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stevo1
11 May 15 19:01
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Date Joined: 21 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 3,494 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
Havent seen thread for this yet, so any fancies like The Derby appears wide open at present.
Have backed Gosden filly, hopefully backs up this week at York.
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Report IrisDeBalme May 11, 2015 11:13 PM BST
BELLAJEU 40/1 each way

Trainer has great record in this race... was gambled on last time out... think he will improve ..
Report stevo1 May 12, 2015 9:08 AM BST
Good luck Iris nice price,think looks between Coolmore and Gosden.
Report unclepuncle May 12, 2015 9:42 AM BST
I backed Together Forever at 16/1 yesterday in the hope she puts up a decent performance in the Musidora tomorrow. She seemed a big price considering she had some of the strongest 2 year old staying Fillies form and on breeding should relish the trip. She also looked very well balanced when she won at Newmarket last year so looks the right type for Epsom. I'll know my fate tomorrow.
Report unclepuncle May 12, 2015 9:45 AM BST
Just seen that she has drifted out to well over 20/1 with only  abit of 50 and 1000 on the lay side - take it she won't be running now.Cry
Report stevo1 May 12, 2015 4:26 PM BST
if she wins tomorrow Uncle cant see why she wouldn't go,suppose Coolmore have a few for race though.
Report unclepuncle May 12, 2015 7:26 PM BST
I've managed to lay my stake off at the same price so now have no position on the race. The market isn't speaking for her and as we saw in both Guineas the Coolmore money genreally gets it right.
Report giggitygiggity May 12, 2015 7:43 PM BST
I agree uncle, I've got a few ante post bets on her. Think the drift is because of the anticipation that she might get beat tomorrow..she has the group 1 penalty and a number of ballydoyles have got stuffed on their first run of the season. As long as she gets within a few lengths of the winner if she gets beat, I'll expect her to run in the Oaks. That'll probably be the best situation as she will remain a nice price.
Report sintonian May 12, 2015 9:36 PM BST
Found looks a silly price at the moment, think she should be in double figures.

Price wise has done Diamondandrubies & Jazzi today.
Report elise May 13, 2015 12:44 PM BST
little nightingale just took the gp3 prix cleopatre, decent prep race and has an entry
Report Figgis May 13, 2015 1:41 PM BST
For me, Star Of Seville is going to be very hard to beat today, her last run was of quite a high standard, good enough to take an average renewal of this race and I'm not even sure if this opposition is even up to average standard. Together Forever looks to be her main opponent but in my view the Listed and Group races she won last year were of a pretty moderate level. She's going to need to improve, and while Legatissimo showed that 3yos can improve significantly on their 2yo form I couldn't entertain her at the price. The rest need to improve even more so 10/11 and even 4/5 is decent for the fav and a bet for me. If SOS does win then her Oaks odds are guaranteed to contract but I think she'll need to improve again today to take an average Oaks, I'm interested to see if she can. I reckon if she runs to form and one of the others manages to beat her convincingly they'd have an outstanding chance in the Oaks.
Report roadrunner46 May 13, 2015 4:04 PM BST
hows the picture looking now after that result, are you any the wiserWink
Report unclepuncle May 14, 2015 6:39 AM BST
Well I guess I should have left my bet on Together Forever - I couod at least have laid off at a shorter price now and had a nice free bet.Cry

I thought she had the most compelling credentials but the market was suggesting she was likely to miss the race - even after the race the Coolmore comments suggest she still isn't 100% certain to run (French Oaks maybe?).

After yesterdays race it's still wide open though I feel the front two from the Musidora will both be hard to keep out of the frame if they run.
Report geee May 14, 2015 8:45 AM BST
Does anyone know when Goodyearforroses is going to run? She trounced Star of Seville and Redstart on her debut and is entered in the Oaks. She looked really good that day coming from last place to win under Hanagan. Her Dam Guilia was 5th at Epsom.
Report woodmanchester May 14, 2015 2:51 PM BST
I know she's a different s*x, but Diamondsandrubies reminded me of St Nicholas Abbey bounding down the home straight at Chester and backed her at 14/1 for the Oaks, each-way

