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Horse Antepost
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28 Oct 14
13:54
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Date Joined:
06 Jan 05
Apologies if there is already a thread on this somewhere else but I couldn't see one. I know its going to sound a bit boring but I really like the look of Toronado in this race at 9/4 think he is the bet. They always talked about this one as being significantly better than Night of Thunder who along with Charm Spirit sets a fair level of form for the three year olds and Toronado has run to at least that level this term. The short head defeat by Charm spirit, 1L defeat to Kingman (noted in a slowly run affair) and the defeat of Anodin the Queen Anne are probably all the best bits of form on offer. Feel the horse will almost certainly run to a mark of 121-122 and for me that will be four pounds too good for anything else in the race.
The draw didn't appear to be a problem at all if anything its a positive. With no Wise Dan this race is there for the taking and the my only small concern is that Richard Hughes doesn't always seem to ride his best in these races.
However i felt that Toronado assuming he has traveled over okay should be 6/4 against this field and the AP prices were more than fair.
The draw didn't appear to be a problem at all if anything its a positive. With no Wise Dan this race is there for the taking and the my only small concern is that Richard Hughes doesn't always seem to ride his best in these races.
However i felt that Toronado assuming he has traveled over okay should be 6/4 against this field and the AP prices were more than fair.
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Replies: 33
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have to think hes better on a stiff straight mile with loads of pace, think id have lay if got silly price on here before off
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My two bets were/are Veda and Karakontie but the latter has a terrible draw. Damn it. I was going nap on Karakontie with a saver on Veda but now I think I will just split my stake. I cannot have Toronado or Anodin. I've never reall beena Toronado fan although I did back him inthe Queen Anne because it was a poor race and Anodin finished 2nd that day so I will go with these two 3 year olds where i think the price is right.
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i really like telescope think hes machine 12F on hard ground, still think the rain on the friday cost him the KG, great run in the juddmonte trained for this and great draw in 1
stoute already won the canadian international with a stone + inferior beast |
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Well I was very interested in Mr commons, who seems much improved, but draw looks dire, so my attention is switched too Tom's Tribute who also looks improved, and is proven at making up ground off a fast pace(well drawn also)
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2 x Wide drawn Breeders Cup Mile Winners;
Drawn 13 Six Perfections Drawn 11 Goldikova Just the Judge must have a chance, Dank ran Below form at Ascot-Not raced since, I cant have her. Telescope has Gr1 Turf form, Handled Chester, This track should be ok. Toronado Washed out Badly when last at York 2013, better this year although Sweated enough, He`s Never been Sharp left-handed. |
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American Pharoah
Scratced from THE JUVENILE |
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The horse that drew the best of any horse in the entire Breeders’ Cup is Goldencents.
Last year, the colt overcame a very poor post (#11) to win the Dirt Mile by 2 ¾ lengths. This year, his task will be much easier, as he drew the rail in a field of ten. Barring a disastrous start, Goldencents should have little trouble securing the early lead in the Dirt Mile, and from there, a repeat victory will most likely be the result. Although this year’s Mile has drawn a full field of fourteen, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed on paper, which could play in favor of the speedy front-runner Obviously. The six-year-old gelding drew a terrific post (#2), and with the other primary speed horses having drawn far outside, he should be able to secure his customary position on the lead and dare his rivals to chase him down. The only concern is that Obviously has shown a tendency to break slowly on occasion, and a slow start could erase whatever advantage he might have gained from his good post draw. In the Juvenile Turf, Lawn Ranger (#13) and Danny Boy (#14) definitely got the worst of the draw, especially Lawn Ranger, who has early speed and will likely find himself hung wide on the first turn. It might not matter as much for Danny Boy, who will be coming from well off the pace, but it’s still a concern. Likewise, the European fillies Prize Exhibit (#13) and Qualify (#14) will also be at a disadvantage in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. morning line favorites Untapable and Close Hatches drew posts ten and eleven in a field of eleven. As both fillies are at their best when on or close to the pace (Close Hatches especially), they may find themselves in a bit of trouble with the speedy trio of Tiz Midnight (#2), Iotapa (#3), and Belle Gallantey (#4) having drawn inside posts. So to work out good trips, Untapable and Close Hatches may have to change their running styles, and whether they can do so successfully is a bit of a question mark. |
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We already have a general Breeders Cup thread,up and running,I believe brigust made an effort to concentrate our attention on the individual races,thus not confusing everyone looking in,could we all please make an effort to post in the appropriate places.Thank you
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Now going back too this mile race.Toronado does appear the form horse, but I find it very difficult to summon up much enthusiasm for a miler from the Dawn Approach generation, I am surprised by the improvement shown by Toronado, but find myself with a mental blocker on the horse, not sure how they will ride this one, Obviously is a monster of a pace horse, and underrated in some ways going into this race, he may be capable of dictating a more controlled pace than of late?,but anyone tracking him too close will know they have had a race.
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I don't rate Toronado particularly highly - probably about 120-122 (average or so for a Group 1 animal) and I think he lacks the raw speed and acceleration to make a true champion.
That being said, I'll definitely be a backer on Saturday; for two reasons. 1) It's a very poor quality field for a Breeders Cup Mile. There are no other true Group 1 horses in the race; most of them are average French sorts. Mustajeeb has to be respected from the powerful Weld yard, but his form still brings him up some way short and I've always felt he was a horse who appreciated a slow mile to use his turn of foot off. He won't get that here. 2) Ignore all the nonsense about the pace of the race not suiting Toronado. Toronado is, and always has been, a "staying" miler who appreciates a strong/stiff test (compared to a "speed" miler like Kingman or Mustajeeb who like a slow-quick gallop). He'll get a suicidal pace to aim at here, will settle very well and will see out the mile better than most at the death. I think he's an odds-on shot here in my book and I think the only thing that gets him beat is the size of the field/being hampered. |
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Both him and Shared Belief are running against c*ap and I'd be disappointed if they didn't win comfortably.
