Horse Antepost
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ive just had a fresh look at last years GC and for some time have thought of like many as a rather odd race and odd result .particurlarly as SC ns Bobsworth seem to have the race between them going to the last tho Bobsworth had been not quite as likely through the race and was staying on the best he could.
WHAT I THINK IS REALLY INTERSTING is that SC and Bobs both run into a pretruding rail causing both to switch slightly and lose crucial momentum.Given that Fehily had set sail for home and played his trump card..SC was understandlebly unable to repsond when the wave of 3 passed him with 100 yards to run. With SC in better form this year according to PN and backed up by his BF chase win 8/1 for The GC llos a bet worth having and throwing a few quid at he 20/1 double well worth a shout..Bobsworth could come back into the equation given softer ground..though the jury is out on how he is taking all his hard races at this point in his career(great horse for the heart and soul he puts in!)
In short 8/1 WELL WORTH TAKING and well have some 20/1 as well. Confident with a clear run SC will do the business
WHAT I THINK IS REALLY INTERSTING is that SC and Bobs both run into a pretruding rail causing both to switch slightly and lose crucial momentum.Given that Fehily had set sail for home and played his trump card..SC was understandlebly unable to repsond when the wave of 3 passed him with 100 yards to run. With SC in better form this year according to PN and backed up by his BF chase win 8/1 for The GC llos a bet worth having and throwing a few quid at he 20/1 double well worth a shout..Bobsworth could come back into the equation given softer ground..though the jury is out on how he is taking all his hard races at this point in his career(great horse for the heart and soul he puts in!)
In short 8/1 WELL WORTH TAKING and well have some 20/1 as well. Confident with a clear run SC will do the business
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I'm on conti for KC, and thats for other reason. I've scratch through his performance back on March, the ground was too quick and he's much better over flat tracks.
His on peak form right this moment, and the KG is Nichols race. He'll win the KG, however I feel a fresh face will win the GC in March
His on peak form right this moment, and the KG is Nichols race. He'll win the KG, however I feel a fresh face will win the GC in March
couldn't have conti for gold cup, conti winning king george would be a great result for me tho
Of course he can win. Each time I see a re run of last year I still can't believe he didn't win. I backed him then & I'll be backing him again. There doesn't seem to be anything outstanding coming through. Lord Windermere ran a great comeback run, but the Lexus will tell us more.
8/1 to win & 2/1 a place seems more than fair.
8/1 to win & 2/1 a place seems more than fair.
I honestly could not bet any in the RP entries,will be amazed if we do not see some late entries?
Nichols thinks he's better early season and on flat tracks I believe... He is wrong a shocking amount about his own horses though.
,Yes a no bet race with current entries,unless we have a novice put forward,I will go no where near this bunch.
statistically speaking, over the whole history of the race, horses that have previously been beaten in the Gold Cup have an abysmal record with only Kauto Star and one in 80s, who I forget, having been able to win it after being beaten before... and Kauto had of course already won it
in the long run, it is my belief, betting horses with such strong statistical obstacles to overcome in single figure odds is not likely to prove profitable so I make SC a bad bet but good for making the market; he could of course win but I would bet that over the next 30 Gold Cups that opposing horses previously beaten in the CGC will prove more profitable than supporting them
in the long run, it is my belief, betting horses with such strong statistical obstacles to overcome in single figure odds is not likely to prove profitable so I make SC a bad bet but good for making the market; he could of course win but I would bet that over the next 30 Gold Cups that opposing horses previously beaten in the CGC will prove more profitable than supporting them
The Fellow won it in 94 at his 4th (FOURTH!) attempt Judo. But yes, it's rare I wouldn't want to be SC or indeed any of last seasons runners.
So what wins Champagne Fever chase form is cack,Conti bt Cue Card and Dynaste in last seasons race, maybe Menorah given decent ground also good record at Kempton, but ran awful in it last season.Simonsig wont turn up, so Conti for me at 11/4.
King George, yes SC probs the winner but for the Gold Cup I would rule him out altogether
yes The Fellow was the other one in living memory, I did go right back to the 70s and don't remember another one, maybe one of the Dickinson horses did it, but many many more have failed than succeeded
as I say, it's a long term approach to oppose those with big negatives to overcome; some will defy the stats but enough won't to make it profitable
in this years Gold Cup I scratched:
all non Grade 1 winners
horses previously beaten in the Gold Cup
horses older than 9
horses that did not run in a Grade 1 chase at the previous festival
and that only left 2 horses
yes The Fellow was the other one in living memory, I did go right back to the 70s and don't remember another one, maybe one of the Dickinson horses did it, but many many more have failed than succeeded
as I say, it's a long term approach to oppose those with big negatives to overcome; some will defy the stats but enough won't to make it profitable
in this years Gold Cup I scratched:
all non Grade 1 winners
horses previously beaten in the Gold Cup
horses older than 9
horses that did not run in a Grade 1 chase at the previous festival
and that only left 2 horses
Judo sorry was posting re King George, is one Cue Card re Gold Cup?
no, talking about Conti for the Gold Cup, not mentioned Cue Card
are you asking if I have backed Cue Card? if so then 'no'
are you asking if I have backed Cue Card? if so then 'no'
he means he backed lord w and bobsin this years gold cup
Ok thought he was relating to next Gold Cup. Will go back to bed working nights.
yes I will be scratching BW this year though, will be 10 yo, previously beaten and trying to regain the title - 3 major negatives
My memory is very poor but I think What A Myth, Tied Cottage and Desert Orchid may also be winners that were beaten in previous runnings.
Holywell looks like he fits the GC criteria for you judorick
Holywell didn't run in Grade 1 at prev festival. Won handicap
Champagne Fever,Sam Winner,Don Cossack,Morning Assembly are 4 so far. But Sam Winner and Don Cossack over fences other 2 Grade 1s over hurdles from what I remember?
Holywell has not had the blinkers on this season so far, but we know from his previous that once he does he will be transformed. What are they waiting for?
We don't know the opposition or going yet but SC was unconchious on the run in last year and I think that the final uphill furlong could find him out again unless they go slowly for the first circuit. If they go a good even gallop, Lord Windermere will beat him again.
CF had nothing to beat last time out. hard to know where he is at,.
Bregawn is another one who got beat in the Gold Cup, but came back to win it the next year, and I think Cool Ground is another and also Tied Cottage. See More Business got carried out on his first attempt before winning the next year. There are more than at first glance.
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