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jamesp
17 Jun 15 13:50
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 1,045 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
With Royal Ascot underway, I guess it's as good a time as any to start off a new discussion thread on next year's fillies' classic...

Once in a while, a filly catches the eye with an authoritative early-season win in Listed company, marking herself out as a smart prospect with classic aspirations, eg Attraction (Hilary Needler Trophy, Beverley, 4 June 2003), Natagora (Prix la Fleche, Longchamp, 14 June 2007), Sky Lantern (Coolmore Stud EBF Sprint Stakes, Naas, 4 June 2012).  The only filly to have made an impression at Listed level already this season is Richard Hannon's Great Page, who won the same Listed race at Naas that Sky Lantern took three years ago.  The trouble is, she was put firmly in her place by stablemate Illuminate at Salisbury on her previous start (albeit the winner, making her debut, was receiving a few pounds) and I get the impression that the Naas race didn't have much strength in depth this year (the runner-up, still a maiden, ran poorly next time when up in trip).  Several fillies have made a good impression in Listed and conditions races during the first part of the season, but nothing has really caught my eye. 

The Queen Mary Stakes and the Albany Stakes this week will help to sort the wheat from the chaff...
Pause Switch to Standard View 1000 GUINEAS (2016)
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Report FELTFAIR April 28, 2016 8:35 AM BST
Forecast improved locally so likely good ground.
Report impossible123 April 28, 2016 8:44 AM BST
Connections of Coolmore do manipulate the betting market from recent experiences eg Giovanni Canaletto, Bondi Beach, Order Of St George in the 2015 Epsom Derby day.
Report StaroftheClass April 28, 2016 11:56 AM BST
Ballydoyle a bit weak on the exchanges which suggests weather doubts but the forecasts I'm looking at seem to suggest that we are dry after a light bit of rain today so surely we will get good ground at the weekend by the very least.
Report sintonian April 28, 2016 3:51 PM BST
There would be quite a serious backlash from punters if Ballydoyle did not run if the Going was Good after that Channel 4 piece last weekend. I think she will run, otherwise that whole interview will be looked upon as thoroughly misleading.
Report geoff m April 28, 2016 4:07 PM BST
Kevin Bucley @ Press conference in week re Ballydoyles intended participation:
"Minding is very talented and has done very well over the winter, but equally Ballydoyle too," he said. "There's a really high quality level of Classic fillies this year. Our representatives on Sunday were one-two-three in the Moyglare at two - if that could be replicated again on Sunday, it would be wonderful.

"They're all well and if you saw the Morning Line on Saturday, Ballydoyle did a very nice piece of work, but Minding did as well. Unfortunately it didn't lend itself to the two of them being… they weren't working together and they couldn't be both filmed at the same time, but I can assure you that Minding did an exceptional piece too.

"I think what's probably changed is that, no offence to the French, the English Guineas is the race. The French Guineas is at Deauville this year [due to the redevelopment of Longchamp]. Every time I've been to Deauville it's rained and rained a lot. The ground could be totally against her if she were to go to France so I would presume that would be the thinking behind it, although there is a fortnight between the races so running in both is far from inconceivable."
Report sinfin April 28, 2016 6:05 PM BST
y is ballydoyle so weak on ere
Report geoff m April 28, 2016 7:01 PM BST
Either a) non runner or b) manipulating markets as suggested earlier.


Shes nearly double the price she will be if she runs.
Report sinfin April 28, 2016 7:35 PM BST
the forecast is nowhere near as bad so surely they ave to run her now
Report geoff m April 28, 2016 7:53 PM BST
I hope so sinfin shes the biggest winner in the book @ present.
Report ffs April 28, 2016 11:32 PM BST
They sound v bullish on Minding, but Ballydoyle will put it up to her on better ground
Report GILLJAYSMOUSE April 29, 2016 1:06 AM BST
I think you are forgetting a certain grey horse Laugh
Report sintonian April 29, 2016 8:12 AM BST
8mm overnight. Drying day today though
Report sintonian April 29, 2016 9:16 AM BST
Good to Soft officially.
Report unclepuncle April 29, 2016 10:31 AM BST
Well it looks like the only withdrawal is Ashadihan so Ballydoyle has been declared - I thought with the overnight rain and the market weakness on here over the last 2 days they might withdraw her.
Report unclepuncle April 29, 2016 10:34 AM BST
^ Basing this on PP's betting which is now nrnb so I'm assuming it's based on the final decs.
Report StaroftheClass April 29, 2016 1:23 PM BST
Ballydoyle has been declared but this was before the news about 8mm of rain.

Officially good to soft at the moment but just a light shower and 1-2mm at most expected, with a drying day on Sat she'll be glad she's running Sunday!

Air Force Blue might had to deal with his slowest ground yet in the 2000 tomorrow but we will see.
Report ffs April 29, 2016 7:18 PM BST
AFB doesn't mind the ground - or the trip - he's a machine, 'huge engine' was the comment I heard

Ballydoyle definitely running and the ground though she's 1-1 with Minding, it's really up to the ground, the ground (G/S - 7.0ish at Newmarket) will be better for Ballydoyle than when Minding beat her. If it goes good (likely), Ballydoyle will really be quick. They've said Minding is more a 1m4 filly, that Ballydoyle more a 1m2 max, read into that what you want ...
Report the bairn April 29, 2016 11:53 PM BST
this thread is usually the best one on the forum, always informative from start to finish, but i've never read as much pish in all my life as in the last 14 days or so, a case has been made for nearly every single horse with the exception of Minding, I believe if Vincent O'Brien trained it and Lester Piggot was on board, with what it achieved last year it would be a 1 to 5 shot. cheers.
Report Graeme83 April 30, 2016 12:52 AM BST
Crazy. 1\5
Report ffs April 30, 2016 9:46 AM BST
Minding ran two incredible races last year - both on softer ground that suited her (that she likely won't get again),

Prior to that she was very well held by Ballydoyle in the Debutante Stakes,

Who's to say which has wintered the better? .. Which has the fitness edge - Ballydoyle was arguably quicker out of the blocks than Minding who just built uo to a great victory,

