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Nightfly
25 Aug 15 09:42
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Date Joined: 09 Oct 02
| Topic/replies: 762 | Blogger: Nightfly's blog
one of my fav betting races of the year...providing goodish ground

at this stage..very interested in PORTAGE 16/1 and last i read trainer had this on his radar.

Any other thoughts on the race welcome

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Replies: 144
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 25 Aug 15 13:35
At the end of his 3yo season Gosden's Breden beat Ajman Bridge (now rated 105) with also Miss Marjorie and Aussie reigns both rated higher now in behind. Ok that was a steadily run race but he quickened up well and looked the sort of horse who could develop into a useful handicapper or possibly  a listed/group class horse. He then missed last season and re-appeared at Windsor start of August where he was just beaten by the 3yo Bishop's Leap and Havlin wasn't too hard on the horse after travelling well. Gosden has done well in this race and if he gets fast ground then looks an interesting one to me.
By:
Madhu
When: 25 Aug 15 21:58
Was on My Dream Boat (BF odds 40.64) straight after he won impressively going away at York last week. As a 3yo a 5lb penalty for that gives him a good chance to get in. Have also backed Man of Harlech (40.22) and Portage (18.1). Connections of all three have hinted the Cambridgshire as possible targets. I would be interested in Breden at a price but 25’s looks a bit skinny right now. He also beat Top Notch Tonto (92) at Newmarket receiving 9lb just before he became a Group horse. He looks like a plot horse so I might get involved.
By:
Nightfly
When: 26 Aug 15 09:37
def interested in Breden.. thanks for the heads up..MDBoat..must come into calcs.

