Mar 29, 2015 -- 5:42PM, Steamship wrote:
Is it anymore ridiculous than the old ones of grey horses, French bred, not over 11st 1lb, no more than 4 runs a season, not won more than once in a season. Taken as one example any trend can look silly.28 Qualifiers in 5 years 200 runners no winner 14% of the runners discounted. At a time when French breds have started winning it and horses carrying more than 11st 1lb have won it.I know it's a silly trend but I like it.
Strange stats to choose here...
A grey trend would be stupid.
A french bred trend is stupid. Although with an age related angle may just about be viable...
Not over 11st 1lb suggests carrying a big weight over 4 and a half miles isn't easy - makes sense.
No more than 4 runs suggests the horse is still fresh - makes sense.
Not winning more than one race in the season, keeps on the right side of the handicapper and again makes sense.
As PJay said a trend must have some logic in order to be applied.
If a horse I fancied for the National could have any rider on I would definitely be picking one who had won the race previously. If I could paint him grey I probably wouldn't bother...
Apr 11, 2015 -- 10:49AM, Steamship wrote:
As I wrote it is no good backing jockeys that have won the race in the past, I just forgot to add unless it was the previous year or owned by Trevor Hemmings.
I must admit, I thought of this stat as he crossed the line.
Genuinely as bad a stat as I've heard for years. Like after the last Aspell was suddenly going to think 'oh, I won this last year, best pull him up and let somebody else have a go'.
I still can't see the angle at all...