The vibes are very much that Minding will be coming back for Epsom, not so much Ballydoyle,



And then there's Alice Springs who was never far away,

Lumiere might stay, in which case she has a good chance (though I don't see it),


I think Ballydoyle is the one on the drying ground, at the odds. If it was G/S then it would be the other.
Report geoff m April 30, 2016 2:38 PM BST
Ground seems to be drying up dramatically . Ballydoyle well overpriced imo
Report geoff m April 30, 2016 3:30 PM BST
Just looking @ the market despite the drying ground Minding has shortened in to 2.28!
Surely some value to be had against with Ballydoyle/Lumiere/Illuminate/Alice SPrings/Mix and Mingle suited by drying conditions.
Report sintonian April 30, 2016 4:28 PM BST
Given the bullsh1t AOB has peddled with Air Force Blue you'd have to be wary of backing Minding at 11/8!
Report ffs April 30, 2016 4:36 PM BST
at least the fillies don't have first-time tack on,

in the 2000, idk wtf, given tack have to imagine soft palate, horse looked wonky after 2 strides and never travelled
Report ffs April 30, 2016 4:38 PM BST
you can be sure Ryan Moore knows - will we ever ? - will we ****
Report Graeme83 April 30, 2016 8:02 PM BST
When Moore writes his article to Betfair, would he have handed in Saturdays and Sundays runners at the same time ?
Report Sandown April 30, 2016 10:15 PM BST
AFB aside, the case for Minding is very strong. Looking back over more than 20 years or so I can only find Bosra Sham going into the race with the figures that Minding has got.I can't see any negatives over ground or distance so for me its down to whether or not AOB has the horse right on the day for its first run. Given the trainer's lifetime record in these races my confidence isn't really dented despite AFB's dismal run today.

Minding is a maximum bet for me tomorrow. I've also backed it for the Oaks.
Report metro john April 30, 2016 10:46 PM BST
Really looking forward to the race, Lumiere got every chance of staying if able to settle a little better early(but does show obvious speed), I am quite taken with the e/w chance of ALJAZZI, winner on soft over shorter, took time to get going on the A/W latest, trip looks fine, dam a listed winner over 10f soft, looks the sort to find more under pressure, massive price ,just too big to miss.
Report Figgis April 30, 2016 11:47 PM BST
I didn't want to be with Air Force Blue today but that was purely about poor value, whereas in the 1000 I actually believe the market has the wrong favourite. I can totally understand why Minding is the market leader due to her seemingly impressive win in the Fillies Mile but for me it looked more outstanding than it really was and I have that win only 1lb higher than her Moyglare win. I rate that form just about good enough to win a poor Guineas but worthy of only a place in a good year. Like AFB she didn't appear to be as highly thought of at the beginning of her 2yo season as she was later on when she made big improvement. I wonder if she'll train on but even if she does I see her as more of an Oaks filly anyway.

I rate Lumiere's Cheveley Park win good enough to beat or match the most recent winners of the 1000. As she's only raced over 6f there has to be a question if she'll get the mile but if she does and Johnston has her at peak form I think she's the one to beat. Some of my bets are placed just on value grounds but my favourite bets are when I'm in disagreement with all the public ratings and I think the market has the wrong fav, this is one of those occasions so I'm also really looking forward to the race.
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 2:45 AM BST
I don't have a strong view about this year's 1000 Guineas.  There are negatives about most of the leading contenders, and it would be no great surprise to see a 10/1+ winner.

We can't be sure that the two principal Aidan O'Brien-trained fillies will be 100% ready to give their best: Aidan has had a conspicuous lack of success with his proven Group race winners in the 1000 Guineas first time out, and he has struggled in recent years to get them cherry-ripe for this race without a prep run.  Minding was an impressive winner of the Fillies' Mile last season, but that was on yielding ground and represented quite a severe stamina test for a juvenile filly: she was staying on strongly in the final furlong and may be better suited by longer trips this year.  The Fillies' Mile does not have a great record as a Guineas trial in recent years.  Even if Minding is fully wound up for today's race she might be vulnerable to a sharper type of filly.  Ballydoyle is a speedier type than Minding and should be well suited by the likely good ground.  The lack of a prep run is a worry, but she was reported as being 'well forward' a week or two ago and is certainly good enough (based on last season's form) to win a Guineas if she has trained on.

There are stamina doubts about both Lumiere and Illuminate (first and second in last season's Cheveley Park Stakes) and neither has had the advantage of a prep run.  Lumiere appears to have done well from two to three and has reportedly learned to relax better at home: if she is able to transfer this more relaxed attitude to the racecourse and doesn't get buzzed up by the occasion, this will certainly give her a better chance of getting the mile.  Illuminate needs to improve for the step up in trip, which is by no means guaranteed, and she was a smaller type of filly than Lumiere last season; nevertheless, she looks massively overpriced at 33/1 (at time of writing).

Turret Rocks lacks a prep run this season and is likely to find this mile a bit on the sharp side for her, but she should be staying on at the finish and wasn't far off the best last season.  Alice Springs doesn't have much to find on last season's form and has had the benefit of a prep run (on unsuitably heavy ground), but she needs to make further improvement.  Jet Setting won her trial on heavy ground and is hard to weigh up (on this much faster surface).

Nathra ticks most of the boxes and won her prep race in good style.  She's likely to have come on for her reappearance run and should be spot-on for this race.  She looks a speedier type than Minding and must have a big say if the favourite runs below expectations, but one can't get away from the fact that she was comprehensively beaten (despite running very well) by Minding in the Fillies' Mile.  I'd expect Nathra to confirm Nell Gwyn form with Robanne, Mix And Mingle and Epsom Icon.

Midweek is lightly raced and has reportedly come on nicely for her reappearance run in the Prix Imprudence and will appreciate the extra furlong.  She needs to make significant further improvement, but she's a lovely filly and makes the most appeal among the outsiders.

