Horse Antepost
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It seems to me that quite a few near the top of the market have questions to answer.
Chance du roy won well last year and first time out is not a problem, also has won off a mark of 143 but 11st 6ibs puts me off and at 9/1 i think he might be worth a saver but others appeal more
Balbriggan is of a decent weight and is only a 7yo so the needed improvement is possible, but again his form is well short of what is needed and again unless you know something 9/1 looks skinny to me.
Goonyella
This is an interesting runner stays all day and is ridden by a capable 7ibs claimer has won off 127 and now on 136 and i think he should be included in your shortlist.
Greenflag not the best of returns in terms of distance beaten but the competition at carlisle was top stuff over a trip to short anouther 7yo who could be a 150 horse by the end of the season jumps well and cant be left out .
Just a par. anouther potential 7yo improver and is 3ibs better of with Alfie Spinner for his season opener at wincanton
In my view it could be significant in the last 3 years only 4horses carrying more than 11st have been placed and 2 of them were trained by P Nicholls so a horse who has contested top novice contests like Just a par has to be of interest.
OUR FATHER who knows what you will get with this guy, but if he reproduced his cheltenham run, of a couple of years ago and off a mark of 136 he could be a blot and dot up.
Mendip express is clearly useful but in my view no longer well handicapped, needs to improve of 11st 9ibs.
others of interest are Alfie Spinner, Saint Are, and Highland Lodge all well handicapped and all likely to be in the frame of less than 11st
So my rather to long shortlist is
Our Father
Goonyella
Saint Are
Highland Lodge
Alfie Spinner
Greenflag
Just a Par
Good luck
Chance du roy won well last year and first time out is not a problem, also has won off a mark of 143 but 11st 6ibs puts me off and at 9/1 i think he might be worth a saver but others appeal more
Balbriggan is of a decent weight and is only a 7yo so the needed improvement is possible, but again his form is well short of what is needed and again unless you know something 9/1 looks skinny to me.
Goonyella
This is an interesting runner stays all day and is ridden by a capable 7ibs claimer has won off 127 and now on 136 and i think he should be included in your shortlist.
Greenflag not the best of returns in terms of distance beaten but the competition at carlisle was top stuff over a trip to short anouther 7yo who could be a 150 horse by the end of the season jumps well and cant be left out .
Just a par. anouther potential 7yo improver and is 3ibs better of with Alfie Spinner for his season opener at wincanton
In my view it could be significant in the last 3 years only 4horses carrying more than 11st have been placed and 2 of them were trained by P Nicholls so a horse who has contested top novice contests like Just a par has to be of interest.
OUR FATHER who knows what you will get with this guy, but if he reproduced his cheltenham run, of a couple of years ago and off a mark of 136 he could be a blot and dot up.
Mendip express is clearly useful but in my view no longer well handicapped, needs to improve of 11st 9ibs.
others of interest are Alfie Spinner, Saint Are, and Highland Lodge all well handicapped and all likely to be in the frame of less than 11st
So my rather to long shortlist is
Our Father
Goonyella
Saint Are
Highland Lodge
Alfie Spinner
Greenflag
Just a Par
Good luck
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Best race of the weekend and good value antepost provided our selections get to the
start line. Think Benbens and Highland Lodge will go well at 20s and 16's. Any chance some bookie will give 5 places. |
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Green Flag and Highland Lodge for me.Cracking race.
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I hope Balbriggen doesnt run as he cant be left out either
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would fancy green flag a bit myself,but he's also entered in the intermediate chase on friday at sandown and theres only 6 remaining in that.
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Twiston Davies seems to target this race as he won it in 2010, 2012 anyone see a pattern here. Benbens being the solution, somesay coincidence
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Yeah I took the 20's about Just A Par last week given Nicholls flagged it up as his aim at the start of the season. He nearly won it with a very similar horse in Join Together in 2012. Decent novice contesting both the RSA & Mildmay Nov chase, lightly raced with just 6 chase starts and ran 7th in his prep in a handicap for the first time, all like just like Just A Par.
However, Join Together was beaten a neck off 148 and Just A Par gets in off 141, which, if he can start to translate that good novice hurdle form to fences could be a bloody good mark. Has been a hard horse to get fit by all accounts so should come on lots for the race. He also landed the race with Mr Pointment off 146 who had run just 4 times over fences and Eurotrek off 147 who had run only 6 times over fences despite his years so you cant really complain at 141. Highland Lodge could go well if he gets an uncontested lead, given he ran 4th in the Hennesy last year and is now 11lb lower. Nothing wrong with his prep at Chepstow so he would be my other pick at 16's. |
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The form of Just A Par is a little huff-n-puff but if he is back to his best he should win this. But for a big priced runner what about old Oscar Time?
With Sam claiming 3 he is set to carry 10:12, he goes on the ground and he loves Aintree. He is getting on a bit but he has a sporting chance at 25/1. |
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Is it not true that Mendip Express was a gambled on ballot out of this years Grand National?
Am sure it was he! |
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Think you are thinking of Night In Milan who won at Doncaster
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benbens 16
highland lodge 20 1st 5 skybet for moi, moneyback on win part if finishing 2,3,4, or 5th |
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Just A Par pricewise?
20's 1st 5 Highland Lodge will do for me too. |
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1st time poster snap this must be a sign best of luck
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Chance Du Roy looks a very good e/w (5 places) bet at 12/1 to run another good race over this course. Won this last year and finished an impressive 6th in the National when not seeing out the trip. At 141, he is 6lbs higher than last years 135. But he did finish second to Topham specialist Always Waining off 148 in 2012 so he's certainly capable.
Down throughout the years you generally needed a course specialist here. The tinkering of the fences will bring more horses into it and that is the obvious worry. Philip Hobbs is in excellent form and Tom O'Brien gets on well with the horse, and over these fences. Should he run his race he'll be right there and difficult to see him out of the first 5. |
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e/w payout on Chance Du Roy.
Good to see the course specialists still doing well. Well done Sam W-C and the oldtimer Oscar Time! |
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Interesting the way Nick Luck desperately emphasised that Balbriggan was injured on the flat. Utter bollox. He did his leg landing over the fence. The whole thing is a house of cards because of yellow bellied racing administration. They've neutered the course and they're still killing horses. The Chair? Give me a break.
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Smaller softer fences are making the jockeys take more chances with speed on jumping.
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Horses will still die on the course because of the amount of runners in the races it really is as simple as that.
I agree with Paul Kealey that the course had to change because we should not be tricking horses and expecting them to fall. I feel that in 30 years people will look at the National's that we grew up with (Im 45)with horror. |
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I agree too that the drop fences were unfair to the horses and am happy they're gone, but that's not all they changed is it? I look at the fences now, especially The Chair which for me was more iconic than Becher's as it was a fairer test requiring class and bravery to get over it well, and I think, so what? What annoys me is that the race is still called the Grand National and the fences retain their traditional names. As far as I'm concerned that does a massive disservice to the men, women and horses who went round the course before it was neutered. All it is now is a marketing exercise, hence the evasion when horses continue to be killed.
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The following is taken from David Pipes stable tour at the start of the season:
"He went shooting up to 143 and he's most unlikely to be winning off that mark. He'll need to return to a more realistic figure again before he's able to win again." The realistic figure he was thinking of must have been 142....... |
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^ In reference to Poole Master.....
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Wrong race
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oops..
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