Horse Antepost
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Bet bet at the festival for me, what is capable of beating this? would not be out of place in this years champion,but needs experience(lump on)
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Dear god man. I knew you were mad but not this mad. What's changed between him being 8-1 and 10-1 following his last run and now when the best you can get is less than 3-1? That ship has sailed. Piling in now is madness. They are running him next week to see if they can switch him off for the big day. What happens if he lights up like a Roman Candle and starts flagging off the home turn next week?
Don't get me wrong. I've backed him but at the right price and this isn't the right price. |
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its gambling though EO if he hoses up he will be odds on, and it could still be a shrewd move, or he could win by a diminishing margin and he could drift a point or two, not shrewd, or he could flop, drift alarmingly and the lumping on will prob break the bank
 I have a decent price and don,t think its as good as yours but im happy  |
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If he performs at a top track i will be convinced.
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odds on?!?!for the triumph!?!? the most idiotic statement i ever seen here!!
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ok maybe a bit melodramatic but he will shorten don't you agree kavvy?
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Of course alleged. Stick another piece of the jigsaw in place, given he'll be running at Cheltenham it's a pretty big one, and he may well go shorter, stay the same or lengthen. That's the nature of the beast but you make the relevant point. It's gambling and that involves getting in when the price is right or staying away if the price is wrong. As of now without next week to go on a best price of 11/4 is complete lunacy in my book and anybody taking it won't make the game pay in my view.
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looks like a better my tent or yours to me
could be astonishing short for the truimph if all goes well next week |
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sometimes you can miss the boat though EO , if he wins at chelts in the trial anyones best chance of a decent bet then will be day of the race, if they take him on of course...
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My old man sadly long gone was as good a judge as anyone I've known but he gave me great advice about betting and the first one was to remember that they have to price up every race and you don't have to bet in any race. If the boat has gone it's just not cool chasing it down the quay trying to jump aboard.
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If it were in the supreme , I would probably bet it, the Triumph looks easy, and in comparison too say Faugheen in the champion, Peace and Co looks the better price, this is a beast!
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http://youtu.be/DdltvU5BXco, they will be going quicker than this in the Triumph, should settle better and if not he could dominate non stayers!
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Could have been 10 clear at any stage in that race, could have won another 15L +(WOW)
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The RP have him on 142,I have him at a much higher figure, I think he had 10 - 15L in the locker at least so I believe this is already close too a 160+ rated figure on only his second start?(yes a guess,and speculation).
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On the subject of the Triumph does anyone know if Karezak is heading for this or a different race?
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In the Triumph at minute, not one for me , only beat the Wallace Line 5L,wears blinkers, can't see any appeal in form!
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Yeah i see that MJ was just wondering because of the obvious form lines if he may be rerouted elsewhere?
Ive seen he is in at Warwick this week and in the betfair |
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glad I didn't miss the boat
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I did
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Does it say HMS Titanic on the back?
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HMS dauntless
when he destroys the opposition.... |
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He did jink left on debut, and yes he could be headstrong,so something for layers too get excited about(just put him out in the betting you brave folk)
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patrick gone up 4/6 for saturday looks like a gift
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The risk of a non runner due to injury etc. is the same whatever the price a horse is now so I prefer to restrict my ante post bets to 20/1 plus. An ante post bet (apart from NRNB) is a treble. Will the horse be healthy, will it run in the race you expect and will it win. The first 2 parts are significant in a bet at short prices.
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Most silliest betting proposition really in terms of winning the Triumph - best bet at the festival - No... in most recent years winner of the triumph is not 5/2 in January... winner of the triumph is lurking around at bigger prices... will see what unfolds in the coming weeks....
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I think it will be 5/4 or shorter come the hour.So yes I expect a bloodless victory the weekend,this could be the most progressive hurdler in Europe(the world)?
For those betting faugheen going up in class against proven rivals with minor differences at the weights and opinion,and three of those including faugheen who make significant jumping errors,I just believe that for all the possible quirks Peace and Co may reveal or not?He looks much better value than faugheen at current price against a much less proven field. |
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He's at it again.
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I think this is potentially a superstar horse based on his first runs so far. Hopefully he confirms it on Saturday.
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Let's hope not but tomorrow there may be few other sounds coming from Cheltenham other than air rushing out of a popped balloon and metro sobbing uncontrollably.
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Crazy short for tomorrow considering what he actually beat on his british debut.
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Can't believe the boldness of some to compare with Faugheen at such early stage. I wouldn't want most on this page to be disapointed tomorrow so hopefully he puts up a nice performance to keep the magic going. For myself I'm thinking of going on a decent lay with Nicholls unexposed Ibis, the consistent Bivouac and the `nearly` one Karezak all three coming with good claims into the race, not as good as P&C but his price is too small should be at least 2/1.
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I think you'd get knocked over at 2-1 but I certainly wouldn't be backing odds on.
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I wouldn't him back at 2/1(I would however take anything at or above 3/1 considering all tomorrow's dangers), I think that would be a minimum fair price coming into the race from beating a very tired horse in second last time out; as you can tell that hasn't impressed me as much as it has others but I'll be glad to be set straight tomorrow afternoon ;-)
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Fair play tintin putting up your views before the race which is always welcome here.
I think he should be 1.88 Im already 300 deep, mainly down to history and not his blinding uk debut. |
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He comes on back of beating a good ground very tired horse on soft conditions on a flat and galloping course. It doesn't take too much courage for me to lay him at anything below evens, considering the demanding Cheltenham and those 3 with good claims in behind. Triumph is 2 months away, money can be made tomorrow with this horse, either as a backer or layer(will find out tomorrow which)
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layed him now at 1.5 with the fear of smart money coming in tomorrow and going into evens, better now than later in this case :-)
Just watched Karezak december trial in second, the 2 leaders left Stars Over The Sea 29 lengths behind, Karezak was sent home much too earlier for my liking but still managed to stay up there until he blundered the last hurdle and also went on the far side of the rails, plus he also gave 3 pounds to the winner, this performance looks more impressive to my eyes than P&Cs... Of course he disapointed last time in the champions juvenile finale ridden for the first time by Aidan Coleman who gave him a too confident ride but that one came too soon after a hard race at Chelt and again blundered at 2 hurdles in the home straight which didn't helped but again proved he devours soft ground which will get tomorrow as well. At the odds he stands for value at 8/1 but there are other dangers for this `nearly` one to be backed so better to simply lay the odds-on favourite who comes with shady form beating a very tired horse by a flattered margin on a totally different type of track. The favourite could find a lot more under pressure tomorrow but is odds-on worth of finding that out? |
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Fir play Timtin,wish you luck.
Personally I think sometimes a race comes along that is better just watching,i have a feeling this is one. No money involved for me,but bl00dy fascinating to see this horse again,blimey did he look good .. |
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Good to see opposing views timtin. I'm as opposite to you in my views on this horse. What he did at Donny was astonishing and I think he has the potential to be on a different planet of good. He has a 147 rated Bivouac and 142 rated Karazek in the race. If he can smash them we're looking at a high 150's juvenile.
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well backers were right, but what a farce of a race, form wise we learned nothing because the race wasn't a race until well after they've covered a mile.
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We learned that the horse acts on the track.
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