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10 Oct 14
21:33
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Date Joined:
03 Jun 07
Taquin Du Seuil ran a perfect trial today, jumped very well for a different jockey and the flappig/no effort worked a treat.
Spot on for the pp.
Shame the market still have him at 9/1.
Not sure when i back him though.
Spot on for the pp.
Shame the market still have him at 9/1.
Not sure when i back him though.
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it's tricky and uncertainty over the ground come Saturday does n't help....
My first thought is I find it difficult to understand why Colour Squadron is between 2 and 6 points shorter than John's Spirit with virtually all the firms.
Market emphasis predicated around last year's renewal and John's Spirit's win over CD in October but John's Spirit could n't follow up in December Gold Cup last year off 148 and is up to 156 now.Colour Squadron recieved 2lbs from John's Spirit in both the December race and the Byrne Group Plate and beat him comfortably both times, he gets 4lbs here.
The snag is that both the races John's Spirit won were on the Old Course whereas the ones where he was bested by Colour Squadron were both on the New Course.
I still think the prices are wrong, particularly when looking at a re-run of last year's renewal - though I accept the fact that John's Spirit has won 4 chases and Colour Squadron has n't won any will have a lot to do with it - I suppose it depends whether you see Colour Squadron as unreliable or a victim of circumstances, I'm leaning towards the latter myself.
I'm not convinced of the strength of the race John's Spirit won from Persian Snow and Ericht in October, Astracad seems regressive but, then again, Workbench ran very respectably in the Badger Ales Chase at the w/e.
Yep, it's tricky and those form lines don't cover all the field anyway...
My first thought is I find it difficult to understand why Colour Squadron is between 2 and 6 points shorter than John's Spirit with virtually all the firms.
Market emphasis predicated around last year's renewal and John's Spirit's win over CD in October but John's Spirit could n't follow up in December Gold Cup last year off 148 and is up to 156 now.Colour Squadron recieved 2lbs from John's Spirit in both the December race and the Byrne Group Plate and beat him comfortably both times, he gets 4lbs here.
The snag is that both the races John's Spirit won were on the Old Course whereas the ones where he was bested by Colour Squadron were both on the New Course.
I still think the prices are wrong, particularly when looking at a re-run of last year's renewal - though I accept the fact that John's Spirit has won 4 chases and Colour Squadron has n't won any will have a lot to do with it - I suppose it depends whether you see Colour Squadron as unreliable or a victim of circumstances, I'm leaning towards the latter myself.
I'm not convinced of the strength of the race John's Spirit won from Persian Snow and Ericht in October, Astracad seems regressive but, then again, Workbench ran very respectably in the Badger Ales Chase at the w/e.
Yep, it's tricky and those form lines don't cover all the field anyway...
I just think that KAPGA DE CERISY jumped like Imperial Commander last time at Sandown and he trounced a decent enough field. I think he has been laid out for this. Aidan Coleman is locked up today. Venetia said he's in great form at home and should run a good race, they are apparently very hopeful. Missed his beloved Sundown to come here ... this has been the plan and same owner, trainer and jockey combo who missed out on running Katenko in this last year can strike. Has anyone got the RP Weekender for tomorrow at all yet guys ?
I've backed Indian Castle large ew antepost and had stake savers on Present View and Buywise
that is my short list
Kapga de Cerisy (spelling?) from Venetia was next on list but no Cheltenham experience so scrubbed
that is my short list
Kapga de Cerisy (spelling?) from Venetia was next on list but no Cheltenham experience so scrubbed
Cheers Rick, I see this has moved to I Williams from D McCain and he seems to be able to ready them FTO no problem.
Is it a slight concern that this hasn't competed in a Graded Chase at some time?
Is it a slight concern that this hasn't competed in a Graded Chase at some time?
Me neither and don't have any back stats to prove or disprove if it's of any consequence, just wondered if it was a consideration.
^yep, that time of year where the old Hendo 'in,out,in,out' okey cokey starts to kick in...
makes sense for the stable I s'pose - covers the bases in terms of going given that we know OW likes cut and Henderson states Ericht prefers good ground.
Would be a bit put off by the fact that they were n't sure he was ready for a race until yesterday's gallop - the rain now looks less likely to materialise in quantity according to latest forecast too.
Jockey bookings interesting too - Geraghty would struggle to do the weight on Ericht and might have been on one of McManus horses if OW did n't run...
In other news, Sire De Grugy is lame which surely makes it more likely that Uxizandre will rock up in the Shloer rather than here.
No nearer finding a bet but loving the intrigue!!
makes sense for the stable I s'pose - covers the bases in terms of going given that we know OW likes cut and Henderson states Ericht prefers good ground.
Would be a bit put off by the fact that they were n't sure he was ready for a race until yesterday's gallop - the rain now looks less likely to materialise in quantity according to latest forecast too.
