Horse Antepost
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Well here we go folks. Last decent handicap before the Welsh National and fwiw Ive been interested in Bayan from the red hot Gordon Elliott stable for a good while now. To start with, he is one of the most open trainers when it comes to future targets. I for one wont forget him flagging up the Coral Cup as Carlito Brigantes target at the start of the season a few years back and availing the 33-1 ante post. He nailed this race a couple of years back with Cause Of Causes and then grabbed a third with Flaxen Flare last year. Funnily enough, this was given as Bayan's target last year but Elliott has been at pains to point out he doesnt want deep winter ground and pulled him out last year on account of the heavy ground. Again this year he identified the race as his target, taking him out of the Greatwood to aim him at this. Given he could have run off 138 last year and now has to go off 146 (the other two ran off 141 & 142) says as much for Elliotts patience and desire to win this race as much as anything else. Although its currently soft at Ascot, the weather forecast is generally favourable with a bit of rain due mid week but dry on the run up to the race, so good to soft would be the likely underfoot conditions. Clearly Sign of a Victory is the main player but Im not convinced by the form of that race and added to the hike in the weights makes him one to take on, regardless of how easily he won. For me, 14-1 Bayan is a fair price and one Im happy to take.
The other one at a price would be Red Merlin at 33-1 generally. He's had his problems but is decent and goes off a 4lb higher mark than when winning the Swinton hurdle before his injury. he's been brought back gradually and will also appreciate the better ground, has Ascot form on the flat and with the stable going well is one with claims at a working mans price.
Thoughts?
The other one at a price would be Red Merlin at 33-1 generally. He's had his problems but is decent and goes off a 4lb higher mark than when winning the Swinton hurdle before his injury. he's been brought back gradually and will also appreciate the better ground, has Ascot form on the flat and with the stable going well is one with claims at a working mans price.
Thoughts?
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Confirmation of entry tomorrow. Should make the task slightly less impossible.
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I like SHELFORD and Activial...
Shelford is more interesting stable won it last year with WILLIAMs SAVOUR, seems progressive... 16/1... i expect him to be much shorter on the day... |
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Pine Creek @ 18 main bet for me. I did consider Bayan @ 14/1 but worried about the ground so will just have a small saver.
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I'm surprised Sign of a Victory isn't shorter tbh. might need decent ground though so not an antepost proposition.
Shelford and Activial would be the two for me if it were soft... |
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Confirmation of entry stage simplified things somewhat. Will wait for declaration stage and then finalise selections.
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Market suggesting SoaV is non runner?
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Yep looks bit iffy, but money for other horses maybe was too short? Was target while now. Be interested if Willie brings his over?
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forecasting 10mils + tomorrw, and more rain friday could be soft to heavy
if so cant see SOV turning up, GLV very weak to hobbs says better ground the better totally missed the boat with activia (fry more rain the better), still would worry hes inexperienced but surley thrown in off 137. |
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Like Pine Creek in this,E/W.16s on the
book 4 plcs'.18s on here. Ran well in the Greatwood for a long way and should be bang on for this if he shows.Won a nice h'cap here last season and only about 6lb higher,won that race quite well.Hope D Oregan gets the ride, should go weel if the ground don't get too soft. GL ALL |
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Wondering if anyone has any stats on horses running from out of the handicap in this race?
Sea Beat anyone  |
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ground looks like being at least soft,now.
SOAV doubtful runner according to Hendo. |
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 one of me antepost doon the swanny oh the joys  |
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Looks like this might cut up even more than i first thought. 22 at 5 day stage, looking to me like a chance of it turning out to be one of them little tight handicaps with 12 - 14 runner field
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Anyone know if the top weight will run?
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very doubtful, look at betting on here don't want soft going.
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Not so sure, it could be people making presumptions. There's nothing else for the horse in the near future and it would make sense to keep stablemate's weight down and keep one or two lurkers out of the handicap. Horse won on sticky enough ground last time. Can't source a quote from Hobbs and am wondering if it's people putting 2+2 together to make 5.
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Well its 30 on here for few quid.
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taken a chance with BARADARI @ 25s ew.
poor run lto(forced to make running),but ran well enough time before when close enough 3rd behind sign of a victory and dawalan over c/d. nice racing weight at present of 10-6,could run into a place if hopefully held up this time. |
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The weights definitely favour the Fry horse. He should win but it is his seasonal debut.
If Ruanaca takes his chance he can be given a decent shout at the weights. Inconsistent he is but his form with Deep Trouble reads well and the form with Our Conor, if taken at face value, would suggest that he is chucked in. A speculative e/w bet at a big price. He is proven on soft ground. |
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If the Jonjo form was not so dire, Goodwood Mirage would be a good thing, but in the circumstances I would prefer Shelford.
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Balgarry will attempt to make all and probably win comfortably. Good Luck.
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Balgarry will win this - you're right. Ground favours him and David doesn't set targets like this to fail - he sees it as a challenge and knows his onions does Mr. Pipe - trust me on this one.
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balgarry interests me aswell,
 clondaw warrior and glv won,t be far away either |
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The Pipe team are absolutely bang in form they were very happy with the plan at Newbury today and are looking forward to the Ladbroke.
I don't know for sure but the signs are there and that is good enough for me - this one is most definitely OFF. |
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Jebril
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Jebril likes the going. Bit of Ascot form. Trainer in good form. Low weight.
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110 on here with no pink - you think Jebril runs ?
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Harchi. He's got an intended jockey (Tom Cannon) on the Racing Post website, which suggests he's intended.
I think he's a really lively outsider. |
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I've been told that Pine Creek is massively overpriced at 20/1
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Whats the ground going to be like at ascot, anyone live near by course
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Judging by the diversity of horses mentioned on various forums and TV shows, it is going to be a very competitive race.
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For a big-priced e/w bet ,what about Cool Macavity? He has been overlooked because he was playing second fiddle to Sign Of A Victory.
He was upped 10 for his Irish win but there are some who say that it should have been more. At 33/1 he looks to have some value. |
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I thought the same yesterday dunlaying and backed him accordingly. No way hendo/Bg combo will be allowed to go off at 33/1 imo
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nice to see Activial and Shelford come in ... of the outsiders each way GASSIN GOLF is interesting at 25s... has had secondtitus last few runs... was second in Imperial Cup and only 5 yr old...
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might have lost my money with baradari,looks a nr
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Unoriginal but had a win bet on Clondaw Warrior..could hack up with 10dt on his back..question mark is the ground. David Casey has won plenty of big handicaps for Mullins too so like that angle. Saver on Activial because he loves soft.
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I'm not saying he won't be he didn't hack up in the Greatwood off 10st...
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The clock says the following,in handicap order,Garde La Victoire,Swing Bowler,Gassin Golf and Hello George. Will back them all each way.No particular fancy but just hoping for the best.
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