St Leger - Ante Post Musings...

not sure what was going on this morning, was Bizarre anyway very close to getting the 7 runners I was expecting until the supplemented runner. Reading the AOB tea leaves proves as tricky as ever.

Tabor said Bondi would be their no1 horse in the Leger, and he's very rarely wrong.

obv, the other 14f horse, Fields has changed ownership and they'll be keen for him to run - but as I said earlier, the one to watch is George because he's also entered at the Curragh where AO'B only really has Kingfisher.

What do people make of the filly- not good enough?

Rated 108 after her last win...the form (for me) is not good enough.....famous last words.

Fields of Athenry is the one for me. It's a massive run in the Ebor under a fairly poor ride imo. Hopefully get a more experienced jock this time...

Almost tempted to take the 8s. Assume he'll run with the different owners.

The Ladbrokes connection with the yard isn't a thing anymore is it? They're top price.

I don't know anything about the new owner, I doubt it'll be a big priority for O'Brien now it's outside of Coolmore. The Ladbrokes thing may be a negative but on the plus side PP are shortest at 11/2

Order of St George now the weak one in the market, out to 4.0 on here, this looks the most likely non-runner, the fact that they sent across the other 2 to run at the Ebor meet I think is significant. Especially Bondi Beach in the Voltigeur, always a popular prep race for the Leger

What do people make of Storm the stars last run?

Although I always had it mind that he was an ideal type for the St Leger, it must be a concern that A. he had a hard race and B. that he was veering across in the final furlong.

That might be a sign that he was coming to the end of his tether stamina wise, a concern when he has to go two extra furlongs perhaps?

Storm The Stars will go off favourite at about 6/4 imo.

I must admit looking at Fields of Athenry's run in the Ebor it didn't scream St leger winner to me.

Ok the jockey was clearly posing it a very hard task riding it that way but it must be a concern the way it was passed by several handicappers in the final couple of furlongs. Didn't scream a horse that would relish the test of a St Leger.

Bondi Beach I'm starting to warm to. We know he will get every yard of the distance and seems like an out and out galloper with some toughness to boot. I'm just concerned with Storm the stars that he's had a tough season and that the extra distance will prove beyond him. Also not certain to get the trip on pedigree

I too have come to the same conclusion about STS: he's had a hard season and he was veering left towards the end in his last race (12f) and he's yet to go beyond 12f. On the other hand Bondi had OSG a short head behind in a 14f race in Ireland with Ryan Moore on board OSG; Hefferman, on board Bondi, lost his whip and Bondi was pushed put with hands and heels in the last furlong I believe.

With Bondi being their no1 horse (according to Tabor), the ground suiting Bondi more than OSG (good/fast anticipated at Doncaster) and Bondi beating OSG in Ireland, could OSG turn the table on Bondi without Ryan Moore on board or the ground in his favour, all things being equal? If not, should OSG be at a lesser price than Bondi and/or STS shorter than Bondi at the moment?

Yes Bondi Beach looks like the winner to me

dont see aiden running both never did

bb if fast, geroge if gs or slower that seems unlikley now

George left in the Irish St. Leger also - there is some NRNB but the price is ridiculous

I'm another one on Bondi Beach, although StS drifted left handed I don't see that as a problem at Doncaster with the rail to keep him straight, but I would definitely be concerned about the trip for StS whereas for Bondi it shouldn't be a problem

If the Ebor was run off level weights Fields of Athenry would have received about a stone under WFA?? Massive run really. My concern is it would have taken a lot out of him..

If the Ebor was run off level weights Fields of Athenry would have received about a stone under WFA?? Massive run really. My concern is it would have taken a lot out of him..

Money coming in for Bondi Beach but OSG is extremely weak now - known 'faces' perhaps?

Very much looking like an OOSG reroute to the Curragh, which is a double blow as I was on at 25 for Doncaster and have been smashing up Second Step for the Irish Leger.

There was a clue earlier in the week when O'Brien said Joseph would ride at Leopardstown but not to worry as he was sending Seamie and Colm to Doncaster.  You what mate?  There are three horses to ride but you're only sending two jockeys.....