Not sure Portage, who is pencilled in for Irish version on Sunday...Not a traditional route..dont know what to make of that.
By:
Madhu
When: 26 Aug 15 21:12
A traditional route used to be the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury but in recent years it has been much closer time wise to the Cambridgeshire. Regarding the Irish version, Halfords pair are at the head of the market for the 100 grand race (12/1 bar those two)and if Portage wins that he would be a strong favourite to carry a penalty off present mark of 98 at Newmarket as a progressive 3yo just month or so later (27 days).
By:
Montoria
When: 30 Aug 15 04:28
Keep Energia Davos in mind.
By:
Madhu
When: 30 Aug 15 11:56
Energia Davos is entered at Ascot this coming Friday with Jamie Spencer already booked to ride. The improvement  Jane Chapple-Hyam got out of  6yo Mull Of Killough, who gave 10lb when 2nd to Bronze Angel in 2012, the line of form with Elhaame last August, and I guess The Twisler’s win  would give you some hope but  the last 7yo to win the Cambridgeshire was Rambo's Hall over 20 years ago. It would be some training performance. Good luck Montoria.
The weights are out next week- I keep forgetting it is an early closing race so like JCH after The Twisler’s win I have been talking about penalties rather than revised ratings. My Dream Boat is up to 101 so will have every chance to get in now. Man Of Harlech is entered in the Dubai Duty Free a week before but he won after a 6 day gap last time out. I presume Portage will get a penalty after hosing up today! Dreamer, nothing but a dreamer…….
By:
johnnyrant
When: 30 Aug 15 21:55
Any handicap rating gurus know if Laurence has any chance of getting in the race?
By:
Madhu
When: 30 Aug 15 23:43
johnnyrant- I would think Laurence will be reassessed on his win on Saturday, up from his present rating of 85 but even if he got a new mark in the early 90’s when the weights are published, he might find it tough to get in because of the 5lb Weight For Age and the amount of older horses rated in the late 90’s and over 100 that run in these top handicaps these days. Last year a 3yo needed to be rated 98 to get in. It could drastically cut up? He is in the Dubai Duty Free a week before but even with a 5lb penalty he is not guaranteed to get a run in that!
By:
johnnyrant
When: 31 Aug 15 09:09
Thanks Madhu
By:
Facts
When: 31 Aug 15 11:15
I backed Portage yesterday . Ran ok and beat the rest easily enough. Note he was beaten by another last time out winner and had won over CD.
By:
Madhu
When: 31 Aug 15 12:54
Facts- I think you are right, time may tell the revitalised mare (Group 3 placed as a 3yo) that beat Portage may be a lot better than a rating of 95 after backing up from winning at Galway  over an extended mile off 86 where she beat Brian Ellison’s Baraweez with the first three  6lengths clear of the rest. Baraweez won 5 days later at Galway and has now won three good class handicaps in Ireland, albeit over 7f. Also the older horses in 3rd and 5th yesterday are fairly decent on their day. Portage is still lightly raced and appears lazy to me, pushed along a fair way out but I like the way his head goes lower on occasions rather than higher and gasping for air. I think there is a lot of improvement in him on better ground.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 31 Aug 15 13:24
Portage was pushed along throughout in the race yesterday,on ground similar to his Ascot victory.This is not a good sign,but maybe he needs another furlong to get on top.
Munaasser has the form,and a pull with G.M.Hopkins,but the biggest negative is M.Stoute for this race.His record in handicaps at this 3 day meeting is very bad.He ha d a handicapper short headed in 20005 and Nooshman was beaten a neck in this race by Katie Nowaitee.He won this race in 1977 with Intermission,but he'd only had it a short while,being transferred from Jeremy Tree.
Ihad read some stats for the 3 day meet in the late eighties highlighting the poor record in handicaps of Stoute and Dunlop.Their record has not improved,its a question of habits or the way they train?.Dunlop never won the Stewards cup either to my memory?.
Michael Stoute has had a lot of classy horses run in this race.Classic Role was backed down from 12 to 6 in this race and beaten,he won a group 2 in France next time out,[yes another group winner beaten in a handicap!!] He had the Aga Khans Shaylan in here in 1999,and finished down the field.He had a good handicapper Lang Shining run unplaced in this race.
But stats are their to be broken,Munaaser ran second in the Silver Cambs and like Portage has the breeding to pull it off,but i just tyhought i'd mention these things,good luck anyway.
By:
PJay
When: 02 Sep 15 15:43
I presume Munaaser and Express Himself have received favourable mentions from their trainers in tomorrow's Racing Post? That or Tom Segal has chosen them - his Cambridgshire ante-post selections are in tomorrow's paper.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 02 Sep 15 17:18
If so, it really is a poor effort by all those involved at the R.Post. Wasn't that long ago when you could read Pricewise on a Saturday morning, get to your local high st bookies for opening time & avail yourself of the prices. You could also get on at the advertised prices online. Now… prices are never held & aside from the R.Post insiders, no one else can get the price. Makes a mockery of the whole thing.
By:
PJay
When: 02 Sep 15 18:45
I'm really not sure johnnyrant. Perhaps it has nothing to do with the RP but they do have a Cambridgeshire piece out tomorrow. If it is RP related I'd guess it's more to do with a favourable trainer comment than Segal, but we'll see. Perhaps they were advised elsewhere.
By:
PJay
When: 02 Sep 15 18:57
Wasn't Tom
By:
betilyerded
When: 02 Sep 15 20:29
Bllody Segal.
Had Munaaser and Earth Drummer on my short list and looking at the collapse on both of their prices Im guessing he has put them up tomorrow.

Drives me mad - surely the bookies wont even have taken any money on them yet and still they cut them.
AAAAAAAAGHHHHH.
By:
PJay
When: 02 Sep 15 20:39
Tom picked Breden and Earth Drummer. Munaaser started moving earlier today.
By:
Madhu
When: 02 Sep 15 21:45
Pricewise couldn't tip a wheelbarrow at present.
Jan      Feb       Mar       Apr       May     Jun       Jul         Aug    
25.00     130.00 -40.00    27.00   -203.50 -350.00 -237.50  -297.50    
   
If he had tipped mine I would of got ASAP, am grateful he has tipped others and am happy at the possibility of a better price.  Win or lose it also makes sense in the long run.
Tips:    849
Win / Loss:    83-17-749
Balance:    -2.00
Yield:    -0%
By:
Madhu
When: 02 Sep 15 21:45
# out
By:
PJay
When: 03 Sep 15 16:05
Anyone got the trainer quotes for this from today's RP?
By:
ashleigh
When: 04 Sep 15 15:26
energia davos an eyercatching trial after 6 months off.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 04 Sep 15 15:28
well done Montoria. What a great trial he ran today. Looks value still at 33-1 ew. He will need some give in the ground though and for it not to ride rattling quick on the Rowley Mile.
By:
Montoria
When: 04 Sep 15 16:49
Cheers Johnny..............mine n J C-H betting slip is HEAVY !!
By:
Montoria
When: 05 Sep 15 21:37
Energia = Oz
By:
Montoria
When: 08 Sep 15 13:08
^^^^^^^^^Hold that thought^^^^^^^^^^

