Horse Antepost
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With Royal Ascot underway, I guess it's as good a time as any to start off a new discussion thread on next year's fillies' classic...
Once in a while, a filly catches the eye with an authoritative early-season win in Listed company, marking herself out as a smart prospect with classic aspirations, eg Attraction (Hilary Needler Trophy, Beverley, 4 June 2003), Natagora (Prix la Fleche, Longchamp, 14 June 2007), Sky Lantern (Coolmore Stud EBF Sprint Stakes, Naas, 4 June 2012). The only filly to have made an impression at Listed level already this season is Richard Hannon's Great Page, who won the same Listed race at Naas that Sky Lantern took three years ago. The trouble is, she was put firmly in her place by stablemate Illuminate at Salisbury on her previous start (albeit the winner, making her debut, was receiving a few pounds) and I get the impression that the Naas race didn't have much strength in depth this year (the runner-up, still a maiden, ran poorly next time when up in trip). Several fillies have made a good impression in Listed and conditions races during the first part of the season, but nothing has really caught my eye.
The Queen Mary Stakes and the Albany Stakes this week will help to sort the wheat from the chaff...
Once in a while, a filly catches the eye with an authoritative early-season win in Listed company, marking herself out as a smart prospect with classic aspirations, eg Attraction (Hilary Needler Trophy, Beverley, 4 June 2003), Natagora (Prix la Fleche, Longchamp, 14 June 2007), Sky Lantern (Coolmore Stud EBF Sprint Stakes, Naas, 4 June 2012). The only filly to have made an impression at Listed level already this season is Richard Hannon's Great Page, who won the same Listed race at Naas that Sky Lantern took three years ago. The trouble is, she was put firmly in her place by stablemate Illuminate at Salisbury on her previous start (albeit the winner, making her debut, was receiving a few pounds) and I get the impression that the Naas race didn't have much strength in depth this year (the runner-up, still a maiden, ran poorly next time when up in trip). Several fillies have made a good impression in Listed and conditions races during the first part of the season, but nothing has really caught my eye.
The Queen Mary Stakes and the Albany Stakes this week will help to sort the wheat from the chaff...
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The Queen Mary Stakes has produced a number of top-class (or nearly top-class) milers over recent years, notably Marling (1991 winner), Culture Vulture (1991 second), Attraction (2003 winner), Flashy Wings (2005 winner), Simply Perfect (2006 second) and Rizeena (2013 winner). But, as a general rule, most fillies that have performed well in the race over the years have tended to be sprinters, best at distances short of a mile. This year's winner Acapulco was hugely impressive, probably the best winner of the race (and also the finest physical specimen) since Jealous Again in 2009, but jockey Ryan Moore's post-race comments are the key to this filly: "Acapulco is very special. Wesley said she's like a 4yo and she rides like one. She's got a great attitude and loads of pace. I wasn't even quick away. I just cruised up and she had far too many gears for them. I'd say she's all speed." In the short term, it's hard to envisage her getting beaten on fast ground over 5-6f against her own sex, but in the longer term there must be considerable doubts about her ability to stay much beyond sprint distances.
