand for Donncha.

Gosden really screwing over AP punters recently with Breden coming out and all this talk now suggesting Jack Hobbs won't run in the Arc.

Sep 21, 2015 -- 1:43PM, Madhu wrote:

Benjy if you think he was good for 2 stone have a look at Bronze Angel's last race and Man of Harlech's run under a claimer?

I've just watched it again. Might go 3 stone now. You may not rate the claimer on MoH but the respective passages both horses get throughout the race is incomparable.

My Dream Boat price holding up better than I expected... Still easily backable at 33s

For sure Bronze Angel won impressively and definitely one to keep onside but a 4lb t/a, he's lightly raced, may improve for an extra furlong,the prospect of David Probert on board, and the possibility of softer ground (has a round action and hits the ground hard), I think Man of Harlech cant be dismissed and has some value. 3 stone...kin hell. :-0

Benjy-

At least we should agree on one thing, the boost for My Dream Boat and the Clive Cox stable, following the well handicapped Seeking Magic beating Acolyte (3 from 3 on the AW) under a strong ride from Ryan Tate. Cox had two running on placed horses as well today. Will he ride My Dream Boat in the Cambridgeshire and lose his 3lb claim; on a similar line to Louis Steward, I’m not sure how many wins he has left? Is this a plot by Mr Cox?

Mind you, it’s still up in the air with regards to the draw- will they split in 2 or 3 groups (Bronze Angel was in the smaller group of 5 up the middle, where the pace fell apart compared to the far side where it lasted longer, when he won in 2012)?

And where will the pace horses-  Master Carpenter, Brendan Brackan, Sennockian Star, Jacob Black or Resonant- be drawn ?

Sticking with Master Carpenter---will love the strong pace,won the Magnet Cup(like Pasternak in 1997),form behind Intilaaq looking pretty good and stable know how to win a couple of these in a season(Sergeant Cecil).Also GM Hopkins mainly because of the stable and a little EW on Mistiroc,hoping the strong pace will bring more improvement out of him,if he gets in of course.Can never work out the draw in this .

Aye, good to see all Cox's run well today.

Highly likely I'll be adding one or two more following the draw, when we have more idea on the pace angle.

Energia Davos declared but will he run? Is the Oz trip off? Anyone know?

I have added a 'gut feeling' bet on DONNCHA - I like the trainer... and the horse... under performed recently but will give him another chance at 25s.

Love Bronze Angel as well, but my first one up is Sennockian Star. This time last year he was rated 106, but 19 runs later, all over 10, 10 and a half furlongs, and more often than not there at the business end, I think he'll relish the furlong less to travel. Bet him 40's to 48's on here, and 33's with 5 places.

Second bet is Birdman. Bet him last time, in the race won by Bronze Angel, and like the winner that day, Birmdan found all sorts of trouble. He eventually finished third, and he went right into my thoughts for this. With a smoother passage, he might have got up that day, but he comes here only 1lb higher, instead of a potential 4lb rise, so definitely giving him another chance. Bet him 36's to 38's on here, and 33's ew 5 places.

Just hope they both make it now, and I at least get a run for my money.

GL all

no-one give gm hopkins a chance ?

Not for me - Although he did win Silver Cambridgeshire off 9 6... but I still think his slightly extra weight will be his undoing... hasn't really shown anything since Hunt cup... but that's not to say he cant bounce back.

that i imagine is because GMH aimed at Cambs ..ticks a lot of boxes..

Good News on Portage my long range fancy..ground could be coming right..has the class to do the business

It's looking like it'll be on the slow side of good on Saturday given yesterday's rain, & more rain likely to hit track before the race.

Yep. Having backed Portage in his last run in Ireland, think the galloping track/ 9f, will suit him admirably.

Johnnyrant.........Energia will run in Cambridgeshire.

The clerk of course going prediction is that it's going to be Good ground. The major rain has missed Newmarket, and it drains pretty quick there, he thinks good is on the cards.

