Horse Antepost
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Evening all, last year and during this year so far I have targeted certain big races and spent several hours trying to nail the winner. Quite often I back 3 or 4 and tend to split £100 - £150 across the selections. Out of the last 17 races I have played in, I have hit the winner 13 times at some lovely prices :)
I posted a couple of the latter ones here....Violet Dancer who SPd at 50/1 on Betfair (I backed at 42 ante post) and Thunder and Roses today at 30/1
http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30418143/betfair-hurdle---newbury-7th-feb?post_id=543471161#543471161#flvWelcomeHeader
http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30470391/cantlow---irish-grand-national#flvWelcomeHeader
Anyhow, wanted my own thread to keep it simple. Not sure whats next, been looking at the Topham and of course the National but tend to avoid those races tbh
I posted a couple of the latter ones here....Violet Dancer who SPd at 50/1 on Betfair (I backed at 42 ante post) and Thunder and Roses today at 30/1
http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30418143/betfair-hurdle---newbury-7th-feb?post_id=543471161#543471161#flvWelcomeHeader
http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30470391/cantlow---irish-grand-national#flvWelcomeHeader
Anyhow, wanted my own thread to keep it simple. Not sure whats next, been looking at the Topham and of course the National but tend to avoid those races tbh
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good luck - well done on your shortlist with Thunder and roses...
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Think the Scottish National will be my next plan of attack.....Started the analysis and thinking my big 3 are going to be Sego Success, Gallant Oscar, Trustan Times (all around the 16/1 mark atm)
Need to see the 5 day decs before continuing to see what else gets in but does anyone know if this is the aim of the above or are they waiting for Sandown ? |
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Scottish National - Hard race to solve this one.....my approach is complete and Im sticking with the three above Gallant Oscar and Sego Success as my main two bets. Back up bets are Al Co and Trustan Times. If Carrigdhoun gets in I'll have a small bet at massive odds too
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Good luck Kipper
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Disaster on the Scottish National as although I thought Wayward Prince had dropped to a good mark, his win prior to the Scottish National resulted in another hike.
Looked at the Bet365 and cant see much value but my 3 to play are Le Reve, Paint The Clouds and Guess Again. I think Le Reve is a form pick, I think Paint The Clouds is tough to read but will like the ground and Guess Again is one I have been with since falling at Cheltenham when unsighted at the fence but he hasn't been declared. Have a small antepost at just over 40s but think 20s is still fair |
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I ruled out Wayward Prince for the exact same reason Kipper.
Guess Again for me as well, with the outsiders Bally Legend, and Ely Brown as backup. GL |
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Good luck Fabulous, lets hope Guess Again can do the business for us and recoup my lost ante post stakes in the last two races I have bet on him !
These were my thoughts using the last 17 years as a guide Rocky Creek - no horse higher rated than 154 won Bobs Worth - as above (potentially great mark though) Unioniste - as above Wonderful Charm - as above Grand Jesture - a possible The Package - has similar profile to many winners but no 12 yr old winner (albeit from only 10 runners) Le Reve - a possible Bally Legend - possible but good enough ? Vics Canvas - 12 so older than any winner Lost Legend - no graded win / place (but listed if you stretch the rules) Just a Par - a possible Grandads Horse - no graded win / place Royale Knight - a possible but completed national only 2 weeks ago... Ely Brown - a possible Roalco de Farges - a possible but ran in this twice with no luck and higher rated this year Return Spring - no graded win / place Duke of Lucca - a possible Paint the Clouds - a possible Guess Again - no graded form but I do think this horse is due so bending the rules :) Algernon Pazham - no graded form So Grand Jesture - trainers first runner so interesting Le Reve - great form and much better off with Rocky Creek for beating last time Just A Par - Im not convinced with Nicholls record 3 wins from 39 runners Ely Brown - Fell last time out is a strong negative (0/34 with only 1 placed)in this race so dismissed Duke of Lucca - win last time out gives him a squeak but 2 trainer wins from 22 runs doesnt scream targeted at this race Paint The Clouds - tough to read, could be decent, will love the ground, cant ignore Guess Again - I think this horse is due and lost money on the last two ante post markets when didnt run so havent backed him at 40/1 ante post and hes declared - hurrah ! |
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Many rules been swerved to keep Guess Again (lack of graded form or big staying chase form and a faller last time out...) as my main pick so hope its justified !
