Kippers Big Race Analysis

Dutch Masterpiece pulled out grrr....

Robert Le Diable my subsitute to back and set up lay as breaks well and travels.... back 18/1, lay 5/1....

Another place....

We'll done.

Northumberland Plate......I had 4 but Taws not made it in the final decs.  The draw a little unkind too to a couple of them but Im on Aramist 25/1, Quest For More 12/1 and Oasis Fantasy 12/1.  Strangely 4 and 6 year olds do really well but 5 year olds struggled....odd but hopefully that wont hold this year as two of my selections are 5

Backed Oasis Fantasy again this time eway at 12/1 PP 5 places....seems fair

and Aramist again at 25/1 Betway 4 places. Need a winner not a place this time !

As I'm the only poster, I'll close this thread, cheers to the contributers

I wouldn't let that put you off...

Well done Kipper,sorry I`ve been busy.

THanks chaps, its just I was thinking the thread may contain more discussion but I think the specific big race threads supersede this one

nah its useful to isolate some opinions ...

the forums all about opinions and strategies, if its on another thread so what...

when you start getting a return people will know... but can start slow.

Quick recap as hit the bar a few times and had a few main picks missing the cut / pulled out plus I rarely back below 10/1 and most are 20/1 + and there are 25/1 and 50/1 winners elsewhere on this forum from me and I dont post often other than this thread now

Scottish National - one of two main fancies pulled out (gallant oscar who was on watchlist) other picks unsighted
Bet 365 - 3rd 4th 5th.....
Chester Cup - Altaayil missed the cut (on my watchlist), Duke of Clarence was given little chance after being drawn widest of all, ran ok in midfield, backed Trip to Paris who won but couldnt post here that day
Victoria Cup - Bertiewhittle pulled out, Baraweez big punt from 33/1 to 10/1 but midfield
Epsom Dash - Desert Law won for me at 25/1, Boom The Groom placed, Confessional nowhere
Ascot Stakes - Elishpour hampered but placed at 33/1 other two behind
Hunt Cup - Buckstay not declared (on my watchlist) so backed Chil The Kite hampered but 3rd at 16/1, American Hope 33/1 finished well to get 6th with Paddy Power paying 6 places, Munaaser a Stoute stinker again at Ascot
Britannia Stakes - Dancetrack pulled out, Rotherwick a place in 5th at 20/1 the other unsighted
King George - Keep in LIne 25/1 awful
Wokingham - main fancies on watchlist pulled out (Telmeyd, Zalty, Dutch Masterpiece) Backed Dinkum Diamond and Tatlisu who were poor, Robert Le Diable saved the day in 2nd
Duke of Edinburgh - my biggest bet of the week and a rare bet at under 10/1 in a big handicap Arab Dawn wins well for me at 7/1. Famous Kid hampered and so close to being in the 5 places at 33/1
Northumberland Plate - Taws not declared so on Aramist, Oasis Fantasy who were poor and the winner Quest For More at 12/1

Already working on Old Newton, John Smiths and Bunbury

Fancy Watersmeet 10/1 for Old Newton Cup, ran well at Ascot back going left handed,may reverse form with the 3rd that day?
Off same mark which maybe too high,but other trends in favour and form of 2 runs back very decent.

Hi Stevo.....this is where I am on the Old Newton.....

Big negatives are horses who raced a week ago or less so out are Notarised, Mighty Yar (liked the form of this one too), the two Gabrials, Saoi
Also out is Windshear off such a high mark (although dropping lately and I struggle to get Hannon and Johnston horses right !)
Out are Johnstons as he is 1 winner from 26 in this so hardly targets it....
I'm not liking the form of Fractal, Lungarno Palace, Pressure Point, Curbyourenthusiasm, Apterix
First race in a while is usually a negative too but I'm not easily dismissing Battersea but dumping Excellent Result, Wadi Al Hattawi
Im not sure on John Reel re trip and fast ground so dropping
Farquhar is interesting from a yard I like and first runner in this, just seems to be better with cut ?
Elbereth won really well last time but has an awful lot more to do in this so not for me
Kinema again, not one Im sure of, good enough ?

