Scottish National 2015 (4 against the field)

For me it has to be ALCO fell at the first... at Aintree if he is ok... may redeem himself

Also scottish winner with LIE FORRIT

Ill look at declarations before getting another 2!

Forget Al Co. Its good to soft (soft in places) just now. We are expecting almost 3 days of heavy rain until Thursday. Ayr does dry quickly but Im guessing its going to be soft at best and that aint good news for him.

Not sure why Lie Forrit should run any better off an 8lb higher mark than last year unless he really does need it much softer than he got last year?

Harry the Viking could go well now he's been revitalised and Drop Out Joe looks like this test is right up his street, bringing Donny form to the table and all ground coming alike to him. Sego Success and Broadway Buffalo would be the other two.

I like a horse placed in the festival 4 miler for this.
Broadway Buffalo for me.

Will be interesting to see whether CANTLOW or GOONYELLA turn up for this?

I sure McCoy will ride CANTLOW again currently 25s he didnt run too bad in the Irish National at all... and is on an even lower mark...

If the weather is forecast to be believed GOONYELLA (also 25s) has a good chance.

Might be worth a punt before decs as if declared wont be that price.

Raz du Maree should run if its soft and he is very well.

Trustan Times e-w for me

Anywon heard if Goonyella is an intended runner ?

I hope GOONYELLA runs in this... did so well in the Midlands National - general opinion is he needs a bog to run at his best - but read comments via trainer that was not necessarily the case....

Anyway, Does anyone know whether BENVOLIO is an intended runner? He is on an eye catching 10 9 Im not sure thats why Nicholls is running SAM WINNER to keep the weights down? He was on 11 2 in the Welsh National so 10 9 definantly a winning mark?

Like him myself was down for the grand national but skipped it for this
very light weight great chance

Could change my mind every 5 minutes for this, and the head says go with the decent novices, Sego Success, and Broadway Buffalo, or the Gold Cup runners, Sam Winner, and Houblon Des Obeaux, who ran Many Clouds close in The Hennessy, but as the thread is for 4, I'll go for 4 outsiders each way, to (unwisely) part with my cash. I have actually parted with a few quid for Guess Again, but I can see him taking up his Sandown option.

Edmund Kean - Despite being touted for this last year, he went off 25-1, and after a few mistakes, he eventually pulled up. Nothing to write home about since then, but did show a bit more last time, keeping on over the shorter distance. I like to keep a close eye on Bowen runners in races like this, and I made sure I didn't let one of his go unbacked last year. Unfortunately it was Pure Faith I went with. Bowen was very enthusiastic about Edmund Kean before Chepstow so I'm hoping there's a big prize in there somewhere, and with him getting here 7lbs lower than last year, I'll risk a few quid at 33's.

Summery Justice - Moody, and his jumping can be suspect. I think he would have got much closer in The Eider, but for his jumping, after smoothly coming through the field on the second circuit. 5th in this last year at 50's, and comes here 4lb lower this time. 40's

Drop Out Joe - Looked like a stamina test would suit him last time at Doncaster, and but for clouting a couple, might have got closer to Wayward Prince, though don't think he would have won. Highly tried against the likes of Irish Saint, and Kings Palace earlier in the season, this looks more suitable. 28's

Vintage Star - A leap of faith I suppose, but after a truly dire run at Cheltenham (I backed him ) he looks to have his work cut out. He's got bits and pieces in staying chases over the last couple of years that might see him scrape into the places, and he went into the 3 miler at Cheltenham last year quietly fancied off 143. Down 10lbs since then, the only representative from National winning owner Trevor Hemmings, and I'm hoping for a big race double for him.

Good luck with whatever you go for.

Should have said took 66's Vintage Star, and 90's to 100's on here. Don't all rush to follow me in

anybody know who is likely to ride catching on ?

I would put Goonyella away for the season , 3 hurdle races next season & then Aintree with his higher mark .

McCoy on Benvolio... on at @20s

Thanks Iris just took the 20s Boyles had on offer think this is the reason why McCoy
did not retire after Grand National

Iris as a matter of interest where did you see McCoy being on Benvolio

RP are reporting it Tim

yep ... Fabulous is right... was on the front page small print...

Think he has a decent chance.

Thanks Fab McCoy riding a Nicholls horse nuff said

The last samuri, good course form which has been franked, nice low racing weight and he's by Milan who gets plenty of extreme stayers. Slight reservations about his jumping but I'm backing at the price. Really fancy houblon for next years national so interested how he goes tomorrow, gut feeling he will struggle with top weight as did Neptune collognes a few years back before winning national.

Granted, McCoy riding for Nicholls deserves a second glance given he has a 40% strike rate over fences for him but I have my reservations about a horse that was clearly improved by blinkers at Chepstow but didnt replicate the effort next time at a course where he had previously won at. The jurys out on that one.

