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Calipto will hack up !
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Vaniteux on the bit
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BJG, where there any weights when you got list of entries for
the GREATWOOD? |
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Weights on the 5th Nov
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Handicap ratings are now on Racing Post website.
I had a stab at the stats for this race last might pre-entries, based on - winner being 4-6 year old, = choosing from the stables who target and do well, - the fact that most winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, - a lot of horses aren't experienced in handicaps, - and a good few have ran in grade 1 already. - 140+ rated win most of the time Two of my four horse shortlist from these stats, have entries, and I am not looking too far away from those two, with those being GARDE LA VICTOIRE (P Hobbs) 144 rating - who is running rather than going chasing early season, after a handy seasonal debut at the weekend, and IRVING (P Nicholls) - 148 rating the 7/2 Jt Fav for the Supreme Novices after hacking over everything over 2M in England last winter. Defo a Champion Hurdle aspirant, so at the weights he ought to run well, if recovered from his problem. The only other I would look at, as I have tried and come so close several times in big handicaps, is BAYAN (G Elliott) - who has form similar to Rooster Booster, in that winner, had hit the bar several times in big field handicaps before sweeping clear here, I font think Bayan has that quality, but he may knock at the door again. |
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Thanks BJG.
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Champion hurdle class horses like Rooser Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim & Menorah have won this race shifting big weights. Zarkandar would have run here if he hadn't met with a setback in 2011 and he won the betfair Hurdle off 151. So the first place to look at is to look at is who could be a 160+ horse in here and end up in a Champion hurdle. For the past two seasons none of the previous seasons top Novices ran in it, so it then is down to a handicap hurdle race, where one would find one on a winable mark.
This season, Irving goes for the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Which leaves Supreme 3rd Vaniteux as the stand out horse here who could make into a Champion Hurdle horse. they thought it was a year too soon for him in the Supreme but ran him anyway and he ran very well to be 3rd. He'll have strengthened up over the summer and a mark of 147 will be a lowly one if he is a Champion hurdle contender. Jezki was on a Mark of 153 after his Supreme 3rd. What would he have done off that mark in a strongly run race like this? That's the kind of angle we need to start with. Class horses on a low mark will make light work of handicappers. Another horse that could fall into that category is Goodwood Mirage, he cost a fortune and didn't have the best Juvenile season. But he was gelded in the summer and had a bone chip removed from his knee. He'll have matured and he won fto in taking fashion already this season. The speed and gears he showed he came through the field was impressive. It's telling that Jonjo believes he can make up into a Champion hurdle horse, if he is right then 141 will be a lowly mark for this. Jonjo could also run GMOOH to control top weight and leave Goodwood on 11 stone. I've backed Vaniteux & Goodwood Mirage |
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steady money for Vaniteux today good sign considering stablemate sign of a victory hacked up on sat
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Was looking into having an ante post poke in this to try and grab a bit of value but seems very hard to know who is being aimed at this........I haven't read or heard much from trainers on intended runners!!!
Going by the money on here I can see vaniteux has had money for it and I'm sure will go close but was hoping to find something at least double digits |
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The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle
£100,000 total prize fund, Cheltenham, Sunday, November 16, 2014. Two miles and half a furlong. For four-year-old and upwards. Penalties: after November 2, a winner of a hurdle 5lb, no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed October 28, entries revealed October 30 (57 entries), weights revealed November 5. Five-day confirmations November 10, final declarations November 14 - maximum field of 24. Owner Age Wgt Owner Trainer ROCK ON RUBY (IRE) 9 11-12 The Festival Goers Harry Fry PURPLE BAY (IRE) 5 11-06 Bloomfields John Ferguson GET ME OUT OF HERE (IRE) 10 11-03 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill SIGN OF A VICTORY (IRE) 5 11-02 Matt & Lauren Morgan Nicky Henderson SEA LORD (IRE) 7 11-00 Bloomfields John Ferguson IRVING 6 11-00 Axom XLIX Paul Nicholls VANITEUX (FR) 5 10-13 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes Nicky Henderson BAYAN (IRE) 5 10-12 Core Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE HAWK HIGH (IRE) 4 10-12 Trevor Hemmings Tim Easterby KENTUCKY HYDEN (IRE) 4 10-12 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson BLUE HERON (IRE) 6 10-12 Horwood Harriers Partnership Dan Skelton ORGILGO BAY (IRE) 4 10-11 D Kierans John McConnell MONTBAZON (FR) 7 10-11 David Sewell Alan King VOLNAY DE THAIX (FR) 5 10-10 Judy Wilson Nicky Henderson GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR) 5 10-10 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs WICKLOW BRAVE 5 10-10 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE TAGLIETELLE 5 10-09 Olduvai Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE ROMAN FLIGHT (IRE) 6 10-09 Favourites Racing David Dennis SWING BOWLER 7 10-09 K Alexander David Pipe GOODWOOD MIRAGE (IRE) 4 10-08 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Jonjo O'Neill DANEKING 5 10-07 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE RAINBOW PEAK (IRE) 8 10-06 Bloomfields John Ferguson VIBRATO VALTAT (FR) 5 10-06 Axom XLIII Paul Nicholls BALTIMORE ROCK (IRE) 5 10-06 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe WAXIES DARGLE 5 10-05 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE FISHER 5 10-05 Exors of the late Mr David Barker John Quinn HAMMERSLY LAKE (FR) 6 10-05 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson NOBLE INN (FR) 4 10-05 M J Mulvaney Willie Mullins IRE PEARL SWAN (FR) 6 10-04 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls MIJHAAR 6 10-03 Bloomfields John Ferguson KATGARY (FR) 4 10-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls ART MAURESQUE (FR) 4 10-02 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls PINE CREEK 6 10-02 Bloomfields John Ferguson OLOFI (FR) 8 10-01 McNeill Family Tom George LE FIN BOIS (FR) 4 10-01 Power Panels Electrical Systems Ltd Tim Vaughan LUCKY BRIDLE (IRE) 5 10-01 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE BARADARI (IRE) 4 10-00 A Brooks Venetia Williams RAVEN'S TOWER (USA) 4 10-00 Faithful Friends Ben Pauling MOUNTAIN KING 5 10-00 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs ANATOL (FR) 4 9-12 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls LASER BLAZER 6 9-11 Calne Engineering Ltd Alan King BROUGHTON (GER) 4 9-10 Bloomfields John Ferguson REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 6 9-10 J P McManus Anthony Honeyball ASTRE DE LA COUR (FR) 4 9-10 The Front Runners Partnership Robert Walford DUBAWI ISLAND (FR) 5 9-09 Andrew Brooks & Julian Taylor Venetia Williams AREA FIFTY ONE 6 9-09 Middleham Park Racing III Nicky Henderson MINELLAFORLEISURE (IRE) 6 9-09 The Patient Partnership Alex Hales DORMELLO MO (FR) 4 9-08 The Kyle & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls VIOLET DANCER 4 9-08 D Bessell & Galloping On The South Downs Gary Moore SHEMSHAL (FR) 6 9-07 Ms Sheila Moffett Tony Martin IRE EAGLE ROCK (IRE) 6 9-07 The Ivy Syndicate Tom Tate EXITAS (IRE) 6 9-06 Phil Middleton Phil Middleton CASSELLS ROCK (IRE) 4 9-05 D Houlihan Tony Martin IRE SLEEPY HAVEN (IRE) 4 9-05 Alan Baxter Anthony Bloor Dave Cheetham Jennie Candlish CLONDAW WARRIOR (IRE) 7 9-01 Act D Wagg Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE CIVIL WAR (IRE) 5 9-00 Ashley Head Gary Moore CALIPTO (FR) 4 0 0 Chris Giles & Ian Fogg Paul Nicholls 57 entries 10 Irish-trained |
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It's a tenuous link but wild blue yonder was neck and neck with sign of a victory when he came down at Newbury,I thought why would probably win at the time.wby finished a 2l behind vaniteaux after a poor passage in the supremes.sign of a victory lags up last weekend and is raised 11lb..I reckon vaniteaux is at least 7lb well in ..the point is half a dozen others will be too.katgary and hawk high have festival form too and with normal improvement expected will run lively races..it'll be a cracker
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This latest posting by you BJG, is not the one which will come later once the BHA have perused the withdrawals, it is too soon after the 12.00 midday time as stipulated!!!!