Jockey bookings interesting too - Geraghty would struggle to do the weight on Ericht and might have been on one of McManus horses if OW did n't run...
In other news, Sire De Grugy is lame which surely makes it more likely that Uxizandre will rock up in the Shloer rather than here.
No nearer finding a bet but loving the intrigue!!
Ummmmm...
Racecourse Report Date Race Date GoingStick
Cheltenham 12 November 14 - 16 November
Chase and H: Good to Soft
Cross Country: Good Chase and H: 6.5
on Wednesday at 15:00
Archived Going Stick readings for Cheltenham :
25-Jan-14 Heavy (Soft in places) 6.3
Racecourse Report Date Race Date GoingStick
Cheltenham 12 November 14 - 16 November
Chase and H: Good to Soft
Cross Country: Good Chase and H: 6.5
on Wednesday at 15:00
Archived Going Stick readings for Cheltenham :
25-Jan-14 Heavy (Soft in places) 6.3
Cheltenham / Fri 14 Nov
Updated @ Wed 12 Nov
Going/Track
Chase and Hurdle Good to Soft. Cross Country Good. (GoingStick: Chase and hurdle 6.5 on Wednesday at 15:00)
Weather
8mm of rain in past 48 hours. Rain on Thursday evening (4 to 5mm), and a wet day Friday (10 to 12mm).
Updated @ Wed 12 Nov
Going/Track
Chase and Hurdle Good to Soft. Cross Country Good. (GoingStick: Chase and hurdle 6.5 on Wednesday at 15:00)
Weather
8mm of rain in past 48 hours. Rain on Thursday evening (4 to 5mm), and a wet day Friday (10 to 12mm).
I think we can assume, on the basis of all that data, that it is going to be soft ground at best with the emphasis on stamina and fitness. Good luck to all horses that haven't had a run this season imvhavho.
A lot of rain about, i reckon it will be soft and testing.
going stick reading for last year's renewal was 7.5 with description of Good (G/S in places)
Very content with my 25/1 Persian Snow now that it seems as if he will run. Just watched his runs in the Novice at Cheltenham in March and his October run again and would make the following comments.
1. In March he was still a bit novicey jumping partly because he seemed to be just struggling with the early pace and probably quicker ground than he likes. He was still sixth despite being squeezed on the final bend and losing several lengths and a big mistake at the last which finished him.
2. In October his jumping was significantly better with the only error at the second last first time round. He made good progress down the hill and looked the winner until you look back at John's Spirit who tracked him most of the way and beat him a comfortable length with the rest well beaten.
3. He is better off with John's Spirit (5 lb), Buywise (11 lb) Present View (4 lb) and Attaglance (3 lb) from those 2 runs.
If you take the novice race, he still has quite a bit to find with Present View and Attaglance but I think he has the most scope for improvement of any of the above and he is the longest price.
1. In March he was still a bit novicey jumping partly because he seemed to be just struggling with the early pace and probably quicker ground than he likes. He was still sixth despite being squeezed on the final bend and losing several lengths and a big mistake at the last which finished him.
2. In October his jumping was significantly better with the only error at the second last first time round. He made good progress down the hill and looked the winner until you look back at John's Spirit who tracked him most of the way and beat him a comfortable length with the rest well beaten.
3. He is better off with John's Spirit (5 lb), Buywise (11 lb) Present View (4 lb) and Attaglance (3 lb) from those 2 runs.
If you take the novice race, he still has quite a bit to find with Present View and Attaglance but I think he has the most scope for improvement of any of the above and he is the longest price.
Why do you think he has the most scope for improvement Sage?
Because he is a big backward type that took a long time to get his jumping sorted while most of the opposition are seasoned handicappers. I realise that I may be using rose coloured spectacles but don't we all when we fancy one.
watching the October race back, Ericht got slightly squeezed out on the home turn and Geraghty was n't at all hard on him in the straight.
NJH stated in his stable tour that Ericht loves decent ground but both his form and his pedigree both suggest soft should suit.
I thought John's Spirit beat Persian Snow a bit cosily but ground and weight swing might help Persian Snow turn it around,price disparity between the two seems big certainly...
NJH stated in his stable tour that Ericht loves decent ground but both his form and his pedigree both suggest soft should suit.
I thought John's Spirit beat Persian Snow a bit cosily but ground and weight swing might help Persian Snow turn it around,price disparity between the two seems big certainly...
The "clock race" is Present View`s at Cheltenham March 11th 2014 and includes the aforementioned,Buywise,Attaglance,Persian Snow and Ericht.
Will back them all each-way except Buywise who appears poorly handicapped.Hope I don`t regret this decision.
Will back them all each-way except Buywise who appears poorly handicapped.Hope I don`t regret this decision.
