Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 148 comments are related to the topic:
Grand National Thoughts ... .. .
Grand National Thoughts ... .. .
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 148
|
By:
Mac, I've got Alvarado at 40, so he's looking good..........even at 43, you'd virtually be guaranteed a run
 |
|
By:
Just looking at Oscar Time form prior to his 4th placed finish in 2013...3 weeks prior he finished 17/17 beaten 100 lengths, run before that he finished 6/6 beaten 30 lengths, time before he Unseated. But the important thing is he had 4 runs that season to build up his fitness. Godsmejudge has had a similar prep in that regard.
Personally think backing horses for this race with 2 runs or less is madness. They need to be running to get race fit. |
|
By:
It was always 50/50 but I'm beginning to think Raz De Maree won't get a run now. He needs 11 to pull out still.
 |
|
By:
no harm in having a dabble, if it doesn't withdraw and doesn't get in you get your money back
|
|
By:
Only Mon Mome of winners going back to at least Party Politics has ran badly over the national fences before winning. I suspect the previous one before Mon Mome would be Last Suspect or earlier but I don't have the data.
|
|
By:
I'm sure it was the first attempt by Last Suspect over the fences when he won.
Since that time, 8 winners of The National had fallen in previous attempts over the fences, including Little Polvier who had fallen twice. |
|
By:
Happens in reverse too. Aldaniti fell at the first fence the year after his momentous victory.
|
|
By:
Spot on Facts, and Hallo Dandy suffered the same fate as well.
Figures are roughly the same in that period, with 9 winners going on to fall over The National fences in subsequent attempts, including Bindaree 3 times. |
|
By:
Just had a look through previous winners of the Nat and their form in the race previously
Red Marauder fell 00 won 01 Amberleigh House 3rd 03 won 04 Hedgehunter fell 04 won 05 Silver Birch fell 06 won 07 Mon Mome 10th 08 won 09 I don't think any winners in the 90's ran in the race previously. |
|
By:
Alvarado 4th 14 won 15
|
|
By:
Steamship, Royal Athlete fell in Void National, and Rough Quest fell in The Topham.
|
|
By:
What I look for is
at least placed in another national aged 9-11 jockey not won it before Any Aintree form To be honest though this year like the last few I have no view on the race and I will probably just throw £50 at it on the day on here |
|
By:
I think the placed in some kind of National(class 2 over 3 mile) is the best way to find the winner.
|
|
By:
Which would give us what shortlist for this years renewal ?
|
|
By:
I feel that one must have in mind that they are now "spruce hurdles"
|
|
By:
It's still ran over 4m3 at a faster pace if the fences are easier,so stamina is even more important
|
|
By:
which is why I think last years winner has a big chance again
|
|
By:
If right Teaforthree must have a big shout off 10-7. Right there at the last in last years Gold Cup. Excellent jumper despite last year's fall where it was felt he had already injured himself. Placed in the previous national.......the 33's available is very big IMO
|
|
By:
I would be all over Teaforthree but I can't get over that last run, I was waiting to see if it ran again last week but they pulled it out of races last Thursday and Friday. He's very well handicapped based on previous years but I get the impression the horse isn't in great order. I had a small e/w a few weeks ago but I won't be topping up
|
|
By:
Ran him back too quickly last time to get qualified for the Foxhunters.... could forgive that run. Was due to work after racing at Ffos Las today but skipped it because of the bad ground there. Trainer happy with him though and looks like Townend may ride.
|
|
By:
T43 out..pity......more study required for another selection
|
|
By:
Been lashing down up here for a good few days, and plenty of rain forecast for the next 7 days. Soft ground meeting looking favourite I would say.
|
|
By:
should be perfect for Godsmejudge , good to soft would be perfect but can handle the soft . You could cross off at least 30 of the 40 runners if ground is on soft side .
|
|
By:
I'm not being critical but why would a jockey having not won it before be a positive? One of the weakest trends/stats I've seen that. Has no logic.
Imagine seeing a horse you thought had the ideal profile for the race and then not backing him because BJG, Ruby or AP were on and they had won the race before.  --- Soft ground would certainly bring a different (less open) look to the race. On good / good to soft I can't see past Rocky Creek, as boring as it is. |
|
By:
No opinion either way on it, but just for info.........7 times in last 25 years, it's been won by jockey having first ride in the race.
|
|
By:
^ overall + - by following this method ?
|
|
By:
Benjy I did not say that not backing jockeys that have won it before was a positive but I try to avoid them. Since I have been betting 1985 Miinnehoma, Earth Summit and Hedgehunter were ridden by previous winners. Last year there were 4 qualifiers and the biggest price was 20-1 easy way of ruling out fancied horses.
So by my reckoning I will be ruling out the rides of L Aspell- Many Clouds D Jacob- Pineau De Rei A McCoy- Shutthefrontdoor L Treadwell R Power N Madden R Walsh- Ballycasey P Carberry I have not had a big bet on the race for a few years now |
|
By:
Steamship that is an absolutely ridiculous trend to follow.
Have you any logical reason as to why this rule should be used? |
|
By:
7/25 is surely not a good stat.
18/25 is a better one for jockey's who have raced in it before. I don't get it? |
|
By:
Is it anymore ridiculous than the old ones of grey horses, French bred, not over 11st 1lb, no more than 4 runs a season, not won more than once in a season. Taken as one example any trend can look silly.
28 Qualifiers in 5 years 200 runners no winner 14% of the runners discounted. At a time when French breds have started winning it and horses carrying more than 11st 1lb have won it. I know it's a silly trend but I like it. |
|
By:
The French bred thing was ridiculous too. People naturally look for trends but there just has to be some logic behind them.
The last 3 winners have been 11, 7 of the last 8 winners had more than one word in their name, all of the last 10 winners had a vowel as the second letter in their name!  |
|
By:
Some corkers on the OLBG sister site.
All trends mad but **** out selecting every horse by all manner of silly stats. Someone was ruling out GMJ because he had never won at 2 and a half mile.I thought a bit harsh considering he has never ran in a 2 an half mile chase. |
|
By:
come??
|
|
By:
There is a trend that has produced 14 winners in 34 runnings but still has 23 of this years entries
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Fozwald he will be fav come the hour!
 |
|
By:
No chance
|
|
By:
Just for you Benjy
Pineau De Re 8 runs Auroras Encore 7 runs Neptune Collonges 11st 5lb Ballabriggs 2 wins that season Don't Push It 11st 5lb Yep the three trends that you say make sense to avoid horses in the race have given you the winner the last 5 years. I look forward to your selections this year. I backed 3 of those winners. Do me a favour Benjy when you try and make me look stupid with something that I have already admitted is silly, do your homework first. |
|
By:
PJay the French bred stat looks silly now because so many of our good horses are French bred but Mon Mome was the first one for 100 years. In that time I backed Mely Moss in 2000 who was 2nd and it was his first run of the season.
The grey horse stat took 50 years to be broken. |
|
By:
Merry King mentioned by no one but is obviously sticking out a mile at the weights and at the prices.
As for a French bred trend: I wouldn't say it is stupid to go by breeding, as breeding is in fact of paramount importance in the National. By far and away the biggest National trend in recent years has been a breeding trend. |