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Horse Antepost
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These 192 comments are related to the topic:
*THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP*
*THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP*
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Replies: 192
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Just had a look, and in the last 9 runnings only Diamond Harry and Carruthers actually carried less than 11-00 to victory. The advantage of having a real class established horse in the field would be to put many lower rated out of the handicap and agree this would help a horse like Smad Place but it would reflect in its price.
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yes its changed once over 11st was deemed impossible but now it seems you need to be weighted above that mark but I think this year lacks a real top class horse at the head of the handicap and therefore I believe the winner will be below 11st
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I believe the winner will carry more than 11st
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Unioniste is an interesting possibility. Jodami would have won by 10 lengths under any other rider/trainer. Not sure which of them decided on the tactics but he was a 20lb better horse when making the running or following a fast pace as in his GC win. Mark Dwyer or the trainer seemed to think that he had finishing speed but he didn't, hence his defeat in the Hennessy and his second GC.
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jackadam looks a proper 3 mile chaser to me travelled comfortably in the JLT, agaist 160 animals over a trip to short, went for that race as he was to young to tackle the RSA
looks a stone + well in Will go off sub 2/1 |
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Anyone know the acceptors, says 12 noon on RP site but nothing showing at 13.45!!!
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Bazzar go to Oddschecker 23 left in. Racing Post will update later.
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Or the market on here has the 23 acceptors only.
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Horse Age Owner Trainer
Houblon des Obeaux (FR) 7 Mrs Julian Blackwell Venetia Williams Triolo d’Alene (FR) 7 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr Nicky Henderson Rocky Creek (IRE) 8 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls Ballynagour (IRE) 8 Mr Allan Stennett David Pipe Black Thunder (FR) 7 Donlon, MacDonald, Fulton & Webb Paul Nicholls Smad Place (FR) 7 Mrs Peter Andrews Alan King Fingal Bay (IRE) 8 Mrs R. J. Skan Philip Hobbs Hadrian’s Approach (IRE) 7 Mr & Mrs R. Kelvin-Hughes Nicky Henderson Vino Griego (FR) 9 Mr C. E. Stedman Gary Moore Many Clouds (IRE) 7 Mr Trevor Hemmings Oliver Sherwood Unioniste (FR) 6 Mr J. Hales Paul Nicholls Monbeg Dude (IRE) 9 Oydunow Michael Scudamore Annacotty (IRE) 6 Mrs Peter Prowting Martin Keighley What A Warrior (IRE) 7 Mr & Mrs Gordon Pink Dan Skelton Djakadam (FR) 5 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins The Druids Nephew (IRE) 7 The Stonehenge Druids Neil Mulholland Wychwoods Brook (GB) 8 Kevin & Anne Glastonbury Evan Williams Midnight Prayer (GB) 9 The Legends Partnership Alan King Via Sundown (FR) 6 The Old Brokers Gary Moore Victors Serenade (IRE) 9 Michael & Angela Bone Anthony Honeyball Le Reve (IRE) 6 Mr P. H. Betts Lucy Wadham Merry King (IRE) 7 Mr F. Gillespie Jonjo O’Neill Edmund Kean (IRE) 7 Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter Peter Bowen |
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Thanks SHOCKSTER, have taken a chance with a PN HORSE, but not
sure just hopeful. |
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I've laid off my Black Thunder bet after his comments today saying it had had a hard race at Ascot and would wait to see if he was ok later in the week. He said he might go to Sandown the following Saturday. Smad Place for me.
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Black Thunder is also entered in Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle this Saturday...
as are Le Reve and Victor's Serenade |
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Yeah noticed that Rease. La Reve is expected to run at Newbury but no idea about VS.
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Midnight Prayer off a low weight could go well at a decent price if showing up. Fav is a very silly price imo.
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just started going through these...very disappointed sherwood has managed to land a 7lb penalty for winning a tin pot race at carlisle, it certainly doesn't give the punter much to play with
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Handicap connundrum of class v weight.
Some good cases made already for a few. Purely on handicapping Merry King looks really well treated,looks to have plenty of stamina and on flatter tracks jumps well. Second guessing jonjo can be a route to the poorhouse, sneaky suspicion this horse might get some headgear,he travelled really well in 1st time visor at haydock before breaking blood vessel next run.Not sure he needed the 4 mile slog at ayr,however Linehan took the ride with a claim,keen to see whos booked saturday. Soft ground would be fine,sure to get decent pace,he will be staying on. GL ALL |
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jackadam looks a proper 3 mile chaser to me travelled comfortably in the JLT, agaist 160 animals over a trip to short
shrewd judge to know after 2 miles and a fall the potential that was to come over 6f further  |
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6f more than the jlt, and after he,d completed 2 miles of said race
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BJG
29 Oct 14 15:40 Joined: 20 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 29,741 | Blogger: BJG's blog I like Djakadam but anyone backin at single figs this far out is off their rocker imo (hes 8s fav) Has never won over further than 2m5 - has never won on ground with good in the description(may nt be but still), has never won in a field with a double digit amount runners (has fallen and unseated on both occassions that he has run with more than 10 runners) so may nt like horses around him ^^^^ I totally agree with this comment that was posted 27 days ago  , and now its 4-1  |
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just looking through the JLT result, he was n't even particularly fancied for that...
went off at 14/1, 9th in the market out of 12 and fell four out so too early to know what would've happened. Therefore the price can only be a function of the confidence of his connections given that he's not jumped a fence in public since- he might win, he might be a superstar but I think the great thing if you're a punter in this race is that if you're taking him on you're not going to be beating yourself up afterwards if he wins and you lose. |
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imo the price is all about the weight to be carried, rather than conections comments or form or his age or his trainer or the fact its coming from Ireland.
place lay imo |
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im not a layer so disregard that last statement
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if it's just about the weight then surely there's one or two other potentially progressive horses in the race who must therefore be overpriced - Le Reve and Via Sundown for example...
