DR MARWAN KOUKASH - and GABRIEL KAKA 12/1 - LINCOLN

Good to see Fahey and his team think Gabriels Kaka is a horse to follow:

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9775145/richard-fahey-tony-hamilton-robin-oryan-ten-to-follow

I think you're wrong on the ground. They wanted soft ground for him all last year and couldn't get it. Until the Balmoral that is, where he was very unlucky to be on the wrong side. Fahey always maintains he wants soft/heavy ground. Actually Fahey had him in for the Irish Lincoln too this weekend in case it wasn't soft here, and afaik he would have sent him there but for Marwan instructing him to run at Doncaster.
You're right in that he was fancied for this last year but he disappointed. Connections mentioned as much after his Newbury win.

Ground aside he's a good good horse. And he will have been primed again I'm sure, because they have been looking for soft.
In saying all that I think he'll handle it fine.

Hi PJay

If you look at all his wins they have been on Good / Good to Firm... and has lost everytime he has encountered soft in the going...

So Im not really convinced... and if you look at his runs in the Lincoln last year clearly didnt like the ground...

So nothing points towards the horse like softer conditions?

His run after the Lincoln - he won on good ground?


Newbury Result
12 Apr 2014
« 3:30 » Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Cup (Handicap)

    (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m Str Good
    £31,125.00, £9,320.00, £4,660.00, £2,330.00, £1,165.00, £585.00

    RESULT
    RATE RACE

                  HORSE/SP     AGE     WGT     TRAINER/JOCKEY     OR     TS     RPR         
1
11         Gabrial's Kaka (IRE) 8/1C     4     8-12      Richard Fahey     95     *     *     »
    Jamie Spencer

don't know about that,only been placed
once on g/soft.Best form seems to be
on a sounder surface.

You can read the form whatever way you wish. Take on board the trainer's views if you wish.

He'd like soft but he'll go fine here. He's a good good horse.

I understand what your saying...

but dont think ill be doing a rain dance...

You're going to be biased towards your own opinion after selecting him anyway but I'll just add this.

Before the Balmoral last year:
Richard Fahey: "Gabrial's Kaka has been waiting for this heavy ground all year".
Tom Segal: "Gabrial's Kaka has been crying out for soft ground all season".

He ran a blinder in that too.
I'm not arguing his chances on Saturday (they're good), but arguing your opinion that he's "definitely not suited" to soft ground.
I hope he runs well.

cool point taken... PJay...

I am not biased at all - to be fair there is little to suggest that the horse is suited to heavy ground based on form... thats what I tend to go with... if he loses well I can accept it...

But I wouldnt take Toms opinion at all...

As for Fahey - will note that and see when he encounters heavy ground next time... will be interesting...

but in Sporting life... he states

"..Gabrial’s Kaka is in great order. I felt he should have won the Balmoral at Ascot last October when he was drawn on the wrong side. He’s in both Lincolns and we’ll see what happens but I couldn’t be happier with him..."


and it will be interesting to see where he goes Irish Lincoln (softer ground) or Doncaster (good) ...

As I said Fahey had him in both in search of soft ground. But Marwan is after instructing him to run them at Doncaster. He's going to Doncaster.

And I only say you're biased because it's a natural thing. So I won't hold that against you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias

I wouldnt read much into what Fahey says. The fact he is running him at Donny suggests it doesnt really matter what the ground is like, its whether its off or not.
"
Dont get me wrong. I like him as a trainer and I think Gabrials Kaka has a leading chance. I hope it doesnt win as I backed him early doors for the balmoral at 33-1 and had already written the "Jamie Spencer signs off with big handicap win" headline in my mind when the rain came. Sadly the draw scuppered my chance that day.

I think he's priced about right now, given the very good chance of the two that head the market. Wonder who gets the leg up?

Btw, theres a good dump of rain on its way tomorrow morning - poss 8-9mm - which will put soft back in the going description but no more forecast before the race so my guess just now is Good to soft, good in places for saturday.

Like this bit...

Cases when individual is not in control

There are cases where an individual is not always in control of which options are received. People often end up with options that were not chosen but, instead were assigned by others, such as job assignments made by bosses, course instructors assigned by a registrar, or vacation spots selected by other family members.[7] However, being assigned (random or not) to an option leads to a different set of cognitions and memory attributions that tend to favor the alternative (non-received) option and may emphasize regret and disappointment.[8]

...

betilyerded • March 25, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
Btw, theres a good dump of rain on its way tomorrow morning - poss 8-9mm - which will put soft back in the going description but no more forecast before the race so my guess just now is Good to soft, good in places for saturday.

Noticed that. Given my own two selections I'm hoping it's not quite that amount.

yes Berti... read it was unsettled forecast... next few days...

And jockey booking will be interesting... and there is the other Gabriel too will be interesting if that was the flyin the ointment...

Just read this thread, if the going comes up soft, he may love it but if he's drawn badly-he won't win. Never bet ante-post in the Lincoln! The draw is so important.

but if you are lucky to get a low draw - then you will probably have a decent bet ...

