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A few weeks way, but having a good look right now I always find is a good way of getting over those festival blues. I enjoyed the Chelt hcp thread so it would be good to hear other peoples thoughts on the big one as we get closer. Here's some of mine:
Top Weight
The only one I know who intends to run from those top of the card is Unioniste, in which case he could be topweight; if he was he'd be the first horse I'd strike from my list. A 7yo carrying 11.10 winning the GN? Would be an immense feat. It would also mean the weights going up 4lbs.
Saying that, there must be a chance Lord Windemere and/or Boston Bob might run, given they won't be winning any graded races in the near future, so Unioniste might have a lesser weight (can see Bowen on him also).
Bottom Weight
After counting the likely runners my hunch is the bottom weight will be somewhere between Renard and Guess Again. It would be good to see a bottom weight carrying the minimum, as it gives a good shape to the handicap. None of this annoying compressed stuff.
Some entries that are catching my eye atm.
First Lieutenant 40/1
Missed chelt for the first time to be aimed at the race, good ground was always necessary for him to be at his best so chance he will get it and he likes it round Aintree. Hcp mark slipping quite significantly over the past year. One of three entries for the owners, and it will be interesting to see who rides with Cooper being banned. I fancy he could take to this.
Rockey Creek 12/1
Runs off a mark of 154, 2lb lower than last year where he finished 5th; and appears to be well in given his new mark after his impressive run lto. He's a big player again and priced accordingly.
Carlito Brigante 66/1
I've seen him run his last two races at Kelso, and back in October he was very impressive winning a hcp over 3m2f carrying top weight, he wasn't stopping either. Never known as a stayer when he was with Elliot, but he seems weirdly progressive again in this new role. Small trainer doing well and has stated GN is the aim. His run lto was a solid prep, incedently in a race where both Ballabriggs and Auroras Encore ran in before their Aintree wins.
Good ground is essential, and he has run well at the course. The negative is no form over the fences, but when he won back in October he led from the front and dictated things, and I can see him getting into a nice rhythm up front if he takes to them. I really like his chances and have had a wee bet, he's been seriously underestimated by the layers.
Al Co 40/1
Last seasons Scottish National winner, this has been his aim all season and runs off only 5lb higher than his Ayr win. Has experience of the track but none over the fences, saying that he has plenty going for him, including the trainer who does well at Aintree and has been a bit unlucky in this over the years. He's another whose price is too big.
Godsmejudge 25/1
Another previous Scottish national winner, and gets in off a mark of 145, another whose been aimed specifically at this, so this seasons from can be ignored and trainer can get him ready. I'd say his price is about right.
Chnce Du Roy 40/1
6th last year and runs off 2lb lower, and after last year trainer has aimed him at this, seems to love the course and will run another big race.
Alvarado 33/1
He's a big fancy of mine, he did really well in the race last year and came from 10th place jumping the last fence to finish 4th, so had plenty left in the tank. After seeing that I'm sure the trainer decided there and then to come back for another go, indeed we haven't seen Alvarado take in any of his usual Cheltenham hcps this season. He had a nice enough prep last time out.
We know he handles the course, perfect age and only a pound higher in the weights, he will run a big race and Moloney will have him closer to the pace this year now that he knows he stays. Excellent Price.
Top Weight
The only one I know who intends to run from those top of the card is Unioniste, in which case he could be topweight; if he was he'd be the first horse I'd strike from my list. A 7yo carrying 11.10 winning the GN? Would be an immense feat. It would also mean the weights going up 4lbs.
Saying that, there must be a chance Lord Windemere and/or Boston Bob might run, given they won't be winning any graded races in the near future, so Unioniste might have a lesser weight (can see Bowen on him also).
Bottom Weight
After counting the likely runners my hunch is the bottom weight will be somewhere between Renard and Guess Again. It would be good to see a bottom weight carrying the minimum, as it gives a good shape to the handicap. None of this annoying compressed stuff.
Some entries that are catching my eye atm.
First Lieutenant 40/1
Missed chelt for the first time to be aimed at the race, good ground was always necessary for him to be at his best so chance he will get it and he likes it round Aintree. Hcp mark slipping quite significantly over the past year. One of three entries for the owners, and it will be interesting to see who rides with Cooper being banned. I fancy he could take to this.
Rockey Creek 12/1
Runs off a mark of 154, 2lb lower than last year where he finished 5th; and appears to be well in given his new mark after his impressive run lto. He's a big player again and priced accordingly.