Good luck!
Report houseofpain May 14, 2015 3:07 PM BST
Anyone heard where Fluff might be heading the oaks looks unlikely i guess looking at the prices, i've had a play @ 55 but not over optimistic.
Report sintonian May 16, 2015 6:57 PM BST
I see Crystla Zvezda is an 8/1 chance after winning impressively today. Anyone views on that? Never see the race..
Report essexguy May 16, 2015 7:52 PM BST
Will take a real good one to beat her.i wonder who will ride her.
Report Sacred Kingdom May 16, 2015 9:36 PM BST
Blinding kick of foot. Not sure what she beat mind, a bunch of 70-80 rated horses thrown in. Diamondsandrubies' form didn't work out, Entertainment finished stone cold last.

Not convinced by Star of Seville or Jazzi Top, and Found is rated miles better than Diamondsandrubies and Together Forever. Legatissimo won't stay?

Mate of mine likes Agnes Stewart a lot. Not a bad shout at 200+. I think Found will do the Irish 1000-Oaks double personally (Lucida even swerving the Irish 1000 to make it easier for her...) but I've got nice prices about Crystal Zvezda and Agnes Stewart too.
Report Figgis May 16, 2015 9:58 PM BST
Entertainment finished 4th but was disqualified and placed last due to Doyle failing to draw the correct weight.
Report Sacred Kingdom May 16, 2015 10:05 PM BST
Looks a very balanced horse. Moore pulled her out, straightened up and quickened immediately, kept in a straight line too. Looks a really, really classy horse. Questions about the trip maybe? Out of a miler, by a miler. Sire has sired Al Kazeem but he's out of a Darshaan mare. Damsire at least has sired Sir Percy - but his dam was Blakeney, and I can't see her race record but I'll never forget Willie Carson banging on and on about how Blakeney stayed - and High Accolade, but he was out of a Generous mare :D

Wasn't stopping at the end but you have to ask the question.  Anyway *aftertiming* got in at 42 and out at 9 :))) So am very happy but I think this Found must be something special. Her far inferior stablemates doing well in Oaks trials. Think she has a good shout of doing the Irish 1000-Oaks double. AOB's tried it so many times and only managed it with Imagine. Yesterday very unlucky though. And if the races had come maybe a fortnight later Peeping Fawn might've done it.
Report Sacred Kingdom May 16, 2015 10:05 PM BST
Oh legend, cheers, wouldn't have seen that otherwise.
Report sintonian May 17, 2015 8:04 PM BST
Isn't she related to Crystal Cappella, hence her name, who stayed 14f?

Wonder if JB may run Pleascach..
Report Sacred Kingdom May 18, 2015 8:21 PM BST
She looks very slow to me, Sint.
Report sintonian May 18, 2015 8:45 PM BST
13/2 now for Crystal!
Report Faux-Heen May 19, 2015 9:35 AM BST
Crystal Zvezda time pretty slow for the grade on Saturday. She needs massive improvement to catch Legatissimo, Together Forever and Star Of Seville on timefigures imo. Though will concede fillies can improve fast.....

