*StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle*

Calipto will hack up !

Vaniteux on the bit

BJG, where there any weights when you got list of entries for
the GREATWOOD?

Weights on the 5th Nov

Handicap ratings are now on Racing Post website.

I had a stab at the stats for this race last might pre-entries, based on

- winner being 4-6 year old,
= choosing from the stables who target and do well,
- the fact that most winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival,
- a lot of horses aren't experienced in handicaps,
- and a good few have ran in grade 1 already.
- 140+ rated win most of the time

Two of my four horse shortlist from these stats, have entries, and I am not looking too far away from those two, with those being

GARDE LA VICTOIRE (P Hobbs) 144 rating - who is running rather than going chasing early season, after a handy seasonal debut at the weekend, and

IRVING (P Nicholls) - 148 rating the 7/2 Jt Fav for the Supreme Novices after hacking over everything over 2M in England last winter. Defo a Champion Hurdle aspirant, so at the weights he ought to run well, if recovered from his problem.

The only other I would look at, as I have tried and come so close several times in big handicaps, is BAYAN (G Elliott) - who has form similar to Rooster Booster, in that winner, had hit the bar several times in big field handicaps before sweeping clear here,  I font think Bayan has that quality, but he may knock at the door again.

Thanks BJG.

Champion hurdle class horses like Rooser Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim & Menorah have won this race shifting big weights. Zarkandar would have run here if he hadn't met with a setback in 2011 and he won the betfair Hurdle off 151. So the first place to look at is to look at is who could be a 160+ horse in here and end up in a Champion hurdle. For the past two seasons none of the previous seasons top Novices ran in it, so it then is down to a handicap hurdle race, where one would find one on a winable mark.

This season, Irving goes for the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Which leaves Supreme 3rd Vaniteux as the stand out horse here who could make into a Champion Hurdle horse. they thought it was a year too soon for him in the Supreme but ran him anyway and he ran very well to be 3rd. He'll have strengthened up over the summer and a mark of 147 will be a lowly one if he is a Champion hurdle contender.

Jezki was on a Mark of 153 after his Supreme 3rd. What would he have done off that mark in a strongly run race like this? That's the kind of angle we need to start with. Class horses on a low mark will make light work of handicappers. Another horse that could fall into that category is Goodwood Mirage, he cost a fortune and didn't have the best Juvenile season. But he was gelded in the summer and had a bone chip removed from his knee. He'll have matured and he won fto in taking fashion already this season. The speed and gears he showed he came through the field was impressive. It's telling that Jonjo believes he can make up into a Champion hurdle horse, if he is right then 141 will be a lowly mark for this. Jonjo could also run GMOOH to control top weight and leave Goodwood on 11 stone.

I've backed Vaniteux & Goodwood Mirage

steady money for Vaniteux today good sign considering stablemate sign of a victory hacked up on sat

Was looking into having an ante post poke in this to try and grab a bit of value but seems very hard to know who is being aimed at this........I haven't read or heard much from trainers on intended runners!!!
Going by the money on here I can see vaniteux has had money for it and I'm sure will go close but was hoping to find something at least double digits

The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle
£100,000 total prize fund, Cheltenham, Sunday, November 16, 2014. Two miles and half a furlong. For four-year-old and upwards. Penalties: after November 2, a winner of a hurdle 5lb, no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed October 28, entries revealed October 30 (57 entries), weights revealed November 5. Five-day confirmations November 10, final declarations November 14 - maximum field of 24.

