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PeteTheBloke
09 Aug 15 18:16
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 3,696 | Blogger: PeteTheBloke's blog
Has this got an "official" thread yet? I can't see one.

Treve to get  Triple Crown of Arcs?

Golden Horn to stamp the 3yo form?

Jack Hobbs - Allweather / handicapper to all-conquering hero?

Someone say something sensible, before I get carried away.
Pause Switch to Standard View ** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
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Report Figgis October 5, 2015 2:36 PM BST
If Treve had been beaten in the Prix Vermeille I'm sure afterwards it would've been said no 5yo had ever won the race, no horse had ever won the race twice, Treve was beaten in the race last year and she was only using this year's race as a prep so wouldn't have been at peak, therefore no way should she have been a 2/5 chance. As it happened she bolted up so none of this was mentioned. However, just because she won so easily still didn't prove whether she was the right price or not.
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 2:36 PM BST
Flintshire gve 9ibs to GH worth 6 lengths.He was beaten by just 2 lengths.Thats the point.Take it or leave it figgis.
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 2:39 PM BST
I can't understand your argument in your last post figgis.Care to try again?
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 2:52 PM BST
still didn't prove whether she was the right price or not.

I think this is what your point was about. Am I right?


A price can't be proved to be right or wrong either before or after a race but it can be judged to be so. And doing so before the race is what this betting game boils down to, does it not figgis?
Report Figgis October 5, 2015 2:52 PM BST
The argument is that when analysing a result yes some things can be learned but when a short priced favourite is beaten the explanation afterwards is always that the price was wrong or too short and reasons are put forward, yet when the favourite goes in it is simply accepted that the right horse won and price either isn't mentioned or it is even suggested the fav should've actually been shorter.

If you look at a race as a puzzle to be solved then this is how things are viewed. But the truth is everything has a chance and a price and whether a horse wins or loses one result alone can never prove whether a horse was the correct price or not.
Report Figgis October 5, 2015 3:02 PM BST
If Treve had won then I guarantee that afterwards nobody would try to argue that no matter that she won she was still too short a price. If she had won than I'd have won too but it still wouldn't prove that I'd got a value bet, no more than a loser proves a horse was poor value.
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 3:14 PM BST
when a short priced favourite is beaten the explanation afterwards is always that the price was wrong

Is it? Who by

But the truth is everything has a chance and a price and whether a horse wins or loses one result alone can never prove whether a horse was the correct price or not.


I agree. But you can still judge.

If Treve had won then I guarantee that afterwards nobody would try to argue that no matter that she won she was still too short a price

You can't speak for everyone fggis.  I would have still said that the price wan't right.
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 3:16 PM BST
If I am offered 4/6 about odds or evens at roulette I would still argue that was the wrong price no matter what the outcome. Using your judgement is what we do, or it should be.
Report Figgis October 5, 2015 3:26 PM BST
Is it? Who by

On most threads on here containing a short priced loser.

I would have still said that the price wan't right.

Well I've never seen you argue that point after a short price winner, maybe that it was too short for you to want to back it, but never that the price was wrong.

If a horse is correctly priced at even money (which can never actually be proved but just for argument's sake) but gets beat then the result post mortem more often concludes that the horse was overrated or underpriced or there were warning signs beforehand that should've been heeded. When in reality such horses will get beat 50% of the time, so it's hardly an unexpected outcome.
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 3:38 PM BST
[Well I've never seen you argue that point after a short price winner, maybe that it was too short for you to want to back it, but never that the price was wrong.


I've been on here since 2001 and apparently I have made 2589 replies in that time. Have you read them all? If you have, thank you.Your powers in recalling what I have written in that time are a lot better than mine.
Report Figgis October 5, 2015 3:46 PM BST
I said I've never seen it, not that you hadn't done it. If Treve had won in the style she did last year then what were the odds of anybody who opposed her posting after the event that yes she won but she should have been a bigger price? I'd say about 50/1. It would make the Treve layer look a sore loser so it's unlikely to happen, still doesn't mean they wouldn't have been right though.
Report Figgis October 5, 2015 4:00 PM BST
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10019000/anthony-oppenheimer-keen-to-run-golden-horn-in-breeders-cup-turf

Owner-breeder Anthony Oppenheimer remains "fairly keen" to give his stunning Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe hero Golden Horn one last hurrah in the Breeders' Cup Turf.