Surely Found must be a big stamina doubt judged on her dam? Jessie Harrington seemed to be pretty bullish about Jack Naylor (25/1) if she can get her right in time
Report stevo1 May 19, 2015 9:48 AM BST
Jessica Harringtons other runner not without chance either, if this is her target?
Report Notsofastmyfriend May 22, 2015 3:49 PM BST
Is it confirmed that Moore is retained by Ballydolyle, I think 14's that he rides The Crystal is a fair price.
Report sintonian May 22, 2015 8:00 PM BST
14's he rides Crytal Zevzda? Bit late for that. 6/1 top now.
Report Notsofastmyfriend May 23, 2015 2:20 PM BST
Yes Sintonian, there is a book open on what horse Moore rides and he is 14's to ride Crystal Zvezda.
Report sintonian May 23, 2015 5:23 PM BST
Wow, never realised, thought you were referring to the horses chance.
Report sintonian May 24, 2015 7:55 PM BST
Found going  to Epsom.?
Report Faux-Heen May 25, 2015 9:21 AM BST
after the Irish Guineas and recent "trials", would be very surprised if Ryan not ride Legatissimo for Coolmore. Once he does, withdrawal of number of their other fancied entries top of market will see big contraction in price from current 4/1. Think Together Forever definitely run though as Found still got plenty to do to show she can stay 12f.
Report sintonian May 25, 2015 9:31 AM BST
I would not be massively surprised tbh. Crystal Zeveda looked pretty good and she is bound to improve for the run. Looks a race wide open.
Report lobster luck May 25, 2015 9:56 AM BST
Jack Naylor was quite eye catching yesterday imo especially when the step up in trip should suit really well.  Moore will almost certainly have to ride Legatissimo which has a fair chance of getting the trip but wouldn't it be nice to know which one he would like to ride?
Report tim6 May 25, 2015 5:18 PM BST
Anyone think Pamona has a chance his ride against Crystal did not show her true ability as she was
driven up every other horses backside I thought she hinted at a lot more to come
Report sintonian May 25, 2015 5:19 PM BST
Think they have said they will go for the Ribblesdale?
Report tim6 May 25, 2015 5:44 PM BST
Thanks Sint will back her next time wherever she goes
Report Faux-Heen May 25, 2015 10:12 PM BST
7/2 NRNB Legatissimo? Got to go off much shorter than that on the day with Moore riding?
Report go-all-in May 25, 2015 10:17 PM BST
Not sure about that, Found could possibly end up favourite presuming she turns up? Is Moore definitely going to ride Legatissimo over Found?

Wouldn't rule out heavy support for Crystal Zvezda either, it wouldn't exactly be uncommon if the Stoute yard think they've got a good one.
Report Faux-Heen May 26, 2015 12:29 AM BST
doubt very much Coolmore will run both Legatissimo and Found. They should both be winning Group 1 fillies only races this season, so why run them against each other?
Hence why 7/2 NRNB is huge for Legatissimo. If she's declared, almost certain that Coolmore have decided not to run Found (or vice versa). Moore will ride the one left and go off short priced favourite. Just my own opinion, can't have Crystal Zvezda on my mind, beat trees (or handicappers) at Newbury
Report Faux-Heen May 26, 2015 10:57 PM BST
Racing Post - Wachman keen on Legatissimo up in trip

BY PAUL EACOTT 4:50PM 26 MAY 2015

DAVID WACHMAN believes that a stiffer stamina test will suit his 1,000 Guineas heroine Legatissimo when she bids to complete a Classic double in the Investec Oaks at Epsom on June 5.

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The daughter of Danehill Dancer was dropping back in distance to a mile at Newmarket and her trainer reckons the step back up in trip will play to her strengths.

Speaking at the Breakfast with the Stars event at Epsom on Tuesday, Wachman said: "She seems very well and we are happy with her as she has done nothing wrong.

"She has only done two or three bits of work and we are very happy with her.

"A mile is a short as she would ever go as a true-run mile sees her stamina come into it.

"She has definitely got stronger since her win at Newmarket."


Sounds like at least Legatissimo definitely going to Epsom for Coolmore
Report FELTFAIR May 30, 2015 12:57 PM BST
Just 14 left in and 5 are Coolmore.
Report stevo1 June 3, 2015 10:33 AM BST
Hughes jocked up on Crystal,so Moore on fav? Had saver on Together Forever, as Star of Seville drifting badly in the last week.
Report FELTFAIR June 3, 2015 5:01 PM BST
Clock says Legatissimo and Jack Naylor. Will back both to win and double stake to place.

Will be annoyed if the Fabre horse makes the frame but c`est la vie.
Report Millerracing67 June 3, 2015 5:51 PM BST
Tricky stall (1) for the fav Plain
Was hoping for a middle berth for her.
Need all of Moore's skill from that coffin box.
Report Ramruma June 3, 2015 8:58 PM BST
Drawn 1 is not ideal but I'm not sure how important it is now that jockeys know it matters -- in other words, I think Ryan Moore will not mindlessly ride to the draw.

In any case, as recently as 2013, the three lowest draws came 1st, 2nd and 4th.
Report Faux-Heen June 3, 2015 9:21 PM BST
draw won't make any difference to Legatissimo. Virtually certain to be held up and dropped out whatever her draw, hence irrelevant imo, especially with so few runners.
Report sintonian June 3, 2015 9:41 PM BST
There is not much significance to the draw when it's 11 runners. Its when it is 14 or more really,
Report luckyme June 3, 2015 10:45 PM BST
lads anyone know what time wedding vow was with drawn at this morning, thanks
Report ReaseHeath June 4, 2015 12:01 AM BST
Is n't the drift on Star of Seville only because Frankie has chosen Jazzi Top?

