Jack Hobbs

I think it will be a top class 10f hoss

If this is a top class horse. Just how has this been got away with for as long as it has? He wins a maiden and gets allotted a mark of 85 for his handicap debut. Massive oversight by the handicapper OR a very well planned coup? Ok we see this happen regularly in early season handicaps but none of them are talked of as potential top class derby horses. To be he will need to be rated at least 110, did he run to that? I am not sure, maybe he did but i am more inclined to think that he could be more suited as he grows up to running in races like the hunt cup etc.

Seen this many times before but it's as much Gosden's enthusiasm as anything else, talking of Dante etc, that makes me think he could be very special. At end of the day we all haven't a clue and are just guessing.

Think handicaps be may out,sure to go up stone min imo.

lets not forget it was funny sort of ground ,plenty hated it ,he may of relished it .But it was brilliant to watch ,and let's be honesty this is what the flat season is all about .The true meaning of unexposed .

Dam was a 6/7f winner. half brother Niceofyoutotellme is by Hernando, an even greater stamina influence than Halling.
...He just gets 10f, and was 2nd in the Cambridgeshire.

at 8/1 , JH is a lay.

Am sorry but whats his mum and dad got to do with what he can do on the track? I have always been lost with all the breeding talk!

Much prefer the NH game but i am inclined to bet on flat races during the summer. But i only follow the markets and never look at the form as feel the flat game is far more suspect than NH will ever be in regards to how straight it is.

Complete cert. Wind derby at a canter.

Time wise it was a pretty easy card to get a handle on and Jack Hobbs' time stacks up with the visual impression. On that showing he'd be in the running for a place in an average Derby but in my view he'll need to improve to win one. I know some will say he was value for much more but, for me, such statements are usually exaggerated. JH appeared to be running to his capabilities for most of the race and it was only close to the finish that Dettori eased him down. In such circumstances I often hear a horse was value for another 4 lengths, etc, but the idea that a horse can be running at full speed then lose four lengths+ in a matter of strides from a tug on the reigns is nonsense to me and I'd say the horse was only value for probably another half length. Of course he may improve again but I'll be waiting to see if he does before I consider backing him for the Derby.

jack hobbs winning the derby

46 hope your laying then I'll enjoy the drift and my winnings.

HALLING has only produced 3 group 1 winners in 17 years. will be shocked if JH wins the derby.

Not a chance. Just before the race Lydia asked JG about the dogs barking and he basically said he had only won a maiden at Wolverhampton and was thinking more of the horse coming into his own in the autumn. The ground was overly patchy and lets not forget it was a handicap. I was more interested in the Queen's horse and being ridden by Andrea Atzeni as I thought it was a significant booking because of Elm Park ( not sure he had ridden for Her Majesty before). It was interesting his price for the Derby collapsed/halved prior to the race. Yeah I know about Main Sequence but Camelot's Derby was nothing to write home about.  On breeding coming from the Sharpen Up line doubt he would have the class for a mile and a half Derby and moreover, He is a huge horse be worried about the course even though he won on the sharp track at Wolverhampton, downhill on a camber, think not.

Not a hope in hell. Take the money outside and set fire to it. It'll give you a bigger buzz.

Dante next for him. Handicapper has put him up 24lb.

I think he's already good enough to take an average Dante, he could well be much shorter after that depending on how strong it turns out to be this year.

where do you find that out sintonian

Read it on twitter, lingbleed. Is it incorrect?

I don't know sintonian i had no reaso to ? it  ,i was just wondering for further reference ,as its something i would like to check more often ,prob BHA website

Hi Lingbleed. Racing Post and Sporting Life and trainer’s website news sections are useful. Marco Botti and Hugo Palmer are very honest in particular, through experience. Stan James are a serious length of time ahead of other bookies on declarations for early closing race such as the forthcoming Chester Cup. Betfair are obviously much faster than transmissions described as "live" but suffer from inertia on these counts but our shared forum is fast due to activism. Sintonian’s enqury was not meant to put you on your back-foot. Others are known for being confrontational and ego driven, and renowned for getting egg in their face but we are all here to make fools of ourselves prophesying, and ‘let's be honesty this is what the flat season is all about .’ Best of luck.

Looked good but not for me.

Looks extremely short priced for the dante taking on some group 1 & 2 winners off levels.

Lots of positives,Gosden getting Frankie on side just like Peter Chapple Hyam did with Authorized,Sandown win visually very impressive and the betting suggests a level of confidence surrounding the horse.