Have alook again at Portage lto,pushed along at all stages.Perhaps he needs a distance of ground?,but if you have to be pushed around a bend how will he fair when he won't even get a chance to give him a breather as its a straight course!!
Many punters on here go on about Group horses in Handicaps,so you have missed the obvious one?.
Also have look at courses that Cambs winners have won at,very enlightning.
Since 1983 3 horses have won that didn't fall into the obvious stat.2 were trained by Precott,[one of which failed by a short head to be a qualifier],the other 2 failed by less tan 4 lengths to qualify.If you readjust the stalls in results over the years you can see where the bias is.Do some research and all is revealed,and you won't fall into the trap of "class rules",as Eagle Tops punters failed to realise.

Newmarket does drain very quickly so I wouldn't think there will be any soft in it. Bronze Angel would love it quick, last year it was like a road if I remember correctly.

On Gm Hopkins he ran a fine race at Goodwood. Nothing wrong there at all and it's fair to say that this would have been on his mind since.

Good /firm for Bronze Angel in last years race. He then won his next race (The Balmoral H'cap at Ascot) in going officially classed as Heavy.

Both were extremes. Very fast here at Newmarket and the extreme side of heavy at Ascot. He handled them and others didn't. Good opens it up a bit.

Thanks Montoria. I still think it should ride slow side of good. Enough rain has hit and moisture stays in the ground at this time of year with morning dews as well. Bit of cut is what Energia Davos needs so very much hope it is on the slow side.

Fabulous, Sennockian Star is in at Goodwood tomorrow.

Had some serious rain last couple of days. Surprised it's not soft at the moment to be honest.

Interesting that about Bronze Angel and the ground - a year ago he was regarded as a fast ground horse during his career he was taken out when the ground was too slow... but when he went to Ascot Champions day I was surprised he turned up and even more shocked he won on heavy... especially as I normally back him but didn't on that occasion!

I'm not sure why connections had a change of heart about his ground issues... but he clearly goes on the ground whatever it is but I still think he shows his best when its very fast (so hoping its doesn't rain too much)

But as for the race ... with Don't Touch winning as fav in the Ayr Gold Cup I think there is a very strong possibility they will be hit with a double whammy if the fav obliges this weekend...  which seems quite likely in my book especially with the 3lb off his back, which will prove to be vital in a race like this.

Yeah, had clocked that earlier Benjy, will have to bet him now tomorrow.

6.6 current going stick,any more rain on top of that would have gd/sft ground looks likely to be good ground by Saturday with no rain fcast Friday and Saturday,that wouldn't rule Energia fox out as long ss there's no firm in there..

Has nobody got the in form (understatement) Richard Fahey's hugely progressive 3yo THIRD TIME LUCKY on their radar? I can't see past the horse.

He could quite conceivably have won his last 6 races (won 4) but his most striking effort was when winning incredibly easily last time out at Thirsk - in a fast time - despite being heavily eased close home,'Tracked leader, led on bit over 1f out, driven clear, heavily eased closing stages.

There were 3 1/2 lengths back to the secong that day and fully 9 lengths back to the 3rd.

Just how much more did he have up his cuff I wonder???

He picks up a 4lb penalty for Saturday but is due to go up 8lbs in future so is in fact 4lb 'well in'.

He is top on both RPR and Topspeed by my calculations and his Topspeed figure was achieved whilst being 'heavily eased' it is reasonable to assume there is plenty more to come.

I can only assume that he has been ignored because it seemed for a long time it was very unlikely he would get in but with all the defections at the 5 day stage he now sneaks in at the bottom as number 35 of 35 - so there isn't even going to be any need to sweat on a run.

If Jack Garrity were to get the ride that would be the icing on the cake.

I can actually see him going off near enough fav come Saturday.

I have found Nafaqa difficult to fathom, but does possess class, not much in the way of value at current odds, and the ground on the soft side will be an unknown.

Good to see Energia Davos in the field. Great piece of mis-information by the R.Post once again reporting that he would miss the race and run in Australia.

I don't think you can blame the Post. Unless I'm mistaking they were just reporting comments from the trainer, who said he could go either way.

They get far too much consistently wrong though PJ. And if you report something like that, they should then produce a follow up report stating the horse is going to run in the Cambridgeshire. It's hard enough second guessing trainers but the R.Post really doesn't help.