He's in the best position to make the right choice and it's not unknown for Gosden to give the jockey a steer in the right direction when he's got two live contenders in a big race (Buick on Eagle Top at Ascot last year springs to mind though Western Hymn ultimately did n't run anyway).

Anyway, although Frankie's choice worries me, I was impressed with SoS at York and thought Together Forever was flattered by her ultimate proximity - appreciate the latter was also conceding 4lbs) - Gosden seemed quite sweet on her post race too and pointed out in his usual understated way that he did n't think his fillies who were second and third in Cheshire Oaks were in SoS class.

Duke of Marmalade progeny have a decent strike rate at 12f and beyond - although I notice he has n't produced a Group 1 winner yet.

SoS also likely to go a little under the radar as the link between Jazzi Top and Taghrooda will be made given they both won the Pretty Polly prior to contesting the Oaks.

So, lots of pros and cons there, but Star of Seville made the biggest impression on me during the trials and I'll look to back her on Friday morning.

Crystal Zvezda was visually impressive at Newbury and could be anything but I thought that was a messy race and both Pamona and Paul Cole's filly might have finished closer with clearer runs, CZ's a bit short for me now.
Report stevo1 June 4, 2015 12:11 AM BST
Only you and me then Rease,my worry is trip but very winnable race very open,and she is overpriced now.
Report Ramruma June 4, 2015 4:10 AM BST
Met Office warning of scattered thunderstorms on Friday.
Report Millerracing67 June 4, 2015 11:20 PM BST
Yes, chance of a few heavy bursts in the morning in the area, but not certain to hit Epsom.
Lets see what 2moro morn brings??
Report Millerracing67 June 5, 2015 11:43 AM BST
Did not want to see that rain this morn for Legatissimo Sad
She is better on gd/fast ground.
Will hold fire on my Oaks bet till after the first couple of races are done, give us a better indication on how slow the ground is or not?  Pain in the arse this bloody weather Plain
Report Sandown June 5, 2015 1:08 PM BST
Hopefully the threat of a downpour has passed (looking at BBC weather).The g/s patch is on Tattenham Hill looking at Turftrax which I think gets more watering to slow the field down a bit.This race has a much better look than the Derby to it. To my mind, Legatissimo represents a great bet. A horse bred to get 12f but with the speed to win a 1000 Gns is perfect. It is well clear on ratings,and class, the time for the Gns was very good and everything else has to improve past this one to win. Ryan Moore riding offsets any minor concerns about the draw. Imo this is an evens chance offered at 3/1.  Time to get stuck in. CZ is my saver.Hopefully Legatissimo will recover lost AP bets on the Derby and provide a decent profit.
Report G1_Jockey_4 June 5, 2015 1:29 PM BST
im on jack naylor

just hope jack hobbs doesnt do the double....
Report Figgis June 5, 2015 2:22 PM BST
For me, this year's 1000 Guineas was a bit below average. I backed Lucida each way knowing she didn't set a great level and was vulnerable but should've been involved in the finish at a decent price. In my view she didn't improve a tap and despite the winner and second pulling clear the time was a bit below par, many fillies ran below their best a bit like the Nell Gwyn that Hot Snap won the other year. That said, as an Oaks trial Legatissimo ran to a standard that would put her thereabouts, if not an outright winner, in an average year. She did well to improve on her 2yo form but imo is not in the same class as most fillies who achieved the Guineas/Oaks double. The big concern for me is that to my eyes she appeared to have a very hard race and despite her having nearly 5 weeks to recover I wouldn't be surprised if she struggled to repeat that effort, so she's not for me at the price.

Crystal Zvezda won in such a manner that she may be better than the bare form, however the bare form leaves her with something to find and in view of her price I'm taking her at the bare form. Jack Naylor was an eyecatcher in the Irish 1000 but it wasn't a great race and she needs to improve on the form she's shown in seven races so far.