Maybe APOB has fallen asleep on the couch.

hills already taken goerge out of the betting

aidan says we always saw bb as a horse what wants fast ground, why run it in heavy ground FTO over 12F ?, must have thought he was a bit slow, guess its possible hes turned inside out since then but unlikley, cant have FOA at all but always loved the song

wonder if STS is just different class, just worry hes had 8 races since may.

only play i can see is to lay bb sub 2/1

A considerable backing of Vengeur e/w @25/1 while we're still getting 1,2,3 looks the play today imo

The clock says Bondi Beach and Storm the Stars. Take your pick.

Bondi Beach for me,If you haven't seen his Debut run,Take a look,Not the Horse Coolmore wanted to win that day.

Simple Verse @ 10's & 9's ew first 3 earlier today seemed a good bet to me, what with the now likely field. Able to get a little on with the online books.

I've been looking at it's last couple of runs, very impressive, the horses it beat have done well since. I know it's a step up, but it looked a real battler at the finish in those last 2 races. Maybe won't have the class, but I think a chance she'll improve.

Should be easy enough to lay off anyhow on the day.

Sep 9, 2015 -- 6:51PM, CheltenhamRoar wrote:

Bondi Beach for me,If you haven't seen his Debut run,Take a look,Not the Horse Coolmore wanted to win that day.

I'm not saying your wrong but I don't see why that would make him a more likely Leger winner?

Bondi and Storm the Stars are too closely matched to split for me. And it the prices it's not worth bothering trying!

you're*

I think the extra 2fgs puts Bondi at an advantage over StS

@PA_Stables: O'Brien added that with rain forecast for @DoncasterRaces, Order Of St George set to run on Saturday rather than @Curraghrace on Sunday.

Coming back in in the market for sure.

Sep 9, 2015 -- 9:12PM, Paterson92 wrote:

@PA_Stables: O'Brien added that with rain forecast for @DoncasterRaces, Order Of St George set to run on Saturday rather than @Curraghrace on Sunday.

that doesn't make any sense !? ... there's NO rain forecast for Doncaster, as opposed to the Curragh, and that's the horse who wants it

Dettori booked for Bondi beach.Other two no jocks as yet.

He had been linked with the mount on Bondi Beach in the Ladbrokes St Leger at Town Moor but with the QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes now brought forward to a 5.45pm start, that isn't a possiblity.


Jeez....another twist..

THE Qipco Irish Champion Stakes will be run at 5.45, 65 minutes earlier than scheduled on Saturday, with concerns over the state of the ground prompting Leopardstown to try and provide a better surface.

With the course forecast heavy rain on Friday officials have moved the race forward in a bid to provide less churned up ground for the likes of Gleneagles and Golden Horn, who both prefer a sounder surface.

'It's too tight'

The move has thrown jockey plans up in the air and has scuppered Frankie Dettori's plans to ride for Aidan O'Brien in the Ladbrokes St Leger.

Dettori's name briefly appeared on the BHA website next to second favourite Bondi Beach on Thursday morning, but with just two hours between the St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes - in which he rides favourite Golden Horn, his plans for a Group 1 double have been aborted.

"It's still much too tight," said Dettori's agent Ray Cochrane. "It takes an hour and a half to get there [Leopardstown] in a high-speed chopper and I don't think John Gosden really wants to be sweating waiting for his jockey. He'll go to Leopardstown. It's too tight."

I was looking at it from last year and a few jockeys (Moore, Doyle, Dettori) all left after the Leger and were in time for two races prior to the Champ Stks.


to compound the problem, Seamie Heffernan (who AO'B just yday said will be at Doncaster) is booked to ride all day at Leopardstown!

So, who is going to ride those horses ? (except Colm O'Donoghue presumably on one)

Here's the latest ...

Bondi Beach to be ridden by William Buick
Order Of St George to be ridden by Colm O'Donoghue

buick on bondi beach. 
sds on fields of athenry.