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What?
that was the entries last week5 day decs today |
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1 1413- Vaniteux250 5 11-12 Nicky Henderson 147 144 152
2 1315-1 Blue Heron28 6 11-11 Dan Skelton 146 114 140 3 4011-3 Garde La Victoire22 5 11-9 Philip Hobbs 144 131 149 4 563711 Roman Flight23 6 11-8 David Dennis 143 129 151 5 165B-1 Goodwood Mirage32 4 11-7 Jonjo O´Neill 141 104 149 6 23211- Daneking210 5 11-6 W P Mullins 139 116 149 7 12114- Baltimore Rock226 5 11-5 David Pipe 140 132 147 8 33/F-2 Hammersly Lake30 6 11-4 Nicky Henderson 139 69 151 9 11dF20/ Pearl Swan645 6 11-3 Paul Nicholls 138 — — 10 1F5-0 Mijhaar50 6 11-2 John Ferguson 137 133 148 11 1126-8 Katgary22 4 11-2 Paul Nicholls 137 126 144 12 5/167- Pine Creek330 6 11-1 John Ferguson 136 133 152 13 100/U- Olofi567 8 11-0 Tom George 135 — — 14 25F0-3 Baradari15 4 10-13 Venetia Williams 134 143 152 15 21617- Raven´s Tower23F 4 10-13 Ben Pauling 134 122 141 16 124-84 Regal Encore22 6 10-9 Anthony Honeyball 130 130 151 17 1406/2 Eagle Rock22 6 10-6 Tom Tate 127 130 146 18 F-4214 Shemshal28F 6 10-6 A J Martin 118 105 149 19 342111 Exitas8 5x 6 10-10 Phil Middleton 131 123 161 20 6/092- Clondaw Warrior21F 7 10-0 W P Mullins 115 — — 21 2532-4 Civil War18F 5 9-13 Gary Moore 120 127 145 |
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You have got it right eventually.
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David Pipe special coming up with Baltimore Rock imo. Handicap mark still in a good place having missed the Festival and ran well at Aintree. A line through Sgt Reckless puts him very close with Vaniteux at the weights, yet he is 3 times the price. Proven on soft ground as well.
I also think DP has more chance of readying him for this as most of NJH's have seemed to need it. Have taken the sponsors excellent offer of 5 places and dont think the 10-1 will last. Goodwood Mirage was my next pick but fear the ground will go against him. |
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bazzar Joined: 17 Mar 05
Replies: 6144 10 Nov 14 14:33 You have got it right eventually. ![]() |
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Baradari looks way overpriced: he ran a belter on his seasonal reappearance on ground that would have been lively enough for him and is off the same mark here. At the Festival he was given a very poor ride but finished strongly in a race that is working out extremely well. Finally, 4 year olds have taken 2 of the last 3 runnings and Ms Pitstop has her horses in fine form.
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CCM who is paying 5 places? Ta
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Anything to add other than being pedantic, Bazz?!
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I agree re Baradari. His form figs over hurdles on Heavy or Soft ground are 12, and the 2nd place at Newbury should have been a win had he not blundered and nearly unseated. On Soft ground he seems best and off 134 he could be well handicapped under those conditions. However his jumping is far from great, and he makes mistakes in most races, so a 20 runner handicap is not exactly ideal for him at the moment. With positives and negatives to his chance I think 25/1 is worth a little bet. He could place but equally could blunder away his chances.
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Litwf.... Sid James is mate.
I like Baradari too. Venetia was very positive pre festival and had a good bet ew on him then and agree he ran well. |
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Baradari still 25's with Sid... Fair play to them... Top price on most and paying top 5.
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Thanks mate
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Small e/w on Katgary @ 20/1 for me. Should have won the race at the Festival imo.
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Clondaw Warrior getting hammered,tops 13/2 now.
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Clondaw going to be horrifically in at the weights surely...
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Ive heard that Gerraghty goes to Ireland on sunday to ride Jezki ??
Interesting, wonder what will happen to the Greatwood favourite if that is true ? May explain the moves for others in race and his slight ease. |
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Mark Walsh rides Jezki.
Geraghty stays in the U.K for to ride for Nicky Henderson. |
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Nasty little drift taking place on Vaniteux right now. Maybe its a ground issue ??
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beginning to like Olofi's chances...
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I could see Olofi. Tom George in blinding form in handicaps. Garde La Victoire was disappointing in the Supreme but has good enough form elsewhere. Goodwood Mirage could be chucked in though, he won despite McCoy being a virtual passenger last time.
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Gone for Baradari & Pearl Swan, both will love the ground. I still think Baradari will be much better over 2m4f+.
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Very trappy race - Regal Encore and Pine Creek for me.
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Surely if Clondaw Warrior transfers his flat improvement to hurdles he must go very close. IF always seems to get in the way a bit.
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Jaysus, Baradari bow 12/1 from the 25/1, has he been price wised? Tempted to lay off at that price!
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*now
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Yup is PW
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Ta. Hope he jumps properly today.
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