Buywise looks poorly handicapped to me too, not sure why he's as short as he is
I thought Persian Snow was potentially top class in his bumpers days but for whatever reason things have not gone entirely in that direction. He is actually more exposed and older than several of his rivals in the race, hence why I asked about having more scope because I couldn't really see it. But I guess you could argue he is now the finished article and in his pomp whereas some others still have many years ahead of them, e.g Present View is 6 with 3 wins from 5 chase starts, PS is 8 with 2 wins from 9 starts. It wouldn't be a surprise if Hobbsy won the race, master trainer that he is!
only on the balance of probability, the winner should have most of these characteristics:-
a 6 or 7 year old
won a chase at Cheltenham
won at 2 and a half miles
won at class 2 at least
had less than 10 chases
rated 140 to 149
Present View
Buywise
Indian Castle
the only 3 that fit all of those
a 6 or 7 year old
won a chase at Cheltenham
won at 2 and a half miles
won at class 2 at least
had less than 10 chases
rated 140 to 149
Present View
Buywise
Indian Castle
the only 3 that fit all of those
Buywise will be staying on but his form is littered with him making mistakes and I just don't see him being able to hold a position and he may end up with too much ground to make up.
Still happy with Present View at 10/1 - might put up,an in running lay at around 2/1 just in case.
Still happy with Present View at 10/1 - might put up,an in running lay at around 2/1 just in case.
Judorick. Don't see the relevance of 'had less than 10 chases'
Buywise needs to improve his jumping, he may well win but I cannot back him hoping he doesnt make too many mistakes.
Facts
Judorick. Don't see the relevance of 'had less than 10 chases'
Basically an unexposed horse Facts. In the last 10yrs 81 such horses ran. No wins and just 6 places. None made the places in the last four years.
Judorick. Don't see the relevance of 'had less than 10 chases'
Basically an unexposed horse Facts. In the last 10yrs 81 such horses ran. No wins and just 6 places. None made the places in the last four years.
Sint, I take the point about his age but Persian Snow has taken a long time to mature. He reminds me of another big favourite of mine, Parsnip Pete, who was frustrating for a couple of years because he kept missing fences but is now blossoming into a top class horse.
PJay, don't bother, if they can't 'see' it themselves on here then it must be totally irrelevant info
Spent many hours over past week looking for value and have opted for a slightly safe play in what looks a very open race. Cant avoid the race so have gone for Present View @ 6/1 EW 5 places with the sponsor. Just cannot see him out of first 5 and think he has a great win chance. Nothing earth shattering but feels a balanced bet in a tough handicap.
ive had a small play on OW I just think that quality will prevail on the day
Cheltenham / Fri 14 Nov
Updated @ Fri 14 Nov
Going/Track
Chase and Hurdle Soft, good to soft in places. Cross Country Good, good to soft in places. (GoingStick: Chase and hurdle 6.5 on Wednesday at 15:00)
Rails: Rail moved out two yards since the October meeting adding twelve yards per circuit.
Weather
7mm overnight,(Still raining), rain clearing by mid morning, dry afternoon with sunny spells.
Updated @ Fri 14 Nov
Going/Track
Chase and Hurdle Soft, good to soft in places. Cross Country Good, good to soft in places. (GoingStick: Chase and hurdle 6.5 on Wednesday at 15:00)
Rails: Rail moved out two yards since the October meeting adding twelve yards per circuit.
Weather
7mm overnight,(Still raining), rain clearing by mid morning, dry afternoon with sunny spells.
Dry afternoon with sunny spells.
Shame you cannot back against this.
Soft going, what a surprise
Shame you cannot back against this.
Soft going, what a surprise
buywise has a huge chance imo
i reckon that his jumping is the only possible negative he came to win the race at Chelt behind present view but a bad blunder cost him about 8 lengths still managed to stay on well into 5th........now if the sun shines brightly he wont have to jump those last 2 fences
i reckon that his jumping is the only possible negative he came to win the race at Chelt behind present view but a bad blunder cost him about 8 lengths still managed to stay on well into 5th........now if the sun shines brightly he wont have to jump those last 2 fences
Stable form not too shabby either Sint. Plenty in PS's favour but no doubt something will go wrong. My record with ante post bets is dreadful.
Ataglance non runner, ground officially Soft (G/S places) - described by Richard Johnson after winning on Champagne West as soft,heavy in places...
Attaglance a non runner so the "clock race" is down to x4 so I will back Buywise e-w as well.
so with a third of the fences omitted doesnt buywise possible jumping issues become less of a problem and ericht at 20/1 is interesting you could find the sun is a more significant factor than the ground...
I not happy with way they have handled the low sun issue, im betting on a race over a certain distance with a certain amount of fences, if they do omit some fences tomorrow i will demand my money back.
It's very difficult. Very, very difficult. Especially as at this stage we don't know how many fences they will be jumping. The market is following the trends.
But my bet is Cantlow, e/w @ 20/1, 5 places. (betfair sportsbook and powers doing refunds for fallers). With a good round of jumping this one will be right there, and can be expected to fly up the hill. I'd ignore his last run.
