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sintonian
25 Apr 15 11:02
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,190 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
A derby horse or massive handicap blot yesterday? 12/1 tops for Epsom now, was 16/1 after race.

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Replies: 90
By:
Send.in.the.clowns
When: 25 Apr 15 11:43
I think it will be a top class 10f hoss
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 25 Apr 15 18:30
If this is a top class horse. Just how has this been got away with for as long as it has? He wins a maiden and gets allotted a mark of 85 for his handicap debut. Massive oversight by the handicapper OR a very well planned coup? Ok we see this happen regularly in early season handicaps but none of them are talked of as potential top class derby horses. To be he will need to be rated at least 110, did he run to that? I am not sure, maybe he did but i am more inclined to think that he could be more suited as he grows up to running in races like the hunt cup etc.
By:
Saritamer
When: 25 Apr 15 21:02
Seen this many times before but it's as much Gosden's enthusiasm as anything else, talking of Dante etc, that makes me think he could be very special. At end of the day we all haven't a clue and are just guessing.
By:
stevo1
When: 25 Apr 15 21:51
Think handicaps be may out,sure to go up stone min imo.
By:
lingbleed
When: 25 Apr 15 23:02
lets not forget it was funny sort of ground ,plenty hated it ,he may of relished it .But it was brilliant to watch ,and let's be honesty this is what the flat season is all about .The true meaning of unexposed .
By:
notenough
When: 26 Apr 15 10:36
Dam was a 6/7f winner. half brother Niceofyoutotellme is by Hernando, an even greater stamina influence than Halling.
...He just gets 10f, and was 2nd in the Cambridgeshire.

at 8/1 , JH is a lay.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 26 Apr 15 11:13
Am sorry but whats his mum and dad got to do with what he can do on the track? I have always been lost with all the breeding talk!

Much prefer the NH game but i am inclined to bet on flat races during the summer. But i only follow the markets and never look at the form as feel the flat game is far more suspect than NH will ever be in regards to how straight it is.
By:
Money Tree cost me thousands!!
When: 28 Apr 15 10:43
Complete cert. Wind derby at a canter.
By:
Figgis
When: 29 Apr 15 09:50
Time wise it was a pretty easy card to get a handle on and Jack Hobbs' time stacks up with the visual impression. On that showing he'd be in the running for a place in an average Derby but in my view he'll need to improve to win one. I know some will say he was value for much more but, for me, such statements are usually exaggerated. JH appeared to be running to his capabilities for most of the race and it was only close to the finish that Dettori eased him down. In such circumstances I often hear a horse was value for another 4 lengths, etc, but the idea that a horse can be running at full speed then lose four lengths+ in a matter of strides from a tug on the reigns is nonsense to me and I'd say the horse was only value for probably another half length. Of course he may improve again but I'll be waiting to see if he does before I consider backing him for the Derby.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 29 Apr 15 09:58
jack hobbs winning the derbyLaugh
By:
Money Tree cost me thousands!!
When: 29 Apr 15 10:59
46 hope your laying then I'll enjoy the drift and my winnings.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 29 Apr 15 11:24
HALLING has only produced 3 group 1 winners in 17 years. will be shocked if JH wins the derby.
By:
Madhu
When: 29 Apr 15 11:46
Not a chance. Just before the race Lydia asked JG about the dogs barking and he basically said he had only won a maiden at Wolverhampton and was thinking more of the horse coming into his own in the autumn. The ground was overly patchy and lets not forget it was a handicap. I was more interested in the Queen's horse and being ridden by Andrea Atzeni as I thought it was a significant booking because of Elm Park ( not sure he had ridden for Her Majesty before). It was interesting his price for the Derby collapsed/halved prior to the race. Yeah I know about Main Sequence but Camelot's Derby was nothing to write home about.  On breeding coming from the Sharpen Up line doubt he would have the class for a mile and a half Derby and moreover, He is a huge horse be worried about the course even though he won on the sharp track at Wolverhampton, downhill on a camber, think not.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 29 Apr 15 13:36
Not a hope in hell. Take the money outside and set fire to it. It'll give you a bigger buzz.
By:
sintonian
When: 29 Apr 15 20:50
Dante next for him. Handicapper has put him up 24lb. Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 29 Apr 15 21:55
I think he's already good enough to take an average Dante, he could well be much shorter after that depending on how strong it turns out to be this year.
By:
lingbleed
When: 29 Apr 15 23:16
where do you find that out sintonian
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Apr 15 19:59
Read it on twitter, lingbleed. Is it incorrect?
By:
lingbleed
When: 30 Apr 15 22:30
I don't know sintonian i had no reaso to ? it  ,i was just wondering for further reference ,as its something i would like to check more often ,prob BHA website
By:
Madhu
When: 01 May 15 00:05
Hi Lingbleed. Racing Post and Sporting Life and trainer’s website news sections are useful. Marco Botti and Hugo Palmer are very honest in particular, through experience. Stan James are a serious length of time ahead of other bookies on declarations for early closing race such as the forthcoming Chester Cup. Betfair are obviously much faster than transmissions described as "live" but suffer from inertia on these counts but our shared forum is fast due to activism. Sintonian’s enqury was not meant to put you on your back-foot. Others are known for being confrontational and ego driven, and renowned for getting egg in their face but we are all here to make fools of ourselves prophesying, and ‘let's be honesty this is what the flat season is all about .’ Best of luck.
By:
kincsem
When: 01 May 15 10:45
Looked good but not for me.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 13 May 15 15:31
Looks extremely short priced for the dante taking on some group 1 & 2 winners off levels.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 13 May 15 18:03
Lots of positives,Gosden getting Frankie on side just like Peter Chapple Hyam did with Authorized,Sandown win visually very impressive and the betting suggests a level of confidence surrounding the horse.