My shortlist.....
Astronerous - some amazing form of late against solid horses must run a race and be thereabouts
Battersea - did really well last year before a stinker at Newmarket and seasonal debut is negative but definitely has ability
Great Hall - runs quite well when firm in the ground although last race wasnt too good but was season debut and means 10lb better with Notarised here
Nancy From Nairobi - always runs into a "good one" but seems way overpriced to me at 33/1 ?! Not sure what I'm missing here and expected 16/1 so has to be a bet if running. Only beaten 6 l in G2 Ribblesdale, ran Mahsoob to a neck off levels (Mahsoob now OR 111 and Nancy 95), much better off with Elbereth too for a couple of lengths yet Elbereth 14/1
Penhill - yard dominated this years ago, less so now though but always worth keeping runners close

So.....

Have to bet Astronereus more of a saver though for me at 7/1 ish. I think Penhill may be short enough for what its achieved too so no bet. Battersea I will reluctantly pass by due to lack of recent run but will revisit if one of selections doesnt run. Great Hall at 16/1+ is a bet for me as is Nancy from Nairobi at 33/1

Likely to bet something like

Nancy From Nairobi 25 eway
Great Hall 40 win
Astronerous 60 win

Agree Nancy well overpriced @33s will have saver. Astronereus form ties in with my fancy Watersmeet.

Indeed Watersmeet has every right to be up close to my pick Astronerous, just with Astronerous coming out on top when they meet and having less runs there maybe more improvement to come but with a small swing in the weights there shouldnt be much between them again

Wish someone would go 33/1 Nancy, 5 places, no runner no bet ......

Worth waiting for decs/nrnb Stevo re Nancy as entered Fri, Sat and at York the week after

Thanks Kipper,and ggod luck

The decs and odds swings have changed my approach to this race...

Astronerous not declared, 7lb claimer booked for Nancy for Nairobi weakens confidence dramatically. A huge shortening on Battersea and Penhill as low as 4/1 ?!

Some poor value imo so my final bets will be

20 win Mighty Yar @ 12/1
25 win Great Hall @ 20/1
20 win Farquhar @ 16/1
5 eway Nancy from Nairobi @ 33/1

Still not backed the winner lol? ( Watersmeet ) Had saver on Nancy at 33s but as you state not positive jockey booking, even though he has had few winners lately in low class events.

Aha, maybe I am on the wrong one, hopefully if mine lose you get the winner ! Re Nancy, as I said, I thought the horse was well in when compared to Mahsoob and Elbereth and not needing 7lb off its back. My doubt was the trip as seemingly much better over 10F than 12f ? Jockey booking put me right off ! Ive liked Great Hall all along, have doubts around Mighty Yar and Farquhar but much rather be on them at decent odds than taking chance on fitness (Battersea) or ability (Penhill) at 4/1 and 6/1

Cheers Kipper good luck mate,think Charles Hills horse in sprint will go close in Sprint at Sandown Saturday?

Ill probably give Notarised a chance for the Old Newton Cup - he has a nice racing weight Silvestre on board... horse runs a bad race/ good race pattern...

Johnston horses difficult to predict bur id take a chance on him at 20/1

Jul 2, 2015 -- 10:18PM, stevo1 wrote:

Cheers Kipper good luck mate,think Charles Hills horse in sprint will go close in Sprint at Sandown Saturday?

I only looked briefly at the Sprint and thought Waady would be my bet if having something as you typically need a low draw and be race fit ie 30 days or less since last race. I'm a big fan at Dutch Masterpiece though although was hoping he would pop up in a big handicap at a juicy price but was pulled out of the Wokingham on the day. This looks v tough though but had a tenner eway at 66/1

Jul 2, 2015 -- 10:26PM, IrisDeBalme wrote:

Ill probably give Notarised a chance for the Old Newton Cup - he has a nice racing weight Silvestre on board... horse runs a bad race/ good race pattern...Johnston horses difficult to predict bur id take a chance on him at 20/1

Hi IDB, I always swerve Johnston, NEVER ever get them right lol

In the Coral Challenge, Im having two small win bets on two very disappointing horses of late, one tipped higher up in the Hunt Cup - Munaaser and Baltic Knight. Around 33/1 each on the exchange

Few non runners around, Mighty Yar pulled out yesterday so replaced with a tenner on Kinema in Old Newton at 17/1 on here, leaves me with Farquhar and Great Hall and my eway on Nancy

Dutch Masterpiece on my watchlist out of the group race, Taws on my watchlist for being well handicapped badly treated in a listed race so not for me, although had eway double on Waady and Havana Beat at around 5/2 each

Only just looked at this race which is just as well as the ground has changed dramatically in the last day or two. For me the clock says Penhill,Great Hall,Apterix and Gabrials Star.