But my bet is Cantlow, e/w @ 20/1, 5 places. (betfair sportsbook and powers doing refunds for fallers). With a good round of jumping this one will be right there, and can be expected to fly up the hill. I'd ignore his last run.
Really like Indian Castle. Dont understand why it has been moved from Mccain?
Mccain's comments pre festival was that 140 was a very fair mark which it still runs off tomorrow
Mccain's comments pre festival was that 140 was a very fair mark which it still runs off tomorrow
The move is a strange one. Didn't see any explanation. Would be shorter in the market if he was with a bigger name NH trainer.
I Williams is a good trainer,lots of big race wins on flat and jumps
Hoping Oscar shows his class today, and if he jumps well I really fancy him....10's could look very nice later.
Just wish I knew how fit he is,still the price is worth it imo.
Just wish I knew how fit he is,still the price is worth it imo.
So after hours of studying i am none the wiser, it has to be one of worst thomas pinks ever.
Siding with oscar whiskey & present view at the moment, need to see what the ground is like first. Also Hobbs could have a good day.
good luck all.
Siding with oscar whiskey & present view at the moment, need to see what the ground is like first. Also Hobbs could have a good day.
good luck all.
3 miles too far mate,horse is a classic in between distances.
this really is a tough handicap to solve
the 2 market principals come here after a perfect prep...buywise who will like this ground is the pick of the 2 for me but his jumping really is an issue, he has to go well but the price is a tough one to stomach, especially considering he got hit 12lbs(what a feck up by the the connections) for beating the exposed astracad at the back end of last season, i just wonder whether that will be his undoing here in a more competitive race...
i have a lot of time for present view but i just wonder how much more is to come, he won a competitive renewal of the jewson and the thing i like about him is his gameness he loves it and finds when asked for more...up 7 for that win at cheltenham he looks like he may of come on this season however, i just wonder whether he has the class and is vulnerable to such a runner...he has every chance though but once again the 7-1 on offer is scrape the barrel stuff for this admirable horse
many others that have a squeak caid de berlais is an in and out sort but could be given a chance on his runs in big hurdle races, better ground would suit more but still has a very workable mark imo, a nice race is in him i just can't figure out where yet...indian castle is short in the betting and has been punted, struggling with this one myself but i suppose he is only up 5lbs for beating annacotty at the track, he may have a chance but that was a mixed bag race imo and i'd want a proper price in order considering him, just a tricky horse for me to get an angle on tbf and i haven't got a solid mark i think he is capable of, so am happy to watch him and reevaluate after this race
other horses persian snow is a likeable horse who just has his limitations, he maybe able to run a place but seems to find a limited amount when let down but i don't dislike him, i just wonder if he can improve, i have my reservations but he at least looks like he will run his race even though he is quite exposed... easter meteor is a trainer change and might go well, he was running well off a mark of 140 in this last year 8lbs more this time makes it tough but if the trainer can find a bit more he may go well 13-1 on here is much less than we should be getting but the trainer change is clearly the reason, he still has a chequered profile and a mark of 148 doesn't look particularly workable to me but you never know
johns spirit really is becoming a track specialist and although high in the weights he is clearly an early season type who loves the course...some people must love this creature and he once again bounced back with a career high first time back, he has 9lbs for the privilege but he continues to improve, respected and if he can win off 159 if will be a monumental effort from all concerned
i have had oscar whisky down as a small field bully for a while but i just wonder whether i have got him wrong, it is just that small fields are what he has been put up against...i just have a feeling he is the play here against a majority of exposed handicappers...he will like the ground and he is only a second season chaser who appears well each year early season...the other one who i believe will run well is cantlow at a price he ran a sneaky good race last time
a tough race and i have backed 8...the front 3 in the market will be a poor result for me best of luck in a mine field imo
the 2 market principals come here after a perfect prep...buywise who will like this ground is the pick of the 2 for me but his jumping really is an issue, he has to go well but the price is a tough one to stomach, especially considering he got hit 12lbs(what a feck up by the the connections) for beating the exposed astracad at the back end of last season, i just wonder whether that will be his undoing here in a more competitive race...
