Aintree Hurdle

agree re A F big lay for me

If anyone believes that Arctic Fire just came from a long way back and passed tired horses to get 2nd place then I suggest they watch a rerun of the race. I'm not necessarily saying he wins.

Can't have Jezki at all. Arctic Fire beat him by 7 lengths and going away at Cheltenham. It will be interesting to see just how good AF could be. If you took AF of the champion hurdle we would be saying that Faugheen had destroyed his rivals. He is only 6 and Mullins has already stated he expects a lot more improvement in him so I think he could just be a very good horse. Its the first time this season we will see him running on his own merits and I expect him to win this easily.

Here's my take.

Arctic Fire was certainly NOT flattered at Cheltenham. They went a crawl (5 seconds slower than in the Supreme Novices) and Arctic Fire wasn't best positioned; he also went too far wide around the home bend. I clocked him as quickening nearly as well as Faugheen. I rated him in the late 160's on that performance.

However, I've always been of the view that the horse is all about speed and his turn of foot. I'm convinced that he's a 2 miler all-day and that the extra 4 furlongs will see him struggling to get home. I won't be backing him but he's clearly the best horse in the race.

Jezki, on the basis of his form last season, would win this easily. However, the horse has clearly gone back the way this season. Harrington's been claiming he wasn't fit, but he's been beaten time and again by a 160 or so Hurricane Fly including on ground which suits Jezki much more. I would say he has only been running to marks of 150-155 all season and 20 furlongs isn't certain to suit given how keen he was in the Champion.

Rock on Ruby ran up to marks of between 160 and 164 when winning over this distance this season. He has plenty of toe, but clearly gets the distance well. He's consistent and will enjoy the ground. He should be favourite.

However, I'm backing Volnay de Thaix who is way overpriced at 16/1. He ran a huge race off 158 in the ever competitive Coral Cup. He was prominent the whole way and just faded late. I think that performance is better than anything Jezki's done this season and not far off Rock on Ruby. Unlike Arctic Fire, he's bound to stay. The flatter track will suit and the distance is ideal. He looks rock solid to place minimum. GL

Arctic Fire certainly didn't shape like a non stayer in the CL hurdle, he was staying on best of all after sustaining a long effort from about 2 from home. Also watch his previous runs this season in Ireland and I think you would be hard pressed to put a case forward for him being a speed horse. He stayed on as well as anything even in defeat so I'm banking on the extra 4 furlongs on a flat track on good ground being to his advantage. No other horse has form like AF put up in running Faugheen to 1.5 lengths last time out. He is the only horse that has even remotely looked like getting close to Faugheen and should be much shorter than 2/1 imo.

He didn't, I agree, but the race was slowly run which suits his style.

If you watch his penultimate start, his run really peters out after he quickens well.

I'm very confident he won't get home tomorrow, but I love the horse so would be happy to be wrong. Backed him at 50/1 for the CH immediately after the Champion.