Pleased with the draw for my 3 arrows, My Dream Boat and Man of Harlech being drawn together in stall 3 and 4, not too far away from pacer Master Carpenter (11), and Portage in 28 is has the likes of  Nafaqa (24) and Ifwecan (20)  to his inside. Looks like possibility of 2 groups rather than in some years a small group of 3 up the centre.  Too be honest I am glad my three are meeting Bronze Angel with some give in the ground. Worried about Mick Halford’s form but after Seeking Magic’s win and a few places, and Clive Cox putting up the returning Ryan Tate with his 3lb claim, I can’t believe My Dream Boat is still 25/1. As for Man Of Harlech, he is going to have a stronger ride in having David Probert up, than LTO 2nd to Bronze Angel. Bee lucky.

They were reporting on the below comment from the trainer:
"I am just waiting to hear from Australia to find out if there is enough space for Energia Davos at the International Quarantine Centre at Werribee. If there is he will go into quarantine next week in preparation for the Emirates Stakes. Otherwise he will run in the Betfred Cambridgeshire. He is in tip top form and was only about 85 per cent fit for his easy win at Ascot. I saddled Mull Of Killough to finish second in the Betfred Cambridgeshire three years ago but the two horses are not really that similar. Mully loved the Rowley Mile and would go forward and find another gear when he hit the rising ground. While I am confident after Ascot that Energia Davos will handle the Rowley Mile, he is a complacent worker at home and is not flashy at all."

I know but there was no follow up story to that, leaving punters in the dark.

We have been fortunate to have Montoria who appears to own a leg in Energia Davos, and with JCH  does use Twitter to keep people informed, not sure what happened in this case as I don't use Twitter. Energia Davos slightly reminds me of the plot with Formal Decree considering the booking of Jamie Spencer but I think as a 7yo he has age statistically against him- last one the dual winner Rambo's Hall.

Sep 24, 2015 -- 1:01PM, johnnyrant wrote:

I know but there was no follow up story to that, leaving punters in the dark.

Are you blaming the RacingPost or the trainer? It's extremely possible the RP found out the same time we did.

The R.Post. I would have thought they could have found the time to contact the trainer & ask whether the Australia trip was on or not. They are increasingly lazy with their journalism.

Pipedreamer...who's your bet in the race?

Unoriginal but i'm backing Portage..only had the 6 runs and has the perfect profile with accompanied prep for the race so 10/1 is worth it under NRNB given he was just 16s ante-post. Quote from Halford after he won his Maiden last season below...


Halford has some nice two-year-olds to go to war with this season and Portage created a favourable impression when finishing a running-on second to East India on his Curragh debut on Saturday.

In what is traditionally a red-hot maiden, won by Australia 12 months ago as well as New Approach and his sire Teofilo in the recent past, the Sheikh Mohammed-owned colt shaped with plenty of promise despite running green and breaking slowly from the stalls.

Halford said of the 70,000 guineas purchase: "He's a horse I really like and he could be very smart. I'm really looking forward to him as he's a big, scopey sort and that first run will have brought him on plenty.

"He wouldn't run against Toscanini, but he ran great considering he was green and we're all excited about him at home."

Think Earth Drummer is the answer when all things considered, stats suggest a 5yr old 12/1 or less as far as I can deduce. Ran a furlong too long last time 9F is his distance currently. visor on, O'Meara trained and Tudhope up. Only negative is that his is drawn 35 anyone know the draw bias here. Either way think he is primed for this. Do see third time lucky and portage as main dangers should be a cracker

probably Know The Bias After This Race

Madhu.....own nothing of Energia, but have The Twisler with JCH.

Energia is spot on at home and will run a good race, dare I say it, he should be there or thereabouts.

Nafaqa @ 25 is my main bet.

Have also had small bets on Halation @ 28 and Bronze Angel @ 11

GL

Well Tim a 5 year old on your stats.Well just exactly what stats are those!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.One 5 year old winner in this race since 1973!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??.Suggest you get a new set of specs,and stats.Whatever,best of luck anyway!!.

Also had a small bet on Forgotten hero @ 48 so thats 4 agaisnt the field

2010    Credit Swap    5    8-07    Jim Crowley    Michael Wigham    14/1    1:53.87
2011    Prince of Johanne    5    8-09    John Fahy    Tom Tate    40/1    1:49.14
2012    Bronze Angel    3    8-08    William Buick    Marcus Tregoning    9/1    1:47.73
2013    Educate    4    9-09    Johnny Murtagh    Ismail Mohammed    8/1 F    1:51.05
2014    Bronze Angel    5    8-08    Louis Steward    Marcus Tregoning    14/1    1:48.68

Uncle not sure where you get your info but 3 5year old horses have won this in the last 5 years that will do for me
as you asked stats above

^ Think you mean Pipedreamer - I never make any comments that are wrong.