i have a lot of time for present view but i just wonder how much more is to come, he won a competitive renewal of the jewson and the thing i like about him is his gameness he loves it and finds when asked for more...up 7 for that win at cheltenham he looks like he may of come on this season however, i just wonder whether he has the class and is vulnerable to such a runner...he has every chance though but once again the 7-1 on offer is scrape the barrel stuff for this admirable horse
many others that have a squeak caid de berlais is an in and out sort but could be given a chance on his runs in big hurdle races, better ground would suit more but still has a very workable mark imo, a nice race is in him i just can't figure out where yet...indian castle is short in the betting and has been punted, struggling with this one myself but i suppose he is only up 5lbs for beating annacotty at the track, he may have a chance but that was a mixed bag race imo and i'd want a proper price in order considering him, just a tricky horse for me to get an angle on tbf and i haven't got a solid mark i think he is capable of, so am happy to watch him and reevaluate after this race
other horses persian snow is a likeable horse who just has his limitations, he maybe able to run a place but seems to find a limited amount when let down but i don't dislike him, i just wonder if he can improve, i have my reservations but he at least looks like he will run his race even though he is quite exposed... easter meteor is a trainer change and might go well, he was running well off a mark of 140 in this last year 8lbs more this time makes it tough but if the trainer can find a bit more he may go well 13-1 on here is much less than we should be getting but the trainer change is clearly the reason, he still has a chequered profile and a mark of 148 doesn't look particularly workable to me but you never know
johns spirit really is becoming a track specialist and although high in the weights he is clearly an early season type who loves the course...some people must love this creature and he once again bounced back with a career high first time back, he has 9lbs for the privilege but he continues to improve, respected and if he can win off 159 if will be a monumental effort from all concerned
i have had oscar whisky down as a small field bully for a while but i just wonder whether i have got him wrong, it is just that small fields are what he has been put up against...i just have a feeling he is the play here against a majority of exposed handicappers...he will like the ground and he is only a second season chaser who appears well each year early season...the other one who i believe will run well is cantlow at a price he ran a sneaky good race last time
a tough race and i have backed 8...the front 3 in the market will be a poor result for me best of luck in a mine field imo
Re Oscar Whisky, Barry did say yesterday that he's vulnerable on his first run. Said you wouldn't want him 100% at this stage of the season.
Surprised there's not a bit more love for Caid Du Berlais. Just a 5yo but he's run and placed in two Festival handicaps, placed at Aintree and ran a sound race in the Galway Plate. It's said you need 10lb to win the Paddy Power and this lad is 8lbs lower than his hurdle rating, with improvement to come. He placed in the Martin Pipe off this mark and Paul was giving it out as his bet of the meeting beforehand. Ground might be a question and he doesn't seem to have been campaigned with this race in mind but Paul will have him ready.
Surprised there's not a bit more love for Caid Du Berlais. Just a 5yo but he's run and placed in two Festival handicaps, placed at Aintree and ran a sound race in the Galway Plate. It's said you need 10lb to win the Paddy Power and this lad is 8lbs lower than his hurdle rating, with improvement to come. He placed in the Martin Pipe off this mark and Paul was giving it out as his bet of the meeting beforehand. Ground might be a question and he doesn't seem to have been campaigned with this race in mind but Paul will have him ready.
yeh,fitness would be my main concern re Oscar.
I don't have a major problem with his jumping as long as its a fair pace which I imagine it will be, and this small fields nonsense is exactly that...nonsense, hes ran well in plenty of hurdle races with fair sized fields.
I don't have a major problem with his jumping as long as its a fair pace which I imagine it will be, and this small fields nonsense is exactly that...nonsense, hes ran well in plenty of hurdle races with fair sized fields.
re oscar whisky off the lay off
6 races - won 4...the other 2 times upsides at the last when he would of won and the other when beaten 3/4 length first time over fences last year in a farce of a race on chase debut...you could argue he has a very good record when fresh off the lay off
6 races - won 4...the other 2 times upsides at the last when he would of won and the other when beaten 3/4 length first time over fences last year in a farce of a race on chase debut...you could argue he has a very good record when fresh off the lay off
yeh,its just the vibes from connections harry.
Mind you I don't usually take a lot of notice of their comments, and I have backed him today,so I guess I aint taking much notice this time
although I do tend to respect what BG has to say.
Mind you I don't usually take a lot of notice of their comments, and I have backed him today,so I guess I aint taking much notice this time
although I do tend to respect what BG has to say.
we will see budd...he isn't getting any younger, that is my main concern but also think they aren't a great bunch and he has a good record fresh...really it's just how much ability is left, if it is still there, he has to go well...tight race tbf from a handicapping point of view, should be a good race
I agree about the degree of difficulty. I have three running for me. Cantlow,Persian Snow and Oscar Whisky.
harry callaghan
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
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15 Nov 14 11:00 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 3,204 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
a tough race and i have backed 8...
For once someone has backed more runners than me
I completely agree re Oscar and think he could be thrown in here, trip ideal, ground ideal, price spot on imo whats not to like
Also done Buywise (AP 8/1) Indian Castle, Easter Meteor, Caid Du Berlais, Persian Snow, Kapga De Cerisy with persian being my jackpot horsey
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
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15 Nov 14 11:00 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 3,204 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
a tough race and i have backed 8...
For once someone has backed more runners than me
I completely agree re Oscar and think he could be thrown in here, trip ideal, ground ideal, price spot on imo whats not to like
Also done Buywise (AP 8/1) Indian Castle, Easter Meteor, Caid Du Berlais, Persian Snow, Kapga De Cerisy with persian being my jackpot horsey
yep, I've come down on the side of the Henderson pair ew with a saver on Present View whose chance is obvious.