Of perhaps slightly greater interest is the runner-up Easton Angel, who was probably not helped by her draw (she was drawn in stall 1, while the winner was drawn 20) but nonetheless came with a smooth run to win her race on the far side, keeping on strongly to chase the winner inside the final furlong. Without Acapulco she would have been an impressive winner, and she is a very nice prospect. She travels well and has a nice turn of foot. A reproduction of her Queen Mary run should enable her to pick up a Group race before long and she should have no trouble getting 6f. Whether she ultimately gets a mile is debatable: she's by Dark Angel, whose most notable progeny are best at up to a mile, out of a lightly-raced dam Staceymac who won over 5f (stayed 6f), who is by Elnadim out of mare called Neat Shilling (by Bob Back) who was a sister to Fill The Bill (10f winner, stayed 12-14f on the flat, winning hurdler) and half-sister to Riddlesdown (12-14f winner), Vitznau (winner up to 8½f) and other winners up to 12f. So there is plenty of stamina further back in her pedigree, but her immediate breeding (by Dark Angel out of an Elnadim mare) and style of racing (she has shown plenty of speed in her three races to date) suggest that she's unlikely to get a mile later on. Her future performances over 6f this season should give us a chance to assess her long-term prospects of getting 7f and a mile. At this stage, however, I doubt if the filly's owners and trainer are looking beyond 6f. |
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Regardless of what happens in the Chesham Stakes this afternoon, where the highly regarded Ballydoyle is expected to step up considerably on her debut performance, I have decided to open my account for next year's Guineas by backing Richard Hannon's filly Illuminate. This filly was already on the radar, of course, following her highly promising winning debut at Salisbury, where she comfortably beat her stablemate Great Page (subsequent 3 length winner of a Listed race at Naas), but the way she won yesterday's Albany Stakes was very impressive. She travelled really well and produced a smart turn of foot to take control of the race, and she was going away from the placed fillies at the finish. I like the fact that there was a significant gap back to the fourth (Fireglow, beaten about 5 lengths by the winner). The winning time (1m 13.20s) smashed the race record. I rate that performance roughly on a par with the Albany winning performances of Memory (2010), Newfangled (2012) and Cursory Glance (2014), and not far off Kiyoshi (2013). Considering that Kiyoshi and Newfangled were both around 10-1 for the Guineas after their Albany wins, I thought the 20-1 offered by a couple of firms for Illuminate to win the Guineas was a very fair price, so I've had a lumpy bet on her at those odds. She's a lovely physical specimen with plenty of scope, she's highly regarded, is very straightforward and has a great temperament, and Richard Hughes reported that the filly gives the feel of being more of a potential miler than a sprinter. She's not 100% certain to get a mile, being by first-season sire Zoffany out of an unraced daughter of Green Desert (half-sister, though, to 12f performer Lady Catherine), but she was staying on well at the end of a fast-run stiff 6f yesterday and she shapes as though she will certainly get at least 7f this season (so the Moyglare Stud Stakes is likely to be on the agenda).
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Very good run from Ballydoyle in the Chesham Stakes, just failing to overhaul the useful winner, but on the basis of that run she doesn't look quick enough (or good enough) to be a Guineas contender at this stage. But there's a long way to go, she appears to be highly regarded, it was a big step up, and she's sure to continue improving.
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I made it a below par Albany. I think the winner will need to improve as I would expect that level of form to be overtaken as the season goes on.
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I respect your opinion, Figgis, and of course I agree that Illuminate will need to improve by a good few pounds, but I'm surprised that you made it a below-par Albany. Until racecourse evidence suggests otherwise, I'm prepared to believe that the two placed fillies (both unbeaten going into the race) are quite smart fillies in their own right; certainly Kevin Ryan had high expectations for the runner-up. One of the factors I consider when assessing the form of a race is how strung out the beaten runners are; in the case of a race like the Albany Stakes, where there is usually a good-sized field, I look at the distance back to the filly finishing fourth. It's interesting to compare the last ten runnings of the Albany (since the course was reconstructed in 2005); here are the winners, with the distance back to the fourth and the winning time (all run on 'good to firm' ground unless otherwise stated):
2015 Illuminate 5l (1m 13.20s) 2014 Cursory Glance 2½l (1m 13.85s) 2013 Kiyoshi 4l (1m 13.82s) 2012 Newfangled 4½l (1m 16.78s) (soft) 2011 Samitar 3l (1m 15.93s) (good to soft) 2010 Memory 3l (1m 13.70s) 2009 Habaayib 6l (1m 15.63s) 2008 Cuis Ghaire 2½l (1m 15.72s) 2007 Nijoom Dubai 3½l (1m 15.55s) (good to soft) 2006 Sander Camillo 4½l (1m 14.27s) Not only did Illuminate smash the race record winning time (by 0.50s), but there was a good gap back to the fourth. To win a Group race in such good style on just her second start marks her out as a very smart prospect (in my opinion) - in the same bracket as fillies like White Moonstone (2010), Memory (2010), Discourse (2011), Lyric Of Light (2011), Certify (2012), Newfangled (2012), Tapestry (2013) and Cursory Glance (2014). A Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 107 puts her on the same mark (after two starts) as Cursory Glance, a couple of pounds ahead of White Moonstone, Memory, Certify and Newfangled, and a few pounds behind Discourse, Lyric Of Light and Tapestry. She's the joint second-highest rated winner of the race in the last ten years (after Kiyoshi). I think Illuminate will certainly be capable of picking up a Group 2 race this season and has the potential to win at Group 1 level. |
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Jamesp, a problem with a lot of those fillies mentioned is for one reason or another most of them didn't go on to do much at the top level after their 2yo season, so it's difficult to say if they were rated rightly or not. Time wise, the track was riding very fast this year and an easy comparison can be made with the 3yo Gp1 on the same card. Personally I have her 5lbs behind the performance Cursory Glance put up to win last year. Not a massive difference but a significant one that will need to be bridged if she's to become a top class miler. She may still improve, Sky Lantern from the same yard made progress in the latter part of her 2yo year.