It's hard to envisage Blue Bayou, Fireglow, Aljazzi or Sharja Queen making the leap to 1000 Guineas winner.

I've backed a number of these fillies over the last 10 months (including Minding 14/1, Lumiere 20/1, Nathra 25/1 among others) and am happy with my position on the race, but if I were entering the market at this late stage (at current odds) I'd be inclined to side with the race-fit Nathra and Midweek against the field, with perhaps a smaller saver on Illuminate.
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 3:09 AM BST
PS The tongue tie for Ballydoyle is rather off-putting (following Air Force Blue's dismal performance with one yesterday).
Report metro john May 1, 2016 7:51 AM BST

Apr 30, 2016 -- 5:47PM, Figgis wrote:


I didn't want to be with Air Force Blue today but that was purely about poor value, whereas in the 1000 I actually believe the market has the wrong favourite. I can totally understand why Minding is the market leader due to her seemingly impressive win in the Fillies Mile but for me it looked more outstanding than it really was and I have that win only 1lb higher than her Moyglare win. I rate that form just about good enough to win a poor Guineas but worthy of only a place in a good year. Like AFB she didn't appear to be as highly thought of at the beginning of her 2yo season as she was later on when she made big improvement. I wonder if she'll train on but even if she does I see her as more of an Oaks filly anyway.I rate Lumiere's Cheveley Park win good enough to beat or match the most recent winners of the 1000. As she's only raced over 6f there has to be a question if she'll get the mile but if she does and Johnston has her at peak form I think she's the one to beat. Some of my bets are placed just on value grounds but my favourite bets are when I'm in disagreement with all the public ratings and I think the market has the wrong fav, this is one of those occasions so I'm also really looking forward to the race.


Good morning figgis, Yes a cracker, I was against AFB on breeding + poor value, Ground etc, Lumiere s dam could well have been group class, and yes I have Lumiere fav with concern of racing style and if it can be controlled, she will stretch them for sure.

Report metro john May 1, 2016 8:31 AM BST

Apr 30, 2016 -- 9:09PM, jamesp wrote:


PS The tongue tie for Ballydoyle is rather off-putting (following Air Force Blue's dismal performance with one yesterday).


Interesting runner nonetheless, no sprinting profile on form, improvement was forthcoming up in the trip. So much speed in the race? Shortlisted here.

Report FELTFAIR May 1, 2016 10:53 AM BST
After all the time and effort put in by jamesp I hope you have an all green book.

Personally with my mistrust of fillies from two to three foremost in my mind I am going to back in the right proportions Minding win,Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks both e-w and hope to emerge financially unscathed.
Report geoff m May 1, 2016 11:08 AM BST
Figgis and Metro John if you have Lumiere as fav then surely Illuminate as Jamesp highlighted is a monstrous price @ 34.0 on here.
Did any of you see the gallop with Toormore and Estidhkaar they showed on RUK  i think.
She motored past Toormore who came out and won Bet 365 mile last week.
Yes the trip might be a concern but with the ever drying ground and forecast for a sunny morning @ Newmarket i think she stonking value.
One of the biggest ricks in a market ive seen for a long time.
If she goes off here @ 34.0 plus i thin i will give up punting/greening upLaugh.
A big fan of Minding and backed after Fillies Mile but with the drying conditions @ 2.38 no thanx.
Report A_T May 1, 2016 11:34 AM BST
Midweek for me
Report blackngold May 1, 2016 11:55 AM BST

May 1, 2016 -- 5:08AM, geoff m wrote:


Figgis and Metro John if you have Lumiere as fav then surely Illuminate as Jamesp highlighted is a monstrous price @ 34.0 on here.Did any of you see the gallop with Toormore and Estidhkaar they showed on RUK  i think. She motored past Toormore who came out and won Bet 365 mile last week.Yes the trip might be a concern but with the ever drying ground and forecast for a sunny morning @ Newmarket i think she stonking value.One of the biggest ricks in a market ive seen for a long time.If she goes off here @ 34.0 plus i thin i will give up punting/greening up.A big fan of Minding and backed after Fillies Mile but with the drying conditions @ 2.38 no thanx.


Totally agree with that, can put a line through her run in the USA on soft..would prefer it a bit faster today but she has the form to be bang in contention and is massive value.

Report Try My Best May 1, 2016 12:36 PM BST
I'm taking 2 against the field in Alice Springs who for me has been tenderly handled in some of the top class races from last year. 1m on good ground should be right up her street. The other is Blue Bayou. 75/1 on here is an insult of a price given the level of form she showed last year.
Report Figgis May 1, 2016 12:37 PM BST
Geoff, yes Illuminate's form is a lot better than some shorter in the market and so she's well overpriced on that. I just don't see her as a miler and I'm not confident about her training on, but I could be wrong and at the price I can understand anyone who's prepared to take the risk.
Report lewisham ranger May 1, 2016 12:47 PM BST
think lumiere will sit handy early and try to kick around the bushes. then the question will be answered about her staying. I can see the arguments for her but there is just some doubt niggling away at the back of my mind- they all finished in a heap in the cheveley park so you wonder if she really did have that much left in the tank. At one point it looked like she would kick away and win by four or five lengths but it didn't happen and she has an extra two furlongs to travel today.

most impressive piece of form for me was the gallop that ballydoyle put in last week on the morning line. know it was only a gallop and no idea what she beat but did look very impressive. when the rider asked her she just went whoosh, I think before then Aiden was unsure whether he'd run her here but that more than made his mind up.