One race too far, anybody? Wink
Report impossible123 October 5, 2015 4:26 PM BST
Sheikh Mohammed (Godolphin) owns 50% of Golden Horn!
Report Figgis October 5, 2015 4:30 PM BST
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/timeform-sectional-debrief-special-arc-weekend-2015-5102015

The Timeform sectional methodology suggests Treve should have finished upsides Golden Horn given the pace and positioning. As a Treve backer looking for any possible excuses I'm still not convinced after taking everything else into account but interesting nonetheless.
Report Sandown October 5, 2015 4:31 PM BST
A  value bet is a good bet whether it wins or loses.

A  poor value bet is a bad whether it wins or loses.
Report Steamship October 5, 2015 11:49 PM BST
A thread yesterday asked if Treve was a banker I wrote no as I thought something would beat her. I had figured  her price in my reply, so to me she was too short to back even if she won. I did not have a bet on the race as I could not find value on anything I liked. It doesn't matter what won I could not find a bet  which means I thought Golden Horn was not value at 6-1.
Report Figgis October 6, 2015 1:02 AM BST
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake

A couple of good points made By Kevin Blake. I said myself that it was a good ride by Dettori but there is something in what he says here. One of the reasons it seemed so praiseworthy was simply that we're so used to most jockeys having a sheeplike mentality and following the pack instead of adapting to the pace of a race and being proactive if necessary.

I also agree with his other point about the tactics employed by Treve's connections. Not that it necessarily would've made any difference to the winning result but it was piss poor all round really. I've said it before but is it really so difficult to get a pacemaking jockey to execute the job he's (presumably) been instructed to do?
Report A_T October 6, 2015 7:56 AM BST
Sheikh Mohammed (Godolphin) owns 50% of Golden Horn!

Now we know why Jack Hobbs didn't run
Report sageform October 6, 2015 8:23 AM BST
The Dettori ride on GH was very good but it was clearly a well thought through plan involving owner and trainer as well and Dettori didn't have to do anything exceptional to win. Smullen on the other hand beat Dettori in a race where 2 good fillies were as evenly matched as it is possible to be and he won while Dettori lost.
Report Sandown October 6, 2015 11:04 AM BST
A couple of good points made By Kevin Blake.



The truth is perhaps that she isn’t quite as good as she once was and while she almost certainly retained enough ability to have gone very close in this year’s Arc in a more truly-run race under a more efficient ride, it was largely the decisions that her rider and the rider of her pacemaker made on the day that restricted her potential to make history and that is very unfortunate for all concerned.

KB spot on. This is the heart of it for Treve supporters.Her win in the Vermeille disguised the fact that she may not only not run to her Personal Best (PB) but that she might have trouble running to her 2014 level. Nevertheless, she showed enough to prove that if she hadn't been held up and run without cover, thereby forfeiting a lot of her chance (when on the day and ground Longchamp had a pace bias to front end runners), she might have gone very close to winning.That strip of fresh ground along the rail proved the place to be all day.
Report Sandown October 6, 2015 11:07 AM BST
Don't forget the statements from the trainer and paddock observers that Treve was bigger, stronger than ever before. Expectations were high that she might improve even. People see what they want to see.
Report Sandown October 6, 2015 11:14 AM BST
Top Speed rating for GH is 89 (which seems very low) and he has an RPR of 127. Treve has been given an RPR of 120. Last year's Arc  she had 126 and 2013 Arc 131. Shows how slow the pace was and how favoured the front end horses were as a result.
Report Figgis October 6, 2015 12:20 PM BST
Led, set moderate pace,

The formbook comments for Treve's pacemaker.

Could it be that everyone who watched the race knew there was a moderate pace being set except the bloke on top of the horse? Were these in fact the instructions from Head, despite having a mare that needs help to settle and possesses a very good turn of foot? Which apart from being baffling tactics would beg the question why have a pacemaker at all? You would imagine with so much at stake tactics weren't just scribbled on the back of a **** packet at the last minute and if the jockey didn't do as instructed why did the jockey and trainer not refer to the lack of pace in the race afterwards?

Do French jockeys actually know much about pace at all? Maybe that's why so many of their races are run at a crawl and as Fabre has said himself many times he comes over here when he wants a decent pace for his horses Wink
Report ffs October 6, 2015 5:23 PM BST
Before I read the rest of this excellent thread,

One point for Figgis to consider, she may have won her Prix Diane on G/F, but she's had obvious foot problems since then and to my eye she wasn't letting herself down fully on the very fast finishing straight.