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Interesting. I take the point about several of those fillies failing to progress after their juvenile season, which suggests that early-maturing precocious types are often overtaken by later developers, but it's just one of those unfortunate things that several of them failed to reappear at three due to injury (Newfangled was fatally injured as a juvenile, White Moonstone was retired due to injury after her two-year-old season, Discourse and Lyric Of Light did both reappear in the Guineas but ran poorly and were promptly retired, Certify missed the whole of her second season due to injury, and Cursory Glance also met with a setback and hasn't run this season). Like you say, it's difficult to say whether they would have progressed at three.
I don't produce my own speed/time ratings, but I feel you may have underestimated the Albany form slightly. We'll see  For what it's worth, the three-year-old Muhaarar (OR 117) appeared to put up a very smart performance in the Commonwealth Cup, winning in a time of 1m 12.05s (1.15s faster than Illuminate in the Albany). 1.15s equates to about 7 lengths (according to the BHA scale). It's difficult, if not impossible, to apply WFA in these situations, but two-year-olds would get 29lbs from three-year-olds over 6f at this time of year, so for Illuminate (9st 0) to run 7 lengths slower than Muhaarar (9st 3) is not at all bad. |
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Time to take a quick look at the leading juvenile fillies so far this season. For ease of reference, they are listed in order of most recent Racing Post Rating (RPR):
113 Acapulco (W.Ward) -31 (17 June: Ascot 5f fillies Group 2, won by 1½l) 107 Illuminate (R.Hannon) -11 (19 June: Ascot 6f fillies Group 3, won by 1½l) 107 Easton Angel (M.Dods) -112 (17 June: Ascot 5f fillies Group 2, beaten 1½l) 104 Fly On The Night (A.Giorgi) -111 (29 June: Chantilly 5f Group 3, won by 1¼l) 102 Ashadihan (K.Ryan) -12 (19 June: Ascot 6f fillies Group 3, beaten 1½l) 102 Elegant Supermodel (J-P.Perruchot) -113 (19 June: Ascot 6f fillies Group 3, beaten 1½l) 100 Most Beautiful (D.Wachman) -411 (28 June: Curragh 6f fillies Group 3, won by 1l) 100 Tourny (P.Bary) -412 (29 June: Chantilly 5f Group 3, beaten 1¼l) 98 Besharah (W.Haggas) -113 (17 June: Ascot 5f fillies Group 2, beaten 4l) 98 Only Mine (J.G.Murphy) -42 (28 June: Curragh 6f fillies Group 3, beaten 1l) 97 Ballydoyle (A.O’Brien) -42 (20 June: Ascot 7f listed race, beaten shd) I have already posted my comments on the Royal Ascot runners, with the Gr.3 Albany Stakes winner Illuminate the only filly to have produced a performance exciting enough (allowing for likely stamina limitations) to merit consideration for the Guineas. Acapulco was an even more impressive winner of the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, but it's hard to see her reproducing that kind of performance over trips in excess of 6f. Ballydoyle, runner-up in the Listed Chesham Stakes, remains a filly of some potential and looks just the type to continue progressing, but her current odds for the Guineas (as short as 12-1 with one firm, generally 16-1, 20-1 in a couple of places) are way too short, based on what she has actually achieved on the racecourse. She has been entered for a 6f fillies maiden at Naas next week. Easton Angel (runner-up in the Queen Mary) and Ashadihan (runner-up in the Albany) have already shown themselves to be very useful, but both are quite speedily bred (by Dark Angel and Kyllachy respectively) and are therefore disregarded (as far as the Guineas is concerned) at this stage. Incidentally, Acapulco and Easton Angel have both been entered for the Nunthorpe (which tells you all you need to know about their prospects of getting a mile next year...). Italian-trained filly Fly On The Night was quite an impressive winner of the Gr.3 Prix