her raking stride should be perfect for newmarket, whether she'll have enough in the tank to fend off the no doubt power packed finish of minding and  ryan moore I have no idea, but at the prices she looks to be the value to beat her stablemate.
Report penzance May 1, 2016 12:50 PM BST
has Obrien had a winner over here yet?
If people fancy Illuminate,what about
Blue Bayou?Big price imo,form tied
in with these and runs as though 1m
will suit.Stable could be in better
form also.Only run 4 times so improvement
still possible.E/W and a saver on Minding.
   GL ALL
Report GILLJAYSMOUSE May 1, 2016 12:52 PM BST
In fairness to mj he said she might not win that day as she had gone in her coat, but she would win the 1000 guineas and he has no reservations about the extra 2 furlongs...good value imo.
Report impossible123 May 1, 2016 1:02 PM BST
Will O'Brien redeem himself here? If so, which one? As for Lumiere staying the distance, she must 1st show she is able to settle during the race otherwise I reckon she'll be run out of it towards the end given the ground. But then I could not get it more wrong in the 2000G - my three selections finished in the last three places yesterday!
Report harry callaghan May 1, 2016 1:25 PM BST
tricky affair this, a very deep fillies classic and well up to scratch

minding must be some filly for moore to ride her over the other 2 fillies who have every chance on the book

well i have to say if this were to be run with cut in ground minding would look a good thing but it isn't so it tempers enthusiasm in regards taking the short odds

lumiere was my idea of the winner and conditions have come right for her so there are no excuses but i like lewisham ranger just have my doubts over the value of the form in the cheveley and with so many stronger stayers in the line up and a lot of speed present here i just don't think it is going to be easy for her, so she is regrettably passed over

i don't think you can be really confident of a solid bet here with so much pace likely but i like ballydoyle at the prices and there did appear to be a speed bias at the track yesterday so i can see her being up there the whole way from what i believe to be ok draw for her

pace seems very likely with fireglow, ballydoyle lumiere, jet setting and midweek all likely to be wanting to be on the speed, so depending on how it goes in theory it should suit a strong stayer/closer so there should be no excuses depending on the bias at the track on the day, in theory minding should get the perfect speed to chase and close the pace down if good enough so she would not be a lay for me and you may just get a price in running with the track players likely to be with the speed in front that she will be chasing, i could see the race collapsing so a strong stayer with speed will win the day(the obvious i know!!!)
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 1:43 PM BST
Lumiere suddenly very weak in the market (9/1 on here).  Nathra now the second favourite!
Report EastLower Gooner May 1, 2016 1:54 PM BST
ground looks pretty decent...
Report geoff m May 1, 2016 2:07 PM BST
Which way is the wind blowing today?. Willoughby says it could be advantageous to be held up with the head wind. De Sousa says tailwind
Report Charlton2005 May 1, 2016 3:29 PM BST
laid ballydoyle e/w. no chance at these odds

backed illumate and fireglow e/w

gl all
Report geoff m May 1, 2016 3:47 PM BST
Awesome.
Report Charlton2005 May 1, 2016 3:48 PM BST
boom
Report Try My Best May 1, 2016 3:48 PM BST
great performance and a lot of confidence in the market. Oaks a formality
Report EastLower Gooner May 1, 2016 3:50 PM BST
should go for the Derby...nothing to fear there.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2016 3:51 PM BST
Amazing that she had the pace to keep tabs early on with Luminere   -  was all over at halfway.
Report harry callaghan May 1, 2016 4:09 PM BST
top class performance from the winner well done winners

lovely not off ride from hefferman on the second and a no nonsense ride from moore on the winner, she looks a top class filly the winner and it would be interesting to see if she were to take in the derby in what looks a sub standard year for colts, we will see
Report Figgis May 1, 2016 4:11 PM BST
Very disappointing run from Lumiere but Minding looked like she could've won at any stage. Looks nailed on to get 12f in my view, difficult to see anything coming along to better that form before the Oaks, as long as she recovers well from this race it's hard to envisage her getting beat there. I'd expect better Derby contenders but very much doubt Coolmore would aim her there anyway. Well done winners.
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 4:29 PM BST
Well, Aidan O'Brien has finally managed to win the race with a top-class two-year-old, putting to bed the notion that he can't get them ready first time out in the Guineas.  Getting the 1-2-3 was a remarkable training performance.  I thought that Ballydoyle was given too much to do.  Lumiere and Illuminate blatantly failed to stay.  A very satisfactory result from the betting point of view... Happy
Report ffs May 1, 2016 4:30 PM BST
wd winners, what a performance - Jamesp the one thing I'm surprised you might have missed is that was Ballydoyle's third run in the tongue-tie, whereas yday AFB was first time out,

great thread, intrigued though by this...

" Charlton2005 • May 1, 2016 3:29 PM BST
laid ballydoyle e/w. no chance at these odds

backed illumate and fireglow e/w"


" Charlton2005 • May 1, 2016 3:48 PM BST
boom "
Report ffs May 1, 2016 4:32 PM BST

May 1, 2016 -- 10:29AM, jamesp wrote:


Well, Aidan O'Brien has finally managed to win the race with a top-class two-year-old, putting to bed the notion that he can't get them ready first time out in the Guineas.  Getting the 1-2-3 was a remarkable training performance.  I thought that Ballydoyle was given too much to do.  Lumiere and Illuminate blatantly failed to stay.  A very satisfactory result from the betting point of view...


well done, and great result, look forward to the next thread, ffs.

Report Sandown May 1, 2016 4:43 PM BST
Preliminary figures on Minding show that providing she stays (pedigree says she will, as do sectionals) she would win most Oaks. I'm dead against fillies running in the Derby ever since the Cape Verdi decision to pass on the Oaks. I did all my research back then and the record of fillies in the Derby is piss poor. Trying to influence Sheikh Mo through a torrent of emails (I'd backed her for the Oaks)was a total waste of time.
Report impossible123 May 1, 2016 4:51 PM BST
Brilliant performance from Minding, and deserve to be evens/odds-on for the Oaks. Will she go for the Irish equivalent or straight to the Epsom Oaks? Unlikely for the Derby given numerous stable companions but the Arc is a possibility I'd think.