Am I right in suggesting a high draw is difficult to overcome? Slightly tempers my enthusiasm for Abseil who I can see running well.

Yep apologies,brains going.The stats are changing.I bet a lot of those in the bottom half 0f the race didnt think they'd get in the race,how many really fancy their chances.The Draw depends on Stalls being stands side or far side.
The racing Post tells us that the stalls are "inside".Once again a total lack of info,site full of everything bar info,e.g.cant tel you in the Golden Mile at Goodwood over the years that the bottom horse is actually a reserve,no info.
Spanish Don won on the stands side in 2004 Drawn 3,but the rails had been pushed back,[the diamond screen on the far side was further away,must have been the old draw 8 or 13,which equates to where Quinlan Terry was in 88 and Leysh was in 85.
Basically except for 2011 when they all came over to the stands side,the winner has raced on the far side.If its reported as "stalls far side course" high numbers could be ok.A description of "stands side course wouldn't be good for high numbers.
There is a pacemaker in 20 so who knows,besides the year Supaseus won it hadn't rained for weeksyet there was a distict bias on the far rail,Strange?!.
Suggest you look at any head on pictures of the course on the Morning Line,should be a guide and as in the past,if Jim Magrath has reservations about your horse its been wise over the years to take notice.Best of luck to all.

sorry uncle wasn't having a go at you or pipe as pipe says stats change a lot and everyone interprets them their own way for me I am going with 5year olds with weight between 8-7 and 9st which leaves me with Earth Drummer, Abseil and Musaddas and thus have backed them accordingly albeit with 5 places.

The mile and half race ran at Newmarket resulted in the horses finishing stands side which may be a pointer to the stands side being favoured tomorrow.

Portage is the trends horse, he'll do for me.

Tough race...

Ive gone Portage, Educate, Express Himself, Examiner, Franklin D

Tough race Kipper,more like impossible I think.

However,I have narrowed it down to six horses and in no particular order,

Musaddas - not sure will get home
Firefighter - Bit on the sharp side I feel
Forgotten Hero - As above
Ginger Jack - Will back each way
Obsidian - Will back each way
Polar Forest - Don`t fancy

Will back the two above and be over the moon if there is any return.

The race I found most difficult to solve, was the Ayr Gold Cup, but eventually found the winner,
the Cambridgeshire I thought was pretty easy, the winner is nether GOLD or Silver, but the other one.

In these kind of races I can usually make a case for quite a few horses. But not this time.
Can't see beyond my initial thoughts :-

Bronze Angel
Portage

Good luck to all players. Should be an exciting race.

Just had another look and quite like Portage but wondering if the high draw will affect his chance.

Seems a bit of a strange thing to say and given the size of the field (and the race itself) I'm sure there'll be a reasonable pace but there is a lack of obvious front runners. Makes it rather difficult to add my others...

Going to add Birdman, to Bronze Angel and My Dream Boat.

GL all.

EDUCATE yourselfs and add drummer boy and the bronze for a third

My three in order of precedence

BRONZE ANGEL
EDUCATE
DONNCHA

Will add one more in the morning if something catches my eye.

Good Luck

GENETICALLY MODIFIED (HOOD)WINS WITH ITS DICK OUT

g m hopkins for me

Portage has been put up by Pricewise!!!

Has got no chance of winning now

Must admit, anything Pricewise puts up this Flat season, dampens enthusiasm. Is Tom Segal still on a long, losing run, or has he managed a winner in the last few weeks?

Franklin D for Haley Turner(The AW boys still love ya) must be chanced also, nice draw and a fairy tale ending.

Think pricewise had a winner fairly recently

It wouldn't put me off unless I hadn't placed the bet yet tbh

Magical Memory, Muhaarar, Don't Touch and a few others... can Portage make it an amazing year for 3 year olds?