Major negative for me is the clock and will stop me backing him until this doubt is dispelled. Maybe tomorrow.

I think the price for Jack Hobbs is quite generous, I was expecting him to be shorter so he's a bet for me. I already have him ahead of the opposition, despite some runners having Group form on paper it is them that need to improve. His time at Sandown was good, less than half a second slower than the well contested Gp3 for older horses. It's difficult to see how he can be crabbed from a time angle unless you believe all the races run at Sandown that day were slow. I think he'll need to improve on that to win an average Derby, but not by much as long as he stays the 12f equally well. As it was only his second ever start and his first run of the season it's entirely possibly he could progress a few pounds. Whether he does or not he already sets a decent standard and in my view it'll take a Derby winning performance to beat him in the Dante.

Totally agree Figgis.

So glad that Jack made his debut at Wolverhampton(The UK s  finest AW track) Thank you Johnny G.

I suggest a few quid worth investing on Sherlock Holmes for the Derby at 33/1 plus, makes debut on the 17th may still in both English and Irish, the Dam was fantastic and ready too go.Yes a guess!

whats the verdict on jack hobbs now, still going to win the derby???

In fairness to the poster who fancied JH to win the Derby, he's just finished second in the strongest recognised trial to the current Derby fav, while running quite green in the process. There have been far worse calls.

Far better performance against the clock than at Sandown but limitations exposed today. Glad to have layed him for the Derby at just over 6/1 given that I can back him at double those odds now should I so choose.

The doubts over Golden Horn`s participation at Epsom further muddies the water so will wait for the dust to settle after the Irish Guineas and the Gallinule coupled with the next forfeit stage before finalising my position.

Well done on the aftertime lay.

Go suck a lemon.

Major negative for me is the clock and will stop me backing him until this doubt is dispelled

So "stop me backing him" actually meant you were laying him? Right ok.

Maybe tomorrow

And the strategy was to lay him at 6s with the possibility of backing him back at much shorter if he won. All adds up now

Go suck a lemon.

Only after a tequila shot. And like some posts on here, best taken with a pinch of salt

you always get the crazy selections on these threads, generally just ignore those. thought the OP hadnt a very strong view on JH, judging by the write up. yes run well today, was the breeding that put me completely off the
horses derby chances. the trainer wasnt over enthusiastic about its credentials either. suppose closer to derby day, the picture will become much clearer and can make a better informed choice on the day of the race.

totally agree figgis normal filth from feltfair...no matter what happens he can't lose


funny

I had no strong opinion on JH one way or tother. He's run well considering his last race was in a handicap.

Like a pimple on the bottom Figgis and poor old Harry are starting to irritate me.

Let me say and as explained in previous posts I target the Derby every year and have been trading in the ante post market for some months and yes Harry all runners are in the green.

However, I did not want Jack Hobbs or Zawraq winning too much because of clock considerations and therefore traded Jack Hobbs before the Dante and I have done the same with Zawraq. As it has turned out I could have layed Zawraq shorter given all the disappointments in the Dante.So be it.

So you can boo and hiss if Zawraq bolts up in the Irish Guineas and goes on to win the Derby but he will still be a small winner.

Watch this space to find out my preferred Derby outcomes once the declaration stage has come and the likely going is known.

Hope this is sufficient notice for you and not too filthy for you Harry,such a sensitive soul.

have been trading in the ante post market for some months and yes Harry all runners are in the green

With no reference to any of these trades until after the event. Great stuff

Cant have Jack Hobbs winning the Derby myself. Looks very babyish to me for such a test. Action would suggest he wont want the ground to quick either. Trainer did not sound to sure about going for the Derby with him (still very green) more likely (ground permitting) to head for Ascot.

Sorry Figgis for not getting back to you sooner but I`ve been at Twickenham all weekend and I apologise again for not informing you in advance of my travel plans.

Perhaps if you have the time you would like to read through my "2015 Derby" post where all will become apparent.

Seen it, thanks, just more trades aftertime.

Sorry?

What I said. Bets only mentioned after being backed at bigger odds then laid at shorter. Never mind, I'm sure you'd have been as forthcoming with your Jack Hobbs lay after the Dante if he'd bolted up

Right Figgis read carefully.