And what a difference a day makes......I had the 1, 2 and 3, a 180% turnaround from the 2000G.
Report the bairn May 1, 2016 5:42 PM BST
every form and time guru can be wrong, just look at yesterdays 2000 result, but the guys who were putting up some of the horses to beat Minding was mind-boggling, after it beat Ballydoyle in Ireland, people were concentrating on excuses for the defeat instead of thinking, this is a machine, and it got even better next time, anybody who concentrates on ante-post betting should be worth a fortune today, especially if you only bet on the 1000 guineas. cheers.
Report harry callaghan May 1, 2016 6:07 PM BST
bit of a silly post bairn tbh considering how ballydoyle was ridden today, from a perfect draw and a track that was riding very speed favorable she was given a poor ride, not that she would of beaten the winner but it was impossible to make the ground up and she never had a prayer...moore knew it was a speed favouring track as he rode his filly forward compared to her other runs, i'd go as far as to say ballydoyle was just out for a run
Report FELTFAIR May 1, 2016 6:33 PM BST
LaughI did warn you bairn.
Report FELTFAIR May 1, 2016 6:33 PM BST
LaughI did warn you bairn.
Report Graeme83 May 1, 2016 6:38 PM BST
Ballydoyle was clearly ridden to not win. There's no doubt about that. Just the way it is really. Minding impressive. WD those who backed.
Report the bairn May 1, 2016 6:40 PM BST
Harry, as I said before, this is the best thread for informative discussion every year, when I saw Minding winning the Moyglare Ijust had the feeling it was special, but the comments on here over the last fortnight were farcical, really good contributers ended up like guessers. cheers.
Report Figgis May 1, 2016 6:51 PM BST
If Air Force Blue had bolted up yesterday, as many people said they expected him to, exactly the same thing could've been said about the punters who opposed him.
Report harry callaghan May 1, 2016 6:57 PM BST
well i've only posted once today but looking back you did say you thought she was a 1/5 shot so you were right!!! however i just wouldn't of belittled ballydoyle like you have, especially considering how she was ridden today, you certainly haven't got a victory out of it in my eyes, considering ballydoyle beat minding on g/f in the debutante and minding turned it round on soft in the moyglare it was hardly conclusive evidence

anyway you seem intent on shoving it up anyone who had a difference of opinion to yourself and have posted such, she certainly had the best form and confirmed it at 11/10 so well done you got the money cheers
Report The_LUFCwaffe May 1, 2016 7:41 PM BST
I think Ballydoyle would have won this with a clear run. Just watched the race again a couple of times and its clear that Moore had already got to work on Minding while Ballydoyle was still pulling double blocked in at the back.

A poor ride from Heffernan? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, the apparent plum draw worked against him. A split second miss on the gates opening and the field were already making their way across him.

How does Buick get away with flagrant abuse of the rules. He was supposed to run in a straight line up to the orange marker pole. Whats the point in having rules and then ignore them
Report penzance May 1, 2016 7:51 PM BST
Minding had that won from way out,
Ballydole didn't get the clearest
of runs but didn't lose that much
momentum,Minding clearly the best
horse in the race.
Report sintonian May 1, 2016 7:59 PM BST
Minding was awesome but quite surprised she is Evens for the Oaks.
Report Meyer Lansky May 1, 2016 9:05 PM BST
Moore kept it simple and Minding won well ... As for the Oaks well on form she must have a decent chance if she goes there,but Epsom doesn't suit every horse.
Report eric_morris May 1, 2016 9:40 PM BST
No offence mate but you only had Minding 3rd best of APOB's for a long time with also other stables hosses backed around 9 in total and you mentioned covering on Minding? I have a lot of experience antepost and would be amazed if you broke even.


jamesp
jamesp 01 May 16 16:29 Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Well, Aidan O'Brien has finally managed to win the race with a top-class two-year-old, putting to bed the notion that he can't get them ready first time out in the Guineas.  Getting the 1-2-3 was a remarkable training performance.  I thought that Ballydoyle was given too much to do.  Lumiere and Illuminate blatantly failed to stay.  A very satisfactory result from the betting point of view... Happy
Report eric_morris May 1, 2016 10:14 PM BST
She'd shortened to 11/4 and other than a cover at 14/1 you still preferred Ballydoyle well into your book. You should change your username to Houdini if you managed to get out of that book unscathed mathematically. You give a lot of fun to others discussing chances but think you need to be more genuine on your darts missing way off on this race.
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 10:29 PM BST
Eric, I don't need to justify my betting strategy, I've been betting antepost for over 30 years, but for your information I had several bets on Minding last autumn at 14/1 and 10/1, and a further top-up at 5/1. She ended up being the sixth best winner in my book after Lumiere, Illuminate, Nathra, Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks. I made £3,931 profit on the race. How did you do on the race?
Report eric_morris May 1, 2016 10:39 PM BST
Nope cant see any mention of the 5/1 just a cover at 14/1 and you still preferred Ballydoyle when Minding was 11/4 so you are unlikely to have been able to bail out of all your early larger bets on Illumniate amd Lumiere. You fancied Ballydoyle and Alice Springs ahead of Minding well into your book which by definition means you had more on them (and the others) than Minding at decent prices. Just be genuine as your posts dont add up to a profitable boo kthey add up to a losing book. Good luck on next years race antepost is getting tougher each year i have 34 years experience and it aint getting easier at the poor prices these days.
Report eric_morris May 1, 2016 10:41 PM BST
I dont read this as a 4k profit mathematically ..


jamesp25 Aug 15 08:06Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
The Gr.2 Debutante Stakes looked a high-class and competitive renewal beforehand, so it was no surprise to see the impressive winner Ballydoyle installed as the new favourite for next year's Guineas.  She has clearly improved considerably since her narrow defeat in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she took an age to reach top gear (perhaps, in retrospect, she was still showing signs of greenness on that occasion), and following her bloodless maiden victory at Newmarket she looked a completely different filly this time, showing plenty of natural speed and smart acceleration to dismiss some very useful opponents in a very respectable winning time.  This full sister to Misty For Me (multiple Gr.1 winner over 8-10f) should have no trouble getting a mile and should be capable of winning at the top level.  The post-race quotes of 10-1 for the Guineas seemed fair enough (in the context of the cramped antepost odds we've come to expect from bookmakers over the last few years), so I've added her to my portfolio of bets for next year's race (alongside Illuminate and Lumiere, with a smaller wager on Tanaza), despite the obvious worries about the trainer's ability to get a fancied filly ready for the race.  (I wonder whether others, like me, were repeatedly knocked back by bookmakers and had trouble getting their bets on in full, though I did eventually manage to get my entire bet on at 10-1 by spreading it among several different firms, before they all cut the price to 8-1!!.)  I guess the next stop will be the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, and it will take a very smart filly to beat her there.

