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Ayr Gold Cup
Ayr Gold Cup
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Replies: 133
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No idea Sint. She won her Listed race which is what connections had been trying for so she had some black type for the breeding catalogue (her last 7 races were in Listed grade), and I'm hoping (guessing) they then thought it was better to aim at a £100k prize than try to get placed in a Group 2/3 and pick up £5-10k or so.
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yeah, poss. OR is 101 which is pretty fair for a Listed winner. I remember the interview the trainer gave to ATR on the morning before she won at Naas, just surprised she's not raced since.
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Well I've settled on just the three
 Ruwaiyan who's chance is obvious on his Stewards Cup run but if the trainers are correct not the best draw??? Couldn't let Watchable go unbacked would prefer a longer break for him but think he is a real improver and finally An Saingduir ew he has ran third in the last two Silver Cups being beaten by Mass Rally and Highland Colori in 2012 and then last year should have won but for not getting a clear run and staying on strongly. |
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did read a stat in rfo re horses dropping class haven't got a good record .
10 yr trends 0- 41 listed race 0-13 gp3 0-2 gp2 1-11 gp1 |
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Ruwaiyan was my main fancy for this all along but unfortunatley i am v confident they have blown any chance due to some horriffic placing in an 18k swedish race a few days ago!!! Beyond awful placing/planning
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Looks like a high to middle draw is massively favoured - shame 3 of my 4 bets are drawn low.
 Will just have to up my stakes on Highland Acclaim. |
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I've not looked at the race in detail yet but my first impression is not to back anything drawn lower than 20!!
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I cant help feeling that there is a massive over-reaction from the bookies regarding the draw here. There wasnt really that much difference in the Bronze Cup bearing in mind they went like the wind up the stands side. Alben Star is now looking extremely attractive at 14-1. Theres so many variables to take into consideration plus the rail is being moved out 4m tomorrow. In the past the stands side have won the silver cup and the far side has won the gold cup an hour and a half later. My advice. Pick your horse on form and stick to it.
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A lot of the good horses are drawn low too. Lots to ponder later.
Alben Star attempting to do a Knot In Wood... placed in the Stewards then placed at Ayr..Alben Star only 1lb higher off each run and a 3lb claim at Ayr. He didn't quite win though..mark too high by about 4lbs imo! |
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Duke of Firenze looks like he's been laid out for this (appreciate he won't be the only one!) by a trainer who has the Midas touch with the sprinters but would probably prefer some cut...
I also like Minalisa and the Ryan pair Blaine and Hamza. Will wait until the morning now, back Minalisa and one of the other three plus stick all four in one of the trickiest placepots of the year! Good luck, all - enjoyed reading the thread... |
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Can`t say that I`m a big fan of sprint handicaps but in the absence of something better to do I have cast my eye over the Ayr Gold Cup and am now even less enamoured about the race. However,after doing the work it seems a shame not to have a minor interest.
From those with a low draw the clock says Hamza and from the high draw An Saighdiur and Supplicant. Perhaps mistakenly I have discarded those(Go Far)with a middle draw. Have to make a decision and will have a little e-w on An Saighdiur with low expectation. Abuse me later. |
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betilyerded is it the far rail being moved out or the stand rail, I remember backing fonthill road when he won, in the silver cup previous the high drawn horses creamed the low and fonthill who i think was joint fav drifted out to 16-1, hanagan stopped low with a couple others and came home clear, think it was good t soft
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Heavens guest has been running over seven furlongs and even over a mile of late , it however can be argued that his best ever form was over six on g/f at Newmarket back in his three year old days . At that venue in a valuable race old he held off Moviesta in a driving finish, that Horse now has an Exalted rating of 112 . HG has a fair draw tomorrow , if he can get a clear run he has all the ability needed to go very close , of course the race is a lottery and luck in running is essential , hope he gets it as he is a tremendously genuine Horse . GL
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Had an eachway on Fast Shot with Lads who go 6 places. High drawn, won twice back in the spring before running down the field in the Wokingham. Was then given a two month break before returning in the Gr St Wilfred where it is possible the race was used as a prep run given the trainers record at Ayr and the fact the horse was runner-up in the Silver Cup last year. He may want slightly softer ground but has form on GF. 25/1.
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£6,000 waiting to get on Louis The Pious on here. Is that the pricewise selection? If not that is significant and is my other bet with HG. Still cant believe Alben Star can be backed at 22-1 on here though. Has it lost a leg?? Off to bed and then driving down tomorrow. Good luck all!