du Bois at Chantilly earlier this week, and she should take some beating in upcoming races such as the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin, but this speedily-bred filly (by Equiano) has virtually no chance of staying beyond sprint distances. David Wachman's Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes winner Most Beautiful, on the other hand, looks sure to stay a mile in due course (she's by Canford Cliffs out of a 10f Listed winner who stayed 12f) and is certainly a filly to follow for the rest of the season. When she won her maiden at Navan (where she beat subsequent Gr.2 Norfolk Stakes winner Waterloo Bridge), her trainer said that he's always liked her, but that she's still big and weak, so there should be plenty more to come from her, but with only a length covering the first three home in the Curragh race it's hard to get too excited about the bare form of that race. Katie's Diamond scraped home (by a neck) in the Listed Empress Stakes at HQ last Saturday, to maintain her unbeaten record. She's a useful filly and should stay further, but it's hard to envisage her developing into a Group 1 filly. Aidan O'Brien has had a couple of noteworthy maiden winners in the last week. Minding, runner-up to Dermot Weld's Tanaza over 7f at Leopardstown previously, won a slowly-run four-runner 6f maiden (RPR 90) at the same track last week. She's bred to be smart, being by Galileo out of Gr.1 winner Lillie Langtry, and she won very easily, but she's still got a lot to prove. It's not often that an Aidan O'Brien- trained juvenile filly wins impressively on debut, but that's exactly what the well-backed Alice Springs achieved at the Curragh last week, beating the Jim Bolger-trained newcomer Siamsaiocht (a full sister to Gr.1 Dewhurst winner Parish Hall) by a comfortable 2½ lengths (RPR 90). The only other O'Brien-trained juvenile fillies to have achieved a comparable winning debut rating in the last seven years have been Maybe (92), Dazzling (92), Kissed (92), Was (91), Words (88), Found (87), Tapestry (87) and Marvellous (86), and it's worth noting that five of those eight fillies (to date) have been successful at Gr.1 level. Alice Springs looks sure to excel over 7f and a mile this season, and she's likely to get further next year (being a full sister to 12f winner Criteria), but her current odds for the Guineas (top price 16-1) are remarkably poor value, considering that Maybe was 33-1 for the Guineas after her maiden win in 2011, and bearing in mind Aidan O'Brien's disappointing record with highly-rated Guineas fancies in recent years (Found, Tapestry, Maybe, Lillie Langtry...) I prefer to be on Illuminate for the Guineas at 20-1 than either Ballydoyle or Alice Springs at 16-1!! Dermot Weld's Tanaza should make her presence felt in top races later this season, following her impressive winning debut at Leopardstown on 11 June. She showed a good turn of foot to beat subsequent winner Minding by a comfortable 2½ lengths, but the winning time was slow (seven seconds slower than standard, on good to firm ground), and enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that the filly's connections (trainer Dermot Weld and owner HH Aga Khan) rarely target the Guineas at Newmarket. André Fabre introduced a smart filly at Deauville this afternoon. Gherdaiya (owned by Al Shaqab Racing), odds-on favourite on debut, showed a good turn of foot to win her maiden easily by 2 lengths (with another 4 lengths back to the third). This full sister to French Navy (unbeaten in his first three races as a juvenile, including the Gr.3 Prix des Chenes, and winner of this year's Gr.3 Earl of Sefton Stakes) should take high rank over 7f and a mile this season. The winning time, however, was quite slow (1.47s slower than the colts' maiden half an hour later). |
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Fantastic stuff James.