There didn't appear to be any obvious hard luck stories for the beaten runners, but Alice Springs (now out to 25-1 for the Guineas) ran a bit freely and was unable to confirm earlier Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes form with Turret Rocks.  Runner-up Minding showed a lot of promise without being able to match the winner's speed.  Most Beautiful failed to improve for the step up to 7f and (despite her pedigree) looks a speedy type who may benefit from a drop back to 6f.

The Gr.3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville cut up quite badly and the form looks quite ordinary, with the Hannon-trained duo Great Page and Marenko fighting out a tight finish.  No Guineas clues either in the Gr.1 Prix Morny, where Pascal Bary's filly Tourny was outclassed (and possibly unsuited by the soft ground), finishing well beaten behind Shalaa.

The well regarded Coolmore made an encouraging debut in the mile fillies' maiden at the Curragh and should come on considerably for the experience.

Latest Guineas betting (best available odds from six leading bookmakers): 8-1 Ballydoyle, 16-1 Illuminate, Lumiere, Tanaza, Besharah, 25-1 bar


jamesp13 Sep 15 15:48Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Oh dear  My initial thought is that Ballydoyle didn't find much on the dead ground there.  Perhaps she's better on fast ground.  All the same, it's disappointing that she had Minding in trouble, but then got tired in the closing stages.  Did Alice Springs put up an improved performance for the application of the hood?  Or was Ballydoyle below her best?



jamesp13 Sep 15 16:46Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
It looks like the ground is fairly testing up the straight (the winning time was 5s slower than standard), and I suspect that both Tanaza and Blue Bayou (and, more obviously, Great Page and Now Or Never) ran below their previous best.  I also think that Joseph O'Brien may have been ill-advised in trying to repeat the forcing tactics that worked so successfully on board Ballydoyle in the Debutante Stakes.  Trying to make all in that ground was always going to be a bit risky, with the possibility that she would get tired in the closing stages.  I'm therefore not wholly convinced that the form should be taken at face value.  It's quite possible that Ballydoyle will be able to reverse the form with different tactics on quicker ground.  Ladbrokes were far from convinced, offering Minding at a stand-out 14-1 for the Guineas (had a saver at those odds) (subsequently cut to 10-1).  Alice Springs looks a tricky ride: she didn't seem to want to go through with her effort.  Most bookmakers now go 8-1 joint favourites Ballydoyle and Minding (the latter is 10-1 with a couple of firms), and it's 16-1 bar.



jamesp13 Sep 15 17:47Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Yes, it sounds like they still regard Ballydoyle as their best filly.

There have been remarkably few classy performances over 6f+ by juvenile fillies so far this season.  Illuminate, Besharah and La Rioja have all impressed over 6f (though the last-named is very unlikely to be aimed at the Guineas).  Ballydoyle looked very good in the Debutante Stakes.  Antonoé was impressive over a mile in France.  But that's the sum total (so far).  But there are still a few weeks of the season to go.  The Rockfel, Cheveley Park Stakes, Fillies' Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac are all potentially significant Guineas pointers, and it's conceivable that something might pop up in one of the late-season Listed/Group 3 races.





jamesp27 Sep 15 23:23Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Coolmore is clearly on the upgrade (and still learning), but my initial impression is that this afternoon's Group 3 was quite an ordinary race, with only a length covering the first four home (and a 90-rated filly beaten 2½ lengths in fifth).  She looks a real staying type (only just getting up close home, outstaying the placed fillies) and I doubt if she will have the speed to be a Guineas filly.  Her jockey remarked afterwards that the filly would definitely get a mile and a quarter, while her trainer added that she is like her sister Marvellous as she stays well (the implication being that she is more of a staying type than her brother Gleneagles).  Marvellous won the Irish Guineas on soft ground (in a very slow time) and was then campaigned over 12f (in the Oaks and Irish Oaks), and I imagine that Coolmore will follow a similar path.  I thought the post-race quotes of 16-1 and 14-1 for the Guineas were plenty short enough, and I wouldn't be tempted to back her for the Guineas at this stage at those odds.  I still rate Ballydoyle and Minding as Aidan's main Guineas hopes at this stage (especially the former).


I have decided to have a 'saver' on Antonoé at 25-1 for the Guineas (the price has since been cut to 20-1).  The price reflects the possibility that she might be aimed at the French classics rather than Newmarket, but if she wins well on Sunday there will be an expectation that she will be aimed at the Guineas


It will be interesting to see the shape of the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile when final declarations are revealed later this morning.  Minding and Promising Run bring the best form, but John Gosden's filly Nathra was very impressive last time and I have backed her (as a 'saver' in my Guineas portfolio) at 25-1 for the Guineas



jamesp07 Oct 15 15:26Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Figgis, I take a slightly different view of the Moyglare result.  I got the impression that Ballydoyle's connections were very pleased with her effort there, as she wasn't suited by the sticky ground nearly so well as the winner.  I would confidently expect her to reverse placings with Minding on faster ground. 