Having said that high numbers  have prevailed in a 3/4 years gap... you factor in ground / weight and age...

Well you will have a clearer shortlist by Saturday

Draw last 20 years -

3-3-12-16-1-9-12-16-9-13-23-6-7-1-1-8-23-21-6-11-6

Im keeping my fingers crossed draw tomorrow... hope its low

Gabrials Kaka should be fine whatever the ground. I would disagree that there is no evidence he is suited to heavy ground seeing as his best performance came in heavy ground. Just because his wins came on good doesn't mean they were his best performances or that he doesn't handle soft. He has never won on faster than good as the times on the day of his Pontefract win clearly indicate good ground, not gd/fm as claimed. He has only encountered proper soft ground 4 times, two of those times were over an unsuitable 10 furlongs in Group company, the other two times were the Balmoral (his best run ever) and last years Lincoln where he ran a good race. I don't see how he was clearly not suited by the ground last year? He got a bad ride and was far too prominent and on it from the off, which is way they booked Spencer for his next run and totally changed tactics bringing about the Newbury win. Considering the bad ride he definitely ran well last year and the ground didn't inconvenience him. 3 of the 1st 4 home last year had been to Meydan and had a big fitness edge and the one to split them was Tulius whose yard was well forward and he also went on to hack up in a Group 2 next time and was close up in a few Group 1's also. Point being that considering he wasn't race fit and got a bad ride he ran well last year only fading late on for 6th. He will be fine whatever the ground but they will certainly be hoping it rains as that will help his chance.

Buckstay, Belgian Bill, Gabrials Kaka, Ocean Tempest, Hillbilly Boy and the 3 at the head of the market all have chances. Tough race.

Kaka also by Jeremy, most of which need give.

Even when he won the Spring Cup at Newbury the ground was certainly not good as evidenced by the times with even Kingman over 4 seconds above standard when bolting up in the Greenham over 7f. Times throughout the day indicated gd/sft ground. Also, the apparent soft ground for last years Lincoln meeting was probably more gd/sft from the time figures. You need to go by the clock rather than official going descriptions.

Actually the ground was more like soft when he won at Newbury, it was probably just as soft as it had been at Doncaster for the Lincoln.

Talking sense gamerawins.

Local weather station recorded a rainfall of 2.2mm this morning and the forecast gives no more before Saturday.

Interesting about the ground... but for me its far from conclusive... Yes... Balmoral was a good run but was 6 lengths back...

Also talking about the Balmoral... Bronze Angel - would you assess that horse as showing his best at heavy or good ground? My point is if we had the same dicussion on Bronze Angel at the time ... based on his runs you would argue wouldnt go on the ground... but he did - okay maybe given soft lead - draw bias etc... but sometimes its difficult to assess a horse as they can prove us all wrong...

But in terms of Gabriels Kaka you compare that to the race he won at Newbury was much faster (albeit the ground) you cannot say its conclusive until he has a few more runs on heavy ground to get a more balanced view as to whether horse does need a lot more give in the ground to show his best... based on the Balmoral running there is definately potential...

But he is a year older... and think there is more improvement to come ... and definately a horse to follow this season...

No matter what the ground is (well along as there is some give)...

Anyway, Jack Garrity(5) on board for Saturday ... Tony Hamilton on the other Gabriel...

He was 6 lengths back in the Balmoral but again you need to read a bit more into it than that.

I think you're going to fight your corner no matter what the argument Iris. Nobody is arguing his chances Saturday or that he should improve this year. Your form reading that he is definitely not suited to soft ground is the only argument. And I'm pretty sure you're wrong on that.

FWIW I think you've come to one of the right horses, albeit in the wrong way.

Jack Garritty is a great booking btw. Plenty of winners for his 5lb claim.

No Pjay...  im actually im not fighting my corner...im trying to be objective...

Just saying its not conclusive that he shows his best with heavy/soft ground ... by just looking at the form...

Just need few more runs on soft or heavy to be convinced.

But no big deal to be wrong on this...

Drawn 22!

Thats not great at all... next to GM Hopkins ...

we will know on raceday which side to be on... in the Spring Mile beforehand...

Racing post:

Koukash thrilled with Kaka’s draw in Lincoln


MARWAN KOUKASH has high hopes of adding to his big handicap haul with a second Lincoln after the owner woke up on Thursday to what he described as "a dream draw" for his two runners Gabrial's Kaka and Gabrial in Saturday's Betway-sponsored showpiece.


Punters agree, as Gabrial's Kaka, drawn against the stands' rail in stall 22, was cut to a general 10-1 from 12-1, although he is as low as 8-1 with some firms behind the drifting best-priced 11-2 favourite Mange All, who drew stall seven.

Told about the price move for his Richard Fahey-trained five-year-old, Koukash said: "It is justifiable - Richard is very happy with him as he has been doing well at home and Jack Garritty is claiming 5lb.

"I expect him to be there or thereabouts as it was nice to wake up this morning and find dream draws for him in 22 and Gabrial in 15. Gabrial is very well handicapped as a horse who is capable of running to 110 and is off 100 on Saturday on a track and ground that will help him.