Owner
Age
Wgt
Owner
Trainer
ROCK ON RUBY (IRE)
9
11-12
The Festival Goers
Harry Fry
PURPLE BAY (IRE)
5
11-06
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
GET ME OUT OF HERE (IRE)
10
11-03
J P McManus
Jonjo O'Neill
SIGN OF A VICTORY (IRE)
5
11-02
Matt & Lauren Morgan
Nicky Henderson
SEA LORD (IRE)
7
11-00
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
IRVING
6
11-00
Axom XLIX
Paul Nicholls
VANITEUX (FR)
5
10-13
Richard & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes
Nicky Henderson
BAYAN (IRE)
5
10-12
Core Syndicate
Gordon Elliott IRE
HAWK HIGH (IRE)
4
10-12
Trevor Hemmings
Tim Easterby
KENTUCKY HYDEN (IRE)
4
10-12
Simon Munir & Isaac Souede
Nicky Henderson
BLUE HERON (IRE)
6
10-12
Horwood Harriers Partnership
Dan Skelton
ORGILGO BAY (IRE)
4
10-11
D Kierans
John McConnell
MONTBAZON (FR)
7
10-11
David Sewell
Alan King
VOLNAY DE THAIX (FR)
5
10-10
Judy Wilson
Nicky Henderson
GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR)
5
10-10
Diana Whateley
Philip Hobbs
WICKLOW BRAVE
5
10-10
Wicklow Bloodstock Limited
Willie Mullins IRE
TAGLIETELLE
5
10-09
Olduvai Syndicate
Gordon Elliott IRE
ROMAN FLIGHT (IRE)
6
10-09
Favourites Racing
David Dennis
SWING BOWLER
7
10-09
K Alexander
David Pipe
GOODWOOD MIRAGE (IRE)
4
10-08
Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford
Jonjo O'Neill
DANEKING
5
10-07
Susannah Ricci
Willie Mullins IRE
RAINBOW PEAK (IRE)
8
10-06
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
VIBRATO VALTAT (FR)
5
10-06
Axom XLIII
Paul Nicholls
BALTIMORE ROCK (IRE)
5
10-06
Roger Brookhouse
David Pipe
WAXIES DARGLE
5
10-05
J P McManus
Noel Meade IRE
FISHER
5
10-05
Exors of the late Mr David Barker
John Quinn
HAMMERSLY LAKE (FR)
6
10-05
Michael Buckley
Nicky Henderson
NOBLE INN (FR)
4
10-05
M J Mulvaney
Willie Mullins IRE
PEARL SWAN (FR)
6
10-04
Robin Geffen
Paul Nicholls
MIJHAAR
6
10-03
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
KATGARY (FR)
4
10-03
Andrea & Graham Wylie
Paul Nicholls
ART MAURESQUE (FR)
4
10-02
Mrs Johnny de la Hey
Paul Nicholls
PINE CREEK
6
10-02
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
OLOFI (FR)
8
10-01
McNeill Family
Tom George
LE FIN BOIS (FR)
4
10-01
Power Panels Electrical Systems Ltd
Tim Vaughan
LUCKY BRIDLE (IRE)
5
10-01
Andrea & Graham Wylie
Willie Mullins IRE
BARADARI (IRE)
4
10-00
A Brooks
Venetia Williams
RAVEN'S TOWER (USA)
4
10-00
Faithful Friends
Ben Pauling
MOUNTAIN KING
5
10-00
Diana Whateley
Philip Hobbs
ANATOL (FR)
4
9-12
Mrs Johnny de la Hey
Paul Nicholls
LASER BLAZER
6
9-11
Calne Engineering Ltd
Alan King
BROUGHTON (GER)
4
9-10
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
REGAL ENCORE (IRE)
6
9-10
J P McManus
Anthony Honeyball
ASTRE DE LA COUR (FR)
4
9-10
The Front Runners Partnership
Robert Walford
DUBAWI ISLAND (FR)
5
9-09
Andrew Brooks & Julian Taylor
Venetia Williams
AREA FIFTY ONE
6
9-09
Middleham Park Racing III
Nicky Henderson
MINELLAFORLEISURE (IRE)
6
9-09
The Patient Partnership
Alex Hales
DORMELLO MO (FR)
4
9-08
The Kyle & Stewart Families
Paul Nicholls
VIOLET DANCER
4
9-08
D Bessell & Galloping On The South Downs
Gary Moore
SHEMSHAL (FR)
6
9-07
Ms Sheila Moffett
Tony Martin IRE
EAGLE ROCK (IRE)
6
9-07
The Ivy Syndicate
Tom Tate
EXITAS (IRE)
6
9-06
Phil Middleton
Phil Middleton
CASSELLS ROCK (IRE)
4
9-05
D Houlihan
Tony Martin IRE
SLEEPY HAVEN (IRE)
4
9-05
Alan Baxter Anthony Bloor Dave Cheetham
Jennie Candlish
CLONDAW WARRIOR (IRE)
7
9-01
Act D Wagg Syndicate
Willie Mullins IRE
CIVIL WAR (IRE)
5
9-00
Ashley Head
Gary Moore
CALIPTO (FR)
4
0 0
Chris Giles & Ian Fogg
Paul Nicholls

57 entries
10 Irish-trained

It's a tenuous link but wild blue yonder was neck and neck with sign of a victory when he came down at Newbury,I thought why would probably win at the time.wby finished a 2l behind vaniteaux after a poor passage in the supremes.sign of a victory lags up last weekend and is raised 11lb..I reckon vaniteaux is at least 7lb well in ..the point is half a dozen others will be too.katgary and hawk high have festival form too and with normal improvement expected will run lively races..it'll be a cracker

This latest posting by you BJG, is not the one which will come later once the BHA have perused the withdrawals, it is too soon after the 12.00 midday time as stipulated!!!!