Derby Betting started for me with the G2 Beresford Stakes in September 2014 when I sat and watched with the Derby betting in front of me. Around the furlong marker it seemed clear to me that Ol`Man River was going to win effortlessly. I quickly entered my stake and got matched. Immediately after the race I was able to lay off at a shorter price and the Derby screen turned green.Sorry I didn`t inform you prior to this trading but it was a spur of the moment event.

Next, after Christmas Ladbrokes were consistently offering 8/1 about John F Kennedy  for the Derby and you could lay shorter on Betfair so I helped myself to the price and then layed the horse on Betfair over a few weeks at just over 4/1. The Derby screen turned greener. Sorry I didn`t inform you but the opportunity was there for all to see.

Then I explored all the entries, in particular, the French entries on their clock performances and based on that review I had more than enough green in my book to back a few big priced horses as follows,Consort which I then layed and it probably won`t run,Order of St George which I layed at a worse price than I backed it at but I am pretty certain it will not run,Karaktar, Migwah and Epicuris all from France I backed at big prices on the off chance that one or more might just turn up and I could trade shorter. Probably money wasted but so be it. Didn`t think it important enough to inform you.

Then I read some breaking news that Giovanni Canaletto had scoped badly and would miss his trial, at Chester as I recall, so I immediately layed the horse and backed it back at a bigger price when the news circulated. I would have had more on but the price shortened up again and it now seems it will run in the Gallinule on Sunday. Unless it does something very good against the clock I will let it run. Again this was a spur of the moment thing and I didn`t have time to notify you in advance.

Next, prior to the Dante I again looked at the Derby market and decided based on clock performances I did not want Jack Hobbs or Zawraq winning too much so layed them both prior to the Dante. Again sorry for not informing you prior to these transactions but I did not realise it would aggravate you so much.

Finally on Dante day I had the Derby betting in front of me and when Golden Horn,which incidentally I backed in the Fielden at Newmarket, cruised to the front I  pressed the button and got matched. I did not have a lot on because of the doubts over his participation but when it was confirmed he would go the the Derby I traded some of my investment. Once again it was a spur of the moment event and never had time to inform you in advance.

I will do no more now until final declarations are made and the state of the ground is reasonably well established at which point I will post any final adjustments/trades on my "2015 Derby" thread as I do for all the "big race threads", the 2000 and 1000 Guineas being the most recent.

I trust this acceptable to you and does not aggravate you anymore than you seem to be now.

Well done, but should've been posted on the aftertiming thread.

Three "spur of the moment" decisions.  Well done.

Jack Hobbs is going to clear my car loan on sat.

Get in there hobby

Fancied him until I saw this ^

tree...how you got a car loan with all your cash ????
didnt play too much on tescos by any chance?

Jun 3, 2015 -- 5:06AM, Money Tree cost me thousands!! wrote:

Jack Hobbs is going to clear my car loan on sat. Get in there hobby

just laid all my bet back and more ....

thats taht one sorted .

my screen has also  turned green ,thank you ,just gunna  be ignoring the red

Tree you've just jinxed my 66/1 antepost. I will hold you personally responsible if Jack Hobbs does not win.

He will win easily.
I've got 66 and 33

it'll take a Derby winning performance to beat him in the Dante

Pity I didn't heed my own words. Hope those who got the big prices had him e.w.

4/6 for the Irish Derby. The opposition looks pathetic.

Certainly looks the one they all have to beat on form. Think Giovanni can get closer to him this time around, gd run in 4th at Epsom after a bit of a rushed prep, think there is more to come from him, poss on ground less quick, like his brother ROTW, who was better with some ease in the ground. Looks like a two horse race atm to me. Jack defo the 0ne they all have to beat.

Curvy boosted bis Gallinule run form I suppose.

Yes, on a black&white form view she has, & she is another gd 3yo filly in the mix of a hole host of them this season, looks a very tough 3yo filly, tho i think the fav was poss a touch below her best the other day (Pleascach), time will tell.
Not looked at the Ire Derby decs yet, is Highland Reel in the field? he ran well in the Fr Derby & is bred to stay 12f. Would think that he & Gio would be the AOB main hopes in the race against J H.

Figgis & Harry - I don't mean to be antagonistic but everything Feltfair's said in this thread sounds more than reasonable & plausible to me as I've done the same over the last few years and ALWAYS managed to get a fully green book.

The best races for me were the Grand National & the Arc as there was always a fair amount of liquidity there, unlike many other races.
Alas, since Bumfair revised their ante-post terms for Aintree (due to balloting out) it's scuppered my interest as a layer.