The points about OW form first time out are well made, he'll love the ground, won't mind if they have to jump less fences (though that looks less likely now)and I read he's had a breathing op in the summer - I think all BJG was saying yesterday was that they just won't know if he needs it until the race, slightly disconcerting that they only made their minds up on Wed but c'est la vie.
Good luck!
The points about OW form first time out are well made, he'll love the ground, won't mind if they have to jump less fences (though that looks less likely now)and I read he's had a breathing op in the summer - I think all BJG was saying yesterday was that they just won't know if he needs it until the race, slightly disconcerting that they only made their minds up on Wed but c'est la vie.
Good luck!
Oscar Whiskey – Top weight, big field, fto and he might not be fully fit. Is he going to run a 165 here? No.
Johns Spirit – Surely too high in handicap now, he is a very good horse when he gets a good run at them from off the pace up the hill. But weight stops them all and it’ll stop him too in this ground.
Edgardo Sol – He would prefer better ground and I think he’s handicapped up to his ability at 150, could run a few times to lower that mark between now and the Plate at the festival
Champion Court – Dropped a little bit in the ratings but still 149 is a mark higher than he can win off on soft ground. He’s just not very good tbh.
Kapga De Cerisy – Hasn’t been seen for a year since spanking up off 10lbs lower mark at Sandown. Danger as he did that fto last season and will like the ground here.
Easter Meteor – I have no idea if the plan is to lose and lower his mark or of he’s fully going for it here, then in Dec, then in Plate at festival. He’ll win a big one for Pipe, I think it’ll not be today though.
Shanpallas – Hmm really think this is a throw him in and see how he does scenario. Trip should be too short but can’t be dismissed.
Cantlow – I think he has every chance here 1lb lower than when 2nd in Dec last year, he’s been dropped 4lbs for his total non effort under Geraghty lto which seems to be a good earner for Barry. Making sure horses don’t win races for JP.
Eastlake – 2m4f soft ground has always meant to be his conditions. Obvious prep lto and now wears a tongue tie. He stayed the 2m5f in the Topham but he’s 6lbs higher than his best winning mark. Will run a solid race as always so fine e/w punt for some.
Buywise – Look he’s been talked up, he’s too short would it surprise me if he won. No, but there’s no value in his price.
Present View – At the festival Pendra would have beaten him if he’d not blundered the last, Attaglance would have beaten him had he not had to switch outside. Also a horse who has no value in his price.
Caid Du Berlais – A horse I like and a horse I wanted to back for this if it was good ground. But I don’t know what or why he was entered in a graduation the other week and pulled because of the ground. If this had always been the target I’d be confident. I’m backig him but am slightly worried this is an afterthought. a why not run.
Persian Snow – I like him, he ran very well over course and distance last month, only up a few lbs for that. Stable in flying form. Got a low weight, all his wins are over this trip in this or worse ground and no wins were fto so he improves for his runs. He’s the pick of these.
Indian Castle – Young and possibly improving he won on heavy ground at Cheltenham in Jan. Blundered badly when beaten at the festival. Not to be underestimated
Cedre Bleu – Could run decent like he did in Jan when 2nd in heavy over 21f at the track. Nicholls deemed him not good enough to stay in the yard so I’d think he’ll need to be dropped some in h/c and upped in trip before he gets a win
Ericht – Off his current mark he’ll win a big pot, but he’d prefer better ground. Henderson thought he was one of his best chances of a winner at the festival but ran no race. He’s on such a low weight and I know this has been his aim so he’ll be carrying my money here.
Shortlist – Kapga De Cerisy, Cantlow, Eastlake, Caid Du Berlais, Persian Snow, Ericht
Selections - Persian Snow, Ericht, Cantlow e/w
Johns Spirit – Surely too high in handicap now, he is a very good horse when he gets a good run at them from off the pace up the hill. But weight stops them all and it’ll stop him too in this ground.
Edgardo Sol – He would prefer better ground and I think he’s handicapped up to his ability at 150, could run a few times to lower that mark between now and the Plate at the festival
Champion Court – Dropped a little bit in the ratings but still 149 is a mark higher than he can win off on soft ground. He’s just not very good tbh.
Kapga De Cerisy – Hasn’t been seen for a year since spanking up off 10lbs lower mark at Sandown. Danger as he did that fto last season and will like the ground here.
Easter Meteor – I have no idea if the plan is to lose and lower his mark or of he’s fully going for it here, then in Dec, then in Plate at festival. He’ll win a big one for Pipe, I think it’ll not be today though.
Shanpallas – Hmm really think this is a throw him in and see how he does scenario. Trip should be too short but can’t be dismissed.