The Oz race is over entered and a ballot will now take place to see who can run.......odds are approx 50-50.
By:
bazzar
When: 12 Sep 15 16:25
Anyone know how much has BRONZE ANGEL been penalised for CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP, please?
By:
Madhu
When: 12 Sep 15 16:35
bazzar- 4lb penalty up to 108
By:
Facts
When: 12 Sep 15 17:19
Can't believe I missed it today ! Cry
By:
bazzar
When: 12 Sep 15 18:44
Thank you MADHU.
By:
Facts
When: 14 Sep 15 10:09
Bronze Angel

Has to be on the shortlist. 14/1 taken.
By:
Madhu
When: 15 Sep 15 00:51
Oh the trials and tribulations of ante-post punting……reflecting on my arrows-

My Dream Boat (101) is down to run in the listed Fortune Stakes at Sandown on Wednesday along with other 3yo’s  entered at Newmarket in Decorated Hero (did I read he is to be scratched?)(97), Prince Gagarin (105), Room Key (102), and against the returning Elm Park, and older horses Gabrial and Fire Ship (also entered in the Cambridgeshire). Last year this race was won by the 4yo Tenor, who subsequently 10 days later came 5th to Bronze Angel off 110 carrying a 7lb penalty with Joe Doyle claiming 5lb. The gap between the two races is the same this time round and if he were to win he would have to run off 108, although I guess he could be ridden by Cox’s good apprentice Ryan Tate. He had an excellent strike-rate in 2014 and is on the comeback from breaking his leg in a gallops fall earlier this year, and probably does not have many more winners left before he loses his 3lb claim. Is this a potential Clive Cox plot? If so I’m onto it!

Portage (98) was entered and pulled out of the 1m2f “Northfields" Handicap on Sunday.  Does this mean all roads lead to Newmarket? Although time may tell he might have struggled to beat David Wachman’s progressive 3yo Torcedor who won from a poor draw – incidentally Harasava,  Dermot Weld’s 3yo filly who previously outstayed the latter at Galway (7l clear of the rest) must be a good thing this Thursday at Listowel off 85?

Getting back to the chances of Luca Cumani’s Laurence, I see that the Dubai Duty Free Handicap this Saturday has cut up so much that even as a 3yo off 90 he has managed by all accounts to slip in nicely off 8-4, however, if it comes up too soft his participation is unlikely (will definitely back on the day if good ground).  He is a very late foal (26May12) and seems to have got back to being progressive, winning a good prize at Beverley after having previously finished strongly in a slowly run race behind a subsequent York Ebor meeting winner. At present he is at 77 in the Cambridgeshire list and would need 35+ to pull out, although after tomorrows Forfeit Stage (15th September) he could move up considerably higher. If then he were to win comfortably at Newbury, and had a chance to get in the Cambridgeshire off 96 carrying a 4lb penalty, I would think Luca Cumani, given his long wait since his last Cambridgeshire success and being a part-owner, might allow him to take his place just 7 days later but I still can’t see him getting in off 92 without a penalty. 40/1 based on those imponderables is a no no right now. Along similar lines, Cymro (off 96) is an interesting 3yo at 62 on the list; he again is a late foal. As tipped up on harchibald’s thread, Richard Kingscote is already booked for to ride in the Dubai Duty Free on Saturday, and it could be argued he backed up after just 10 days when he nearly won his maiden as a 2yo on his 3rd start. Interestingly, his half-sister Madam Macie won 2 from 4 races in a space of 24 days in 2012. Win (and a double penalty) or run well he would have much the better chance of running in the two races given the likely ground conditions at Newbury and I think 50’s on him is better value, and rather than backing him right now for the DDF, I have had a punt at 57.88 in the hope of a clockwork Universe coming to my aid.