I remember in the Gordon Stakes a few years ago when Noble Mission & Encke raced clear...there was a furlong to go and I took the lot available on them for the Leger as it was obvious nothing else was gonna be able to challenge them - Michelangelo was the beaten fav (a distant third) and at the time he was second in the top-heavy betting for Doncaster behind Camelot, and I thought there was a chance he mightn't even make the line up, despite him being around 2/5 ante-post.

It was obvious at Goodwood that Encke & Noble Mission were gonna fight out the finish and seconds after the race, the 70 (if memory serves) had collapsed on both of them and they were greasily laid back at around 10

Now THAT'S after-timing for you guys

Feltfair - "I quickly entered my stake and got matched. Immediately after the race I was able to lay off at a shorter price and the Derby screen turned green"

I always wondered who these greasers were that jumped the queue ahead of me...now I know why I only got 60p on Golden Horn at 16 for the Arc (instead of £60) as he burst clear at Epsom

FF - have you ever NOT had an all-green book on an ante-post race?
I remember having a big liability (over a grand) on Camelot & Great Heavens in the Arc and despite not fancying either, I was shítting my pants though I didn't really have any concerns as neither ever looked like getting involved - it was a far from ideal situation but it worked out fine with a nigh on £2K bonus for me

Navel-Gazer, that is a total different scenario. What was said before the Dante on JH was this "Major negative for me is the clock and will stop me backing him until this doubt is dispelled. Maybe tomorrow". No further posts before the Dante, then after the Dante this, "Glad to have layed him for the Derby at just over 6/1", followed by this, "prior to the Dante I again looked at the Derby market and decided based on clock performances I did not want Jack Hobbs or Zawraq winning too much so layed them both prior to the Dante".

Yours were in running betting decisions, these were clearly not and the statements contradict each other. I'm sure lots of us have laid back in running, either for a profit or to minimise losses, if it wasn't the stated intention beforehand though I don't really see what purpose there is to mention it after a race, apart from as Sintonian says, to save face, it certainly doesn't add to any opinions on the horses.

Fair enough mate though I sense a bit of 'form' between you guys as it's usually so reasonable & laid back on the connoisseurs' forum.

Maybe Feltfair just 'omitted' his lay of Jack Hobbs from his posts...not exactly a crime is it?
Besides, ain't we all done a bit of after-timing on here? I'm probably the worst though I do whinge after I've been hugely unfortunate or had a right royal bumming like the first three days of Ascot last week - it's allowed innit?

I think what we all loathe are the perma-winners who are clearly just bullshítting the rest of us, as if they don't have any losing bets.

Ascot started really bad for me last week with my 'guarantee' of Able Friend at least getting the frame so I could have my free £50 bet on something else, quickly followed by Medicean Man costing

Fair enough mate though I sense a bit of 'form' between you guys as it's usually so reasonable & laid back on the connoisseurs' forum.

Maybe Feltfair just 'omitted' his lay of Jack Hobbs from his posts...not exactly a crime is it?
Besides, ain't we all done a bit of after-timing on here? I'm probably the worst though I do whinge after I've been hugely unfortunate or had a right royal bumming like the first three days of Ascot last week - it's allowed innit?

I think what we all loathe are the perma-winners who are clearly just bullshítting the rest of us, as if they don't have any losing bets.

Ascot started really bad for me last week with my 'guarantee' of Able Friend at least getting the frame so I could have my free £50 bet on something else, quickly followed by Medicean Man costing

Fair enough mate though I sense a bit of 'form' between you guys as it's usually so reasonable & laid back on the connoisseurs' forum.

Maybe Feltfair just 'omitted' his lay of Jack Hobbs from his posts...not exactly a crime is it?
Besides, ain't we all done a bit of after-timing on here? I'm probably the worst though I do whinge after I've been hugely unfortunate or had a right royal bumming like the first three days of Ascot last week - it's allowed innit?

I think what we all loathe are the perma-winners who are clearly just bullshítting the rest of us, as if they don't have any losing bets.

Ascot started really bad for me last week with my 'guarantee' of Able Friend at least getting the frame so I could have my free £50 bet on something else, quickly followed by Medicean Man costing

me nigh-on £600 A short head defeat hurts when it can set you up nicely for the rest of the meeting.