Carlito Brigante 66/1
I've seen him run his last two races at Kelso, and back in October he was very impressive winning a hcp over 3m2f carrying top weight, he wasn't stopping either. Never known as a stayer when he was with Elliot, but he seems weirdly progressive again in this new role. Small trainer doing well and has stated GN is the aim. His run lto was a solid prep, incedently in a race where both Ballabriggs and Auroras Encore ran in before their Aintree wins.
Good ground is essential, and he has run well at the course. The negative is no form over the fences, but when he won back in October he led from the front and dictated things, and I can see him getting into a nice rhythm up front if he takes to them. I really like his chances and have had a wee bet, he's been seriously underestimated by the layers.
Al Co 40/1
Last seasons Scottish National winner, this has been his aim all season and runs off only 5lb higher than his Ayr win. Has experience of the track but none over the fences, saying that he has plenty going for him, including the trainer who does well at Aintree and has been a bit unlucky in this over the years. He's another whose price is too big.
Godsmejudge 25/1
Another previous Scottish national winner, and gets in off a mark of 145, another whose been aimed specifically at this, so this seasons from can be ignored and trainer can get him ready. I'd say his price is about right.
Chnce Du Roy 40/1
6th last year and runs off 2lb lower, and after last year trainer has aimed him at this, seems to love the course and will run another big race.
Alvarado 33/1
He's a big fancy of mine, he did really well in the race last year and came from 10th place jumping the last fence to finish 4th, so had plenty left in the tank. After seeing that I'm sure the trainer decided there and then to come back for another go, indeed we haven't seen Alvarado take in any of his usual Cheltenham hcps this season. He had a nice enough prep last time out.
We know he handles the course, perfect age and only a pound higher in the weights, he will run a big race and Moloney will have him closer to the pace this year now that he knows he stays. Excellent Price.
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Steamship, Royal Athlete fell in Void National, and Rough Quest fell in The Topham.
What I look for is
at least placed in another national
aged 9-11
jockey not won it before
Any Aintree form
To be honest though this year like the last few I have no view on the race and I will probably just throw £50 at it on the day on here
at least placed in another national
aged 9-11
jockey not won it before
Any Aintree form
To be honest though this year like the last few I have no view on the race and I will probably just throw £50 at it on the day on here
I think the placed in some kind of National(class 2 over 3 mile) is the best way to find the winner.
Which would give us what shortlist for this years renewal ?
I feel that one must have in mind that they are now "spruce hurdles"
It's still ran over 4m3 at a faster pace if the fences are easier,so stamina is even more important
which is why I think last years winner has a big chance again
If right Teaforthree must have a big shout off 10-7. Right there at the last in last years Gold Cup. Excellent jumper despite last year's fall where it was felt he had already injured himself. Placed in the previous national.......the 33's available is very big IMO
I would be all over Teaforthree but I can't get over that last run, I was waiting to see if it ran again last week but they pulled it out of races last Thursday and Friday. He's very well handicapped based on previous years but I get the impression the horse isn't in great order. I had a small e/w a few weeks ago but I won't be topping up
Ran him back too quickly last time to get qualified for the Foxhunters.... could forgive that run. Was due to work after racing at Ffos Las today but skipped it because of the bad ground there. Trainer happy with him though and looks like Townend may ride.
T43 out..pity......more study required for another selection
Been lashing down up here for a good few days, and plenty of rain forecast for the next 7 days. Soft ground meeting looking favourite I would say.
should be perfect for Godsmejudge , good to soft would be perfect but can handle the soft . You could cross off at least 30 of the 40 runners if ground is on soft side .
I'm not being critical but why would a jockey having not won it before be a positive? One of the weakest trends/stats I've seen that. Has no logic.
Imagine seeing a horse you thought had the ideal profile for the race and then not backing him because BJG, Ruby or AP were on and they had won the race before.
---
Soft ground would certainly bring a different (less open) look to the race.
On good / good to soft I can't see past Rocky Creek, as boring as it is.
Imagine seeing a horse you thought had the ideal profile for the race and then not backing him because BJG, Ruby or AP were on and they had won the race before.
---
Soft ground would certainly bring a different (less open) look to the race.
On good / good to soft I can't see past Rocky Creek, as boring as it is.
No opinion either way on it, but just for info.........7 times in last 25 years, it's been won by jockey having first ride in the race.
Benjy I did not say that not backing jockeys that have won it before was a positive but I try to avoid them. Since I have been betting 1985 Miinnehoma, Earth Summit and Hedgehunter were ridden by previous winners. Last year there were 4 qualifiers and the biggest price was 20-1 easy way of ruling out fancied horses.