Major negative for me is the clock and will stop me backing him until this doubt is dispelled. Maybe tomorrow.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 May 15 22:16
I think the price for Jack Hobbs is quite generous, I was expecting him to be shorter so he's a bet for me. I already have him ahead of the opposition, despite some runners having Group form on paper it is them that need to improve. His time at Sandown was good, less than half a second slower than the well contested Gp3 for older horses. It's difficult to see how he can be crabbed from a time angle unless you believe all the races run at Sandown that day were slow. I think he'll need to improve on that to win an average Derby, but not by much as long as he stays the 12f equally well. As it was only his second ever start and his first run of the season it's entirely possibly he could progress a few pounds. Whether he does or not he already sets a decent standard and in my view it'll take a Derby winning performance to beat him in the Dante.
By:
metro john
When: 14 May 15 03:39
Totally agree Figgis.
By:
metro john
When: 14 May 15 03:43
So glad that Jack made his debut at Wolverhampton(The UK s  finest AW track) Thank you Johnny G.CoolLoveLoveLoveLove
By:
metro john
When: 14 May 15 03:57
I suggest a few quid worth investing on Sherlock Holmes for the Derby at 33/1 plus, makes debut on the 17th may still in both English and Irish, the Dam was fantastic and ready too go.Yes a guess!
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 May 15 18:29
whats the verdict on jack hobbs now, still going to win the derby???
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 15 18:46
In fairness to the poster who fancied JH to win the Derby, he's just finished second in the strongest recognised trial to the current Derby fav, while running quite green in the process. There have been far worse calls.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 14 May 15 19:31
Far better performance against the clock than at Sandown but limitations exposed today. Glad to have layed him for the Derby at just over 6/1 given that I can back him at double those odds now should I so choose.

The doubts over Golden Horn`s participation at Epsom further muddies the water so will wait for the dust to settle after the Irish Guineas and the Gallinule coupled with the next forfeit stage before finalising my position.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 15 19:36
Well done on the aftertime lay.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 14 May 15 19:42
Go suck a lemon.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 15 19:50
Major negative for me is the clock and will stop me backing him until this doubt is dispelled

So "stop me backing him" actually meant you were laying him? Right ok.

Maybe tomorrow

And the strategy was to lay him at 6s with the possibility of backing him back at much shorter if he won. All adds up now Silly
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 14 May 15 19:55
Go suck a lemon.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 15 20:50
Only after a tequila shot. And like some posts on here, best taken with a pinch of salt Happy
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 May 15 21:09
you always get the crazy selections on these threads, generally just ignore those. thought the OP hadnt a very strong view on JH, judging by the write up. yes run well today, was the breeding that put me completely off the
horses derby chances. the trainer wasnt over enthusiastic about its credentials either. suppose closer to derby day, the picture will become much clearer and can make a better informed choice on the day of the race.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 May 15 23:21
totally agree figgis normal filth from feltfair...no matter what happens he can't lose


funny
By:
sintonian
When: 15 May 15 06:08
I had no strong opinion on JH one way or tother. He's run well considering his last race was in a handicap.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 15 May 15 09:54
Like a pimple on the bottom Figgis and poor old Harry are starting to irritate me.

Let me say and as explained in previous posts I target the Derby every year and have been trading in the ante post market for some months and yes Harry all runners are in the green.

However, I did not want Jack Hobbs or Zawraq winning too much because of clock considerations and therefore traded Jack Hobbs before the Dante and I have done the same with Zawraq. As it has turned out I could have layed Zawraq shorter given all the disappointments in the Dante.So be it.

So you can boo and hiss if Zawraq bolts up in the Irish Guineas and goes on to win the Derby but he will still be a small winner.

Watch this space to find out my preferred Derby outcomes once the declaration stage has come and the likely going is known.

Hope this is sufficient notice for you and not too filthy for you Harry,such a sensitive soul.
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