Will back the first two each way.

Good luck Kipper.

Good luck Feltfair, yes its been a race of many changes from runners to going. Not much angle left really but happy enough with my selections. Hopefully Great Hall for us both :)

Waady...so much ability :)

Munaaser.....so close......

Hate Mark Johnston......unlucky with Watersmeet

Brave performance after last week`s ball buster at Newcastle.

sure was, I can never get Johnston right so tend to avoid which can be costly like this race. His horses are so in and out and imo win when at a price, flop when shorter.... Shame Farquhar was so far back during the race after tardy start as couldnt get my in running lay matched as always behind :(

Mark Johnston has been on hot form recently certainly a trainer to follow after Ascot...they run really well... then they run out of steam by mid august and pick up again... but yeah difficult trainer to get right sometines

They certainly are thought Watersmeet would go by but?

Good shout again Iris. You're in hot form yourself

Excellent selection indeed IDB wish I had got over my Johnston block and followed you in !!

Funny day yesterday, Waady got me off to a good start, I missed out on my Havana Beat lay at 1.8 when he went to 1.93 or similar, Munaaser almost got me a hefty return, the Old Newton went to pot to some extent with Astronerous not being declared, the market and jockey booking screaming that Nancy from Nairobi wasnt fancied for this, my observation that Great Hall seemed to produce some really good form on Gd - Fm or better and the going went on the soft side and Farquhar missing the break lol. I need to follow you guys on Johnston runners as I'm hopeless with his whereas you two got the forecast !

From my experience its better to stick with what you know and how your system works for you...

If you don't back Johnston... that's fine... I have some trainers I don't touch too...

you win some and lose some ...but if your in a profit at the end that's all that counts

I do IDB, shame Johnston having such a great season though !

Bunbury still has too many declared but in the John Smiths Im on Abseil 16/1 Voice of a Leader 25/1 and will supplement with the one Haggas declares

Bunbury Cup and john Smiths, two cracking Handicaps. If Lightning Spear runs in either, I will back him. If not, then at the moment I like Jelota in the Bunbury and Arab Dawn in the John Smiths.

Decided Ayaar is the better bet in the Bunbury. Sticking with Arab Dawn for JS.

The way I profile big handicaps seems to oppose the bookies view in the John Smiths....either Im way wrong or have an edge lol

My shortlist -

Weakest and unlikely to be backed are Odeon and Educate who are both heading towards winning marks again, maybe not quite there yet though
Fahey isnt usually too far away in this and Loving Spirit is difficult to read up in trip
Im surprised Forgotten Hero is 33/1, hes quite tempting at that price if 5 places
I will be backing Haggas in this though and I was waiting eagerly to see who was declared. Homage at 25/1 and Battalion at 20/1 do appeal. Tricky to read, especially Battalion whose form seems to suggest better with cut (dry few days forecast so unlikely)
My main bet and one Ive been waiting for is Voice of a Leader. 20/1 still seems decent and he will carry my main bet in this with savers on the Haggas pair

My likely bets are going to be

50 eway Voice of a Leader
25 win Battalion
25 win Homage

Bunbury Cup looks tougher than this imo, still pondering that one

Ive also done a speculative each way double on Buckstay tomorrow at 10/1 and Voice of a Leader at 20/1....tenner each way double....you never know

Bunbury Cup not easy is it ?

Im torn between recent form of Jalotta and One Word More at 14/1 and 16/1 versus the solid handicap form but skinnyish odds of Chil The Kite at 8/1, the in and out Field of Dreams at 25/1 and the potentially well handicapped Horsted Keynes at 25/1

Im thinking

Chill the Kite 40 win at 8/1
Field of Dreams 20 win at 25/1
Horsted Keynes 30 win at 25/1

Tough race

Buckstay again not quite getting the run of the race from not the best draw and taking a while to get going being done a head.....grrrr.....this horse has such quality form in big races but rarely gets his head in front....need Voice of a Leader to place at least to land the place double

Voice of a Leader my main bet tomorrow hammered in the betting today at around 11/1 12/1

Great run there from picks on here Astronerous and Great Hall following Buckstays close up 2nd yesterday

Terrible in big races today :(

Nothing to offer Kipper ?
Would have thought the two big H'caps from Ascot and York were right up your street ,

Much prefer the jumps Facts so left the flat alone this season. Tried looking at the Cambridgeshire and these were my ramblings to the betting club Im in last week


Tough race, 35 runners, 100/1, 40/1 and 33/1 winners in the past 11 years it’s a lottery !