So by my reckoning I will be ruling out the rides of
L Aspell- Many Clouds
D Jacob- Pineau De Rei
A McCoy- Shutthefrontdoor
L Treadwell
R Power
N Madden
R Walsh- Ballycasey
P Carberry
I have not had a big bet on the race for a few years now
So by my reckoning I will be ruling out the rides of
L Aspell- Many Clouds
D Jacob- Pineau De Rei
A McCoy- Shutthefrontdoor
L Treadwell
R Power
N Madden
R Walsh- Ballycasey
P Carberry
I have not had a big bet on the race for a few years now
Steamship that is an absolutely ridiculous trend to follow.
Have you any logical reason as to why this rule should be used?
Have you any logical reason as to why this rule should be used?
7/25 is surely not a good stat.
18/25 is a better one for jockey's who have raced in it before.
I don't get it?
18/25 is a better one for jockey's who have raced in it before.
I don't get it?
Is it anymore ridiculous than the old ones of grey horses, French bred, not over 11st 1lb, no more than 4 runs a season, not won more than once in a season. Taken as one example any trend can look silly.
28 Qualifiers in 5 years 200 runners no winner 14% of the runners discounted. At a time when French breds have started winning it and horses carrying more than 11st 1lb have won it.
I know it's a silly trend but I like it.
28 Qualifiers in 5 years 200 runners no winner 14% of the runners discounted. At a time when French breds have started winning it and horses carrying more than 11st 1lb have won it.
I know it's a silly trend but I like it.
The French bred thing was ridiculous too. People naturally look for trends but there just has to be some logic behind them.
The last 3 winners have been 11, 7 of the last 8 winners had more than one word in their name, all of the last 10 winners had a vowel as the second letter in their name!
The last 3 winners have been 11, 7 of the last 8 winners had more than one word in their name, all of the last 10 winners had a vowel as the second letter in their name!
Some corkers on the OLBG sister site.
All trends mad but **** out selecting every horse by all manner of silly stats.
Someone was ruling out GMJ because he had never won at 2 and a half mile.I thought a bit harsh considering he has never ran in a 2 an half mile chase.
All trends mad but **** out selecting every horse by all manner of silly stats.
Someone was ruling out GMJ because he had never won at 2 and a half mile.I thought a bit harsh considering he has never ran in a 2 an half mile chase.
There is a trend that has produced 14 winners in 34 runnings but still has 23 of this years entries
Mar 29, 2015 -- 11:42PM, Steamship wrote:
Is it anymore ridiculous than the old ones of grey horses, French bred, not over 11st 1lb, no more than 4 runs a season, not won more than once in a season. Taken as one example any trend can look silly.28 Qualifiers in 5 years 200 runners no winner 14% of the runners discounted. At a time when French breds have started winning it and horses carrying more than 11st 1lb have won it.I know it's a silly trend but I like it.
Strange stats to choose here...
A grey trend would be stupid.
A french bred trend is stupid. Although with an age related angle may just about be viable...
Not over 11st 1lb suggests carrying a big weight over 4 and a half miles isn't easy - makes sense.
No more than 4 runs suggests the horse is still fresh - makes sense.
Not winning more than one race in the season, keeps on the right side of the handicapper and again makes sense.
------
As PJay said a trend must have some logic in order to be applied.
If a horse I fancied for the National could have any rider on I would definitely be picking one who had won the race previously. If I could paint him grey I probably wouldn't bother...
Just for you Benjy
Pineau De Re 8 runs
Auroras Encore 7 runs
Neptune Collonges 11st 5lb
Ballabriggs 2 wins that season
Don't Push It 11st 5lb
Yep the three trends that you say make sense to avoid horses in the race have given you the winner the last 5 years. I look forward to your selections this year. I backed 3 of those winners.
Do me a favour Benjy when you try and make me look stupid with something that I have already admitted is silly, do your homework first.
Pineau De Re 8 runs
Auroras Encore 7 runs
Neptune Collonges 11st 5lb
Ballabriggs 2 wins that season
Don't Push It 11st 5lb
Yep the three trends that you say make sense to avoid horses in the race have given you the winner the last 5 years. I look forward to your selections this year. I backed 3 of those winners.
Do me a favour Benjy when you try and make me look stupid with something that I have already admitted is silly, do your homework first.