Also, big thumbs up to whomever speculated a deal had been made for Godolphin to stand Golden Horn, meant he was going to run even if conditions levelled up between him and Jack Hobbs.
Report Figgis October 6, 2015 5:31 PM BST
Well if she didn't handle the ground she did remarkably well to finish the race markedly faster than those in front of her and nearly everything else behind. Finishing splits that most fast ground horses would be pushed to better.
Report ffs October 6, 2015 5:43 PM BST
Re: The ride Golden Horn got - well the winner always looks good - but it's no brilliant solution to the wide draw.

In his last races, Golden Horn was sent on, held up and took keen hold, went on. That surely influenced the decision also.

But the fact is, holding wide and tracking across does take up precious energy vis-a-vis the jump New Bay and Flintshire got into pretty much the same spot, What is it worth ? Take the air resistance of 3f alone, climbing, and your old friend Pythagaros ! ... maybe a couple of lengths ?

Kingston Hill was passed a tired horse, Taghrooda never got as handy a spot, but no question Flintshire and New Bay benefited from the draw and the position they held from the start.

Treve has no excuses, Thierry Jarnet's jockeyship was par at worst, she was ridden in her customary manner and had she been the best on the ground she'd have won - had every chance.

I said very early in this thread that if the standard was Flintshire + 2L, being how I rated Treve, then I saw a lot of contenders.

Her 3yo season was spectacular, but just another in recent years to go from Derby (Oaks) to Arc.

et fin.
Report Can't Catch Me October 6, 2015 5:46 PM BST
Figgis, she might have been fastest by miliseconds... but she only gains about a length on Free Eagle in the whole finishing straight, so Im not sure the times prove she liked the ground.

None of us can prove anything, but I've always been of the opinion she is a better horse on softer and Sunday did nothing to alter that. However her biggest downfall was that she didnt settle that well. She was quite free and quite keen throughout, had very little cover on the outside and was forced to go widest of all. For whatever reason Jarnet didnt decide to use the low draw and stay on the inside, anmd that may have cost her.
Report Figgis October 6, 2015 5:50 PM BST
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/timeform-sectional-debrief-special-arc-weekend-2015-5102015

Figgis, she might have been fastest by miliseconds... but she only gains about a length on Free Eagle in the whole finishing straight, so Im not sure the times prove she liked the ground

The final 600m of a 12f race in 33.69, you think a horse can do that when it doesn't entirely act on the ground?
Report Figgis October 6, 2015 5:58 PM BST
The ride Jarnet give her is a side issue, as whether he went inside or outside it was still going to be extremely difficult to make up that ground off such slow fractions. He would've had to keep her much closer to the pace and that may have caused problems of her settling even worse, so I haven't made an issue of his ride. I'm also not saying she'd have won, personally I don't think she would have. However anybody with even the most amateur grasp of sectional times would concede she'd have gone closer than she did off a better pace.

The real issue is the ride on the pacemaker, this man had one job to do, he had no other concerns than to set a decent pace, he didn't even come close to achieving this. He was either totally incompetent or his instructions and their tactics were abysmal.
Report Figgis October 6, 2015 6:27 PM BST
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/05/freddy-head-blames-hype-defeat-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe

The Heads on the Treve defeat. A lot of talk about inside or outside, the ground not accepted as an excuse, being too far out offered as a possible explanation but not one mention of the pace of the race, extraordinary.
Report Can't Catch Me October 6, 2015 7:04 PM BST
I didn't say she didn't act on the ground. I said I think she prefers it softer. Not least because it seems to slow her rivals down much less than it does her. I think he makes some valid points about her being trapped out wide though. It was definitely a factor to me, as I posted before.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 1:46 PM BST
Amazed everyone's still focusing on ground, deterioration, ride etc.

It's pretty clear cut to me - she's become unrideable....and if I were Jarnet I'd be more than a little miffed the Heads and others aren't fessing up.
Report Figgis October 7, 2015 2:13 PM BST
Not sure how a horse that's just won two Gp1s and beaten only 2.5 lengths in an Arc after showing little more than keenness in a slowly run race (a slowly run race that should have been avoidable) can be said to be unrideable, hardly a rodeo act.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 2:30 PM BST
I made no mention of the GPdSC, Figgis.  It started in the Vermeille.