Some basic  “trends” that might help narrow the field down are



Horses aged 7 and older are 0 from 61 (only a couple of runners this year)

Horses rated 105 + are 1 win in 41 tries along with only 1 winner in 66 tries for horses carrying 9st 6+

At the other end, horses rated lower than 87 are 0 in 81

You also tend to need to not be disgraced last time out as horses outside the last 10 on their last start are 0 from 99

On a lesser note those horses having had more than 8 runs this season already are 0 from 113 (Fire fighting, Bronze Angel, Birdman, Ginger Jack, Gabriels Kaka, Ifwecan, Mistiroc, Obsidian, Artful Prince)



Looking at previous winners, a lot had course form, having won here or placed at least. Another profile view seemed to be horses not winning that regularly but running well enough to be on a career high rating but without be overraced so with a bit more to come rather than horses held back to lower their mark



Bronze Angel has won this twice and won really well again last time that he must be thereabouts but trends say he may be a little too high this time and a lesser raced improver could be the one to look for



Some of the obvious ones are -



I kept looking at Brendan Bracken but no course form and sliding back down the handicap doesn’t typically fit



Nafaqa is a horse I really like and Im sure he is on a decent mark based on some sparkling form but he seems to flatter and get beaten regularly. Also Hills has run 14 in this across the years and only managed a place



Prince Gargarin has good course form but is again dropping down the handicap on recent runs and the trainer 0 from 6 in this



Abseil is popular in the markets but no course form and trainer is 1 place in 11 runners



Earth Drummer is popular, just the lack of course form and trainer 0 from 6 puts me off a little



Master The World is for Elsworth who has won this twice before and has won twice at the course. Im just not sure hes on a winnable mark



Donncha might not be far away but a lack of course form



Halation is closely matched with Educate who I like and has been 2nd at the track in 1 run to date and was on the shortlist



Mussadas is 1 from 1 at the track and wont be far away but Suroor drives me mad with his lack of winners when I back them and he hasn’t even made a place in this from 10 runners



Forgotten Hero was close to being a pick as has fair course form but just not sure it’s the winner



My Dream Boat has shot up 20lb this season already and is going up again soon so well in here in theory but that’s quite a rise



Man of Harlech is again quite fancied but has no course form but trainer has not even a place in 9 runners so far



Third Time Lucky isn’t far off favourite but with no course form and Fahey 1 place in 16 runners he may not be the best bet here at 12/1



My Picks…….



Cant back anything with confidence as so few angles but the ones Im thinking that may run better than the odds suggest are



EDUCATE – won this before, ran well last year and a massive swing in the weights with the winner Bronze Angel. Could easily have been laid out for this with a few poor runs of late 33/1



PORTAGE – looks the form pick and only negative is the lack of course form. Slowly going up the ratings and on a career high, in form and well weighted means he should be thereabouts 12/1



EXPRESS HIMSELF – interesting one, running well, two places in two runs at the course, career high and of interest at 33/1



EXAMINER – weaker pick perhaps, placed at the course, just off career high, trainers first runner. Moved from Haggas earlier this year so just that doubt whether he would have moved if on a great handicap mark ? 80/1



FRANKLIN D – another lesser pick perhaps and not good enough per rating on trends but is running well and on a career high so could pop in 60/1



Doing win only as 35 runners......


3 point win Portage @ 12/1

3 point win Educate @ 33/1

3 point win Express Himself @ 33/1

2 point win Franklin D @ 60/1

2 point win Examiner @ 80/1

Draw didnt help there.....80/1 place and 12/1 place but win only anyway :(

Not had the breaks on the draw these past big races during the summer so left alone for the jumps but tried the cambridgeshire above where Portage ran a great race from those drawn high to place 5th and Examiner the best of those down the middle to place third as the low drawn horses pinched the other places.  Tough race again here with so many runners and plenty of hard luck stories Im sure.
Taking a broad brush approach.....dismissing these due to trainers having several runners in the past with no success (much prefer a trainer who regularly targets specific races)
Out based on trainer those trained by Pipe, Prescott, Morrison, Fahey, Varian, Moore, Beckett, Williams, Ellison, Balding.....thats half the field gone....

