~ Breeders Cup 2014 ~

Sentient Jet Juvenile

FrontRunner Stakes, American Pharoah - http://youtu.be/NlqzeGJerbs

Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, Carpe Diem - http://youtu.be/_M9ELPuOCQI

Champagne Stakes, Daredevil - http://youtu.be/J8m3FAiXsgg

Race of the meeting ,just hope they all make the party.

Euro Charlene Lame
http://sdhorserace.com/2014/10/06/euro-charlene-out-of-q-e-ii-bone-bruise-sidelines-beverly-d-winner/

BC Turf

I never thought i would be saying this?, but Telescope looks primed without Australia and co.

Is he definitely travelling?

Just found a notebook comment from May for Midnight Lucky, who I had presumed would go for the Distaff, but goes for the F&M sprint. She put in a very impressive comeback run in May but hasn't run since.

Wise Dan misses the Breeders Cup. Shame. Surely Europe has a miler decent enough to take the crown?

^^Yes Toronado

He looks made for Santa Anita, fast ground, two tight bends...cruise, stalk & quicken up. The Americans have very little to offer without Wise Dan.

Toronado will prove too good.

Had a little bit of interest on Outstrip for the mile on here a few wks ago (17.0)
Already tried & tested over their (won last yrs 2yo turf mile) horse needs fast ground & a fast pace to show his best imo & i believe he has been trained with this target in mind.

Does anybody know what the chances of Night Of Thunder running in the Dirt Mile are?

Answer appreciated ASAP as I wish to savage all of the 9/1 on offer should a run in the BC DM be the likely option.

Many thanks in advance,

KeMoH

Would not have thought so K ^^^^
Personally think the QEII this Sat at Ascot is the main aim.
Fancy him to win that myself.
Not an ideal prep for the B Cup tho, tough race on soft/heavy ground & the B Cup only 2wks away.

The Pharaoh is out and Daredevil is still 3/1. Draw not ideal but still think that's value.

Trouble with the breeders cup is that all the horses running are either at a disadvantage or are doped on lasix and bute.

So you have to try to find out which is the horse in each race that goes best when doped or which trainer is the most adept at doping.

I personally would never back another horse in American racing until they clean up their act.

magician out of the turf lame.

maybe the filly wants left handed track after all her RH antics. wouldn't fancy being drawn outside her

My first day plans,


Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf - WET SAIL e/w (looks value,form possibly underrated?)
Breeders´ Cup Dirt Mile - BIG BANE THEORY e/w  (like price,realistically a place is best hope from a poor draw?)
Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - SUNSET GLOW win (trip just about perfect,tough it out)
Longines Breeders´ Cup Distaff - UNBRIDLED FOREVER e/w (just a big price,better than odds suggest?)

R6 4
R7 1
R8 3
R9 1

Thoughts on tonight from someone who watches US racing once a year!

9.25 – Juvenile Turf – Hootenanny can’t stay a mile after blitzing up over 5f at Ascot and running out of steam at Deauville last time. War Envoy has been beaten every race since his maiden and no reason to suspect he’ll suddenly win here. First 3 in the betting on the US tote have a dire record in this race, suggesting those at the head of the betting are often overbet/overhyped and we should look to the equally promising/unexposed hosses a bit further down. Place lay those two. Commemorative has to be a danger, but the US team have a couple of aces with IMPERIA and STARTUP NATION. Imperia beat Startup Nation last time having been held up and then motored down the outside to win comfortably. In Startup Nation’s last two races he’s been held up for a smooth move 2f out and won his penultimate start in good style beating a next time out winner, and last time got a poor trip through the last 1.5f. With the likely red-hot pace on here with Hootenanny being very speedy, Commemorative racing prominently, and Luck Of The Kitten also being on the speed, Imperia and Startup Nation’s styles might well see them to great effect here. The worry is a possible speed bias on the dirt, so if those held up don’t get into it then bear that in mind for later races. TRIFECTA: IMPERIA, STARTUP NATION, COMMEMORATIVE

10.05 – Dirt Mile – GOLDENCENTS the only true Grade 1 hoss in the field and is flexible tactically. Fed Biz was probably flattered by his proximity to Classic favourite Shared Belief last time given the trouble Shared Belief had to overcome. Not many bankers this year but Goldencents should be one of the jollies to go in.