Watch the Vermeille (which she didn't need 'riding' to win).  Ask yourself why Jarnet draws his whip deep inside the final furlong when miles clear. 

Watch the Arc (which she did need riding to win).  He spent the majority of the straight trying to pull her off Free Eagle.

She's unrideable when the chips are down now imo.

Interestingly CH had started to say she was better going right-handed.  You're not wrong there Criquette.
Report Figgis October 7, 2015 2:59 PM BST
Watch the Vermeille (which she didn't need 'riding' to win).  Ask yourself why Jarnet draws his whip deep inside the final furlong when miles clear.

Well it looked as though he did it to keep her straight from hanging right into the rail. Was this any worse than the abrupt swerve Golden Horn did away from the rail when colliding into Free Eagle towards the end of the Irish Champion Stakes without any obvious explanation? Not for me.

He spent the majority of the straight trying to pull her off Free Eagle.

She hung slightly to her right into Free Eagle in the straight while she was quickening better than those around her at the same time. She also hung right towards the rail in the straight for her first Arc. Jack Hobbs hung much more in the Derby. Golden Horn hung one way then the other in the International. Gleneagles hung to the rail in the Guineas. This isn't a huge negative for a horse.

If Treve's connections had a big change of plan and decided to give her one last swan song in the Champion Stakes and were looking for a jockey I'd bet they'd be queueing up to ride this 'unrideable' horse Wink
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 3:38 PM BST
Well it looked as though he did it to keep her straight from hanging right into the rail.
Yep. Or maybe try going through the rail.

Was this any worse than the abrupt swerve Golden Horn did away from the rail when colliding into Free Eagle towards the end of the Irish Champion Stakes without any obvious explanation?
Yep again.  Golden Horn hasn't done anything like that before or since, has he?  And it was at a track he'd never run at before with various excuses offered subsequently.  What are the Treve excuses Figgis?  She knows Longchamp better than Soumi ffs! And the pattern of her behavior is that it is getting appreciably worse.     

She hung slightly to her right into Free Eagle in the straight while she was quickening better than those around her at the same time. She also hung right towards the rail in the straight for her first Arc. Jack Hobbs hung much more in the Derby. Golden Horn hung one way then the other in the International. Gleneagles hung to the rail in the Guineas. This isn't a huge negative for a horse.

It might have looked to you as though she 'hung slightly'.  This is because Jarnet is putting all his efforts into keeping her straight, knowing the French Rules re interference.  Comparisons with races in England and Ireland are erroneous.  Comparisons with horses that have done it once and not before or since are also erroneous.

If Treve's connections had a big change of plan and decided to give her one last swan song in the Champion Stakes and were looking for a jockey I'd bet they'd be queueing up to ride this 'unrideable' horse Wink

LaughLaughLaugh
Report Figgis October 7, 2015 3:57 PM BST
And it was at a track he'd never run at before

He had run at York before hanging left and right in the International.

with various excuses offered subsequently

What plausible excuses were these?

It might have looked to you as though she 'hung slightly'.  This is because Jarnet is putting all his efforts into keeping her straight

I seem to remember Dettori having to take similar action to stop Golden Horn hanging into Free Eagle in the Sandown straight.

I think it's quite easy to back-fit the earlier signs once the results are known. If Golden Horn had underperformed at Longchamp it would be easy to say the signs were there at Leopardstown, even Freddie Head thought so.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 4:04 PM BST
He had run at York before hanging left and right in the International.
The Irish Champion is at Leopardstown Figgis Confused

What plausible excuses were these?
Shadows

I seem to remember Dettori having to take similar action to stop Golden Horn hanging into Free Eagle in the Sandown straight.
Your memory fails you.  FE has never run at Sandown and GH certainly didn't hang into whatever horse you're thinking of A La Treve.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 4:05 PM BST
I would agree it's easy to back-fit theories though.  I try to avoid doing so.  Not much point debating them to death as we'll never really know.
Report Figgis October 7, 2015 4:10 PM BST
The Irish Champion is at Leopardstown Figgis

Your answer suggested it's excusable if a horse hasn't run at a track before. I'm saying he hung left and right in the International where he had run before.