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struggling to hit the mark since starting this thread with the shortlist having the 1,3,4,5 in it but my bets coming 3,4,5. Two out I had the 1-2-3 and they traded at 1.4 2 2 on Betfair......grrrrr
This thread then -6...... |
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yes but you have picked extremley hard races good luck and an interesting read
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Thanks Dragon, these are the races I thrive in where you can maybe find an angle and get richly rewarded with great odd ie Violet Dancer
Ive looked at the Chester Cup but the draw has killed it I feel somewhat for Duke Of Clarence and Altaayil probably wont get in but will put my analysis up later as others on my shortlist may be worth a bet |
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It wouldnt let me post on here Wednesday morning as I bet on the Chester Cup. Managed to land Trip to Paris and Quick Jack after Duke of Clarence draw (who was my main pic) destroyed his chances. I havent spent much time on the Victoria Cup as there arent many angles but a couple of trainers usually target one for this with decent results so at lovely prices I'm on Bertiewhittle at 33/1 and Baraweez at 33/1
Bertiewhittle in particular is back to a similar mark as when only just beaten in this in 2012 and I'm not sure the way he was tucked in at the back and kept on the rail in his last race was done to get a best placing..... Not sure on jockey booking though ? |
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Decent move on Baraweez, pricewise pick I presume
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"It" would not let you post your late wire for Trip To Paris KippersRUs but it turns up here 50 hours later!
I think I can cheerfully kick you into touch. Don't ring us,we'll ring you. |
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What about the Derby or do you stay over the sticks?
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I see my two Victoria Cup horses are out at Chester 3.00 today. Baraweez was a massive gamble last time and travelled well but didnt seem to pick up when the gap finally came. Bertiewhittle was a non runner. I thought Bertie wasnt given the best race last time out so have backed today at 9/1 with a saver on Baraweez at 10/1
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- 10 ?
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not exactly going well ....... but sticking to the Dash with my antepost two (Confessional and Desert Law) along with Boom The Groom. Trends wise, horses with only 1 or 2 runs under the belt and last time out winners do poorly and that accounts for 12/20 field.....
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Well done especially drawn 1.
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Fair play Kipper - god call. Well done !
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* good
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Did you miss my post at 17.50 ?
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Hunt Cup I'm on next....tough nut to crack though....
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The heritage handicaps at a Royal Ascot are wonderful betting opportunities
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Early days in Hunt Cup analysis and started with the top 2/3 of the card until 5 days decs come through. Im liking the handicap mark of Buckstay (just had 20 on at 36 here which seems big if declared). Shortlist not so short but having a more detailed look at Chil The Kite, American Hope, Baraweez (think this horse has so much ability but gets backed off the boards and gets going too late this season), and then the Stoute pair (Abseil / Munaaser) and the Suroor pair (First Flight / Musaddas)
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Looked at the 500 ascot today and not much of an angle but based on trainers I'm on elishpour eway 5 places at 33/1 and digeanta at 11/1 along with hardstone at 20/1 from jockey booking
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Quite heavily into Baraweez for the Hunt Cup. Brought to the boil nicely for the race and the usual strong pace should suit. Lots and lots of positives for me
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I love baraweez but he's proving expensive so I'm on chill the kite, American hope and munaseer. Ayaar worries me but not sure quite good enough.
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cant believe I went for the wrong Mullins horse in the 5pm..... grrr......elishpour saved the day :)
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Hunt Cup ?
Speculative Bid and Temptress for me. |
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settled on the three above from my shortlist Facts - Chill The Kite, American Hope and Munaaser
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Good luck
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so glad PP payed 6 places there.....American Hope 6th phew
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Temptress - a neck !
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