PJay the French bred stat looks silly now because so many of our good horses are French bred but Mon Mome was the first one for 100 years. In that time I backed Mely Moss in 2000 who was 2nd and it was his first run of the season.
The grey horse stat took 50 years to be broken.
The grey horse stat took 50 years to be broken.
Merry King mentioned by no one but is obviously sticking out a mile at the weights and at the prices.
As for a French bred trend: I wouldn't say it is stupid to go by breeding, as breeding is in fact of paramount importance in the National. By far and away the biggest National trend in recent years has been a breeding trend.
As for a French bred trend: I wouldn't say it is stupid to go by breeding, as breeding is in fact of paramount importance in the National. By far and away the biggest National trend in recent years has been a breeding trend.
Nice after timing there Steamship 
I backed all 5 mate 
I didn't see they were trends I followed or intend to follow at any point. I was simply justifying why they may exist and the logic behind them. This is clearly lost on you so I won't waste my time any longer.
Keep picking horses based on their colour, the colour of the jockey's silks and the letters in the name. GL to you pal.
I backed all 5 mate I didn't see they were trends I followed or intend to follow at any point. I was simply justifying why they may exist and the logic behind them. This is clearly lost on you so I won't waste my time any longer.
Keep picking horses based on their colour, the colour of the jockey's silks and the letters in the name. GL to you pal.
I will follow your extremely adventurous tip this year then Benjy, what was it? Oh yes the 2nd favourite which you can't see past if it's good/good to soft.
the weight trend is probably better looked at in relation to bottom weight, rather than 11st 1lb and less. There have been a few winners carrying over 11st 1lb lately, but if you look at it as horses within 14lbs of bottom weight then Neptune Collonges is the only horse to break this trend in a very long time. This year it looks like between 10st and 10st 2lbs will be bottom weight, that doesn't rule out many runners but certainly one or two at the top of the market
Has AP chosen the fav today? Shortened across the board...
With the rain we have had today and looking at the forecast then heavy ground looks a good possibility in which case I think wyck hill is a huge price to win. Loves heavy ground, will stay all day and has experience of the fences when staying on over 3m 2f.
Must have been tempted by Cause of Causes after Chelts facts.
Wyck Hill at 130 on here seems a ridiculous price on here as Bridgewater confirmed he was on target for the race yesterday. It stays all day, will run off bottom weight and the going looks like being soft enough to make it a slog. Im on.
The other I have backed at 70 plus on here is Across the Bay, running well when taken out of the race by a loose horse last year, this is its sole target.
The other I have backed at 70 plus on here is Across the Bay, running well when taken out of the race by a loose horse last year, this is its sole target.
Wyck Hill at 130 on here seems a ridiculous price on here as Bridgewater confirmed he was on target for the race yesterday. It stays all day, will run off bottom weight and the going looks like being soft enough to make it a slog. Im on.
The other I have backed at 70 plus on here is Across the Bay, running well when taken out of the race by a loose horse last year, this is its sole target.
The other I have backed at 70 plus on here is Across the Bay, running well when taken out of the race by a loose horse last year, this is its sole target.
Yeah Barstool ... I backed Across the Bay last year... was well gutted when he was taken out was going really really well...
I might back him again only based on last seasons run... at 66s Korals worth a tiny bet...
I might back him again only based on last seasons run... at 66s Korals worth a tiny bet...
backed 2 so far Across The Bay
and The Rainbow Hunter.
If Pete The Bloke is looking
in,Quick Question-can you now
offset lays in this race.
cheers.
and The Rainbow Hunter.
If Pete The Bloke is looking
in,Quick Question-can you now
offset lays in this race.
cheers.
Nina Carberry will take another shot at becoming the first female jockey to win the Grand National a week on Saturday when she climbs aboard First Lieutenant. The horse’s trainer, Mouse Morris, confirmed on Tuesday that he had booked the Irish amateur jockey to replace Bryan Cooper, suspended for breaches of the whip rules during the Cheltenham Festival.
Morris acknowledged that Carberry has not ridden First Lieutenant in a race. “But she’s ridden him at home,” he said and added that the pair had schooled well together over a National-style fence in recent days.
First Lieutenant is a general 33-1 shot for the Aintree race on 11 April, having seemed to lose his form this winter. “He’s had some tough races and he’s getting on a bit,” Morris agreed, but the Grand National has had a reviving effect on some horses with that profile over the years.
“He’s got as good a chance as any,” the trainer continued. “I was fourth in it one year [with Lastofthebrownies in 1989] and he’d have a better chance than that one. He’s got a bit of class but you also need a bit of luck.”