Cantlow – I think he has every chance here 1lb lower than when 2nd in Dec last year, he’s been dropped 4lbs for his total non effort under Geraghty lto which seems to be a good earner for Barry. Making sure horses don’t win races for JP.
Eastlake – 2m4f soft ground has always meant to be his conditions. Obvious prep lto and now wears a tongue tie. He stayed the 2m5f in the Topham but he’s 6lbs higher than his best winning mark. Will run a solid race as always so fine e/w punt for some.
Buywise – Look he’s been talked up, he’s too short would it surprise me if he won. No, but there’s no value in his price.
Present View – At the festival Pendra would have beaten him if he’d not blundered the last, Attaglance would have beaten him had he not had to switch outside. Also a horse who has no value in his price.
Caid Du Berlais – A horse I like and a horse I wanted to back for this if it was good ground. But I don’t know what or why he was entered in a graduation the other week and pulled because of the ground. If this had always been the target I’d be confident. I’m backig him but am slightly worried this is an afterthought. a why not run.
Persian Snow – I like him, he ran very well over course and distance last month, only up a few lbs for that. Stable in flying form. Got a low weight, all his wins are over this trip in this or worse ground and no wins were fto so he improves for his runs. He’s the pick of these.
Indian Castle – Young and possibly improving he won on heavy ground at Cheltenham in Jan. Blundered badly when beaten at the festival. Not to be underestimated
Cedre Bleu – Could run decent like he did in Jan when 2nd in heavy over 21f at the track. Nicholls deemed him not good enough to stay in the yard so I’d think he’ll need to be dropped some in h/c and upped in trip before he gets a win
Ericht – Off his current mark he’ll win a big pot, but he’d prefer better ground. Henderson thought he was one of his best chances of a winner at the festival but ran no race. He’s on such a low weight and I know this has been his aim so he’ll be carrying my money here.
Shortlist – Kapga De Cerisy, Cantlow, Eastlake, Caid Du Berlais, Persian Snow, Ericht
Selections - Persian Snow, Ericht, Cantlow e/w
Oh forgot to say, worst renewal of the race I've ever bet on.
going for Oscar whiskey each way, class act has top weight but has earned it , and decent form over fences beat tarquin de seual over a similar trip will do for me !
Nice write up CVByrne. Wouldn't disagree with any of that.
If I'm any good at reading body language at all I'd say David Pipe thinks he has improved Easter Meteor quite a bit.
went for Present View...nice win at the festival and a solid prep run last time.
Not sure Persian Snow improves for a run tbh. Two of his second runs of the season (last 2 recent seasons) he's been beaten 29 & 30 lengths. Think he would have been pretty fit last time out as it was an easier race to win. What he does have in his favour is the ground with a low racing weight, and stable form.
He won his bumper fto as well.
Sticking with Present View ante-post anyway, not confident about anything in this one!
Sticking with Present View ante-post anyway, not confident about anything in this one!
Done Cantlow 25/1 and Cedre Bleue 50/1 Ew. Both have sniffs on old form and fair prices.
Chuffed with that. Would have been gutted had I let him go unbacked and he'd won having backed him so much last season and having fancied him for this race for ages. The ground and the entering him in that graduation chase the other week threw me.
Surprised there's not a bit more love for Caid Du Berlais. Just a 5yo but he's run and placed in two Festival handicaps, placed at Aintree and ran a sound race in the Galway Plate. It's said you need 10lb to win the Paddy Power and this lad is 8lbs lower than his hurdle rating, with improvement to come. He placed in the Martin Pipe off this mark and Paul was giving it out as his bet of the meeting beforehand. Ground might be a question and he doesn't seem to have been campaigned with this race in mind but Paul will have him ready.
Geraghty would have won if he got at his horse earlier.
The form looks solid with the winner being highly touted by PFN since he came over from France. Johns Spirit & Present view both very liable over the c&d. I wonder if backers of JS think McClernon coming wide cost him? Dunno tbh.
Persian Snow was outclassed.
Quite surprised to see Ericht finish 10th, he was bang there two out and his finishing position does not do his effort justice. Thought he ran really well on unsuitable ground.
Persian Snow was outclassed.
Quite surprised to see Ericht finish 10th, he was bang there two out and his finishing position does not do his effort justice. Thought he ran really well on unsuitable ground.
Ericht made bad mistake Sint and looked to wind him. Already my mind is on good ground in Spring for him like Triolo D'Alene a couple of seasons ago.
Johns Spirit could have done with a faster pace. Came full of running to take the lead, too soon really, as he doesn't do a lot in front. Had the others beat. Very unlucky imo.
Yep it was a smashin effort conceding 13lb, could be Ryanair class.
Yeah has to be Ryanair now. He needs the fast pace so slower smaller field graded races wouldn't suit.