Actually, the ground could be much better than I anticipated as its good to soft (soft in places) with no more rain forecast and windy sunny days. I go to the race most years and its quite unbelievable how quickly the course can dry out - it could conceivably be good ground on saturday.

If it is i wouldnt rule out Wayward Prince at 33-1 as he has been wearing a different bridle (not sure what they are called but they are circular and sit just above the nostrils!). He wore one for the first time when he won the Grimthorpe and again last time at Ascot. Out the Black also won the Grimthorpe as a 11yo and was placed in the Ascot veterans race before finishing 3rd at Ayr. Donny form often holds up at Ayr and on good ground he would be one out of the back of the hand for me, especially off his low weight.

BTW just read McManus has bought Gallant Oscar so doubt that AP will be on Benvolio now. Cue gamble on Gallant Oscar!!

ap will have to chop a leg off to ride oscar,

Raz de Maree has got to be a great bet if turning up. The pull in the weights with last run on Goonyella is massive

Didnt think about the weight issue 1st time and I see Paul Carberry has been booked to ride.

This is a very trappy race, the more i look, the more I fancy. You really could make a case for loads of em - a good mixture of seasoned handicappers and lightly raced sorts. Think I'll give it a swerve!!

Gallant Oscar and Lie Forrit for me.

With Edmund Kean not going, I'll replace him with Amigo, and hope Vintage Star scrapes in.

If he doesn't, I'll stick with 3.

AL CO 16/1 (365 nr/nb B.O.G) looks a good bet to me . Just watched a re run of last years race and he won easy.. ears pricked and spring heeled at the last, idling in front.

Conditions look identical to last year and he's only 5lbs higher but now has the assistance of the fantastic claimer Bowen so 3lbs knocked off. Was laid out for our national but a first fence unseat shouldnt be a problem.

^ unless it's unnerved him.

Four against the field

In preference order

Raz de Maree
Cogry
Houblon des Obeaux
Goonyella

Anyone know any firms NRNB I'm off to Spain this weekend and need to know before my flight at 12:25 tomorrow lunchtime in the gatwick north lounge so internet no probs.

Stick em all in a treble Arsenal + 2 Saturday and Vautour 2016 Cheltenham gold cup any price you like, just form a long queue behind me.

Oh and for the brave Windsor Park world hurdle 2016

Billy,Lads,Fred

Thanks facts I noticed lads were5 minutes later .

Benvolio a Non Runner

Vintage Star (1st reserve) to replace the Nicholls horse

only way he could get on gallant oscar haha

TRUSTAN TIMES looks great in this, COGRY lacks experience but from a handicapping viewpoint of much interest,have bet both prefer Trustan with experience.

Milborough e/w for me.

Catching on for me in this. Form of his wins has been franked several times albeit at a lower level than this. Has been winning with any amount in hand. He is a guaranteed stayer and won both starts on good earning the quote very impressive in his point to point win so ground should be fine. Very trappy race though I do agree.

My final 4 against the field are
1 ALCO
2 Harry the Viking
3 Sam winner
4 Lie Forrit

My final 4 against the field are
1 ALCO
2 Harry the Viking
3 Sam winner
4 Lie Forrit

My final 4 against the field are:
1 COGRY
2 Weisentraum
3 Harry The Viking
4 Man With Van

My Final 4:
Alco           15/1 (Knows the Course but Not much recent form)

Trustan Times  16/1 (Knows Ayr, not much recent form but conditions were not ideal when raced)

Lie Forrit     23/1 (Good class but maybe a bit dry today)

?Milborough?   35/1 (dont think will get the ground but will distance)

Wayward Prince
Drop Out Joe
Catching On
Sego Success

My Final 4

Vintage Star
Amigo
Summery Justice
Drop Out Joe

Gallant Oscar out

Will back Amigo and Wayward Prince e-w.  Wouldn`t count any of them out.

Well done winners !

Good stuff, betilyerded is the flipping master of Ayr. I remember him giving us the last couple of Ayr Gold Cup winners too.

^ did he have a bet ?



betilyerded     16 Apr 15 13:56 
Didn't think about the weight issue 1st time and I see Paul Carberry has been booked to ride.

This is a very trappy race, the more i look, the more I fancy. You really could make a case for loads of em - a good mixture of seasoned handicappers and lightly raced sorts. Think I'll give it a swerve!!

I did have a bet in the end - a measly £8 @ 50-1, which admittedly is better than a bunch in the balls but i usually have £30 e/w on my main fancy for the race and another couple of tenners e/w. just bad timing really as Ive not had the most productive couple of months and i guess its sods law that when I land one I havent got much on. hey-ho.