FE has never run at Sandown and GH certainly didn't hang into whatever horse you're thinking of A La Treve

Sorry, my mistake, I meant The Grey Gatsby. Golden Horn was definitely showing tendencies to hang into TGG which Dettori was obviously taking action to correct. Whether he interfered with the horse more than Treve interfered with Free Eagle is irrelevant as the hanging tendency was still there and it depends on whether you think Dettori is a stronger jockey than Jarnet, my opinion is that he is.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 4:23 PM BST
Hhmm...I think you're version of hanging - such as GH at York or Sandown and my version - Treve's on her last two starts, are slightly different Figgis.

Nae bother.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2015 4:23 PM BST
Apologies - the cardinal sin - "your"! CryCry

That's definitely a sign for me to retreat.....
Report Figgis October 7, 2015 4:35 PM BST
Anyway, Chantilly next year, will be interesting to see the draw stats Wink. Looking at this year's 4yos I strongly predict a 5yo will not be winning Silly
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 7, 2015 5:44 PM BST
But the fact is, holding wide and tracking across does take up precious energy

they didnt go quick and the pace element negates the early effort because the front horses benefited from the pace.

its nothing like what muharar encountered trying to get to the front rank in the french guineas.
stuck 10 yards off the fence round all bends having to run anything extra from 30 to 50 yards (guess)
Report ffs October 11, 2015 5:10 AM BST
you know there's much more to a horse travelling strongly and finishing a race than bare distance - adrenaline, the boost of red blood cells, horses who prefer to chase the lead than be out in front. Nearly all horses prefer to follow than lead, except when they "race".

As it relates to Golden Horn, I'm not comparing him to Treve but to New Bay and Flintshire as they travelled together and benefited from the pacemaker. And what I'm saying is Golden Horn's win is worth another couple of pounds because of the relative draws and the fact the horse had to be shaken up and make it himself for the first 3/4f.

On that ground, he truly is an exceptional horse.
Report Charlton2005 October 11, 2015 11:41 AM BST
this thread really demonstrates how stupid people are

the winner was rated to beat trev by 2.5l which is pretty much what happened.

nothing to do with his draw, her age, her draw, his age, frankie, jarnet, course, distance, going, red blood cell use, leading, following, blah blah blah

he is a better horse than she is and you knew that before the race. what a waste of human endeavor this thread is
Report Figgis October 11, 2015 12:45 PM BST
Whose ratings are these?
Report Howellsy October 11, 2015 6:52 PM BST
Charlton, I presume you always back the 'top rated'horse in group races then (whatever ratings they are)? Are you always this confident after the event?
Report The Headmaster October 11, 2015 7:05 PM BST
If only races were run on ratings and not racecourses.....
Report Charlton2005 October 11, 2015 7:34 PM BST
The Arc draw

Charlton2005
Charlton2005 03 Oct 15 21:11 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 40,097 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
Draw makes no difference, so the GH drift is purely for the mugs.

"Only 1 winner drawn more than 14 in 30 years" really is for morons only.



Charlton2005 04 Oct 15 14:21 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 4,282 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
pressed my GH E/W back with a Treve E/W lay.

gl all


Howellsey - the 2 posts above will confirm that I was just as confifent b4 the race as after.

Figgis, the RP and timeform had him 3lbs and 4lbs respectively superior. I'll back the top rated if the odds are wrong. In this case a 10 year old could have figured out what to back (hence my disbelief at this thread).

Headmaster - Given your knowledge, I know that you know that I am right here.
Report Madhu October 11, 2015 7:49 PM BST
Off you go boy, your just wasting legitimate space throwing ill conceived twaddle at good minded people who have debated and contributed to an excellent thread.
Report Figgis October 11, 2015 7:49 PM BST
Figgis, the RP and timeform had him 3lbs and 4lbs respectively superior.

Career ratings or just this season?
Report Figgis October 11, 2015 7:53 PM BST
https://twitter.com/timeform/status/650341808527032320

Only there seems to be some confusion here.

‏Timeform   Treve tops our ratings for tomorrow's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Will she win a record-breaking third Arc?
Report Figgis October 11, 2015 8:20 PM BST
Racing Post had Golden Horn 132, Treve 131, meaning Treve would have a race revised rating of 134.
Report Howellsy October 11, 2015 9:04 PM BST
Yes, Charlton, you were strong on GH before the race, but you didn't know he would win; there is just something gratuitous and insufferable about your post race comments, your contempt for those who felt other outcomes might be possible.
Report ffs October 11, 2015 10:00 PM BST
If the weather hadn't been as kind to GH he would definitely not have won.
Report ffs October 11, 2015 10:02 PM BST
In fact, if the race had been only one week prior, he wouldn't have even run !