Has there been any news on High Celebrity since her injury? |
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Hi sint. No, I've not heard any news regarding High Celebrity. She missed the Prix de Diane a couple of weeks ago and she doesn't hold any future entries. Incidentally, Fabre recently introduced another nice prospect Mrs Ramsey (by Hard Spun out of a half-sister to smart dual-Gr.1 winner Questing) to finish second (beaten half a length) in the same maiden race at Chantilly in which High Celebrity made her winning debut last season. One to watch out for....
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Interesting to note that Tom Segal is very complimentary about Alice Springs in the latest edition of the Weekender. He thinks the filly will turn out to be a Group 1 winner this season (and next). This might be one reason she's such a short price for the Guineas (just 12-1 with Coral when I enquired this week!). I'm inclined to agree with Tom: there's a strong likelihood that this filly will develop into a Group 1 performer. She won the same maiden race in which the highly regarded Words made her debut last season. But 16-1 (top price) for the Guineas is simply way too short.
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quite taken by lumiere today in not a bad time for one that was unraced...will be very interested to see how she progresses, her mother won her only start but looked very good...
nice filly for the future with plenty of speed...although i'm not interested myself ante post in a bet it'll be nice to see how she progresses from now on, looked to have plenty more to come |
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Yes very impressive that Lumiere, time was just ok but the last 2f of 22.17 marks her up into a the mid 90s fto which is very good for a filly and my mark ups are always on the conservative side
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I still think it was only a moderate Albany but we'll see what Illuminate can do again today. Like many people I reckon it was a really good Queen Mary. Probably the race was full of sprinters and some fillies that maybe won't go on next year, so it might not have been much of a Guineas pointer but I think it is far superior form compared to the Albany. I have Easton Angel literally a stone ahead of Illuminate and even Basharah comes out a good few pounds ahead of her. The possible problem for the Queen Mary runners is the extra furlong here and none of us can know for sure if they'll be as effective but I see no obvious signs why the shouldn't be. Another concern is how they come out of that last race. It required a big effort particularly from Easton Angel and you never know if a run like that will set them back. Nevertheless with so much in hand of the second favourite on the book Easton Angel has to be backed.
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I have Easton Angel 114 and Illuminate 106.
Easton Angel's rating is easily good enough to win most runnings of this race today and Illuminate for me is up to normal standard for winner of this race. So I'm backing EA today. As for the guineas, I'm not sure either of them will stay the mile and EA is probably a pure speedster. |
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EA a bit keen early on and then didn't find much, probably didn't stay. back to 5f I think. also possible big effort as Ascot affected performance?
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Difficult to say, Stevie, considering the poor ride she was given. Illuminate was just about good enough but again it looks a moderate level to me.
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Keeping an eye on draw today figgis, seems to quicker centre to far side imo. The watering seemed to change the GS stick readings and stands side slower.
Think this watering messes up the racing sometimes. first race that strip seem favoured and then 7,8,9 finish there but maybe too early to say for sure. |
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Illuminate was a little bit disappointing in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes, despite maintaining her unbeaten record. If she's going to develop into a Guineas filly she ought to have put distance between herself and the placed fillies, but in the end she only just about held on. This did not represent a step forward from her Albany-winning performance. They went no pace early on and they were racing into a slight headwind, resulting in a moderate winning time, so I'm hoping that she will be able to produce a better performance next time off a truer pace. The trainer mentioned the Gr.1 Prix Morny and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes as possible future targets this season, but personally I'd prefer to see her step up to 7f in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. Although the bare form of the Newmarket race doesn't look anywhere near Guineas-winning standard, it's interesting to note that the third (Blue Bayou) is very highly regarded by trainer Brian Meehan, so perhaps the form isn't all that bad.