I don't know if SDS is a good booking or not in that Seamie Heffernan, who is 3/3 on the horse, stays at Leoparstown.

SDS a good booking for me. Far better jock of the two. Strange AOB arrangements though. Not sure why JOB was never going to ride any of them if Dettori could?

For me, only 2 horses in the field have shown form worthy of a Leger winner, Storm The Stars and Bondi Beach, the rest look like a bunch of handicappers, although one or two are still open to improvement I suppose. The best horse is obviously STS and normally he'd be a bet at these odds but he's already had 8 runs this year, with many of those being hard, fast run races and particularly concerning is his last latest win also falls into that category. If he can win again here he'll have to be an exceptionally tough 3yo and would be a deserving winner but I'd say it's odds against he even runs close to his best form so I won't be backing him.

Bondi Beach is the fresher horse, has improved at the right time with his latest form behind STS being his best. I reckon there's still some value in his price so he's the one I'm backing.

AOB has pulled the jolly. Ground concerns ?

Commiseration to those on OSG - what a farce!

o'donoghue now on bondi beach.

not surprised at all by that - he was always likely to run at the Curragh.

Very little in my mind between Fields of Athenry and Bondi Beach - they'll both be tough to beat. I wouldn't go near Storm the Stars. The O'Brien pair both thrive on the 2f and are still on the upgrade.

rain all night surley this was georges for the taking

odd decision really unless they think blondi beach is a good thing

Bit of cut won't worry FoA and with OSG out as well I wouldn't be against some rain.

I may be a little biased due to my ante post wager, BUT. ....

I think this now sets up great by way of race shape for Storm the Stars, can see Fields of Athenry popping out in front, and STS sitting just off him in 2nd, getting a nice trail and then around 2 1/2f out pushing the button and see if he can hold off the late threat from Bondi just as he did at York.

Thank goodness they pulled out OSG as I thought he would be the one to do my ante post in !!

Good luck all, really enjoyed the comments and let's hope they come back in one piece having had a good fair race - (With STS in front by 20 :) )

I've flip flopped here. Now on Storm the stars, will possibly regret it.

Thinks STS is way too short at 2/1 all things considered tbg. Loads of tough races this season and is not bred for the trip.

Maybe AOB has pulled out OOSG because he feels he has the race won with one of the other two...

Donny's a funny track though. I think you need to travel, not completely convinced a great big horse like Bondi Beach will take to it. Storm the stars I think will relish the track. Not worried about the tough season for Sts, as he's a tough horse anyway.

As you say there's a doubt about the trip, he was leaning into the second last time out, but still Bondi Beach had plenty of chances to go past. Steve Miller the dosage expert in the weekender thinks Sts is the most likely winner so that's good enough for me!

Something must be seriously going wrong with O'Brien. Has his bottle gone with his position under threat? Is it him making these choices?

All season some absolute bizarre decisions. Now another one. Withdrawing a horse because the ground's not soft enough even though a deluge of rain is due

And yes I'm pocket talking

Call me bonkers but I've also had a saver on the French horse. Trainer has already won a classic with Makfi and with rain due he's one of the few sure to get the trip, even if his form isn't quite good enough in theory.

Gees It's unfortunate, but I doubt it was down to the ground. More likely he felt he had enough ammo for the race already. Maybe like Sint says he already felt the ones he had in their were good enough, or possibly the opposite and he felt none of them are good enough?! I guess we'll find out.

My view with O'Brien though is when he has several options, as he had or has in this case, more likely than not none of them are good enough. Even if the field is somewhat depleted, so it may well be the case that for a classic this might not take much winning.

*there

It's such a poor race they should have moved it to the end of the card and had a decent betting race on CH4 instead.

At the end of June AOB had 16 horses still in the race...SIXTEEN !!

I'd love it if FOA won and his chance has increased now the race has severely cut up. No bets so far though.

I can see this fields of athenry setting a decent clip and it turning into a slog in the home straight.

If that happens Storm the stars could be first to strike but Vengue Masque might just outstay them. Stranger things have happened

I can see FoA not seeing another horse.

