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The main focus for this race will be on the two market leaders; Caid Du Berlais & Splash of Ginge, both of whom need to recover from bad mistakes made in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. I’d be keen to take them on because of this. If I was backing one of them it would be CDB who has a progressive feel about him and may be better than his mark. SOG I feel has a stiff mark.
The ground at the moment is described as g/s and forecast is dry and breezy, so there’s a chance it could ride better come start time. This will suit some, possibly Ericht or Darna and they could improve for it.
Most in this race are relatively exposed and it’s hard to get enthusiastic about them. There may be more to come from Tenor Nivernais who was only put up 3lb for his last win, but there’s every chance he could bounce plus his Cheltenham form is woeful. I watched Diocles win nicely at Kelso on soft ground he doesn’t like, normally I’d be interested but you couldn’t back McCain just now.
Champion Court will love the ground and is slipping down the ratings and it’s very interesting to see Connor Shoemark booked to ride. The trainer used this decent 3lb claimer effectively on Benbane Head a few weeks back, with the claim he’ll be running off a mark of 140. In the Paddy Power CC ran off a mark of 149 and finished 12l behind CDB giving him 5lbs. Potentially he’s weighted to reverse form with that one but I think the ground is the key to his chances.
He’s overpriced at 16/1 and is a solid ew bet as he’s very consistent around the track.
The ground at the moment is described as g/s and forecast is dry and breezy, so there’s a chance it could ride better come start time. This will suit some, possibly Ericht or Darna and they could improve for it.
Most in this race are relatively exposed and it’s hard to get enthusiastic about them. There may be more to come from Tenor Nivernais who was only put up 3lb for his last win, but there’s every chance he could bounce plus his Cheltenham form is woeful. I watched Diocles win nicely at Kelso on soft ground he doesn’t like, normally I’d be interested but you couldn’t back McCain just now.
Champion Court will love the ground and is slipping down the ratings and it’s very interesting to see Connor Shoemark booked to ride. The trainer used this decent 3lb claimer effectively on Benbane Head a few weeks back, with the claim he’ll be running off a mark of 140. In the Paddy Power CC ran off a mark of 149 and finished 12l behind CDB giving him 5lbs. Potentially he’s weighted to reverse form with that one but I think the ground is the key to his chances.
He’s overpriced at 16/1 and is a solid ew bet as he’s very consistent around the track.
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I'm certain Caid Du Berlais & Splash of Ginge are still both very well handicapped. Both have the option of going for a Grade 1 at the festival if they win well here. Both 6/1 and dutched that's 5/2 shot. Which equated to 28% chance of winning, they've better chance than that. I'm sure the former will be trying, Splash of Ginge may have a we hack around confidence builder then go for Plate. Hard to know really.
I've a feeling Ericht is dong a Triolo D'Alene, losing lots on winter ground and then going for the Topham as he needs proper quick spring ground. Champion Court is certainly better than his current mark, but you do wonder if they're spending the season getting his mark down as low as possible then making all in the Plate when he has a stone in hand. He's 10yo now and even if the plate doesn't work out they'll have a well handicapped horse for Paddy Power next season.
Messy betting on these races for any kind of decent money, never know who is all out to win it. Who is out for experience. So many Novices going handicap route the added experience is a big bonus. Look at Many Clouds winning a Graduation Chase, or Alderwood going for one more chase past the 3 he needed for a mark before the Grand Annual. Both won well in their primary aims despite their lto run putting them up in the h/c. Tricky to judge h/c races with so much importance put on big pots.
I've a feeling Ericht is dong a Triolo D'Alene, losing lots on winter ground and then going for the Topham as he needs proper quick spring ground. Champion Court is certainly better than his current mark, but you do wonder if they're spending the season getting his mark down as low as possible then making all in the Plate when he has a stone in hand. He's 10yo now and even if the plate doesn't work out they'll have a well handicapped horse for Paddy Power next season.
Messy betting on these races for any kind of decent money, never know who is all out to win it. Who is out for experience. So many Novices going handicap route the added experience is a big bonus. Look at Many Clouds winning a Graduation Chase, or Alderwood going for one more chase past the 3 he needed for a mark before the Grand Annual. Both won well in their primary aims despite their lto run putting them up in the h/c. Tricky to judge h/c races with so much importance put on big pots.
Wide open race and many could win but the clock says Tenor Nivernais which I shall back e-w if I remember. Got to take the grand children to the cinema tomorrow morning followed by McDonalds.
Splash of Ginge was my first thought but I didn't expect him to be fav so I'm leaving him. The worry last time out was that he was a fairly inexperienced novice (who has only run well once over fences) stepping into a competitive handicap against experienced chasers and the result was he fell... He was travelling well compared to a lot around him at the time but it was still 4 out and he was 10 lengths down, it's hard to consider him unlucky imo. I'm also not sure on how the form of that race will work out, just had a bit of a dodgy look to it imo.
Caid Du Berlais was never going in the above race even before the mistake. While I wouldn't be surprised to see him win either I can't ignore that over almost identical conditions today...
The others are all pretty exposed in all honesty but my pick is Rolling Aces. He's not obviously well handicapped but he's been competitive off 156 in better races and is now essentially off 150, as I think Bowen is good for his 5lb. Conditions today also much better for him and he looks sure to go very close again. Given my feel for the opposition he's worth a small bet for me at 10s (may even drift a little more).
Caid Du Berlais was never going in the above race even before the mistake. While I wouldn't be surprised to see him win either I can't ignore that over almost identical conditions today...
The others are all pretty exposed in all honesty but my pick is Rolling Aces. He's not obviously well handicapped but he's been competitive off 156 in better races and is now essentially off 150, as I think Bowen is good for his 5lb. Conditions today also much better for him and he looks sure to go very close again. Given my feel for the opposition he's worth a small bet for me at 10s (may even drift a little more).
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