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wonder who will ride smad place with w hutchinson confirmed as out injured.
all quiet on the choc thornton return. |
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well, I can't see a JPM horse in the race, AP is back tomorrow and will presumably be at Newbury to ride More Of That.
Jonjo might offer him the ride on Merry King I suppose but he's not ridden MK the last twice. |
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there sure are rease but which one?
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I know, mate - quite fancy Ballynagour myself but he's got plenty of weight, it's trappy as per...
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Been raining lightly all day in Newbury, i was going to treat the ground as soft but it wont be far off heavy on the day.
The good thing about jump racing is that the clerks cant change the ground in the aid of bookmakers  I think i will be able to remove the doubtful stayers if the rain continues. |
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ReaseHeath makes a number of good points about the JLT. The Hennesey is a race for real 3 mile plus stayers and requires solid jumping in a big field. Not convinced that Djakadam has these qualities but I am certain that he would be double figures if trained by anybody else and is no value at the price. So level stakes on Smad Place and Many Clouds and if Djakadam wins then so be it.
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If he was trained by anyone other than Mullins the beast would be a 20/1 shot.
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I've gone over this now a few times and the way I see it is quite clear.
Djakadam could be the fly in ointment as we just don't know about him. He does look well weighted but there are too many questions to be answered to back him at 4/1 or perhaps shorter. The next 3 in the market are the horses that interest me most. Smad Place as I have mentioned before is my personal favourite. Has won on first appearance of season twice out of 4 attempts and would have been 3 out of 4 but for falling at the last last season when well clear. He won at this meeting in the 4yo hurdle in 2010 and on his only other appearance at the track last February when he beat Sam Winner (won at Chelt 2 weeks ago over 3m3f) over 3m on heavy, so 2 from 2 course form. Only beaten once when completing in chases when 2nd in RSA. 155 is ok if you believe he is a Gold Cup horse as would need to be 165/170 to be in with a chance. Many clouds off 151 reads well on a line through O'faolains Boy, but would have been of real interest off 144 if he had not raced at Carlisle 4 weeks ago. It also appears his best form is going right handed, but again if he is a Gold Cup horses 151 is a winable mark. Fingal Bay also has to be of interest off 153 if his lack of experience over fences can be overcome. His 2nd behind Dynaste if taken literally has him thrown in here, but lots of runners on only his 4th chase start is a worry, but it would not be a great surprise if he won IMO. The rest look pretty exposed to me or not good enough. Ballynagour IF he stayed would be a possibility but it's a big IF. Black Thunder could be in the mix if he runs but Nicholls says he had a hard race at Ascot and has been put up 6lb. If any of the 3 mentioned initially are Gold cup class then I can't see any of the lower weights being anywhere near good enough even in receipt of weight. Smad Place just, for me with Fingal Bay and Many Clouds just behind. |
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ANNACOTTY and VIA SUNDOWN at big prices for me. Both have won on soft going, both had a recent run, both have some decent form and both could be improvers. Speculative i know but only small stakes for a bit of fun.
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Djakadam was going no better than Sizing Gold who ended up beaten 24L in the JLT.
At the time of the fall there was plenty of racing left and his previous novice form was nothing special. Possibly he would have been outpaced and finished quite a way behind. I think Ricci has his tongue in cheek when says he was the winner so far out and that he will be a 160 chaser. Bright New Dawn is nothing special and was giving Djakadam plenty of weight when staying within a few lengths of him. He maybe a 150 horse in my eyes but he only 5 and is error prone. No chance should he be a 4/1 poke. Smad Place and Fingal Bay to fight this one out. |
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GOING: Hurdle - HEAVY (Soft in places); Chase - SOFT (Heavy in places) (GoingStick 5.1)
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thanks, in other news Denis O'Regan rides Smad Place (Tom Bellamy on Midnight Prayer for same stable)
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Really, really like Smad Place for this and have a good few bob on at 7-1 NRNB. Agree with all the comments re Djakadam... a big talking horse but a crazy price on what he has achieved and its a big step up in heavy ground.
Smad Place at 20-1 for the Gold Cup also looks great value and he could be half that by Sunday. Watched the re-run of the RSA again this morning, and it really does look top class form with the front two pulling so far clear. |
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Think Rocky Creek has a big chance and was aimed at this by Nicholls, Look at how much Silvi Conti improved after his run think same will be said about rocky seems to be Nicholls MO these days
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I bet rocky creek last year that was probably his chance 3lb higher in hcp this time and 5lb more on his back
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Rocky Creek didn`t have a prep run last year boy wonder. The race at Down Royal would be a good pipe opener for the season.
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I am in two minds on Rocky Creek. His run at Down Royal might have got him fit, but I am never keen on backing horses that have been placed in a National back over park fences.
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