Apr 30, 2016 -- 5:47PM, Figgis wrote:
I didn't want to be with Air Force Blue today but that was purely about poor value, whereas in the 1000 I actually believe the market has the wrong favourite. I can totally understand why Minding is the market leader due to her seemingly impressive win in the Fillies Mile but for me it looked more outstanding than it really was and I have that win only 1lb higher than her Moyglare win. I rate that form just about good enough to win a poor Guineas but worthy of only a place in a good year. Like AFB she didn't appear to be as highly thought of at the beginning of her 2yo season as she was later on when she made big improvement. I wonder if she'll train on but even if she does I see her as more of an Oaks filly anyway.I rate Lumiere's Cheveley Park win good enough to beat or match the most recent winners of the 1000. As she's only raced over 6f there has to be a question if she'll get the mile but if she does and Johnston has her at peak form I think she's the one to beat. Some of my bets are placed just on value grounds but my favourite bets are when I'm in disagreement with all the public ratings and I think the market has the wrong fav, this is one of those occasions so I'm also really looking forward to the race.
Good morning figgis, Yes a cracker, I was against AFB on breeding + poor value, Ground etc, Lumiere s dam could well have been group class, and yes I have Lumiere fav with concern of racing style and if it can be controlled, she will stretch them for sure.
Apr 30, 2016 -- 9:09PM, jamesp wrote:
PS The tongue tie for Ballydoyle is rather off-putting (following Air Force Blue's dismal performance with one yesterday).
Interesting runner nonetheless, no sprinting profile on form, improvement was forthcoming up in the trip. So much speed in the race? Shortlisted here.
May 1, 2016 -- 5:08AM, geoff m wrote:
Figgis and Metro John if you have Lumiere as fav then surely Illuminate as Jamesp highlighted is a monstrous price @ 34.0 on here.Did any of you see the gallop with Toormore and Estidhkaar they showed on RUK i think. She motored past Toormore who came out and won Bet 365 mile last week.Yes the trip might be a concern but with the ever drying ground and forecast for a sunny morning @ Newmarket i think she stonking value.One of the biggest ricks in a market ive seen for a long time.If she goes off here @ 34.0 plus i thin i will give up punting/greening up.A big fan of Minding and backed after Fillies Mile but with the drying conditions @ 2.38 no thanx.
Totally agree with that, can put a line through her run in the USA on soft..would prefer it a bit faster today but she has the form to be bang in contention and is massive value.
May 1, 2016 -- 10:29AM, jamesp wrote:
Well, Aidan O'Brien has finally managed to win the race with a top-class two-year-old, putting to bed the notion that he can't get them ready first time out in the Guineas. Getting the 1-2-3 was a remarkable training performance. I thought that Ballydoyle was given too much to do. Lumiere and Illuminate blatantly failed to stay. A very satisfactory result from the betting point of view...
well done, and great result, look forward to the next thread, ffs.