The Guineas aside, the best Oaks trial I've seen was not a recognised trial, it was the conditions stakes at Newbury won by Star of Seville. I took the short odds on her in the Musidora expecting her to enhance her claims but as things panned out, in spite of her winning, the opposite happened. The general view is that perhaps she was running out of stamina and in receipt of 4lbs from the O'Brien filly the form would be turned around at level weights but that's not how I saw it. The important factor is this was a slowly run race. For me, Star of Seville was always in control, quickened away from the field when asked by Dettori, Together Forever couldn't go with her but stayed on when SOS began to slow.

I'm normally a weights and measures man but in slowly run races the same rules don't apply. There are many of examples of this but the one that stands out for me was when Lochsong narrowly beat Paris House in receipt of weight in a slowly run race before the Nunthorpe then went off at a very generous 10/1 as it was generally expected that the form would be reversed. There is far less form to evaluate SOS compared to Lochsong and my opinion hinges on my high rating of her at Newbury, which could turn out to be wrong, but at such a big price I'm willing to go with it and I've had a decent bet on her today. Gosden has said he's unsure of her stamina but she trounced the field in that backend maiden over a mile in softish ground last year and I don't think stamina will be a problem.
Report harry callaghan June 5, 2015 3:08 PM BST
tricky oaks - i see the only pace in the race being star of seville so she should get it easy on the lead here...i like her but did think she had a tough race in the end in the musidora even though the jockey tried not to bottom her, the same applied to together forever whom never looked like getting there but in the end moore got a sniff of winning and ended up getting stuck into the filly when it looked like she was just out for the education, she was conceding the winner 4lbs but i just have my doubts about the race, although we are getting a very good price to find out, neither would surprise me if they went well

because of the pace in the race this is going to make it tricky for the hold up horses especially legattismo who is drawn 1 and may not get cover early, she had a tough race in the guineas and as much as i agree with sandown about the price i thought the second was a tad unlucky after being pushed wide all the way, she also flashed her tail into the dip, i'm just not sure about her, although she is clearly the best horse here on ratings, she has also chucked in a couple of off putting runs in her career thus far, solid favorite though

crystal zvezda is very likeable more because of how keen she was early at newbury than anything else, so to still come home strong is testament to the class she has, i just wonder how lit up she will be here, i like her but i don't like the price

i really don't get the jack naylor angle and am surprised she is so short, not overly big she looked very one paced to me in the irish guineas, i just wonder how much she will improve because she certainly needs to win this, i could see her plugging on for 4th, she isn't overly big and i just wonder if she can improve

anyway the one i am most keen on is the luca cumani trained lady of dubai who i can see just popping from the gate and getting a perfect trip, she isn't a keen sort and just looks a very uncomplicated filly to me, she just keeps improving for racing, you could argue about the race she won at goodwood they didn't go quick early and jelicle ball was a tad unlucky but think she would of beaten her anyway...personally i thought she was mugged on the near side by a decent filly of martyn meades at newmarket last year and just didn't have time to respond...she has a bit to find to win this but is going the right way and i think she can step up, so in a tricky affair i think she is worth a wager
Report Millerracing67 June 5, 2015 3:33 PM BST
Ground looks to be no worse than gd (times are not bad so far) Legatissimo for me.
Gd luck all Cool
Report Howellsy June 5, 2015 3:37 PM BST
110 Legatissimo
107 Together Forever
105 Jack Naylor
104 Star of Seville
101p Crystal Zvezda
100 Lady of Dubai