Backed the front two.

Didn't Mordin used to have a stat whereby you could rule out horses for the St Leger that had already run at further than a mile and half going into the race. The race was won only by those who had been kept to a mile and a half or shorter.

The logic of this I seem to remember was something to do with owners not wanting to ruin the potential stud price of a horse by running it at staying trips, when the breeding world was obsessed with speed, until the day of the big race itself

I seem to recall thinking this was one of Mordin's less crazy theories, and although this stat has been busted in recent years (Masterly was the first to do so, and others have followed suit) I still believe it holds some water.

In other words Storm the stars has the ideal profile if he can get the trip, placed in both derbies (can you see anything else in this field managing that?) and won a great voltigeur.

With a bit of luck this is his time.

I have a vague memory of that stat coming out and a Godolphin horse who had won over 2 miles winning the Leger a week later...

Or did I dream that.

I've looked it up and it wasn't exactly how I remember... it was Mastery who has finished 3rd in the Queens Vase at Ascot (over 2 mile).

Leading Light also won both races a couple of years back.

It's a stat that I struggle with a bit anyway. Not sure how proven stamina can be seen as a negative.

Yes I mentioned Masterly in my post. I think Masked Marvel also ran over further than a mile and a half going into the St Leger.

Well it's not a negative, just that some horses that are certain to stay might lack the class to win the race.

Like the old saying goes about derby horses, if you're sure to get the trip you're not good enough...

And horses that have been running over shorter, well they haven't played their hand yet, whereas to some extent Bondi Beach and Fields of Athenry, have already shown their hand over longer distances.

The way Storm the stars ran in both derbies is suggestive of a horse that wants a stamina test, running on but lacking that extra gear to quicken at the business end. 1 mile six might just be the making of him.

I also think the sire of Storm the stars deserves a mention- he's been a big race sire over the last couple of years not just with this horse but also with Taghrooda. If Storm the stars wins tomorrow then with his progeny he's won an oaks, king george and a st leger in the last two years, as well as being placed in two derbies

A record that the great Galileo himself wouldn't be ashamed by....

Fair enough, not sure how I missed that. MM won over 1m 5f. My only ever Leger winner

Aye, I wouldn't be against STS prospects of staying tbh. I just think him and Bondi (and OSC before being taken out) where too closely matched on form and priced accordingly/correctly in respect of one another's chances. For that reason I saw it worth looking elsewhere. And FoA appeals to me quite a lot. Reckon a repeat of the Ebor run might even take this...

Strange about Sea The Stars as a sire - yes, there was Taghrooda, a pretty spectacular success story, but I can't help feeling he has been a bit of a disappointment at stud so far - where's the speed?

backed FOA. GL all.

4mm overnight and still raining...

tons of sobs
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07 Sep 15 15:38 Joined: 29 Jun 08 | Topic/replies: 492 | Blogger: tons of sobs's blog
Rated 108 after her last win...the form (for me) is not good enough.....famous last words.


OOPS..............

He's not gone hard enough on FoA there. Was coming back at the end...

Filly surely keeps I.

WD any winners.

Not so sure about that one...

Well, I collected but very luckily as I thought the best horse won. Astonished at the amended result, as even though I believe the implementation of the rules has gone too far in leaving nearly every result as it stands I've seen many similar or worse examples left unchanged and this displays a total lack of consistency.

The second incident is definitely caused by Bondi imo.

Agree there is no way of claiming the best horse didn't win the race, which is basically my interpretation of the rules.

The rules really need revising these days.

Colm O'Donoghue didn't even seem to think he'd have won regardless.

The decision was a disgrace Figgis, the worst I've seen in my 25 years of following the sport. The more I think about it the more I'm certain they'll reverse the result.

I was on Storm the stars in the end so which one of them won mattered little to me from a financial point of view, but justice was certainly not done.

There was plenty of scrimmaging and barging between the two of them, Bondi Beach tried to pin the filly in on the fence but he wasn't strong enough to keep her in and when she did get out he still had a chance to go past her in the final furlong, but wasn't good enough.