Horses with 8 or more season runs have a very poor record with no wins and only 7 places from almost 120 runners so goodbye - Gavlar, Wordiness, One More Go and Saved by the Bell from those left

So the rest

Heartbreak City - trainer does really well in this and jockey combination do really well. Won well last time coming from way back and finding gaps to win going away. Must have a big chance but slightly dampened by 5 years olds having a really poor record compared to other age groups (1 win in 134 tries.  All ages have won so cant see why this is too much of a worry

Quick Jack - not many win this off the back of a well beaten run and from a pure handicapping perspective I just dont see him on a winnable mark although he always runs really well in these big races with an admirable record

Renneti - many like this but it takes a big step up from form shown so far although obviously from a powerful yard who dont send many to this race. I much prefer horses who have done it in big fields and the biggest field that this one has won was a mere 8 runner race. Also, as mentioned before poor run last time out

Bayan - Such an interesting horse. I was heavily on this when winning the Ladbroke as the trainer had a 100% record with his runners in that race. My big positive is the horse flat rating compared to his hurdles rating. Over jumps he gives Quick Jack a stone, on flat he gets 17lb. Quick JAck is second favourite so this one could easily be thrown in here. The only thing that tempers enthusiasm is that he has had this lowly flat mark before but not delivered

Oriental Fox - a trainer I always get wrong but capable of a big race here and would not be surprised to see this one there at the death for historically a good draw and for a trainer who has won this 3 times before

Noble Silk - better handicapped than most for sure so has a chance but bombed in this last year and came off the bridle quite soon last time out. A few too many negatives maybe

Cassells Rock - another one from the eyecatching Tony Martin yard. Favourite in the trial won by Low Key and showed nothing at all being well beaten. If anyone could have a different horse turn up tomorrow it would be Martin but was beaten such a long way and a race like this plus jockey bookings suggest Heartbreak City is the one

Arty Campbell - decent chance at the weights when compared to Gavlar and Teak and a trainer to be respected in staying handicaps Llewellyn has his first runners in this. Only a reserve though but could be a lively outsider if getting in

Rite to Reign - interesting first runner and not without a chance but not sure running well enough at the moment. Only 2 horses won this being worse than 7th last time out

Grumeti - Alan King sending horses to this is quite eyecatching and they have to be respected. Not much to say on its chances really as much better known in the NH field but trainer alone makes me want to have this onside

Stonecutter - not one that many would look at but I do find this one quite interesting. Hanging right down the bottom and only a reserve I backed at triple figure odds antepost but in essence unlikely to get in. I find it quite interesting that the horse has been put away for so long since being hampered and not getting the run of the race against a Gosden horse who subsequently placed in group company and is rated just over 100.

Big Thunder - not easy to dismiss but never seemed to quite do it on the big field races and 8th last time is a slight negative (albeit borderline !)

Norab - doesnt look to be the best handicapped but alot of AW form so difficult to read

First Mohican - Not sure how good this horse is. Could be badly handicapped, could have more class than shown so far and of interest as with Grumeti as representing the King yard.

My bets

Bayan
Heartbreak City
Grumeti
First Mohican

Stonecutter if gets in

Get in !

Well done !

tidy.

Thanks

Looked very briefly at the two big handicaps in Ireland today (Munster and Ces)
Not many angles really and the Munster seems about right with Shanpallas and Perfect Promise. Horses after a few month lay off have a striking record but Opening Batsman seems to run poorly on seasonal debut runs in big races. Maybe a pointer to the Job is Right so had a small bet at 12/1
In the Irish Ces, 3/4/5 year olds typically dominate so tempted by Whiteout for Mullins at 14/1 but think the likeliest winner could be Sea Pride. Expecting a good showing on this quicker ground and an interesting first runner for Prescott in the Irish version although in the UK one his record is dire....

Been out this afternoon so missed the racing and that didnt go very well... carnage at the 4th destroyed my Munster hopes and Sea Pride could only manage a third as Mullins "second string" busted the age stats angle winning at 8

Hi all, a few today that I like but prices not so good. Decent sized eway on Cold March 215 Ascot for me at 14/1 and win bet 16/1 on here. Venetia loves this race and only 1 unplaced in recent years from a double figure set of runners

16s with a couple of bookies now too

Great day :)

Good call KipperRSA

yes well done.

