Ladbroke Hurdle 20th Dec 2014

Well here we go folks. Last decent handicap before the Welsh National and fwiw Ive been interested in Bayan from the red hot Gordon Elliott stable for a good while now. To start with, he is one of the most open trainers when it comes to future targets. I for one wont forget him flagging up the Coral Cup as Carlito Brigantes target at the start of the season a few years back and availing the 33-1 ante post. He nailed this race a couple of years back with Cause Of Causes and then grabbed a third with Flaxen Flare last year. Funnily enough, this was given as Bayan's target last year but Elliott has been at pains to point out he doesnt want deep winter ground and pulled him out last year on account of the heavy ground. Again this year he identified the race as his target, taking him out of the Greatwood to aim him at this. Given he could have run off 138 last year and now has to go off 146 (the other two ran off 141 & 142) says as much for Elliotts patience and desire to win this race as much as anything else. Although its currently soft at Ascot, the weather forecast is generally favourable with a bit of rain due mid week but dry on the run up to the race, so good to soft would be the likely underfoot conditions. Clearly Sign of a Victory is the main player but Im not convinced by the form of that race and added to the hike in the weights makes him one to take on, regardless of how easily he won. For me, 14-1 Bayan is a fair price and one Im happy to take.
The other one at a price would be Red Merlin at 33-1 generally. He's had his problems but is decent and goes off a 4lb higher mark than when winning the Swinton hurdle before his injury. he's been brought back gradually and will also appreciate the better ground, has Ascot form on the flat and with the stable going well is one with claims at a working mans price.
Thoughts?