Bit of a shame that Pricewise has jumped on though - but went through the stats Portage does fit the trends really well, only let down by the draw (28) ...

But as so many horses don't fit the trends does give Bronze Angel a serious shout despite the high rating.

Bronze angel himself meets a lot of my trends. Weight and rating being the two (or one really) that obviously let him down. Surprised he's not going to go off fav.

That pillock couldn’t tip a saucer – why, oh why pick, our Portage, if I hadn’t backed A/p I would get out but today the luck git might strike! Weigh anchor.
Tipster: Pricewise  Tips:     882
Win / Loss:     85-17-780
Balance:     -97.00
Yield:     -1.1%
Jan     Feb     Mar     Apr     May     Jun     Jul     Aug     Sep     Oct     Nov     Dec
25.00     130.00 -40.0027.00 -203.50-350.00-237.50-297.50    -95.00

Found two more to back each way.My Dream Boat and Master The World.

Backing four now,feast or famine on the cards.

on Express Himself @25s E/W
and 30s on here.
   GL ALL

Earth drummer and gabe kaka

spinoza1 good call mate, sensational.

Yep. Well done spinoza. Again

You've got to admire Fahey, he's some trainer !! Especially in these big handicaps.

Iris

You were  right - a 3yo does it again !
Just a pity it wasn't Portage. Draw didn't help him at all .

......and the curse of Pricewise

......and the curse of Pricewise Cry.

Ditto kin ditto.... kin ditto. R's hole.

FELTFAIR

unlucky !

Yeah that Master the World Elsworth connection, unlucky Feltfair mate

Forget form, just look for a 3 year old and back it...  But winner was very gutsy... thought Master of the World should have won really unlucky to lose just on the head action... but well done backers... and unlucky Master backers... and also favourite (Portage) who was clearly on the wrong side and did well to finish where he was.

...  but with 3 fields it was aways going to be the case of one side getting some bias... and it was all where the winner was... As for Bronze angel penalty cost dear!


but hey ho for 3 year olds!

Have a good record over the years finding the winner of this race. Not this year; didn't even find one to place Should have known it wasn't my year when Breden was pulled out (having backed him AP). Well done winners.

A garbage race...

^ what sort of comment is that ?

I wonder if Master The World shied at the shadow of the diamond screen?.It cost Habibti? a win in the breeders Cup years ago,pity they can't erect some plastic hoarding so that the edge of the shadow is disappated.
A 2000 guineas runner not good enough to win a classic but nearly wins this.Similar to a few in the eighties e.g. Leysh at 33-1.Portage beaten here will probably like others beaten in this race before now go on to win at least a group 3.
The long term stats were blown apart with this unexposed horse.But will unexposed horses in handicaps especially 3 year olds get in these sort of races .In the recent past all these races needed a very high rating,so it could have been a one off?

There are to my eye only two well weighted statistics that would put anyone off the winner. They certainly did me when viewing LTO performance pror to race-

10 of 10 winners had won or placed at class 2 or higher
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 13+ runners

The 2nd had the Mr Elsworth race connection, and champion jockey up in hindsight.

Funny that Madhu - because I had the exactly the same thought when going through the stats ... and I felt  ... rather than the Class 2 or higher (being a factor - it was his beating of Polarisation btw) it was the big field factor which would be the undoing for Third Time Lucky

but field split into 3 groups was drawn on the right side and was racing quite prominently, don't think that stat was really tested in this race... think the race unfolded well for him under the circumstances...

IrisDeBalme- I also had long term reservations that he would get in on his 3yo rating even with a penalty. I looked at his LTO on a few occasions as well. Portage can be forgiven the run, Man of Harlech ran a tremendous race on the wrong ground, and My Dream Boat went across to the other side. Too be honest I would have been more disappointed if the 2nd had won with the known Elsworth connection but the fact is he was so out of form-

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 96+ last time

I just did not have enough arrows for hunches.

Yes your right Madhu...

"I just did not have enough arrows for hunches"

perfectly said... it was tough race...

Montoria    25 Sep 15 08:01 
Madhu.....own nothing of Energia, but have The Twisler with JCH.

Energia is spot on at home and will run a good race, dare I say it, he should be there or thereabouts.


Wasn't .

But then next time out - wins at 40/1 !!!  Hope you were on Montoria and