First Lieutenant was a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles in 2011 and won the Betfred Bowl at Aintree a couple of years ago. The National will be his first chance in a handicap since he was third in a high-class version of the Hennessy behind Bobs Worth and Tidal Bay in 2012.
The 30-year-old Carberry has had four rides in the National, completing the course three times and finishing seventh on Character Building in 2010. Her sister-in-law Katie Walsh achieved the best placing by a woman in the race when third on Seabass in 2012.
Jonjo O’Neill’s only runner in this year’s race will be the favourite, Shutthefrontdoor, following the news that his Merry King has developed a breathing problem which will put him out of action until the autumn. Meanwhile, Nicky Henderson said Hadrian’s Approach was a doubtful runner after banging a joint.
Home Farm is another National entrant who now seems unlikely to line up. “I’ve got to talk to the owners but I’m 95% sure he won’t run,” said his Waterford-based trainer, Henry De Bromhead. “He’s only eight. We might be over for next year but I think we’ll keep him for Punchestown this time.”
But there will be some depth to the Irish challenge for this year’s race, as Portrait King and Owega Star were both confirmed as intended runners by their trainers.
The news about Merry King and Home Farm means that Court By Surprise should now make the cut for the Grand National and become a first runner in the race for his trainer, Emma Lavelle. Meanwhile all the horses set to carry 10st 2lb are currently just outside the safety limit of 40 runners and connections must hope for further withdrawals at the next entry stage on Monday.
Among those fretting over such matters is the Cumbrian-based Dianne Sayer, whose Baileys Concerto is among those on 10st 2lb. “Brian Hughes schooled him over the National-style fences at Malton this morning,” Sayer said.
“I think we caught the worst weather of the winter – we had wind, hail and rain – but the schooling itself went well. It’s another step on the road towards the Grand National and we are very happy with him.
“He had a bit of heat and swelling in his leg when he came back from the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster, which I was initially very concerned about but it was just him over-reacting as usual.
“We lost a bit of time because of that and there was a suspicion when we ran him at Kelso that he wasn’t quite right but it would have meant a long break between Doncaster and Aintree. I wasn’t overly disappointed with that run and it will have hopefully helped us.
“If he doesn’t get in, then we will give the Topham Chase a go instead.”
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/mar/31/grand-national-2015-nina-carberry-first-lieutenant-first-female-mouse-morris
Morris acknowledged that Carberry has not ridden First Lieutenant in a race. “But she’s ridden him at home,” he said and added that the pair had schooled well together over a National-style fence in recent days.
First Lieutenant is a general 33-1 shot for the Aintree race on 11 April, having seemed to lose his form this winter. “He’s had some tough races and he’s getting on a bit,” Morris agreed, but the Grand National has had a reviving effect on some horses with that profile over the years.
“He’s got as good a chance as any,” the trainer continued. “I was fourth in it one year [with Lastofthebrownies in 1989] and he’d have a better chance than that one. He’s got a bit of class but you also need a bit of luck.”
First Lieutenant was a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles in 2011 and won the Betfred Bowl at Aintree a couple of years ago. The National will be his first chance in a handicap since he was third in a high-class version of the Hennessy behind Bobs Worth and Tidal Bay in 2012.
The 30-year-old Carberry has had four rides in the National, completing the course three times and finishing seventh on Character Building in 2010. Her sister-in-law Katie Walsh achieved the best placing by a woman in the race when third on Seabass in 2012.
Jonjo O’Neill’s only runner in this year’s race will be the favourite, Shutthefrontdoor, following the news that his Merry King has developed a breathing problem which will put him out of action until the autumn. Meanwhile, Nicky Henderson said Hadrian’s Approach was a doubtful runner after banging a joint.
Home Farm is another National entrant who now seems unlikely to line up. “I’ve got to talk to the owners but I’m 95% sure he won’t run,” said his Waterford-based trainer, Henry De Bromhead. “He’s only eight. We might be over for next year but I think we’ll keep him for Punchestown this time.”
But there will be some depth to the Irish challenge for this year’s race, as Portrait King and Owega Star were both confirmed as intended runners by their trainers.
The news about Merry King and Home Farm means that Court By Surprise should now make the cut for the Grand National and become a first runner in the race for his trainer, Emma Lavelle. Meanwhile all the horses set to carry 10st 2lb are currently just outside the safety limit of 40 runners and connections must hope for further withdrawals at the next entry stage on Monday.