A key trend is 8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out and a whole heap of horses fail on this account. I agree Facts, Bronze Angel won well on Saturday, a fine prep and Marcus Tregoning’s gelding must have a real good chance of a historical third success, however, I think under a stronger ride (or did Rob Hornby see the fast finishing winner?) my other arrow Man Of Harlech could quite possibly have won at Doncaster. MoH was a quite a late foal (14Apr11) and is lightly raced for a 4yo.  I think this Dansili  (9.4f) gelding half-brother to smart/Group horses has much more improvement with a bit more ease in the ground. Cambidgeshire trends/statistics wise, his trainer has what could be considered a poor record in the race (likewise Michael Stoute (already pointed out by pipedreamer earlier on thread) and Saeed Bin Suroor who have fancied runners), and he has yet to beat a big field (14+) or win over 10f but neither did Bronze Angel before his 1st win as a 3yo.

Portage goes on any ground and in the likelihood of fast ground he would obviously be a better bet but if its soft Man Of Harlech, Cymro and My Dream Boat  would all have a good chance in the cavalry charge.

Regarding Breden’s chances another two key trends (from 2014 but applied last year) - 10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that year and 9 of 10 winners had won a race that year (7 had won 2+ races that season) - put me off his chances really and he now makes limited appeal ante-post at 14’s. If he is hammered on the day I will back him to cover bets though.
By:
Madhu
When: 16 Sep 15 11:30
Looks like some interesting horses scratched in Munaaser, Keble (was hinted at in RP preview), Kelini, and unfortunately Cymro.
By:
Madhu
When: 18 Sep 15 17:41
The 3yo Hathal’s decent performance in the listed Dubai Duty Free Cup at Newbury today augars well for My Dream Boat, who was withdrawn the other day from Elm Park’s stakes race just after the forfeit stage for the Cambridgeshire. Ascription, 2nd to Cable Bay in the Group 3 John of Gaunt Stakes and not beaten far in the Lennox Stakes (Group 2)), and the decent Dark Emerald gives it some substance. My Dream Boat (101, 8-10) at 31 on the list is guaranteed a place. The available 33’s for a progressive 3yo trained by the shrewd Clive Cox will look massive on the day.
By:
Madhu
When: 18 Sep 15 19:47
Get Knotted

He came a  3rd to My Dream Boat and Hathal at York, and runs in the Ayrshire Handicap this Saturday off a low weight. I think if you forgive his last run he is overpriced on BF Sportsbook at 14’s.  Looks a good e/w to me.

Not one to see geese as swans, Mr Dods said after his CD win: "He was given a great ride by Andrew, who wanted to leave it late because of his quirks, but I think he's a fair horse.  "To be fair to the horse he's never been a problem at home and it took us a bit by surprise what happened at Newcastle first time out. "Hopefully we're getting those issues ironed out now and he's done it well today. Hopefully he's still improving. "We'll probably give him an entry in something like the Cambridgeshire and we'll just try to pick the right tracks. "He might win a nice race before the season is out."
By:
unclepuncle
When: 19 Sep 15 17:13
When the entries first came out I had my eye on Nafaqa but didn't have a bet as I had no idea if this was the plan. He was a good 2 year old and started the season as a potential classic contender. He has run some decent races on the Rowley mile so the track is a plus.
He came back from a summer break to run last of 3 at Doncaster but he has been left in at the latest forfeit stage and has been shortening a bit so I'm thinking he may have been laid out for it. I'll wait till the 5 day decs and then have a bet.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 19 Sep 15 18:32
Anyone know if Energia Davos is going to run, or go to Australia instead?
By:
Benjy
When: 19 Sep 15 21:15
Nafaqa does have some good 2yo form but he's going to be 3lb wrong here isn't he, which isn't ideal...

As has been said, surely My Dream Boat doesn't go off 33s here. My only play at this stage, looked very good LTO.

Not your typical Cambridgeshire winner profile but Birdman is one I'm keeping an eye on. 33s now but don't see him being too well fancied so happy to leave it and hopes he's similarly priced on the day.

GL.
By:
lead on
When: 20 Sep 15 10:50
Master Carpenter for me...strong pace will be ideal...could be handicapped to his ability but I think there's another big race in him.However I'll wait until tomorrow and see if he appears in the decs.
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