What? that was the entries last week

5 day decs today

1    1413-    Vaniteux250      5    11-12    Nicky Henderson        147    144    152
2    1315-1    Blue Heron28      6    11-11    Dan Skelton        146    114    140
3    4011-3    Garde La Victoire22      5    11-9    Philip Hobbs        144    131    149
4    563711    Roman Flight23      6    11-8    David Dennis        143    129    151
5    165B-1    Goodwood Mirage32      4    11-7    Jonjo O´Neill        141    104    149
6    23211-    Daneking210      5    11-6    W P Mullins        139    116    149
7    12114-    Baltimore Rock226      5    11-5    David Pipe        140    132    147
8    33/F-2    Hammersly Lake30    6    11-4    Nicky Henderson        139    69    151
9    11dF20/    Pearl Swan645      6    11-3    Paul Nicholls        138    —    —
10    1F5-0    Mijhaar50      6    11-2    John Ferguson        137    133    148
11    1126-8    Katgary22    4    11-2    Paul Nicholls        137    126    144
12    5/167-    Pine Creek330      6    11-1    John Ferguson        136    133    152
13    100/U-    Olofi567      8    11-0    Tom George        135    —    —
14    25F0-3    Baradari15      4    10-13    Venetia Williams        134    143    152
15    21617-    Raven´s Tower23F      4    10-13    Ben Pauling        134    122    141
16    124-84    Regal Encore22      6    10-9    Anthony Honeyball        130    130    151
17    1406/2    Eagle Rock22      6    10-6    Tom Tate        127    130    146
18    F-4214    Shemshal28F      6    10-6    A J Martin        118    105    149
19    342111    Exitas8 5x      6    10-10    Phil Middleton        131    123    161
20    6/092-    Clondaw Warrior21F      7    10-0    W P Mullins        115    —    —
21    2532-4    Civil War18F    5    9-13    Gary Moore        120    127    145

You have got it right eventually.

David Pipe special coming up with Baltimore Rock imo. Handicap mark still in a good place having missed the Festival and ran well at Aintree. A line through  Sgt Reckless puts him very close with Vaniteux at the weights, yet he is 3 times the price. Proven on soft ground as well.

I also think DP has more chance of readying him for this as most of NJH's have seemed to need it.

Have taken the sponsors excellent offer of 5 places and dont think the 10-1 will last.

Goodwood Mirage was my next pick but fear the ground will go against him.

bazzar    Joined: 17 Mar 05
Replies: 6144 10 Nov 14 14:33 
You have got it right eventually.

Baradari looks way overpriced: he ran a belter on his seasonal reappearance on ground that would have been lively enough for him and is off the same mark here. At the Festival he was given a very poor ride but finished strongly in a race that is working out extremely well. Finally, 4 year olds have taken 2 of the last 3 runnings and Ms Pitstop has her horses in fine form.

CCM who is paying 5 places? Ta

Anything to add other than being pedantic, Bazz?!

I agree re Baradari. His form figs over hurdles on Heavy or Soft ground are 12, and the 2nd place at Newbury should have been a win had he not blundered and nearly unseated. On Soft ground he seems best and off 134 he could be well handicapped under those conditions. However his jumping is far from great, and he makes mistakes in most races, so a 20 runner handicap is not exactly ideal for him at the moment. With positives and negatives to his chance I think 25/1 is worth a little bet. He could place but equally could blunder away his chances.

Litwf.... Sid James is mate.

I like Baradari too. Venetia was very positive pre festival and had a good bet ew on him then and agree he ran well.

Baradari still 25's with Sid... Fair play to them... Top price on most and paying top 5.

Thanks mate

Small e/w on Katgary @ 20/1 for me. Should have won the race at the Festival imo.