Among those fretting over such matters is the Cumbrian-based Dianne Sayer, whose Baileys Concerto is among those on 10st 2lb. “Brian Hughes schooled him over the National-style fences at Malton this morning,” Sayer said.
“I think we caught the worst weather of the winter – we had wind, hail and rain – but the schooling itself went well. It’s another step on the road towards the Grand National and we are very happy with him.
“He had a bit of heat and swelling in his leg when he came back from the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster, which I was initially very concerned about but it was just him over-reacting as usual.
“We lost a bit of time because of that and there was a suspicion when we ran him at Kelso that he wasn’t quite right but it would have meant a long break between Doncaster and Aintree. I wasn’t overly disappointed with that run and it will have hopefully helped us.
“If he doesn’t get in, then we will give the Topham Chase a go instead.”
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/mar/31/grand-national-2015-nina-carberry-first-lieutenant-first-female-mouse-morris
Can't believe they are running Lord Windermere, his Gold Cup run was woeful there was surely something amiss.
Clueless trainer,maybe just keep weight down for Spring Heeled imo.
very interested to see who will now ride Al Co , has a good a chance as any - high class stayer
Sam Waley- Cohen would be good choice if he was available
Sam Waley- Cohen would be good choice if he was available
Raz de Maree swerves the Irish National, an interesting runner if it gets in
Praying that Raz De Maree will scrape in. Will love the distance and soft ground and on at 50's. Hopefully the trainer feels that there will be enough withdrawals and hence the Irish National withdrawal?
...Or just clutching at straws
...Or just clutching at straws
>Can't believe they are running Lord Windermere, his Gold Cup run was woeful there was surely something amiss.
Clearly it's all Davy Russel's fault!
Clearly it's all Davy Russel's fault!
I backed RDM last year; he was way behind very early as they go too fast for him on good ground, but he stayed the trip really well and ended up 8th. He needs genuinely soft ground to stand any chance in this, if he sneaked in I'd be interested if he got his conditions. A couple of pounds lower and he was visored last year, so I'd expect to see them on again.
just had a look at the weather forecast, not a drop of rain between now and next weekend, and warm too. It'll be the soft side of good (probably watered), just the way they want it. Not great for Raz de Maree though
How does Jim Culloty make it pay when he hasn't had a winner for a year?
Don`t like backing horses that have run at Cheltenham festival or horses aged less than 9 years old. Leaves me with and in no particular order,Rocky Creek,Balthazar King,Night in Milan,Oscar Time,Chance Du Roy,Alvarado and Across the Bay.
Oscar Time is a bit ancient so will probably leave out. Leaves six to pick from or six to back.
Oscar Time is a bit ancient so will probably leave out. Leaves six to pick from or six to back.
Forget Across The Bay , running from the front for one circuit before being taken out is very visual but irrelevant.
Not a cat in hells chance ....hope that helps .
Not a cat in hells chance ....hope that helps .
Perhaps so but of all those returning he gets the most weight from Pineau.
Across The Bay ran at Cheltenham, he was brought down in the race won by The Package.
I think he has a chance.
I think he has a chance.
Overlooked the fact that he ran and got brought down at Cheltenham but can`t change my mind now re horses that ran at Cheltenham.
my scatter gun has already fired
oscar time 50,s
alvarado 40,s
night in milan 50,s
chance de roy 40,s,
rocky and bal king a bit short for me so might add across the bay and hope your trends and my scatter gun approach alighn,
oscar time 50,s
alvarado 40,s
night in milan 50,s
chance de roy 40,s,
rocky and bal king a bit short for me so might add across the bay and hope your trends and my scatter gun approach alighn,
I'm on
Alvarado 40's
Cause of Causes 33's
Soll 66's
Ely Brown 100 and 200's
Also The Package at 66's if he gets in. If he doesn't may back on more. Maybe Mon Parrain or Raz de Maree once see final field.
Alvarado 40's
Cause of Causes 33's
Soll 66's
Ely Brown 100 and 200's
Also The Package at 66's if he gets in. If he doesn't may back on more. Maybe Mon Parrain or Raz de Maree once see final field.
ALVARADO, a staying-on fourth in the Crabbies Grand National last season, bids for Aintree glory again in the £1m race on Saturday, writes Danny Hall.
The chestnut with the distinctive white blaze, has been prepared specially for the race by his Fossebridge-based trainer Fergal O’Brien.
In his long spell as head lad to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Naunton, Fergal was a key player in the training of two National heroes, Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002).