jamesp15 Oct 15 16:36Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
It was hard not to have been impressed by Minding's victory in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile last weekend.  She was simply in a different league from the others, and the form looks very strong - I'm sure the runner-up Nathra is a smart filly in her own right, and she finished clear of the very useful Hawksmoor and Coolmore.  She will be champion two-year-old filly in Europe, and rightly so.  As far as the Guineas betting is concerned, it should be noted that her two latest wins at the top level have been on yielding ground, whereas on her previous start (on fast ground) she was comfortably beaten by her stablemate Ballydoyle.  One imagines that the state of the ground will dictate early season classic targets next year for these two smart fillies: Minding is likely to go where there is some cut in the ground, while Ballydoyle will go where there is faster ground.  This makes ante-post betting very tricky for anyone who hasn't already taken a position on the race.  Latest betting: 7-2 Minding, 6-1 Ballydoyle, 8-1 Lumiere, 20-1 bar.  Coral's price of 20-1 Illuminate is surely too big - she was coming back from an 11-week break when beaten half a length by Lumiere in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she came to win the race and just got tired in the final 100 yards.  She's doesn't have as much physical scope as the winner, but she should get the mile (her prep race over 7f at Newbury should tell us whether she'll get the trip) and is a smart and progressive filly (officially rated 114), so 20-1 is way too big (she's generally 14-1 with other firms).





jamesp19 Mar 16 13:48Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Although the amounts being traded on Betfair are very small at this time of year, it's interesting to note recent price movements concerning the Aidan O'Brien-trained entries.  Ballydoyle has been quite weak for some weeks now and is currently trading at 9.4 (to back), with no one wanting to back her in the 'lay' column (just a couple of quid at 19.5 and 20).  The favourite Minding, on the other hand, remains solid at around 3.65, having been matched at bigger prices in recent weeks, though there are only small amounts in the 'lay' column.  Alice Springs (last matched at 50, nothing in the 'lay' column) and Coolmore (last matched at 75) are very weak.  There has been no move for any of Aidan's other entries.  So it looks as though people are still expecting Minding to be the one, but it should not be forgotten that she was comfortably beaten by Ballydoyle when the pair met on 'good to firm' ground in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last August.  It's quite likely that Ballydoyle was unsuited by the yielding ground when Minding reversed placings next time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.  On fast ground it would be no surprise to see Ballydoyle reverse the Moyglare Stud Stakes form, but (as we all know) it's impossible to predict whether any of these fillies will be 'forward' enough to do themselves justice on Guineas day...




jamesp22 Mar 16 11:13Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Recent bookmaker price movements: Lumiere's odds were trimmed a few weeks ago and she is now 6/1 (5/1 in a place) (she was a general 8/1 shot over the winter); Illuminate has recently been cut by Coral to 16/1 (from a stand-out 25/1) and is now generally 14/1-16/1 (20/1 in a place). Minding's odds have been cut by most firms and she is now a top price 11/4 (from 3/1). Ballydoyle has been pushed out to 8/1 (from 6/1) by Power.

In view of Criquette Head-Maarek's record in the 1000 Guineas, Midweek is a very interesting runner.  She ran promisingly on debut (despite finishing well adrift of the smart Antonoé) and stepped up on that effort next time, running out a comfortable winner over a mile at Saint-Cloud (heavy ground, slow winning time).  The form is nothing special, but she's superbly bred (by Motivator out of a half-sister to Reams Of Verse and Elmaamul), so if she shows enough speed to win (or run well) on Thursday, we could well see her line up for the Guineas.  I've had a little bit of 50/1 and 40/1 for the Guineas
Report eric_morris May 1, 2016 10:54 PM BST
You might have just forgotten to post your other bets on Minding other than the 14/1 cover fair do's. Think you only mention the cover on her right up until she is very short. As i say good luck no offence plenty like reading your updates.
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 11:33 PM BST
Look Eric, I don't see that there is a requirement to post every single bet on here. I backed every single one of the 16 runners plus six non-runners in the race. I would have made at least a few hundred pounds whatever the result, even if Epsom Icon had won the race. When I mention 'covering' bets, it doesn't just end there, I continue to invest and add to my portfolio of bets. Bets on Minding included £500 @ 14/1 and £800 @ 10/1. Total stakes this year exceeded £15,000, with a return of £19,000. If you don't believe me, I'll send you a complete list of my bets, including the stakes, odds and dates, plus aggregated data for all Betfair Exchange and **** betting activity on the race. I prefer to keep these details private, but since you have publicly questioned my integrity I have set out the figures here. I don't take kindly to your insinuation.
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 11:34 PM BST
**** They don't seem to like other betting exchanges being mentioned on here...!
Report jamesp May 1, 2016 11:38 PM BST
Bets on non-runners: actually more than just six (I was thinking only of the bets struck with bookmakers), there were some additional ones (to small stakes at big odds) here on Betfair.
Report eric_morris May 2, 2016 12:07 AM BST
Well done making a profit.
Report Graeme83 May 2, 2016 12:34 AM BST
No evidence required. You deserve every penny of your profit.
Report ffs May 2, 2016 12:56 AM BST
+1 to James,

antepost betting is a beautiful thing but you've always got to move with the results, personally I had my eggs firmly in the Ballydoyle basket but still made a handsome profit on Minding, so ... aren't exchanges great !? .. you can back a loser and end up a winner :D

Now, all that said, Minding is my idea of an Oaks filly through and through, while Ballydoyle (weather permitting) will win the Irish 1000 and Coronation stakes. Maybe I'm biased but looking at the sectionals she beat Minding from 1f down to the line, missed the break and poster a horrible 1f sectional, full of running at the end - would have been close if she had Lumiere's position.

Arc has to be in consideration for Minding, esp w her versatility ground-wise.
Report the bairn May 2, 2016 1:15 AM BST
have you guys thought, that if Ballydoyle had used up her speed early to keep up with Lumiere and Midweek she may not have finished so well. cheers.
Report eric_morris May 2, 2016 7:21 AM BST
jamesp you dont need to explain to me that you can fancy the wrong horse to win right up to the race and still win on the race if you have a pecking order of profitable horses in your book. What would you have won if Ballydoyle had won it?
Report eric_morris May 2, 2016 7:26 AM BST
Oh and on posting up bets it is worth either posting all your bookie bets or none on here. Obviously the exchange amounts are very small by comparison before the race for tweaks to your book so dont need mentioning.
Report eric_morris May 2, 2016 7:57 AM BST
Probably the best way, avoiding amounts which as you say can be sensitive, is to post up current profit pecking order (and loss nearer the race when the runners are well defined). Also a desired pecking order to which you would like your book to be so we can all understand how we would prefer our book to be if we could achieve it mathematically. A final position could be posted day of race.