These are my ratings. For me, Star of Seville has stamina questions to answer, much that I feel she can improve past Together Forever in theory.
I'm not sure either Legatissimo or Crystal Z will stay, but the former unquestionably sets the standard on form and in my view is already easily good enough to win a good Oaks.
Crystal Zvezda strikes me as the only filly likely to make substantial improvement on her figure, after just three runs; if she stays, she will probably come first or second but that is a big if for me.
Jack Naylor just doesn't get me excited, perhaps on her Boussac form, perhaps because she has raced so often, and perhaps because she ran 12 days ago. However, on pedigree she looks a certain stayer and her races thus far endorse that view. Represents some value but something is telling me she won't feature.
Together Forever didn't impress me at all as a 2yo and I was strongly against her in the Musidora, but she surprised me, running on very strongly, and I am sure she will stay. However, I am not keen on classic horses who have run so often. Nevertheless, I feel she's very tough and represents value.
I can't see beyond these four which is hardly revelatory in view of the market. I've had a small bet on Together Forever. My betting record in Epsom classics is woeful.
Report Figgis June 5, 2015 3:42 PM BST
Howellsy, do you rate the Musidora a better time than the Newbury conditions race?
Report Howellsy June 5, 2015 4:00 PM BST
Figgis, to be honest with you, I struggle with speed figures beyond a mile when there are so few validating races. The Musidora was run in the same time as the hot handicap but if I took that literally both SOS and TF would be world beaters on my scale; as for the Newbury run, no idea. However, I did give her a very big figure at Doncaster, which has only been surpassed by Legatissimo of these. So I'm quite prepared to believe she has recorded a fast time - but my main objection is that she won't stay.
Report Figgis June 5, 2015 4:41 PM BST
Howellsy, well you were right about her stamina, went out like a light. Well done to Qualify backers, not that I remember any on here Laugh
Report harry callaghan June 5, 2015 4:43 PM BST
well got the ew but well done winners if you found it
Report Howellsy June 5, 2015 4:46 PM BST
And in fairness Figgis, Together Forever never looked like getting past her in any meaningful sense.
Report Sandown June 5, 2015 5:15 PM BST
Thank goodness for in-running lay betting as I actually won more than I would otherwise have done. But no gloating because I do not how Legatissimo lost that except perhaps for its antics on the way to post. Guess that they will drop her back to 10f.Looking at the form there is no way I could have the winner and its pure chance that I won. It was a Foinavon type result. As for CZ well she had no chance after 4f pulling like that. funny old game this.
Report Figgis June 5, 2015 5:33 PM BST
Yes, Howellsy, at least I was right about that Laugh. Star Of Seville went as low as around the 13/8 mark in running but as it was a very slowly run race it's difficult to be certain she's as good as I thought over the shorter trip or it was just that she'd had an easy lead. The only thing certain is she definitely doesn't stay further than 10f. Given that Legatissimo got first run on Qualify the fact it was slowly run shouldn't have disadvantaged her much. I definitely wouldn't bet on that form holding up to the pound and can see it being turned around in future races but I doubt there was a very good 12f filly in that field.
Report Figgis June 5, 2015 5:44 PM BST
It's the third slowly run Oaks in the last 5 years, which is disappointing for those of us who like to see a true test over the trip. In the past 10 years we've had this 50/1 winner along with a 33/1 and three others at 20/1, so turn ups are becoming commonplace. Maybe this is just some statistical blip but it does seem to be a less predictable race than it used to be.
Report harry callaghan June 5, 2015 5:58 PM BST
this joseph o'brien has lost it imo becoming more and more unbalanced on a horse...was equally unbalanced on the filly in the irish guineas
Report lingbleed June 5, 2015 6:12 PM BST
i think that's a little unfair harry ,there was a knock on affect and the horse jumped and took an awkward step ,joey did well to stay on if you ask me
Report harry callaghan June 5, 2015 6:20 PM BST
i disagree lingbleed he was unbalanced on the horse if you watch carefully, the first motion is o'brien unbalancing the filly, he got his filly unbalanced in the irish guineas as well and there weren't horses around her, have a watch at that...since his weight problems it hasn't been pretty, i never backed her by the way just an opinion on the jockey who is struggling imo
Report Millerracing67 June 5, 2015 10:29 PM BST
Was counting the money when she took a couple of lengths out of them, only to be reeled in close home. Lega does not see out the 12f, back to 10f with her.
Could not have had the winner on my mind as an Oaks winner Shocked but there we are.
AOB a hard man to beat when it comes to Classics.
Report tim6 June 5, 2015 10:44 PM BST
Now that the FBI are cleaning up FIFA is there any chance they could turn their attention to Racing next
Report lingbleed June 6, 2015 12:14 AM BST
haven watched it a couple of times harry , i tend to agree with you now .He has finished pulled up in a few big races this year . Ill be watch for that now when i see him on a flat track .
Report sintonian June 6, 2015 9:31 AM BST
Another example of AOB not giving a stuff about the Guineas at HQ and training them specifically for Epsom. £££.
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