Last season Alvarado had three prep races but had not run since January and his trainer felt he may have been too fresh at Aintree which caused him to fight his jockey in the early stages and drop well off the pace.
This time around O’Brien has sent Alvarado to the races just once, in a veterans’ handicap chase at Doncaster in the middle of January when he did everything asked of him by connections in finishing fifth. But O’Brien took the precaution of giving his charge a strong racecourse gallop on an away day to Newbury recently.
O’Brien said: “He worked over a mile and six furlongs with a stable-mate and went really well. Fingers crossed for Aintree – we’re very happy with him.”
Alvarado will certainly not lack for expertise in the saddle – his jockey Paul Moloney has finished in the first four in the last six runnings including on this horse last year.
.....getting excited about this one
The chestnut with the distinctive white blaze, has been prepared specially for the race by his Fossebridge-based trainer Fergal O’Brien.
In his long spell as head lad to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Naunton, Fergal was a key player in the training of two National heroes, Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002).
Last season Alvarado had three prep races but had not run since January and his trainer felt he may have been too fresh at Aintree which caused him to fight his jockey in the early stages and drop well off the pace.
This time around O’Brien has sent Alvarado to the races just once, in a veterans’ handicap chase at Doncaster in the middle of January when he did everything asked of him by connections in finishing fifth. But O’Brien took the precaution of giving his charge a strong racecourse gallop on an away day to Newbury recently.
O’Brien said: “He worked over a mile and six furlongs with a stable-mate and went really well. Fingers crossed for Aintree – we’re very happy with him.”
Alvarado will certainly not lack for expertise in the saddle – his jockey Paul Moloney has finished in the first four in the last six runnings including on this horse last year.
.....getting excited about this one
Goonyella to sneak in? Has chances on his run behind Shutthefrontdoor on gd/Yield and of course he won the Midlands National in March. JJ Burke booked to ride this and Raz De Maree but whereas RDM doesn't have much chance unless it's soft, this one might. RDM to be withdrawn maybe?
Goonyella won't get in ......again.
Higher handicap mark after winning the Midlands Grand National will see him comfortably in next year.
With a run assured next year ,he would be running over hurdles until next April if he was mine.
Higher handicap mark after winning the Midlands Grand National will see him comfortably in next year.
With a run assured next year ,he would be running over hurdles until next April if he was mine.
He wants it hock deep but doesn't need it hock deep. If he gets in, his mark is not too far off Shutthefrontdoor's on their run in the 2014 Irish National. Probably won't get a run anyway!
A few horses on the RP site tonight showing as riderless including Shutthefrontdoor. Any problems there or just an RP glitch?
A few horses on the RP site tonight showing as riderless including Shutthefrontdoor. Any problems there or just an RP glitch?
Over the Aintree trip Goonyella would not need very soft ground , he won't get it in , but will be a big player next year with his higher handicap mark.
I think it is a myth that Goonyella needs it hock deep.
He is by Presenting who generally bounce off good ground but also perform well on heavy.
He ran Plinth to half a length on yielding ground over 2m 6f hurdles.
Perhaps Fairyhouse is not his course, so it`s a bit harsh to judge him on his Irish National run.
He is by Presenting who generally bounce off good ground but also perform well on heavy.
He ran Plinth to half a length on yielding ground over 2m 6f hurdles.
Perhaps Fairyhouse is not his course, so it`s a bit harsh to judge him on his Irish National run.
Still smarting at Carlito missing out, thought he had a great chance, hopefully trainer can get him down a few pounds from 147 and have him primed for next year, when he'll only be 10.
Back to this years; I still have a couple of nice ew bets on Alvarado and Al Co, and very happy, they will run big races. I usually like to have three running for me, and I spent a good bit of time looking for one at a nice price. However, I just cannot get away from Rocky Creek, he might only be 10/1 and its not normally a price that would interest me in this race, but there are too many positives, none more so than Nicholls form. Win bet at 10/1 taken.
Can't wait, love this race.
Good luck everyone with your bets.
Back to this years; I still have a couple of nice ew bets on Alvarado and Al Co, and very happy, they will run big races. I usually like to have three running for me, and I spent a good bit of time looking for one at a nice price. However, I just cannot get away from Rocky Creek, he might only be 10/1 and its not normally a price that would interest me in this race, but there are too many positives, none more so than Nicholls form. Win bet at 10/1 taken.
Can't wait, love this race.
Good luck everyone with your bets.