Clondaw Warrior getting hammered,tops 13/2 now.

Clondaw going to be horrifically in at the weights surely...

Ive heard that Gerraghty goes to Ireland on sunday to ride Jezki ??

Interesting, wonder what will happen to the Greatwood favourite if that is true ?

May explain the moves for others in race and his slight ease.

Mark Walsh rides Jezki.

Geraghty stays in the U.K for to ride for Nicky Henderson.

Nasty little drift taking place on Vaniteux right now. Maybe its a ground issue ??

beginning to like Olofi's chances...

I could see Olofi. Tom George in blinding form in handicaps. Garde La Victoire was disappointing in the Supreme but has good enough form elsewhere. Goodwood Mirage could be chucked in though, he won despite McCoy being a virtual passenger last time.

Gone for Baradari &  Pearl Swan, both will love the ground. I still think Baradari will be much better over 2m4f+.

Very trappy race - Regal Encore and Pine Creek for me.

Surely if Clondaw Warrior transfers his flat improvement to hurdles he must go very close. IF always seems to get in the way a bit.

Jaysus, Baradari bow 12/1 from the 25/1, has he been price wised? Tempted to lay off at that price!

*now

Yup is PW

Ta. Hope he jumps properly today.

Goodwood Mirage a non-runner.

sticking with Olofi ew and Baltimore Rock ew (both his form and his trainer's comments about him are quite compelling)

very trappy though, can see the case for lots of these, not sure the fav will go on the ground, will he?

If he wins it will be in spite of the ground and a mindboggling form frank for Supreme Novices...

pearl swan ew

fox

shades of Menorah in this race a few years back...

With my first choice Goodwood Mirage out, I transferred to my substitute and in it went! Amazing to see the SP. The last time I looked on here it was 21 in the win market.

boom

Goodwood out, lost ap bet there. Vaniteux 2nd. Totally gutted tbh.

wd winners

Well done deepingfox

yep, well done fox - Clondaw Warrior was off a feather weight but the other three in the first four were the top three in the handicap - you would n't have thought it would be beyond the wit of man for the connections of some of the others to ensure a bit of pace in the race to try and make the weights tell in that testing ground.

Notwithstanding that, further evidence that Supreme form is tip top and further confirmation that Vautour is a monster.

...and wd, sageform

Thank FACTS, ZEALOT and REASEHEATH, These Handicap Hurdles, particularly the 2M trip, are right up my street, and the Greatwood opens the season again in style.

Looking back at the date I picked GARDE LA VICTOIRE, it was before the entries, and weights were announced, that's how desperate I was to get to work on the race.

Given the UK's dearth of Champion Hurdle talent, then GARDE LA VICTOIRE, will probably follow a lot of prior winners and come back to Cheltenham for the International in December, and if successful there, then onto the Champion Hurdle.

Barry certainly didnt give up the inside to anyone on Vaniteux.

second could be a machine

where will he go next ?

On better ground hopefully, reckon maybe Kempton at Xmas? Supreme form looking very good.

was thinking the Ladbroke maybe is it the sat before xmas. still well in if goes up to 153 ?,

^ yep, that was my first thought - can see the winner going back to Cheltenham for the Bula as was.

give the new one a nice lead up the hill imo

Philip Hobbs is a very realistic trainer and good at assessing the ability of the horses he trains. When asked about GLV yesterday, he said he is 20lb below champion hurdle class. He is rarely that far out. The Counyt Hurdle of more likely the Coral Cup would be the right festival target for him but despite yesterdays result, I am not convinced that Cheltenham is his best track anyway. He won because of the tactics as much as his ability. He is quite similar to Menorah and chasing could be his game next season.

Philip Hobbs is a very realistic trainer and good at assessing the ability of the horses he trains. When asked about GLV yesterday, he said he is 20lb below champion hurdle class. He is rarely that far out. The Counyt Hurdle of more likely the Coral Cup would be the right festival target for him but despite yesterdays result, I am not convinced that Cheltenham is his best track anyway. He won because of the tactics as much as his ability. He is quite similar to Menorah and chasing could be his game next season.

Can't say I fancied the winner at all - great ride in a tactical affair and a stable on fire making the difference. Can't have him as Champion Hurdle contender - maybe they should go chasing now.
Vanitieux certainly ran eyecatchingly and I'd give him another chance in one of the Champion Hurdle trials.