Coronation Cup - Epsom

Initial decs tomorrow gents, any thoughts?

Looks a gallic match as Tapestry must be doubtful? Dolniya appears the handier animal and might be better suited to a small field scenario than Flintshire. I can see the Dubai race unfolding all over again. As long as both turn up at least we'll have a race.

Last I heard Tapestry is being aimed at the race.

IF Dolniya handles the track she looks a penalty kick.

I had no bet in the race as it was too trappy for me but even though it's never been the strongest Gp1 in the calendar this was an extremely disappointing turnout. As Nevo said on tv they must surely be able to market the race better. If Coolmore hadn't targeted the race as easy pickings in recent years it would've surely already lost its Gp1 status.

I backed Flintshire in the end as he drifted to 9/4 after the non-runners, but he was pretty disappointing though i'm not surprised as he always been overrated. I just thought he may get the better of the filly around the course.

I disagree with the prevailing view about this race. You had two genuine group 1 horses and a pair of solid group 2 horse. It was a small field so trouble in running was very unlikely. The purist could have a good think about tactics and the day out punter had a much better percentage chance of backing a winner in this race than in at least 5 others on the card. I have no problem with small fields as long as there are at least two conceivable winners. It will go down as a well up to scratch renewal in terms of ratings.

Howellsy, do you think they both are genuine Gp1 horses though? Flintshire regularly runs in Gp1s but he rarely looks like winning one and last year's Arc form doesn't read that well apart from the winner. Dolniya has just beaten Flintshire on her last two starts and the seemingly impressive Dubai form was a bit suspect due to the slow time. Sure, this is after the event and things could've turned out differently today with one of them winning but they were hardly a pair to scare off the opposition and the fact that Pether's Moon could win says it all about the quality in Gp1 terms.

I suppose they have to be deemed group 1 horses Figgis - in that they are both regularly close up in group 1s. Flintshire clearly isn't a top group 1 horse but until today Dolniya was looking like progressing into one - hard to know what happened close home. But Flintshire, you'd always be looking to oppose him. I made it a group 1.5 race at best after doing my figures (not speed figs) today.

All I know is Telescope woud have smashed them. Silly they did not run him.

so pethers puts behind him the bad windy day for prominent types at hq.

i knew the result that day was vastly exagerated but didnt expect him to win this lol

still can't work out how dolniya didn't win. Everything went perfect. Pethers moon can't of overnight become a solid group 1 runner let alone winner. BAFFLING

The race needs to be re-thought. It's lost its way imo.

What does "The race needs to be re-thought" mean, exactly?

An average of less than 6 runners over the past 5 years can't be satisfactory from anyone's point of view, I would have thought.Begs the question whether a 12f G1 for older horses is warranted at this time. Royal Ascot less than 2 weeks away not ideal. Would guess that they would  like Hardwicke Stakes go up to G1 and possible owners/trainers may agree? Got to be a chance that CC may lose its G1 status anyway.

Don't think so Sandown, the Group 1 parameter (end of season average rating of first four home) is 115. Last season the 3yr average for the Coronation Cup was 116.67.  The race will be judged at the end of this year on the 2013 (115.50) 2014 (119) and 2015 (???) renewals.  ORs going into the race seemed to be 121, 121, 115 and 113 if the RP is correct which would give an annual race rating of 117.5 and a 3yr average of 117.33 (against the G1 parameter of 115) so the ratings of the four involved this year will have to collapse for the Coronation Cup to be in trouble I'd have thought.

Epsom has done a good job of attracting the French over again, which isn't such an easy task with the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud on the horizon.  The problem on Saturday was that Ballydoyle has, literally, no older colts to speak of and the domestic elder horse population at that level is threadbare too.

Interestingly (or not maybe!) the Hardwicke, which frequently feels like a 'super' Group 2, doesn't match the Coronation Cup's 3yr rating, being 115.75.   

Fascinating, isn't it?!

The problem on Saturday was that Ballydoyle has, literally, no older colts to speak of and the domestic elder horse population at that level is threadbare too.

That's my point Headmaster.Last 5 years averaging under 6 runners? The ratings argument may save it's G1 status (although say if 3 horses averaging 117/118 doesn't do it for me, so ratings alone not the answer are they?)

I used the Hardwicke as an illustration of a race which is more attactive seemingly. Runners last few years 10, 8,12,9,11 with a fraction of the CC prizemoney and some very good winners eg Harbinger,Sea Moon,Telescope. I know which race I would pay to see of the two.