Lewisham Ranger, I take it you never saw Cecil's Sabrehill win at Newbury just over 20 years ago then? I backed him that day so it's still vivid in my memory

The UK rule is 1. Did interference take place? 2. Was the result affected? The stewards answered yes (twice) to the first part and yes to the second part.They blamed the winner for both occurances. As a result, they had no choice but to demote the winner.

Personally, I prefer that rule to France/States 1. Did intererence occur? If yes, was it the fault of the winner? If yes, then disqualify.

Should have added that automatic disqualification follows whether winner or not in France/States. I think that rule produces more silly disqualifications than under our rule.

The old rules were ridiculous, leading to the absurd situation of Sabrehill being disqualified. However, the rules have gone too far in the other direction where very few results are overturned despite some pretty bad cases of interference. This has led to a situation where jockeys aren't fussed about breaking the rules as they know they're more likely to keep the race and just take a slap on the wrist. Hardly any results have been overturned in recent years unless the winning distance was as short as a short head, as the stewards have stated they couldn't be sure the result was affected.

Today the winning distance was a head but they reckon the result was affected, despite most people, including many like me who backed Bondi Beach, thinking the best horse passed the post first. I wouldn't have as much of a problem with this particular case if all such instances were treated in the same manner, but we all know they haven't been.

worst one I've seen was Taufans Melody
1997 at Ascot.
Was on this at 25s and at tote odds.
Gutted aint the word.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=115519&r_date=1993-07-17&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Check out the Sabrehill result. When the comments say "slight bump", believe me they're not understating the case. Winning distance was 4 lengths.

Actually I was going to mention Sabrehill, I backed that horse as well and couldn't believe it when it got thrown out

I believe you are talking about his win at York Figgis? I think he won his maiden race at Newbury but then got disqualified at York. (Was it even in the Juddmonte stakes?) On his second ever run.

I seem to recall him making his debut late on as a three year old but he was some horse, sadly my memory might be playing tricks but is it possible he never ran again after that sad York escapade.

One of Cecil's best probably but never got the chance to fulfill his potential.

Sorry I just checked you were right about it being at Newbury. He had already won his maiden at Newmarket.

I backed him at York and he surged into the lead at the two furlong marker, looking all over the winner (if they had betfair then he probably would have gone at least 1.05 in running) but then got chinned, that's why I recall being disgusted

So basically just a very unlucky horse all round

Lewisham Ranger, I went into town on the Newbury day to place my bet. Sabrehill had put up a very good time on 3yo debut and I had a maximum bet at Laddies, I recall he opened at 9/4 before being backed down. I placed the bet (you could comfortably get decent sums on back then), watched him win easily then left the bookies to do some shopping with the intention of picking up my winnings on the way back, instead of walking around town with a pocket full of cash. A bit later I called into a Done's shop to check the later results, I couldn't believe it when I saw Sabrehill had been dsq has I hadn't even been aware there would be an inquiry. I asked some bloke what happened, thinking maybe Roberts had weighed in incorrectly or something, he said don't worry Done's pay out on both results. Unfortunately for me Laddies didn't.

I remember the York race, I had intended to recover my losses on him but reluctantly left the race as I was unsure about taking the price on the softish ground. He never raced again and if I remember rightly they said he picked up an injury during the race, so yes very unlucky.

That's a genuine bad luck story!

reminds me of some time I backed this horse, and it got beat. I was so annoyed I ended up in my anger doing a huge bet on Tiger Woods for the golf, and he lost of course. This is going some years back as well, in the days when Tiger was actually half decent...

I only found out too late that the horse I had backed was actually awarded the race,like you I wasn't even aware that there had been a stewards, but the damage had been done by then!

Any thoughts on the National stakes today mate?

This is my worst ever stewards decision which cost me.