As I wrote it is no good backing jockeys that have won the race in the past, I just forgot to add unless it was the previous year or owned by Trevor Hemmings.
Going to have to change selection rules. Winner 8 year old and had a hard race at Cheltenham.
Alvarado placed only consolation.
Alvarado placed only consolation.
aye, Alvarado done well. Trends buster this one, 2nd top weight, only a lb off, carried 11.09 - fair play to anyone who backed him, I could never have him as I thought this was an afterthought, too much weight, not his ground etc. goes to show.
^ it was his ground alright. Thanks to overwatering. It was soft.
Apr 11, 2015 -- 4:49PM, Steamship wrote:
As I wrote it is no good backing jockeys that have won the race in the past, I just forgot to add unless it was the previous year or owned by Trevor Hemmings.
I must admit, I thought of this stat as he crossed the line.
Genuinely as bad a stat as I've heard for years. Like after the last Aspell was suddenly going to think 'oh, I won this last year, best pull him up and let somebody else have a go'.
I still can't see the angle at all...
Alvarado got me some money back . ground must have been soft for Monbeg Dude to get placed . i think Cause of causes ran a good race for a 7 year old and could well be a big player in the next few years . Winner was a blow to the trend guys like myself but can not work out all the time .
Against what ? The standard time for completing the National ? I.e all Nationals run., not just since they changed the shape of the whole race by fence modifications, making it easier to race over, and therefore quicker.
Many Clouds was definitely not my idea of the winner. However I am delighted that such a classy animal emerged victorious. Pleased for the trainer as he seems to be a top bloke. The Druids Nephew looked desperately unlucky and would surely have gone close. Best news of all though was that Many Clouds was ok: I was a little worried post-race. Can you imagine if he hadn't made it?
trends are now finished for the national now surely in the lasr few years you,d have to add in
french breds
8 yr old
2nd top weight
gold cup runners
hennesy winner,been on the go all season gold cup runner at least this should end all this hurdle preps hiding your light under a bushel carp,its just a long distance handicap these days
french breds
8 yr old
2nd top weight
gold cup runners
hennesy winner,been on the go all season gold cup runner at least this should end all this hurdle preps hiding your light under a bushel carp,its just a long distance handicap these days
only the fourth 8 year old winner in 40 years and carried more weight than every winner since Red Rum carried 12 stone in 1974 . i will keep faith in trends . on this occasion i think you just have to admire a brilliant weight carrying performance from this youngster and see if defends next year or goes for Gold cup . i doubt he will try both again as gap between the two back to 3 weeks .
The one trend that continues to hold up is needing more than one run in a season. If horses like Alvarado & Shutthefrontdoor had been giving more runs that would have gone to Aintree fitter. It really doesn't matter what the trainer does at home or what horses fill the places. The fittest horses wins and needs running.
I used to swear by trends for analyzing races and its taken me 30 years of betting to realise it really is all ballcocks. Look at how the Hennessy has changed over the years. Up until Strong Flow only 2 horses had won in the past 18 years carrying over 11 stone since Burrough Hill Lad humped topweight to victory in 1984. Now 9 of the last 12 have carried 11 stone or over. Why? Whats changed? Nothing.
The racing Post had two attempts at picking the winner on saturday using different sets of statistics.
The first one picked out Over The Bay. The next one Al Co with a few others being flagged up. The winner wasnt amongst them.
You have to simply delve through the form book and make your own opinion, regardless of whether it fits a trend.
The funny thing is that 20 years ago when they said the national was a lottery they were wrong because there was so much dead wood that could be weeded out. Now,with the rules they brought in about horse and jockey experience added to the massive prize money, far more horses have a chance of sorts that it really has become a lottery.
The racing Post had two attempts at picking the winner on saturday using different sets of statistics.
The first one picked out Over The Bay. The next one Al Co with a few others being flagged up. The winner wasnt amongst them.
You have to simply delve through the form book and make your own opinion, regardless of whether it fits a trend.
The funny thing is that 20 years ago when they said the national was a lottery they were wrong because there was so much dead wood that could be weeded out. Now,with the rules they brought in about horse and jockey experience added to the massive prize money, far more horses have a chance of sorts that it really has become a lottery.
i will be quite happy to keep using all the tried and trusted trends for the grand national . the only one i would be flexible with in the future is the weights . 3/6 last winners carried 11-5 or more . Many Clouds performance was the best for many a year and as he can carry only 1 lb more next year and be a stronger 9 year old he could well be first horse since Red Rum to follow up .
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