Had the race even been a couple of days earlier New Bay and Treve would have been right on top of him,
Report ffs October 11, 2015 10:04 PM BST
So, yeah, Golden Horn won to his rating, because it was a fast ground rating. With give in the ground he's at least 6lbs worse.
Report A_T October 12, 2015 7:53 AM BST
mystery how it got beaten by Arabian Queen
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 9:12 PM BST
TURF


Name (country trained)    Race    Rating
1    Golden Horn (GB)    Coral-Eclipse    132
2
Lankan Rupee (Aus)    Black Caviar Lightning    126
3    Jack Hobbs (GB)    Irish Derby    125
    Solow (Fr)    Dubai Turf    125

The Grey Gatsby (GB)    Prince Of Wales's    125
    Treve (Fr)    Prix Vermeille    125
7    Able Friend (HK)    Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup    124
    Brazen Beau (Aus)    Newmarket Handicap    124
    Flintshire (Fr)    Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud    124

Free Eagle (Ire)    Prince Of Wales's    124

Gleneagles (Ire)    2,000 Guineas    124

Order Of St George    Irish St Leger    124

Postponed (GB)    King George    124
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 9:13 PM BST
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-class-everything-points-to-treve-landing-arc-treble/1962424/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

not sure how they figure treve wins given her rating
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 9:17 PM BST
Howellsey, my posts are for newbies interested in avoiding the moronic path pretty much set by a few threads on here (but mostly on the horseracing section)

"no winner of the arc drawn 16 in the last 50 years"

really??
Report Figgis October 12, 2015 9:26 PM BST
That was just their rating for her Vermeille win, apparently they had her overall rating 131, which is already minus the allowance.
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 9:37 PM BST
On the day, in the paper, they had him 142 and her 139 which are race adjusted.

What I find incredible from ostensibly intelligent people is all the "excuses" except the most obvious one, she wasn't that good, and by ignoring that fact, one sets oneself up to be mistaken again and again and again, because the true cause of the defeat is rationalised around red blood cell counts, going, draw, jockeyship, etc etc etc.

I mean people on here were saying he can't win because he has a coffin box draw. come on.
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 9:45 PM BST
Charlton2005 03 Oct 15 20:38 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 4,287 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
A_T 03 Oct 15 17:26 Joined: 27 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 6,309 | Blogger: A_T's blog
Last year's time was one of the fastest Arcs ever. Some on here believe that race was even run at a false pace. No reason to think it'll inconvenience at all. Obviously received wisdom is that GH needs it fast - even so he's not in Treve's class.

rated 4 lbs better than her

this was my only pre race contribution to this thread

as you can see, effectively there to protect the viewers from people spouting this kind of sh1t "he's not in treves class" - yet in the RP she is 139 and he is 142, ans there is plenty more where that comes from.

bottom line - if you would rather read sh1t than logic then just click block user
Report Figgis October 12, 2015 9:48 PM BST
Baffled how they could get a race adjusted figure for GH of 142 from a starting figure of 132, makes me wonder what exactly they're adjusting to.

What I find incredible from ostensibly intelligent people is all the "excuses" except the most obvious one, she wasn't that good

Well, excuses can sometimes be relevant, as anyone backing GH had to be accepting of excuses for his International defeat, which were similar to the ones being made about Treve in the Arc, largely concerning positioning and pace.
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 9:54 PM BST
Those 2 races are instructive of my point.

In the first instance we need to look for excuses because the best horse lost, whereas in the second, the nest horse won and hence there is no need to look for excuses which is what the last 300 posts seem to have done on this thread.
Report Figgis October 12, 2015 9:59 PM BST
whereas in the second, the nest horse won

An opinion. Incidentally an opinion not shared pre-race by the two organisations on whose ratings you say you based your bets on.

hence there is no need to look for excuses

That depends if you only judge a race based on the winner. Treve's form with Flintshire wasn't replicated, so many people would see that as a reason for some post race analysis.
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 10:24 PM BST
I have the paper here. 142 139

Market reaction

"The draw appears to be in favour of Treve, with Golden Horn losing out with a wide stall," said William Hill spokesman Jon Ivan-Duke.

In time, this kind of quote will be the source of financial transaction misselling claims.

And it is ultimately the source for all such similar claims on here...but this place cannot be policed so i will point out cr@p where I can
Report Figgis October 12, 2015 10:29 PM BST
Those ratings don't make sense though, they have GH 132 which would mean they've adjusted to 9st 7lbs?