Royal Gait.1988

On 16 June, Royal Gait was sent to contest Britain's most prestigious stayers race, the Gold Cup over two and a half miles at Royal Ascot. Cash Asmussen took over the ride from Gibert, and the gelding started the 15/2 fourth choice in the betting behind Sadeem, Primitive Rising and Sergeyevich. He was not among the early leaders but moved up to fourth place on the turn into the straight. At this point, El Conquistador, who had been acting as a pacemaker for Sadeem, dropped back sharply and collided with Royal Gait who was moving up on the rail. El Conquistador stumbled badly and unseated his jockey Tony Clark. Royal Gait continued his run on the inside, took the lead approaching the final furlong, and drew away to win by five lengths from Sadeem with a gap of fifteen length back to Sergeyevich in third.[7] Royal Gait's winning time of 4:15.67 broke the existing course record by more than three seconds.[8] The racecourse stewards held an inquiry into the race, concluded that Asmussen had been responsible for bumping El Conquistador and disqualified Royal Gait. The result of the inquiry has been described as "among racing's greatest bungles".[9] Fellows described the result as "difficult to believe".[8]


Happy ending though because Royal Gait gave me my biggest ever single bet win when he won the Champion Hurdle ...but I had to wait out a stewards which ran more than 40 mins (until after the next race if I remember rightly.)But the right result this time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYBK37DZ8C4

While El Conquistador was obviously weakening, Asmussen had to have been aware of that and I thought it was careless and dangerous riding from the American, which could have ended up worse than it did. Undoubtedly the best horse passed the post first though.

Under todays rules, would RG have been disqualified, I wonder? Was there an incident? Yes, obviously. Was the result affected. No, clearly. Today, the horse would probably have kept the race but the jockey would receive a ban, I expect. That would be fair imo.

Yes, silly to ban a horse that was so obviously the best in the race, therefore not only penalising connections but more importantly (although I'm sure connections would disagree) penalising winning punters, with the possibility of punters losing faith in betting on the game. However the current rules do not go far enough to dissuade jockeys from taking rule breaking risks that far outweigh the penalty they receive and more has to be done in that department.

I should've said silly to disqualify a horse. Actually a future ban is one of the possible deterrents that has been mentioned and should be considered with other options.

Yes, I agree figgis. Punishment should not only fit the crime but act as a deterrent. And the horse and jockey should be dealt with as separate issues.

For you Sabrehill fans - Still cannot belive that he got chinned by Ezzoud !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PMYEQ97mTM

Apparently he injured his near fore tendon during the race, which although not obvious from the video you'd have to think must have had an effect and was the likely reason he got caught.

On second thoughts I'd say it was actually discernible from the video.

Think the appeal decision proves what most of us thought at the time, the reversal was wrong.

Aye, right decision. Shame it was ever reversed for all concerned on the day.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/ralph-beckett-beckett-proposes-radical-new-approach-to-whip-rules/1969429/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

The Beckett-trained Simple Verse was first past the post in the St Leger but lost the race to Bondi Beach after a stewards' inquiry that focused on two separate incidents of interference.

However, in the live inquiry broadcast on Channel 4, Colm O'Donoghue's breach of the whip rules was not even mentioned, a fact Beckett believes needed addressing.

All-weather trial?

He said: "Colm O'Donoghue broke the whip rules on Bondi Beach, although that wasn't seen as a factor in the stewards' inquiry. My view on that is that horses should be disqualified if their riders use the whip too many times, but only after the weighed-in announcement.

"So all bets stand, it's still first past the post, bookmakers would only pay out on one horse. The punters wouldn't be punished but the connections would be penalised. Someone who is much wiser than me pointed out that if you start throwing out horses for overuse of the whip, it's incitement to riot, but by removing the punter factor you remove that potential. Why should the punter pay for it?

"It would stop whip overuse overnight. Trial it from January 1 in the little races on the all-weather, and by May 1 everyone's got used to it. I can't see any downside to it."


At least Beckett has attempted to come up with something better than the current rules but I can see an obvious downside to it. This would be absolutely no disincentive whatsoever when the potential winnings of a gamble far outweighs the paltry prize money on offer, which is particularly relevant to the all weather.