"The plan is going well and I just hope they get luck in running, as you need it in these handicaps."

Fahey:

"We’re very happy with Gabrial’s Kaka and the more rain the better for him. He doesn’t need soft ground – but he just copes with it much better than most horses. He is shaping well at home and giving me all the right signs.

He’s drawn 22 and I nearly won the race from over there a couple of years ago. There’s pace around us which is encouraging and while I’d have liked to have been a little closer to the middle, I’m not overly concerned."

yes agree - PJay... well they have had rain - so there will be some give... so we just have to hope he gets a good run...

I must admit Im a bit concerned with the draw... I generally prefer low with the Lincoln...

Baked him eachway too with the firms going 5 places.

Inreresting to see the other GABRIEL backed today - last seasonn spent winter in Dubai but skipped that this year (he did run some good races last year in Meydan) - so will be fitter this season - reading Fahey comments this week he thinks on good ground nothing between the GABRIELs, but clearly they thought he was on a good mark and open to improvement...

Interesting to hear Fahey on the Morning Line re last year's Lincoln. There was a difference of opinion (himself and Marwan no doubt) on how he should be ridden. Fahey wanted him dropped in, Marwan wanted him handy. He ran handy and hence didn't get home.

And re Gabrial (in case you missed it Iris): Marwan wanted to try him over further last year but Fahey didn't think he'd get it. Back to 8f at Leicester, Fahey told the jockey he was a certainty. Lincoln has been the plan.

you are the daddy IDB, well played again.

Started the week dithering on which one of The Gabriels, so backed both (as wasnt sure Kaka would go Irish Lincoln) then I thought id lay my cards on one... and it was Kaka all the way ... a relief he had two horses... Think Fahey hinted it this morning... it was a good thing really ... and if you watch the race jockey had loads of horse on Gabriel, that horse manouvered to get a better position - great riding there...

But Pjay you definately gave me a lesson on Gabriel Kaka... you were a lot sharper on this than I was (think Gabriel was on your shortlist all along :))... Kaka ran no sort of race - disappointing will follow him with the ground... but well done Pjay... hope you were on Gabriel (off course you were!)

and well done Marwan Koukash - see you at Chester...

No mine got caught in the wind I'm afraid. Gabrial had a lovely position all tucked up in behind and that's where you needed to be. Marwan's messing about at longer distances last year had him well handicapped.

I'm sure we'll see Gabrial's Kaka in all the big Ascot races over the summer and we'll see a better side of him. Will be interesting to see what mark he's on come Balmoral time again (should he qualify, I'm sure he will).

Thread all about one hoss but after times the winner, walos.

thread actually was about Marwan Koukash... and I ruined it by picking out the one horse ..

Ill remember next time not to be adventurous.

dr koukash
born in palestine
spent 3 days in the desert walking to jordan
moved to the uk, liverpool, to study
set up a business
made a fortune
One wouldnt want to labor a point, but were various right wing politicians to have their way...

I bet Koukash is a nightmare to train for, always thinks he knows best.

well its quite evident Fahey knows slightly more he is good and consistent trainer for the Lincoln, think he has now been placed in 5 of the 6 lincolns so far... including 2 wins...

thats a good record to have...

Not for the first time Saddo.

IrisDeBalme    28 Mar 15 21:53 
thread actually was about Marwan Koukash... and I ruined it by picking out the one horse ..


Aye, you did pick out one horse, but lo and behold after the race you've backed the winner, rofl.

Good thread again IDB, could have been a proper payout for you, but hope Gabrial was some compensation. I;m sure you'll handle it after your recent winners.

Hey Saddo... would you have backed both if you had one of Koukashes horses?

Not aftertiming... dont need that attention...

Horse racing is challenging... and these things happen...

You start antepost beginning of the week its not until the day of the race you get a bit more info... Fahey hinted it was a good bet... sometimes... you cover... happens a lot Saturday RP  is vital... especially trainers comments... which trainers would come out earlier with it...


Happened a few times...

Maybe I shouldnt have said I covered - so take your point there... in future wont do that,

Nowt wrong with saying you have covered, but do it before the race. GL.

Mar 28, 2015 -- 11:07PM, sintonian wrote:

I bet Koukash is a nightmare to train for, always thinks he knows best.

A pain I'd say, but he has good horses and money to splash around so I'm sure Fahey is happy to keep him on side. Marwan has already nominated the next race for Gabrial.
With the ground at the Curragh gone heavy, I'm sure Fahey will remind Marwan that he could be on for the Lincoln double today if he had sent Kaka to Ireland as Fahey intended.

Kaka is by Jeremy, they are dodgy. Only one proper horse in Our Conor and the rest were disappointing really. I wouldn't say the ground had much of anything to do with Kaka's poor run. He is a funny yoke and I would advise staying away from him. 2/cent

GL to all.

I wouldn't knock him yet. I'm sure he'll be seen to better effect during the year.

Maybe but I wouldn't rely on him.

In saying that, after lumping on him at 33/1 the day before he came up the wrong side in the Balmoral I fear he could be one of 'those' horses for me.