In time, this kind of quote will be the source of financial transaction misselling claims

Agree with you there. That kind of publicly perceived draw bias will already be incorporated into the prices on offer and often overcompensated for.
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 10:36 PM BST
Treve posted an RPR of 123 on the weekend. She peaked with a mark of 126 in the Arc last year and she is probably still capable of that sort of figure under ideal circumstances.

and from the earlier piece, GH had 132 in the eclipse so  6lbs better or 3 lbs for her allowance? (regardless of the absolute numbers 142 139)
Report Figgis October 12, 2015 10:49 PM BST
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-class-tough-to-see-what-could-beat-top-form-treve/1954175/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

It was such a potent display of acceleration she found herself five-lengths clear of Japanese champion Orfevre at the line and the performance earned her the title of best horse in the world that year with an RPR of 131.

She hasn't been able to match that figure since - her highest rating being the RPR of 126 she posted when landing the 2014 Arc - but given her problems last year and the fact she hasn't faced a horse with the ability to push her any higher this year there's a chance she is still capable of a very big rating.


RP manoeuvring their ratings into a no lose position. Treve wins and she was their race adjusted career top rated, GH wins and he's their season top rated. It's clear from the article, however, which way they were siding.
Report Charlton2005 October 12, 2015 10:59 PM BST
hmmm, almost like they didn't want to believe the 131? Cos the article I posted quotes her previous best (ever) being 126!! And they certainly had a 3 lbs gap between them on the day.

Anyway, gl for saturday if you're getting involved!
.

Good night
Report FELTFAIR October 13, 2015 8:58 AM BST
Come back Brigust,all is forgiven.Grin
Report ffs October 13, 2015 3:16 PM BST
omg, this thread has descended into lunacy, or Figgis you're being trolled

for one, I backed Golden Horn to do the double Irish Champion and Arc, and I said that on here.

But to dismiss the going and the draw belies an unbelievable lack of understanding.

For one, as a Golden Horn supporter, I checked that weather forecast every day.

Kincsem and others made amazing contributions to our understanding of the great race and the vagaries of the draw and the ground, thanks to them for that, whatever some OR-blind idiots make.
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 13, 2015 7:20 PM BST
mystery how it got beaten by Arabian Queen

no mystery.
gh is vulnerable at 1m 2f because he is better at 1m 4f.

aq looks a 1m 2f horse and i think we can presume she prefers a lead horse rather than makind her own running when she doesnt settle.

when she learns to settle though .........Happy
Report Sandown October 13, 2015 8:14 PM BST
Charlton uses the result to work backwards to the analysis, a method which always points to the correct analysis! How surprising!

He points out that this years race just required backing the top rated horse. Unfortunately, this approach loses money in the long run not just in the Arc but in every other race.


He denegrates the thread for stressing that the draw factor without recognising that no-one has ever claimed that it is anything g other than a disadvantage, not an elimination factor.

Simarly, the age of the horse was discussed relative to Treve in particular. Like the draw factor, these factors can influence chances and therefore price assessment.

I know that such simplistic views as expressed by Charlton are not in the majority on this thread, thank goodness otherwise survival at this game would not be possible. I thank all those who have contributed much to the debate whether I Agee with them or not. At least they show their knowledge and experience whereas Charlton does not.

See you all next year.
Report Madhu October 13, 2015 9:28 PM BST
Ditto ffs, Sandown and Feltfair among others who recently posted.
1,156 posts and 24,351 views on what has been a fine intelligent thread until now.

Thank you kindly and I look forward to next year's open debate with anticipation and reverence.
Report Charlton2005 October 15, 2015 2:05 PM BST
He points out that this years race just required backing the top rated horse. Unfortunately, this approach loses money in the long run not just in the Arc but in every other race.

any evidence for this or are you just proving my point re. garbage spouting?
Report Charlton2005 October 15, 2015 2:07 PM BST
He denegrates the thread for stressing that the draw factor without recognising that no-one has ever claimed that it is anything g other than a disadvantage, not an elimination factor.

the words coffin box were used to refer to GH's draw
Report Charlton2005 October 15, 2015 2:10 PM BST
I know that such simplistic views as expressed by Charlton are not in the majority on this thread, thank goodness otherwise survival at this game would not be possible. I thank all those who have contributed much to the debate whether I Agee with them or not. At least they show their knowledge and experience whereas Charlton does not.