For example (this doesn't reflect your position on the race it is just an example)

Current (or final if day of race) Profit pecking order-

Your main fancied order could be in brackets in the actual profit order (if you dont have a chance to change your book it is useful to others to know which you think will win the race rather than which you have to win the most and are hoping will win the race)

1 Lumiere (4) means she is no 1 profit horse but you would prefer her as no 4
2 Illuminate (2)
3 Nathra (5)
4 Ballydoyle (1)
5 Turret Rocks (10)
6 Minding (3)
7 ..
8 ..

-----------------
Loss horses  pecking order if any under a line




jamesp01 May 16 22:29Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,116 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Eric, I don't need to justify my betting strategy, I've been betting antepost for over 30 years, but for your information I had several bets on Minding last autumn at 14/1 and 10/1, and a further top-up at 5/1. She ended up being the sixth best winner in my book after Lumiere, Illuminate, Nathra, Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks. I made £3,931 profit on the race. How did you do on the race?
Report sintonian May 2, 2016 8:21 AM BST
James, there is only one person questioning your results and that's Eric. We'll see what he achieves in the Derby given he has taken to posting his bets again after a 2 year hiatus.
Report kincsem May 2, 2016 8:44 AM BST
eric_morris was the first poster I blocked.  crags the second.
And I have a high drivel threshold.
I like forumites to give their own opinion and reason for it, or their own analysis, right or wrong.
Report geoff m May 2, 2016 9:54 AM BST
Re watching  the race a few times Given the swap in draws and the same run of the race that would have been mighty close between Minding and Ballydoyle.
Moore said they didnt go a great pace so that disadvantaged  Ballydoyle with the run trapped on the rail.
Good to see the form book hold up with the 123 as they finished in the Moyglare.

Thats the beauty of exchanges especially for  the guineas you can still build a good portfolio and green book whatever the outcome if you keep your eye on the ball not the case or as easy with cheltenham i find.

Likewise as james with the changing conditions/drying ground I had Minding down the pecking order with Illuminate/Balldoyle/ALice Springs/Turret Rocks ahead just on a price basis on the day of the race.

James you dont have to prove anything to anyone re your bets .Keep up the good invaluable work and contribution allways an interesting read.
Ignore Eric(graham) he thinks hes the king of antepost
Report FELTFAIR May 2, 2016 10:51 AM BST
Time to start a Derby(2016)thread jamesp.Remember to post all your bets including those that just cross your mind. Also when you win you can`t be smug but merely accept the plaudits of your readers.

I for one appreciated the information you provided paricularly the naming of possible participants enabling the checking out of credentials.
Report Howellsy May 2, 2016 10:53 AM BST
Yep great thread as always. Minding by far the best.
Report The_LUFCwaffe May 2, 2016 11:09 AM BST
The point here is that Ballydoyle shouldn't have needed to use her speed up early.

If you had your money on Lumiere, then it was done in the first 50 yards. Buick made an illegal move at the start, so if he'd passed the post first the horse would have been disqualified in the Stewards room. You have to keep your horse in draw order until you reach the marker pole....Buick deliberately didn't do that, and it took out all the horses drawn higher.

Lumiere finished last as it was, and Coolmore didn't complain as they had the 1,2,3 anyway.



"the bairn
02 May 16 01:15
Joined: 06 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 2,061 | Blogger: the bairn's blog
have you guys thought, that if Ballydoyle had used up her speed early to keep up with Lumiere and Midweek she may not have finished so well. cheers."
Report jamesp May 2, 2016 12:48 PM BST
geoff m, I agree that Ballydoyle looked a bit unlucky, as she fell out of the stalls and couldn't get a good position in a race where it was important to lie handy on the pace.  I wonder whether Heffernan deliberately looked for a slow start, he certainly didn't seem to be in any hurry to move forward from the back of the field until it was too late.  Maybe he was instructed to ride her for second place, or is this straying into the realms of conspiracy theory??  I've no doubt that Michael Tabor and friends landed a nice touch with Minding, and well done to them for that - it was a perfectly executed plan and Ryan Moore rode the perfect race on the winner.

Illuminate (non-stayer, not developed physically as well as I'd hoped), Lumiere (far too keen in the preliminaries, ran too bad to be true), Nathra (simply not in the same league as the winner, despite the fitness edge) and Ballydoyle would each have netted me a bigger profit than Minding (whom I'd left slightly under-backed due to the perceived lack of value in her odds, bearing in mind the trainer's record with top fillies in the Guineas), but I've absolutely no complaints or regrets.  The best filly won.  Well done, all backers!
Report Madhu May 2, 2016 12:58 PM BST
Just a note to jamesp to say excellent thread as always- much respect- and look forward to the next one. As for eric_morris- get on yer bike mate with all your tripe. Your ‘researched’ derogatory personal insult is totally haphazard, misplaced and uncalled for. Just confrontational twaddle.
Report eric_morris May 2, 2016 1:19 PM BST
There's no point in posting up 'some prices' that dont include the ones that supposedly made the profit on your book. Not questioning the discussion side of things.
Report layingisthewayforward May 3, 2016 1:41 PM BST
Forget about james how the feck did Charlton2005 make a profit !
Report EastLower Gooner May 3, 2016 4:45 PM BST
Midweek is better than that performance....cheminaud had no luck whatsoever...surprised more was made of his ride and actually despite all this the filly was making decent headway up the rail before a final barging match ended her chance.

Not saying she can reverse form but maybe look out for her when she steps up in trip....maybe something like the Nassau....
Report Charlton2005 May 3, 2016 8:10 PM BST
layingisthewayforward 03 May 16 13:41 Joined: 08 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 2,116 | Blogger: layingisthewayforward's blog
Forget about james how the feck did Charlton2005 make a profit !


backed the 100/1 4th in the 4 places market at 11
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