I think Caid Du Berlias as a 5yo has buckets of improvement to cone. Have long been a fan of the hose and think he'll improve for for 3 miles next season
I think Caid Du Berlias as a 5yo has buckets of improvement to cone. Have long been a fan of the hose and think he'll improve for for 3 miles next season
Present View needs to be ridden more aggressively to make the most of his jumping - I guess on that ground they felt they had to take it a bit easy. On better ground he could jump the opposition into the ground.
The Topham looks tailor made for him.
The Topham looks tailor made for him.
Well done CV. I seem to remember you liked him a lot last season and put him up a few times for various races, faith rewarded.
He's turning into a bit of a course specialist, 2nd in the Fred Winter, 3rd in the Martin Pipe and won today.
He's turning into a bit of a course specialist, 2nd in the Fred Winter, 3rd in the Martin Pipe and won today.
Well done to CDB backers.
Strangely i have backed him in every race he has run in the uk and some antepost markets before, I thought he would struggle to last home on the ground. Never mind got my money back on 3rd & 4th.
I thought Oscar Whiskey ran a blinder and jumped well apart from the mistake he made 3 out when the pace was just quickening, think he would had gone very close but for that.
Strangely i have backed him in every race he has run in the uk and some antepost markets before, I thought he would struggle to last home on the ground. Never mind got my money back on 3rd & 4th.
I thought Oscar Whiskey ran a blinder and jumped well apart from the mistake he made 3 out when the pace was just quickening, think he would had gone very close but for that.
Cheers Tucho, yes I actually put him up for the JLT Nov chase then again for the Martin Pipe. I also backed him in 2 chases last season and the Galway Plate. So yes very much a fan, I'd have been pretty crushed had I not backed him here. It was the ground concerns, the Graduation Chase entry and n/r due to ground which had me indecisive. Anyway no big bets this year just three £20 ones & an e/w
I think Caid Du Berlais should be making all in a Ryanair tbh. He was excellent out front on his debut chase a year ago when allowed to go on.
I think Caid Du Berlais should be making all in a Ryanair tbh. He was excellent out front on his debut chase a year ago when allowed to go on.
wel done CV, other CdB backers - he was never really on my radar I'm afraid, escaped unscathed though due to OW and PV, surprised OW went off so short given there was 11/1 readily available this morning.
Anyway the key things I learned today (or rather was reminde off today) are that:
1. Even a experienced horseman like Nicholls and a young upcoming jockey like STD who has been surrounded by horses all his life are guessing to a large extent when assessing their charges ability to act on certain types of going - I assume they'de seen something in his action or previous racecourse performances that made them think he might not act on it, the sire and damsire stats on soft and heavy are actually perfectly acceptable.
2. PFN might not have a superstar chaser just now (perhaps Conti fans would argue differently) but he has plenty of progressive chasers and still up there with the very best in preparing and placing 'em...
3. Only seen the race on my phone so need to watch it back but STD is perfectly capable of getting the job done with the right ammunition.
Don't really fancy Conti next week though...
Anyway the key things I learned today (or rather was reminde off today) are that:
1. Even a experienced horseman like Nicholls and a young upcoming jockey like STD who has been surrounded by horses all his life are guessing to a large extent when assessing their charges ability to act on certain types of going - I assume they'de seen something in his action or previous racecourse performances that made them think he might not act on it, the sire and damsire stats on soft and heavy are actually perfectly acceptable.
2. PFN might not have a superstar chaser just now (perhaps Conti fans would argue differently) but he has plenty of progressive chasers and still up there with the very best in preparing and placing 'em...
3. Only seen the race on my phone so need to watch it back but STD is perfectly capable of getting the job done with the right ammunition.
Don't really fancy Conti next week though...
A few got Oscar and Johns spirit wrong on here.
Both cracking performances,and had Oscar not hit 3rd last would have gone very close,and JS did go very close and his jockey will be regretting hitting the front too early.
Both cracking performances,and had Oscar not hit 3rd last would have gone very close,and JS did go very close and his jockey will be regretting hitting the front too early.
CDB near on a stone less than OW and JS, I know which I would rather back in a Ryanair.
Agree budd, very eye taking from JS. Can't see CDB being good enough for a Ryanair at all tbh, not this season anyway.
Yeh mate,must admit I was one that got JS all wrong,just could not see him beating OW on level weights let alone some of the others!!
Hes announced himself in top races at that distance,so has Oscar.
Hes announced himself in top races at that distance,so has Oscar.
I got the race very wrong apart from thinking that the Johns Spirit/Persian Snow form was key. PS ran very poorly in the end and just how far JS would have beaten him last time if ridden out is an interesting question. The one thing that I have always believed but forgot yesterday was that Paul Nicholls's form improves in direct correlation to the prize money on offer! I would not have backed Sam Winner with free money and admit to overlooking Caid du Berlay entirely. My only winner at Cheltenham yesterday was Bitofapuzzle as I thought that the money for the Mullins runner was a "lemming" affect.
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