SB has carried that air of superiority you only see with really classy horses when he's run....champion 2yr old and wisely sidestepped the triple crown after an injury earlier in the season...I suspect he's a lot better on dirt too. I'll probably play the exotics in that race as its a solid / fun race to really sink your teeth into for the places. Might side step the other races cause they look pretty open to me...like the turf for instance...flintshire pretty low...almost favourite...but he hasn't won a race for ages and it's just been one excuse after another with him but this could be his cup of tea but on the flip side ryan might turn this into a procession like he's been doing recently and we still don't know how good main sequence is.... |
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brigust Has Not started a thread in this section since Ben Hur Won @ 3/1
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sidthekid
just out of interest sid why are you more interested in horses drawn near the rail on the dirt?? i have always seen it as a negative myself...normally a lot of pace on, on the dirt so always tricky down on the rail...we will have to see how the dirt is riding but ideally i wouldn't want to be near the rail myself...middle to high for me normally...we will have to see about pace in all the races but if the pace is high i wouldn't want a rail runner myself just my opinion the last 2 winners in the mile dirt came from stall 11 (of 11) goldencents last year and stall 8 (of 9) tapizar the year before both prominent racers |
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On Dirt or Turf, if you have the Pace to get the Position you want, the Draw wont make any difference if you have enough in Hand of the opposition.
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http://www.equibase.com/premium/statsByPPMeetPDFDownload.cfm?trackID=SA&beginDate=2014-09-26
Check out these recent Santa Anita Draw Stats |
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are these stats for dirt or turf??
obviously one says turf but what distances were the turf races? you didn't answer the question sid...why do you prefer a low gate on the dirt only you were making it very clear you wanted a low drawn horse i just wanted to know your reasoning? |
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just so were not getting misunderstood i prefer a draw from stall 4-7 at the classic distance but just not low
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How would you rate Toronado against Excelebration?,In the 2012 Breeders mile,Excelebration could not pass Obviously, who had gone way too fast, but still had enough left to hold off the British challenger,now Excelebration was rated 129 at best by the official handicapper,Toronado at best rated 126,and currently only rated 121,now I am not saying he cannot win,he does look the key horse,but this would be a very poor breeders mile if he does trounce these,which looks unlikely on the ratings?
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Here is the 2012 race video,a brilliant performance by Obviously! - http://youtu.be/OjaQzlN82fg
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I hope this explains my mental blocker,with Toronado,but that was just a lesson in history,and today a perhaps lesser quality of opposition?,not sure of the official ratings given for the 2012 Breeders mile,but I estimate Excelebration ran too around 120,some 9lb below best official rating,whether Obviously and Mr Commons appear in the same form has 2012 is another matter?,but this will be no walk in the park for Toronado,or will it be?
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The Draw wont make any difference if you have enough in Hand of the opposition.
No Misunderstandings here. Obviously the other 2 rows of stats are for Dirt, Better to look at the amount of Winners rather than the %% from each particular stall, Stall 5 seems to be the "Squeeze Box" 5 Wins from 108 Starters. Sprint race distances up to 6F perhaps 7F ?, Distance races 8F+ I would have thought a Multimillion $$ company like Equibase could have been more Specific. John regarding Toronado, I was at York last year when he ran his last race, I watched him come into the Pre-Parade ring from across the racecourse stables on the other side of the track, he had been Sweating so freely they had washed him down, he had ran up "light". No matter what the Distance (10F), he was going to run a Stinker and he finished Last. He Always sweats before most of his races, apart from this "York Race" he has Never raced around a Left-Hand bend?, he has Never met a track like Santa Anita, Good Luck to him. |
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Yes Sid,I did see a picture of him working and he was sweating in that frame,this must be worry!
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Lay of the meeting, far too many negatives for this horse, no.1 being the jock..............................SEEK AGAIN shud hack up...................
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None of these 4 in the first Three.
""In the Juvenile Turf, Lawn Ranger (#13) and Danny Boy (#14) definitely got the worst of the draw, especially Lawn Ranger, who has early speed and will likely find himself hung wide on the first turn. It might not matter as much for Danny Boy, who will be coming from well off the pace, but it’s still a concern. Likewise, the European fillies Prize Exhibit (#13) and Qualify (#14) will also be at a disadvantage in the Juvenile Fillies Turf."" |
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No in-running on the breeders cup but the magic sign are having their exchange market go in-play
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Not sure about this sharp left-handed mile will be ideal for Toro.
But at 100/30 with hills this morn thats a chance worth taking at the price for me. He is the best horse in the race. GD luck with your bets 2nite lads. |
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As a rule it is not an event that interests me but I have backed Anodin.
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Bit of a contradiction that then?
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Terrible ride by Richard Hughes on Toronado. Gave the horse no chance, went a suicidal pace.
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Well done brigust and other Karakontie backers!
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WD Brigust and winners................i luv Hughsey.................
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Im off on holiday tomorrow so that was a nice send off, thanks you all.
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really disappointed with the breeders the last 2 years now...the speed bias at santa anita seems uncontrollable...
it is a shame and the sooner it is switched back to churchill downs the better imo |