Lumiere was very impressive the previous day in a 6f fillies maiden, scoring by 6 lengths in a winning time that was 0.80s faster than the earlier division of the maiden (won by Salvo) though more than a second slower than the Gr.2 July Stakes on the same card. I suspect that the bare form doesn't amount to much (although the fifth Mysterious Glance had run well behind Blue Bayou previously), but the style of victory was very eye-catching. She clearly has loads of pace and a good turn of foot, but on breeding she should have no difficulty getting a mile next year, so she's an exciting prospect. Trainer Mark Johnston reported afterwards: "She's done nothing wrong at home, but she's not worked with anything of note. What she has done was kick everything out of the way. We were hopeful she'd be that good and William Buick was very enthusiastic about that. We'll go home and have a think where we go next. Looking at her pedigree there is no reason why she shouldn't get a mile. The hype partly comes from a piece of work she did under Russ Kennemore last week, where Russ came back in saying she was the fastest thing he had ever sat on. I haven't thought about anything further than today but she is bred to go further and she is learning to settle now so a race like the Guineas would have to be a possibility." It was undoubtedly the most impressive maiden win by a juvenile filly in Britain so far this season, and on the strength of the trainer's comments I've taken some 20-1 for the Guineas (to add to the existing bet on Illuminate at the same odds). The well-hyped Ballydoyle won her maiden at Newmarket on Saturday, getting off the mark at the third attempt, but she wasn't especially impressive and won just as an odds-on favourite is entitled to do (following her excellent run in the Chesham). The runner-up was previously beaten 6 lengths in another Newmarket maiden (though would have finished closer with a clear run), and it's hard to get too excited about the form, but she remains a promising filly. Queen Of Sicily, who made a winning debut at Naas on 8 July, looks a nice type of filly and should be making her mark in stakes company for Jim Bolger and Godolphin in the near future. But as a daughter of the very fast Gr.2 Queen Mary winner Jealous Again she's not certain to get much further than 6f. The entries for the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on 26 July feature 13 colts (notably King Of Rooks, Areen and Money Maker) and seven fillies, including Besharah (runner-up to Illuminate last week), Venecia Style (unbeaten winner of the Listed Prix la Fleche), Fly On The Night (winner of the Gr.3 Prix du Bois) and Yakaba (very green but quite impressive maiden winner for Freddie Head). |
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Great update again James. This forum is invaluable for ante post betting and having watched lumiere after positive comments above have had a small wager at 16s as she could be a very special filly and will be interesting to see how she progresses later this year. Interesting to see where they go next
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So far, its LUMIERE for me too, and I have had some of the 20's and the 16s on offer.
Trainer doesn't have many FTO winners, and certainly very few FTO winners at Newmarket. Connections are mopping up the purchase of the mother and sibling, workrider thinks she's like nothing he has ridden, and both jockey and trainer were enthusiastic after her 6L debut canter victory. Watching the video back she did everything right, FTO, settled, speed to be on the pace, push down the neck she motored clear, no pulling, no wandering about, just ruthless efficiency. The Maiden race has thrown up Group race winners in the past (IE: Gossamer, Fantasia). I would take LUMIERE over any other juvenile filly over 6F/7F right now, and would expect her to post the 10lb+ improvement to go 100+ on RPR ratings, if put into a group race next time out. She is entered over 7F in Group 2 Debutante Stakes, in Ireland, and MJ tends to send his better juveniles over there from time to time, so it could be on the cards for her next run, on 22nd August. If all goes well, that would leave the Fillies Mile over the 1000 Guineas course and distance to finish the season. Then hopefully they will leave her with MJ over the winter, and let him prep her for the Guineas. |
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The only two negatives I see with Lumiere is I believe her dam only had the one run (an impressive win from what I can gather) and we never saw her again (I don't know why - injury possibly) and we have to hope history doesn't repeat itself with her daughter although that is quite unlikely. The bigger problem is where the hell is she going to be after her 2 year old career. Like deepingfox suggests hopefully they leave her where she currently is.
Jamesp - regarding Illuminate I was also disappointed by the manner of her win but have just read this from Hannon Junior "We have just discovered that Illuminate was in season when she won the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket last week. That's probably why she was a bit lacklustre! She'll head for the Prix Morny or the Cheveley Park. I still think that she is up there with our best fillies like Sky Lantern and Tiggy Wiggy. She's certainly a great looker and is a dreamboat on the gallops" |
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Lumiere's dam Screen Star was quite highly regarded (she held a Fillies' Mile entry as a juvenile) and won her only start impressively for Mark Johnston (beating several previous winners by upwards of 11 lengths, earning a Timeform rating of 110p). Unfortunately she had an injury after that race and couldn't go for the May Hill Stakes (her intended prep for the Fillies' Mile). She was later transferred to Godolphin, and at their annual open morning at Al Quoz in March 2008 Simon Crisford said he hoped that the filly would run in a mile Listed race at York towards the end of May and then represent the stable at Royal Ascot. However, she never raced again and it seems that she never completely recovered from the injury she sustained as a juvenile.