WP....Not the easiest trainer to predict shall we say.
The horse of VW in the 1-45 warrants a second glance,needs further and might be better left handed,judged on his run from Jan 2015 he remains very well handicapped

Good luck for the season.

Thanks Chaps

A small and speculative bet for me tomorrow in the graduation chase at Kempton tomorrow. Smad Place a deserved favourite but Easter Day looks overpriced to me at 7/1. If fit and ready he could be in the shake up and is bigger than I expected so a small win bet for me, good luck

That didnt go very well....

November handicap...such a tough race to crack this year...open eagle was a huge bet for me last year but this year struggling to find an angle other than potentially well treated horses based on some past form that could be enough to take it if on a going day
My shortlist isnt so short and a few are closely matched but I'm thinking my main bets will be Awake My Soul, Buonarroti, Esteaming. A couple of small bets at fancy prices on Manhattan Swing and Blue Hussar and maybe a covering bet to get stakes back on Green Light. I dont like backing this many especially as the winner could potentially come from anywhere as so open looking but the angles I use have hopefully narrowed me down to the right ones...

yes it is tough.
Argus withdrawn (no 3yo runner)
Lightly raced runners Litigant, Storm Force Ten, Giantstepsahead, plus long break runners Barwick and Villa Royal
Fifteen pattern race runners.........
Might be another statbuster race.

I honestly think any of them could win !

Shame that, Buonarroti 2nd and Esteaming 3rd to a trend busting winner

Murphy hcap chase my main bet tomorrow....had a look at the Nicholls pair and Cogry but think Perfect Candidate the eway bet in this. Must be thereabouts surely ?! Havent had the chance to study in detail the Paddy Power so not much of a bet.  Think Present View, Annacotty and Darna may be value and had a small eway on Cloud Creeper

good luck Kipper... hope your right about Present View...

Cheers, you too IDB

Perfect Candidate 20/1 5th but 4 places a killer but Annacotty saved the day

Greatwood Hurdle - funny race this one, I think Totalise is interesting then the price evaporated, the same with Renneti. I think on form Ebony Express has a shout but cant say Im a fan of the trainer for putting my hard earned down.  I thought Mick Jazz and Dexcite were unexposed but was quite surprised at how short Mick Jazz is.  I'm thinking Totalise, Renneti and Ebony Express are the bets

On a separate note, I rarely listen to information much preferring old fashioned study but had a good word for Unowhatimeanharry 315 Cheltenham. Does look to have a strong chance too and been backed. Dont shoot the messenger....

Well done Kipper - you posted that on two separate threads... took note!

Greatwood wasnt too great with 4th, 5th and 13th....Been taking the 16/1 Tea For Two in the fixed brush which is now 14/1 in a place and under pressure looking at the Betfair market. Was a big race winner for me in the Lanzarote earlier in the year so hoping to repeat the feat here

Becher Chase - Backed Portrait King, the well handicapped Highland Lodge and a saver on No Planning myself.....

Lovely that, so well handicapped imo

Well done

Nice one Kipper

Well done Kipper...

Caspian Caviar - put my thoughts on the other thread but not particularly confident and kept bets small.  Jockey bookings have also weakened confidence with RJ choosing Village Vic and Brendan Powell not exactly an eye catching booking for the King Yard. I was on Annacotty last time and will have a saver but main bets are Champagne West to win and Turn Over Sivola each way at 25/1 with 4 places....I think the PP form is too close to call who wins this time out, thought Little John had to work hard to win off lower mark, wasnt sure Village Vic was good enough, I like Venetia and was on Aachen today but just dont see Tenor Nivernais here, Johns Spirit is on a winnable mark but not seemingly running well, Doctor Phoenix didnt seem good enough but then I started to warm to him more and was close to a bet for me, Mozoltov not the most obvious taking into account age and layoff, Texas Jack I thought was too old and Shantou Magic not running well enough.
Overall I think any of the PP runners could win it so swerving that angle and chanced the two bets mentioned above with a saver on the PP winner.