sounds like sour grapes from another loser wondering how the simple approach managed to back winners at 7/1, 3/1, 6/4 and 4/5 all in the same race.
Report Charlton2005 October 15, 2015 2:11 PM BST
But to dismiss the going and the draw belies an unbelievable lack of understanding.

what moron dismissed the going?
Report Charlton2005 October 15, 2015 2:26 PM BST
5 5+ olds are at a disadvantage at the weights compared to 3 yr olds at this time of the year over 12f

hihm please
Report Charlton2005 October 15, 2015 2:33 PM BST
Fallen Angel 04 Oct 15 19:49 Joined: 06 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 1,999 | Blogger: Fallen Angel's blog
Timeform did an article about three days ago saying there was a very small draw bias stalls 1-4 in the Arc but nothing discernable for any of the stalls outside of this. It heavily swayed me, I can add a link on here.
Rate reply:
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RozelKid
RozelKid 04 Oct 15 19:12 Joined: 20 Aug 09 | Topic/replies: 1,210 | Blogger: RozelKid's blog
Well i will ignore the draw in future - at the end of the day the best horse in the race always wins ...whatever the draw.


the angel and the kid know
Report FELTFAIR October 15, 2015 6:34 PM BST
SadSadSad
Report ffs October 16, 2015 5:57 PM BST
sounds like Donald Trump - you's are all losers, total lightweights, you just gotta check the ratings, I'm a ratings machine :D
Report Charlton2005 October 17, 2015 2:42 PM BST
muhaarar top rated 1st 3/1
simple verse top rated 1st 7/1
solow top rated 1st 11/10

where's the mug who said you can't make money backing the top rated?
Report Charlton2005 October 17, 2015 3:13 PM BST
fascinating - "big step up on performance"

check the ratings and send the hihm in please

top 3 rated - 1st 2nd and 3rd
Report Charlton2005 October 17, 2015 3:21 PM BST
FASCINATING ROCK who recorded a career best last time and should relish the conditions.

watch and learn boys
Report FELTFAIR October 17, 2015 3:39 PM BST
zzzzzzzzz   zzzzzzzz   zzzzzzzz
Report Charlton2005 October 17, 2015 3:41 PM BST
snooze you lose fella. i'm guessing you don't withdraw much from this a/c
Report Madhu October 17, 2015 3:46 PM BST
Absolute prate prat
Report FELTFAIR October 17, 2015 3:46 PM BST
zzzzzzz   zzzzzzz  zzzzzzzz
Report Charlton2005 October 17, 2015 3:52 PM BST
prat

is that what the losers call the winners?
Report FELTFAIR October 17, 2015 3:56 PM BST
zzzzzzzzzzz  zzzzzzzzzzzz  zzzzzzzzzzzz
Report kincsem October 17, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Anyone have the Charlton2005 post count (1) before Arc (2) after Arc ?
Report breadnbutter October 30, 2015 9:12 PM GMT
This thread is still anoying the feck out of me , and been thinking ,there is a right few donuts that posted on it ,but there was a few whos total contribution was to make sure the thread was not going to deliver ,they  sidetracked continually and a think they need named shamed and given very short thrift on the next one ,not sure about all the steaming afters ,but he sounded very angry indeed ..... A think he failed to back the winner after listening to the utter tripe that was pasted on here Laugh
Report ffs November 1, 2015 12:06 AM GMT
In the Breeders Cup, Found won the race, but more importantly Golden Horn won the ratings,  :P
Report Figgis November 1, 2015 9:51 AM GMT
Personally I thought it was a decent thread, with people coming at the race from different angles and offering stats and opinions on a variety of factors that can influence the outcome of the race. The opinions weren't all agreed on but they were opened up for debate which is always a good thing in my view. I think the only real divide is between people who see a race purely as a puzzle to be solved and those who see it as an event with a multitude of possible outcomes where the challenge is to accurately price those possibilities.
Report ffs November 4, 2015 1:18 AM GMT
Figgis,

that's quite a good point, and it reminds me of the old dichotomy of whether to "back the winning horse, or the best value horse".

maybe it's more interesting to search for the outright winner, but no doubt if you value money then you search for value,

Anyway, it's clear the ground played a major role in Golden Horn winning.

Moreover, given his form on fast going he should probably have been about joint favourite.

Great thread and great race as always, and a very worthy winner.
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