The current Godolphin strategy seems to be to leave horses with their existing trainers, so I expect and hope that Lumiere will remain in training with Mark Johnston next year (even if she does run in the Godolphin colours, which is far from certain to be the case...). It will be interesting to see where she goes next. She showed so much speed on her debut at Newmarket that I imagine they will keep her to 6-7f this year. If they choose to step her up to 7f, the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes next month would be the obvious race to go for (the stable won it with Muraaqaba last year). If they want to stick to 6f for the time being, the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes next Saturday is an option (although it comes only 16 days after her debut). Good news about Illuminate (thanks for the update, Lance!). I was expecting better things from her, so the news that she was in season gives me hope that she's capable of an improved effort next time. Not sure that the Prix Morny is the ideal race for her though...! |
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Lumiere features among 21 entries for the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. Mark Johnston has three other entries, including Rah Rah and the promising maiden winner Plagiarism. Richard Hannon has four entries, including the useful Great Page, Ejaazah and Bournemouth Belle. There are a number of other promising maiden winners among the entries, but they will all have to step up considerably if they are to trouble Blue Bayou (close third in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes) and Ashadihan (runner-up in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes).
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I should have added Besharah (runner-up in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes) alongside Blue Bayou and Ashadihan in teh earlier post....
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Just a word of caution - Jim Bolger has some lovely fillies yet to unleash !
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Re ^^
Ceol na nOg, by Teofilo out of a half-sister to Soldier of Fortune, Heliostatic - entered at Leopardstown on Thurs, is one. |
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I'll look out for that Bolger filly, thanks. After Leafy Shade's debut win at the Curragh yesterday, Bolger hinted that there wasn't a lot to choose between several of his better juvenile fillies: "I have a few others to sort out, so we will see how they get on at Leopardstown on Thursday and also the filly from Tipperary [Mrs King] but she is in there with all those". Bolger has several possible runners on Thursday: Siamsaiocht (runner-up to the highly rated Alice Springs on debut) and Ceol Na Nog in the maiden, plus Glamorous Approach and Turret Rocks in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes. Ceol Na Nog is the only one of those that's not entered in either the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes or the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, but there are plenty of other options for her later on (if she's good enough).
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good little summary, James - I enjoyed this thread last year
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I couldn't touch antepost on one of Bolger's until its clearer who the best one is. Mcuh prefer to back a stables leading light knowing its more likely to turn up, and who the jockey will be.
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Royal Ascot two year old winners since 1971 have accumalated a total of THREE English Classic wins.Thats over 172 classics races run.
Not exactly the first place to look for next years classic winners?!!!!!!!!!!!!!. |
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Obviously it's the colts, but Sanus Per Aquam will be hugely interesting tomorrow evening
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Fair point, pipedreamer, but with the Coventry Stakes having produced two winners of the 2000 Guineas in the last few years (Henrythenavigator in 2007/08 and Dawn Approach in 2012/13), plus the Irish 2000 Guineas and multiple Gr.1 winner Canford Cliffs in 2009/10, I think it's only a matter of time before the Albany Stakes throws up a 1000 Guineas winner. In the last few years it has produced Cuis Ghaire (runner-up in the 1000 Guineas), Samitar (winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas) and Cursory Glance (winner of the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, yet to race this season).