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Bettilyerded , looks like we picked the same Horse , agree Garrity would have been better choice because HG gives plenty under a strong ride but S bell looks a real talent as well. GL
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I struggle with these big sprints these days,but the shortlist(not so short) comprises of Watchable - Minalisa - Supplicant,the first named like the second improving at the correct time,the latter lacking experience but showing a glimmer of form at the correct time,I prefer the latter from that view, who is very unexposed with just one run a month over the last four months,e/w stab for me.
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Added the favourite Blaine at 12/1. Good luck all!
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3 i have backed at antepost
BLAINE (my main hope) BARNET FAIR and DUKE OF FIRENZE Hopefully Blaine wont go off favourite as faves have a dire record in this...! Good Luck |
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Advanced was placed in the race as a three yo before winning it a year later for Kevin Ryan off a 5lb higher mark
Yes, and he also he won a valuable seven furlong races at Ascot under Amy Ryan , very similar profile to HG , it all works out in theory  |
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^ yep, two of those for me Blaine 12/1 ew (feel I have to cover the potential draw bias though I believe it's down to perception as much as anything else and might result in only a handful of runners coming up the far side due to trainer/jockey plans)
Duke of Firenze at 40/1 ew and Minalisa at 25/1 ew (6 places) are my other bets. Good luck. |
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There is no doubt about it that there is a huge bias on the stands side. Graham Lee has just shot up the rail on a 25/1 chance. That's not to say the ones drawn low cannot win, but they'll have to have an extra bit in hand plus some more to win, imo.
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The low numbers have little chance if they try coming over?? Surely it's worth trying the far rail?? Hamza and Asphan Sam are the pace so I hope they go far side.
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yep, even the winning trainer was critical of the bias after Lyons made his feelings felt pre race - feedback suggests it's a fairly narrow strip stands side that is quicker, could result in traffic problems I suppose but surely only those with single figure draws will stay far side and maybe not even all of them.
Frustrating... |
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No most jockeys are like lemmings and will head for the stands side.
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Even allowing for the bias I would be absolutely shocked if they all tried to get to the stand side. There will be two groups no doubt about it.
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eight of 'em stayed far side yesterday in Bronze Cup
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Anything is possible but last years Gold cup they all come over eventually. We will see
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First 4 home in Silver drawn high. They have about 1.5-2 lengths advantage.
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Rene Mathis @ 42 is a big price yes draw is against it but I like its form
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3rd and 5th here, that'll do.
well done Louis Pious backers. O'Meara is some traner! |
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well done to all winners and great run by Heavens Guest !!
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Lots of luck required to find one here but i thought Louis the pious when stepped up to seven furlongs showed what a good Horse he is , he went up six pounds for that win , but may handle the rise
Expected Loius to win the international back in May and posted the Above , did not completely lose faith today but my main bet was HG Lois from memory is a Holy Roman Emp.. they are a bit quirky but and often do not produce all they are capable of , we saw today what a really good Horse he is . |
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Well done to anyone who backed Louis, have give a mention to Graeme Rodway on Racing Post tv he gave Huntsman Close, Air Pilot who he said was a certainty and Louis some tipping.
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Make that July for international , Louis was tipped up by PW today, first time cheekpieces and plum draw , the Ayr Executive need to
get the ground right for the next time they race as those drawn low were effectively also rans right from the Off. |
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Jack dexters different class to that lot,a very poor race he was on wrong side and wrong ground infact he hasn't had any form at all on ground that quick goldie must be gutted as probably would've been a certainty just on gd/sft...
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These 'Golden Highways' are ruining the big meetings and heritage handicaps too often. Had similar strips at York Ebor, Newmarket July and Royal Ascot over recent seasons and it makes a mockery of having big field straight track races.
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Having backed Blaine to win and Louis a place, I knew my fate by halfway when Louis was in a perfect position while Blaine was stuck at the back. The best illustration of the draw bias was that Blaine passed about 12 horses in the last 100 yards to finish third, and if the race was run in lanes, would have won easily.
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LIOUS, was drawn 19 thats 8 horses alegedly drawn closer to the golden highway,having won as it did is anyone seriously saying the horse wouldnt have won if drawn say 16,17,18,that means in theory over half the horses could have won in big field handicaps thats par for the course,there were horses in front on the rail a furlong out earlier in the week and didnt win,a soft ground hold up horse couldnt have wouldnt have won on the golden highway,so as well as track position you still needed all the usual big field sprint components to win,ground,pace,luck and a sensible ride
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Agreed
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