10.50 – Fillies Turf – Difficult. Sunset Glow got a weird ride at Ascot and won comfortably next twice. Form of her Ascot race is good and she’s a very likely winner for me but hard to be too confident given the strength of this race. RAINHA DE BATERIA got a tough trip behind Partisan Politics in her penultimate start but won comfortably next time beating Quality Rocks who possibly went on too soon there and reopposes here. Doesn’t seem to be that much between the American hosses here except Sunset Glow as a standout on form. RETIREMENT TRIFECTA: SUNSET GLOW, RAINHA DE BATERIA, QUALITY ROCKS.

11.35 – Distaff – Plenty of speed likely here, and the front three in the market look standout clear. Close Hatches is not well drawn though and you must forgive a beating by DON’T TELL SOPHIA last time to back her. Close Hatches and Ria Antonia seemed to take each other on for the lead last time and a similar battle for the lead could play out here with a few who like to front run, so Don’t Tell Sophia has to be each way value at 8/1, hopefully jockey doesn’t overdo the waiting on her. REVERSE FORECAST: UNTAPABLE, DON’T TELL SOPHIA.

Only one ew bet today on LAmour de Ma Vie inthe 11.35.

9.25 = COMMEMORATIVE, IMPERIA
10.05 = GOLDENCENTS
10.50 = ISABELLA SINGS, LADY ELI
11.35 = DON'T TELL SOPHIA, CLOSE HATCHES

Tonights Pick 4...............

I don't rate this year's Arc form very highly and for me Flintshire is a bit too short. I believe Telescope on his day is a considerably better horse, he was below par at York but that wasn't too surprising given his previous two runs. It would be no surprise to see Stoute produce him back to his best for this race but again he's a bit too short with the doubt about his current form, therefore I'm laying Flintshire.

Good call F. I couldn't back them but I sort of hoped they would run better. Not really sure how strong the race was.
My main bet this year is Karakontie and Veda.I couldn't have Dank with her poblems and RM wasn't gushing about her in his column but still made her his best bet. I had a good BC last year but there is nothing much to back this year except the two in the mile. Like buses you wait for one and two come along in the same race.
What a you dong in the mile?

Thanks. Wasn't expecting the bigger market move for Telescope when I laid Flintshire, bit of a surprise that. Now Toronado has shortened I'll just be playing up the winnings by laying him also. While his best form this year must give him a good chance, I have lower figures for him this year compared to last, rather than improve with age I believe he's gone slightly backwards and I think a horse like that will always be vulnerable. Actually most of this year's meeting has passed me by and I've spent most of the night watching darts

I have been packing. I'm to France for 3 weeks tomorrow. I actually delayed it for this meeting but it's a damp squib.
I don't fancy Toronado either and have had a small saver on Obviously at 13s on here just in case the GB horses are as bad as they are looking.

I should have said European horses not just GB.

A horse having a jockey that goes out there with a plan regardless of the pace of the race will also always be vulnerable , not that Toronado would've won anyway as Obviously ran even faster early. Unlucky with the Obviously bet, not sure if doing too much too soon cost him the race but it certainly couldn't have helped.

Sorry, well done on Karakontie, forgot that was the main bet.

I was just getting late cold feet about the European horses. Nice to see a plan stagger to fruition. Made putting off the holiday well worthwhile and now a good bit more enjoyable.

Have a great holiday brigust.


I was surprised by the Toast Of New York run,  but more surprised by the booking of Spencer, I could count on 3 pairs of hands the amount of forward on or close too the pace rides by Spencer in his career, with those tactics planned, not convinced he was the correct choice?, he did nothing wrong,but a strange choice all the same.

really underwhelming meeting not a patch on Arc day or even Champions day

agree re spencer.....mind you his race style is apt considering where he was riding ......hollywood

Thanks MJ. I will try to find those weights for you. See messages.