Grand National cut off

FA, Soll only needs 2 more to come out, as he's the top rated of those on 10-2. I'd agree about Lord Windermere, and he disappeared from a few firms lists last week, suggesting there's some doubts. Connections stated Rubi Light was more likely to go the Topham route, and I seen someone on here suggest there was a doubt around Wyck Hill, though I didn't see any problem on here with him as far as the market was concerned.

As for the rest, most seem as if there's a good chance they're going, though haven't heard anything about the likes of Gas Line Boy, Corrin Wood, or Home Farm. Trainer stated he was going to do tests on Monbeg Dude, to see if any reason for his "no show" at Cheltenham. If it flagged anything up, he wouldn't be going.

Apart from that, I've no doubt one, or maybe 2, will be pick up a knock between now and next Thursday, and I'm sure the weather will rule another couple out.

@Fabulous, thanks very much useful information I had missed that part about the top rated 10-2 horse getting in, sounds like he will make it. Looking at the betting i did assume that it was leading to home farm being pulled out, if Rubi light also goes then Soll is in.

No probs FA, another likely absentee now is Hadrians Approach, having knocked a hind leg joint in his box.

yeah i saw that HA news, I am trying to assess what the real book percentage is on the market, you need to consider all these things which i have learnt to my cost. Soll must be a certainty to get in now.

Merry King out

Nicholls said yesterday he was likely to have 4 not 6 runners.  Sam Winner and Benvolio are likely to miss out.

so Royale Knight likely to get in now i would imagine, how far down all the 10st 2s maybe?

I think the cut off will be in the 10-00 runners.  Can't see it being any lower, but 10 days can be a long time.

Merry King n/r it seems.

yeah announced by Jonjo this morning

Fabulous,
sorry m8 I did'nt know that OR rule.
Take it Soll's last win(upped to 146?)
takes preferance over the other 10-2s
(139s).Would'nt there be a ballot if not?

Sorry for late reply Penzance.

Yeah, Soll would be first off his 146. Think I read somewhere today that the handicappers revised ratings on Monday might change things, but I'd be surprised if there's much change in the OR's of those on 10-02 at the moment, so (I think) it'll be down to a ballot for those horses, but for what it's worth, going on previous years, I reckon all those on 10-02 will make it anyway.

Home Farm confirmed a NR

Could see the cut-off going down to The Package and Broadway Buffalo, only need 5 more by my calc, 4 if Pipe thinks either of these have a better chance than Soll.

Hi guys,
Great info, any chance of the irish pair 55.Guess Again & 56. Goonyella?
Really fancy the later if gets in. Thx

TBH can't see it going past Broadway, if it goes that far. Goonyella wont run unless its soft

Personally Soll will certainly stay in for me, looks to have a decent chance @ the weights, although agree both the package and BB would be interesting runners. Goonyella looks to me will miss out by one or two spots unless there are a couple of unexpected defections

Thanks guys - G/L

Goonyella sidestepping Irish National in the hope of getting in I believe, may be other defections if the ground looks soft.

His handicap mark has gone up after Uttoxeter so next year will get in and that too might do nicely.

And he doesn't need soft ground over this distance to be a contender ......just a cert if it is soft.

Goonyella would have been running of 141 in Fairyhouse, is 136 at Aintree, equates to an 11/12lb pull imo when you adjust the ratings.
However it Soft/heavy in Fairyhouse and good/soft at Aintree and I'm fairly sure Dreaper said after Uttox he wouldn't be running him again unless he got proper soft ground

Hills are 33/1 NRNB I think thats a great bet - if its soft/heavy the price will tumble... and if he doesnt run or ballotted out you get your money back...

if he's withdrawn on the decs day you wouldn't get your money back, only if balloted out

They're NRNB so you'll get your money back either way.

fair point, for other bookies without NRNB

Will Raz de Maree get in?

couple more come out he could
just scrape in.