PS - I also needed Divine (took 28/1) in the first FIVE (Wokingham) for 3 placed in a £1 E/W L15...the others were Fire Fighting 20/1 & Astaire 33/1 and that would've got me nearly £650 - the only consolation was that it wasn't desperately unlucky...it just ran a shít race.

Navel-Gazer, picked up by harry and posted on the aftertiming thread

Pre POW stakes

After yesterday`s disappointment just one bet. Ectot e-w hoping he can deliver his pre Arc form

Post POW stakes

I backed The Grey Gatsby place only as he did me a few favours last year

There is plenty of 'form' for this kind of post race comment.

Could've been worse mate...it might've been Amazing Maria bolting home despite seemingly having NO chance!

Ha, yes, I had a few quid on that one in last year's Oaks, finished last.

I got called sensitive for disliking people who aftertime. But for me, there is a bigger picture behind the aftertime. Imo, folk who regulalry do it or feel the need to do it, don't know what they are doing.

..but ofcourse, that is no crime like you say Navel!

Hello Navel, I never realised that telling the truth upset so many people on here or that I should inform everybody on here before I have a bet. As I have said on here I target the 2000 Guineas and the Derby most years. This year it was the Derby and yes it was an all green book and usually is. The only difference is whether my main fancies win or not which dictates whether it is a big win or a poor win.

A good example was the 1000 Guineas a few years ago when I was all over Rainbow View in both the win and place market throughout the Winter and she didn`t even make the frame. No damage but disappointing and since then I have never gone in antepost on 3 year old fillies.

However, Authorized was the jackpot of all time. I daren`t tell you how much I won as it would make a few spit blood and shout boo,hiss and aftertiming.

By the way if you have the time an inclination just check out my posts for the 2000 Guineas,1000 Guineas,Grand National, Scottish Grand National, Arc Triomphe etc etc on this forum.No aftertiming but still attracted negativity,in particular the 2000 Guineas thread. Sad really.
Good luck to you and I hope you won`t expect me to tell you everytime I have a bet.

Sint - what's your view on whining fcuks like me who moan when a photo costs them a packet?
Is that OK or is such 'after-timing' even comparable to the perma-winners' tales?

I've had plenty of sob stories since Aintree which have bummed me for decent amounts but the two most painful were:

Liverly Fella - backed at 140 on here and was 1.01 in the photo!
Diamond Vine - looked all over the winner after being way behind cost me over £2K

I've noticed a recurrent theme over the last 35+ years...the photos which go my way win me hundreds but the 4/5 figure sums I'm in touching distance of ALWAYS lose!

Feltfair - I'm not used to seeing spats on here...I thought everyone got on
As for the AP books...it keeps one's interest in the racing news and is always a nice little earner if you've got a clue about the racing calendar, in keeping an eye on big race entries - I'd guess that was too difficult for many.

Good luck to you squire, even though you're probably the verminous larcenist that snatched the £60 from under my hooter on Golden Horn at 16 for the Arc inside the furlong marker!

Some people who feel there is no need to inform people of having a bet before a race seen extremely keen to inform people on here after a race, always leading to a profit, funny that

* seem

What kept you?

Hi Navel, re the Arc, not guilty.

I call it initiative mate...I'm just taking the piss because I was irritated that someone else was quicker on the draw than I was.

Whatever else I do I will have to back Treve, anything else will have to wait till after the Longchamp trials.

Navel no problem

it wouldn't be so bad if feltfair shared his views but he doesn't

just tells us about his broken clock, then if that's wrong, which it can be (normally once a day with a broken clock) we just get the after view, which is rarely wrong as you can imagine

You`re late.

It's twice a day Harry

it is navel your right its the northumberland plate its playing with my head fecking race

No problems with people aftertiming losers, Navel.

We've all been on the end of massive gubbings. Orfevre in his first Ascot felt like being castrated


And Morgan Be in his Eider Chase when he looked all over the winner, hit 1.01 and.... ah, so painful.

*first Arc.

Just backed that Indian Tinker which was short-headed under Marc Monaghan which reminded me that Suegioo's 4th place at Haydock recently  (16 runner h'cap reduced to 15 with a N

NR with 3 big priced others in the frame...I'll find them in a minute as this PC is knackered.

My Name Is Rio 10/1 2nd
Langley Vale 16/1 2nd
Hot Sauce 14/1 3rd

That was yet another painful day...a £1.25 E/W L15

PS - Monaghan was on Suegioo