This afternoon's Listed Star Stakes at Sandown hardly ever produces a top-class filly. The last winner of this race to progress to Gr.1 level was Confidential Lady (the 2005 winner), who went on to finish second in the 1000 Guineas and later won the Gr.1 Prix de Diane. I'm looking for a big run from the likely favourite Fireglow, who finished nearly 5 lengths behind Illuminate at Ascot last time. The Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown this evening is potentially of much greater interest. Alice Springs was a rare first-time-out winner for Aidan O'Brien and is already as short as 16-1 for the Guineas (too short a price to back at this stage). I'm hoping that Tanaza (or possibly Turret Rocks) will burst that particular bubble... There are just seven runners for the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. Mark Johnston decided not to declare Lumiere and instead relies on Rah Rah (who ran well behind Illuminate last time). Chiringuita, who is due to run at Sandown this afternoon, has also been declared to run at Ascot. Salvo is highly regarded by Charlie Fellowes and should have come on considerably for her debut win. Likely favourite is Besharah, just touched off by Illuminate in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes last time, who tackles this in preference to the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin. Three fillies remain in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin at Maisons-Laffitte on Sunday. Final declarations are tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see whether Freddie Head lets his once-raced maiden winner Yakaba take her chance. |
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Fireglow gave a welcome boost to the Albany Stakes form this afternoon, readily seeing off some promising maiden winners at Sandown in the Listed Star Stakes. Much has been made of the fact that Fireglow came from a long way back at Ascot and was finishing very strongly at the end of the Albany, but in actual fact the winner Illuminate came from a similarly unpromising position and simply had far more speed and better acceleration. The extra furlong clearly suited the Mark Johnston-trained filly today and she should make her presence felt in Group company, but I'll be surprised if she's able to reverse Albany form with Illuminate over any distance up to a mile.
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Lumiere could be supplemented for the Pinsent Masons Lowther Stakes at York next month after connections decided to skip the Princess Margaret Stakes. The Mark Johnston-trained juvenile was one of the most impressive maiden winners of the season at Newmarket's July meeting. Ridden by William Buick, the daughter of Shamardal skipped six lengths clear and was immediately promoted to the head of the market for next year's 1000 Guineas. She was expected to cement those claims at Ascot on Saturday but is not among the declarations for the Group Three. "It's not because of the rain that is due, we've just decided not to run her," said Johnston. "There's a possibility we could supplement her for the Lowther. I just need to check what other options there are for her but that would be the next logical one."
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The fact that Mark Johnston is even thinking about supplementing Lumiere for a Group 2 race on the back of her maiden win shows the high regard in which the filly is held. This would be the obvious stepping-stone to the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes at the end of the season, but they have also entered her for the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes in case they decide to step her up in trip. They won't be running her over a mile this year.
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Took 16-1 for Lumiere before Tanakz wun last nite at Lepardstown
Thought the winner who is been aimed at the 1000 gns would need easier ground despite winning on fast ground |
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I'm very interested in Tanaza, but in the post-race interview on ATR I thought Dermot Weld said that the filly would have one more run (in the Moyglare) and then he would train her "for a 1000 Guineas". At least, that's what it sounded like. But I see that this has been interpreted by some reporters as meaning "the 1000 Guineas" (i.e. the Newmarket Guineas). Dermot Weld and the Aga Khan hardly ever run anything in the Newmarket Guineas (the same owner's Ervedya and Raydara both missed the race this year), so it wouldn't surprise me if they took the French Guineas route, or waited for the Irish Guineas.
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Tanaza put up a smart performance to win the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes last night, comfortably beating the highly regarded favourite Alice Springs (who was already as short as 16-1 for the Guineas beforehand). The time was nothing special (0.73s slower than Deauville's winning time in the Gr.3 Tyros Stakes on the same card), but the winner showed plenty of speed and a very good turn of foot to settle the race, and she looks as though she will make her mark in Group 1 company before long. Pat Smullen was impressed with the winner and reported that he was always confident of victory. Although there is plenty of stamina in Tanaza's pedigree, she doesn't look like a stayer, and both jockey and trainer think that a mile will be her trip. Dermot Weld had thought that a bit more ease in the ground would suit her, but Smullen said that she acted beautifully on the fastish ground last night. Tanaza will reportedly have one more run this season (in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes) and then be prepared for one of the Guineas races. She looks sure to be given a rating of about 105-107 (in line with other recent winners of the race), which (after just two starts) marks her out as a very smart prospect. I've taken a bit of 16-1 for the Guineas, but would have doubled my stake if I'd been reasonably sure that the filly will be aimed at the Newmarket Guineas next season. Best price now seems to be 14-1, which is plenty short enough at this stage...
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