Good luck

At Doncaster I quite like Night in Milan at 9/1 each way as he rarely runs a bad race when switched back to fences from hurdles

Last weekend didnt go well with jockey bookings leading to fear my bets and research was wrong as Turn Over Sivola had a jockey booked who had 2 rides for the yard in the last 2 years on relatively fancied horses which ran stinkers and R Johnson swerving the debutant Champagne West to ride Village Vic.  Champagne ran well but the jockey was on the right one leading them all a merry dance. Really competitive at Ascot tomorrow and the Ladbroke looks tough but I landed the winner last year and like a couple this year too.  My main bet was ante post on Zarib at 20/1 and 16/1 each way. I really like this horse and think the form is strong for the horses rating as mentioned on the other thread

"Zarib who has excellent form and from another yard that does well in this....Ive backed Zarib at 20/1 and 16/1 due to eyecatching form. Bearing in mind Zarib is off 133 here....First hurdle run he beat Jalingo who has won and placed every start since and is rated 134, followed up by running 3rd beaten 12l in receipt of 3lb to Peace and Co (159) and Karezak (150), then destroyed a poor field, then beaten 6l in the Fred WInter off this mark, then raced at Ascot trying to give 8lb to the good 6l winner Lil Rockerfeller and 13lb to the runner up Sternrubin only a 3 1/2 lengths ahead. Seasonal reappearance was a good third to Irving getting lumps weight admittedly"

My only doubt is that he was as big as 20/1 when I backed him as thought 10/1 was a true price so am I overrating ?

The market is loving Jollys Cracked It but even though he could be much better than shown I just cant seem him as value on what we know. The other I like is Sternrubin who has a likeable profile but in theory shouldnt beat Zarib on these terms.  I'm having much smaller bets on Presenting ARms who seems massive in price from the same stable as Jolly. Finally I'm having a saver on the one who may be exposed but has very solid form and always runs a race in Sort it Out.

My only reservations on this race are that based on trends 4 year olds are only 1 win in 53 runs.....with 5 year olds being the dominant force

Its not that often I back a Venetia horse but my last two bets were Cold March when winning recently (see above for the post) and Aachen when winning last week to help the day recover from a disaster in the Caspian and the Donny race so in the Sodexo I'm on Katenko at decent ante post prices and Houblon Des Obeaux

Disappointed with Zarib but Sternrubin half did the job

Shame the weather has postponed the Welsh National, spent ages on that race too.... Small bet tomorrow for me in the big staying hcap chase at Leopardstown (PP Chase)....taken the 18/1 on Rossvoss and may have a nibble at the 33/1 Perfect Promise

Poor in the Irish race today, struggling on the Irish form this season so time to leave the big handicaps across the water alone I think, sorry anyone who followed me in. Thought Rossvoss needed to improve but thought there may be a stronger showing today

Evening all and happy new year !  I thought the last at Sandown tomorrow would be a puzzle that could be solved but even though trends seem clear cut and in line with the odds, Im less confident the more I look. Trends say a horse aged 6 or younger with 2 or 3 seasonal runs who ran in the last 16-90 days. That leaves the two 13/2 shots See The Rock and Romain De Senam.  Only issue is that these yards arent exactly on fire and Ebony Express is a horse I expect to pop in soon is the 14/1 outsider, then we have Venetia who has won this before with a horse that ran poorly in 2 prep runs similar to Leviathan, horses running well in Cardinal Place and Sirop De Menthe and the top weight with tremendous heavy ground form plus others that cant easily be discounted....tough race....

For me Im thinking 40 win See The Rock and Romain and 20 win Ebony Express but may halve those bets by the morning....

Decided to drop to half the above stakes and have a played on the equivalent chase at Sandown too with Keel Haul and Barakilla at 11/1 and 6/1.  Thought Keel Haul in particular seems overpriced with Barakilla shading the second bet from Pearls Legend

Its a funny old game....stinker from Keel Haul there

Stinkers all round ! Really surprised that Rayvin black won so easily there and Ebony Express so far behind

Welsh National - not enjoying this heavy ground the last few weeks but had researched this race so still playing with small win bets on Return Spring, Firebird Flyer, Tour des Champs and Woodford County. Good luck all

Nov 14, 2015 -- 9:42PM, KipperRSA wrote:

On a separate note, I rarely listen to information much preferring old fashioned study but had a good word for Unowhatimeanharry 315 Cheltenham. Does look to have a strong chance too and been backed. Dont shoot the messenger....

Same source gave me Bally Gilbert 530 Mkt Rasen tomorrow, but price been hammered !  I managed some 7/1 earlier but looking like the word is out and 4/1 now which Im not sure is value ?