Ayr has been good to me Tucho, both the Scottish national and the Gold Cup - maybe I'll just stick to betting on those two races!!

That's the beauty of havng a betting bank, and backing a fraction of it each bet, allowing for a long losing run. This means you don't reduce your stakes, so when the good priced winner comes up, you have your usual stake on it.

I have a bank that would cover 50 consecutive losers. Not that it gets anywhere near that limit, but such a good ' cushion' stops the panic/doubts from creeping in ! I bet same stake ,win only . Only bet one horse in a day, not every day, occasionally 2 a day at the ' festivals ' . My focus is  on Class 1 - 3 races at Grade 1 tracks. This usually gives a good average sp over the year (  c 13/2). Review bank at end of each month, and recalculate the following months stake from the balance carried forward.

Yeah, good advice and tbh its kind of what I used to do although not as regimented (for want of a better word). I had a bank account for betting purposes only which always had a min of £500 in it but not any longer, hence money lost on betting is money that could have been used for other things too, hence the clouded judgement and doubt. I had a miserable Cheltenham and Aintree so have had to reign it in a bit. There you go!

Now you have won a bit, put some by as a new starting bank, and slowly slowly hopefully build it up.
Yep, betting with the Mortgage money ( so to speak ) is bound to impair judgement.
Good luck in the future

Nice one Betilyerded, picked the wrong time to stop stalking you

Well done also Leonardo, and Feltfair.

Used to bet Wayward Prince regularly, and was gutted when I missed him in The Grimthorpe. Was more than happy to rule him out for Ayr after that run though

Cheers Fabulous.
What did you make of Hillbilly Boy in the Lincoln btw? Didnt see the trip out in my eyes, particularly with the strong headwind. Looks the sort for something like the Bunbury Cup but July seems such a long way off just now, particularly with races like the Victoria Cup and Buckingham Palace to come first, but is the trainers local track and who knows, a couple of dodgy draws between then and now could see him line up with a proper chance (assuming the trainers thinking the same way!!)

Also see that Guess Again is still in the Whitbread..sorry.. BET365 on saturday at this point at least. I know Tony Martin has Gallant Oscar in but he came out of Ayr last saturday due to the ground and I cant see it being any slower this weekend. If its still in after todays decs Im going to have a few quid on, especially if its still 33-1. Malcolm Denmark won the race with Hennessy a few years back - with McCoy up funilly enough. What chance a repeat if theres no JP runners in the race?

Guess Again left in and no Gallant Oscar. In fact no JP horses but Jonjo has left in Lost Legend who has some sort of chance but could McCoy do the weight if the top ones run?
Think I'll take the risk on Guess Again at 33-1.

why set yourself artifical targets,on a busy weekend there might be 10 class 1 to 3 races which you may have a fancy in ,why narrow it down to 1 or 2 bets,then maybe have 14 bets in the next 2 weeks on horses you fancy less than the 10 on the saturday,
this strikes me as what i call snobish punting [ alah mellish] as though the less bets you have the greater the selection, level stakes is another, some of the most succesful punters had maxims such as
the more you fancy it the more you have on
the bigger the price the more you have on

each to their own

Hi Betil, was fairly happy with Hillbilly, and I think you've nailed it as to what beat him. I had The Buckingham Palace in mind for him, but will definitely be trying to keep him on side this season, wherever he goes.

I bet Guess Again last night at 42's, and took a wee bit of 36's a few minutes ago. I bet him for Ayr last week, but always preferred the idea of Sandown for him, fingers crossed it all goes to plan. I would have made a very small profit on Amigo each way on Saturday, but my bet on Guess Again made it a loser...........so he owes me

I'll probably bet another couple during the week (or make more sense to wait till the final decs). I'll stick them up on the race thread.

Good luck.

1st time poster     20 Apr 15 18:30 

why set yourself artifical targets,on a busy weekend there might be 10 class 1 to 3 races which you may have a fancy in ,why narrow it down to 1 or 2 bets,then maybe have 14 bets in the next 2 weeks on horses you fancy less than the 10 on the saturday,
this strikes me as what i call snobish punting [ alah mellish] as though the less bets you have the greater the selection, level stakes is another, some of the most succesful punters had maxims such as
the more you fancy it the more you have on
the bigger the price the more you have on

each to their own

Having a ' fancy '  for a horse doesn't come into the equation.
My bets are governed by a set of rules. If a horse falls within a certain set of key performance indicators that is the bet.if there are more than one qualifier, further selection processes eliminates in order of priority.

Level stakes ( on an increasing basis) works best for me

I record all my bets. Years of data show that  the sequence of winners/ losers is quite random.
Sometimes the classier/ bigger races produce the winners, other times it's lesser races. As long as the rules have been followed , it does even itself out.

It works for me. As you say, each to his own.