Horse Antepost
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22 Aug 14
12:48
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03 Jul 02
Good to see the entries out for my fav race of the year and thought it was time to put my neck on the block again and flag up my fancied runner (hit the target with highland Colori last year at 33-1 so heres hoping). As mentioned last year, I like to look for a horse with top 7f handicap form and the one that leaps off the page is Heavens Guest. No doubt most will think that Alben star is faheys number one shot and thats fair enough given the season the horse has had but i fancy this one.
Firstly he ran a great race in last years renewal, finishing a creditable fourth, particularly for a 3 yo and given how well the race subsequently worked out, both last year and this. He took a bit of time to find form, going off too quickly in both the Victoria Cup and Buckingham Palace before landing the Bunbury Cup, a race plenty of horses have run in prior to Ayr. His next run in the Totesport was full of promise and even his run in the mile handicap at Goodwood was fine given it was his first attempt at the trip and he was drawn wide and ground a touch faster than he would like. dandy Nicholls winner Regal parade came via that race too.
My main reason for fancying him though is i still think he is well handicapped. For instance, Advanced was placed in the race as a three yo before winning it a year later for Kevin Ryan off a 5lb higher mark and yet didnt win a race in between. Faheys horse also runs off a 5lb higher mark - possibly negated by the booking of Chaloner or Garrity - but has bagged two heritage handicaps in between plus a 4th in the Totesport. That for me makes him the bet at 25-1 with Bet365. Runs this afternoon at York but shouldnt win -otherwise we are flooked.
Good luck folks.
Firstly he ran a great race in last years renewal, finishing a creditable fourth, particularly for a 3 yo and given how well the race subsequently worked out, both last year and this. He took a bit of time to find form, going off too quickly in both the Victoria Cup and Buckingham Palace before landing the Bunbury Cup, a race plenty of horses have run in prior to Ayr. His next run in the Totesport was full of promise and even his run in the mile handicap at Goodwood was fine given it was his first attempt at the trip and he was drawn wide and ground a touch faster than he would like. dandy Nicholls winner Regal parade came via that race too.
My main reason for fancying him though is i still think he is well handicapped. For instance, Advanced was placed in the race as a three yo before winning it a year later for Kevin Ryan off a 5lb higher mark and yet didnt win a race in between. Faheys horse also runs off a 5lb higher mark - possibly negated by the booking of Chaloner or Garrity - but has bagged two heritage handicaps in between plus a 4th in the Totesport. That for me makes him the bet at 25-1 with Bet365. Runs this afternoon at York but shouldnt win -otherwise we are flooked.
Good luck folks.
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My mistake slowerthanjohn. I meant Redford. Ryan had him then dandy got him and whipped off the nose band he always wore. Stroke of genius imo and is little things like that i often look for in horses, particularly sprinters. Great to see Dandy having a much better season of late and wonder if he is running Kimberella in the Portland. I agree that Jack Dexter is another who could run well without winning though you feel the handicapper knows enough about him now.
What I would say is dont tie yourself in knots over the draw, despite the result of the Silver Cup just go with your fancy as the best horse wins this race year in year out.
What I would say is dont tie yourself in knots over the draw, despite the result of the Silver Cup just go with your fancy as the best horse wins this race year in year out.
Oh you had to mention Redford
I backed off cliffs as a 3yo when with M.Bell. Dandy is a top top man and agree good to see him doing better. Also agree about the draw it's too difficult to decipher I backed Fonthill Road ante post and I'd given up hope as his draw was supposed to be a hopeless task he was only one of 3 I think to stay low and still won!
I backed off cliffs as a 3yo when with M.Bell. Dandy is a top top man and agree good to see him doing better. Also agree about the draw it's too difficult to decipher I backed Fonthill Road ante post and I'd given up hope as his draw was supposed to be a hopeless task he was only one of 3 I think to stay low and still won!
Another one I like at a big price is Marco Botti's Foxtrot Romeo which is available at 33/1 in most places.
Watchable @ 16/1 for me - needs a few to come out though.
Long term forecast not encouraging for my selection here. Very little rain about at all in the forecast and could easily be fast ground on the day, so confidence wouldnt be high if thats the case. Need to have a good look for alternatives as Dexter, Colori and Heavens Guest would be severely compromised by quick ground and it would bring in the proper 6f speed horses.
Remember we are talking about the west coast of Scotland 
Very few wks go by over their with no rain.
Very few wks go by over their with no rain.
Take your point and the going can change both ways very quickly at Ayr. I do feel, however, that given they are g-f already and there isnt much rain forecast that the chances of soft appearing the description is remote. Muthmir's win in todays Portland didnt do much damage to Ruywaians chances based on Goodwood form and given he was compromised by the way the race panned out last time at Newmarket. Cant see Muthmir going North given his entries in group races and how quickly the race will come.
Crazy decision by Haggas really. He said at the start of the season the horse was well handicapped and needed a flat track. Losses from a bad draw on a downhill track but wins two big pots pulling a cart. Small penalty, ground in it's favour and almost a shoo in and he doesn't run. Very surprising considering the amount of prize money on offer.
Some scottish history...
Blaine has been spelled Blain, Blane, Blaines, Blahan... First found in Ayrshire formerly county in the southern Strathclyde region of scotland, that today makes up the council areas of South, east and North of Ayrshire where they held a family seat from very ancient times, some say well before the Norman conquest and arrival of Duke William of Hastings 1066.
Hopefully this horse will turn up on Saturday.
Blaine has been spelled Blain, Blane, Blaines, Blahan... First found in Ayrshire formerly county in the southern Strathclyde region of scotland, that today makes up the council areas of South, east and North of Ayrshire where they held a family seat from very ancient times, some say well before the Norman conquest and arrival of Duke William of Hastings 1066.
Hopefully this horse will turn up on Saturday.
Watchable runs in Ireland today, a lot of the leading fancies are dropping like flies and if the ground is fast many won't have ideal conditions. Muthmir does seem to like his races spaced out and I'm afraid connections aren't in need of the prize money.
The 5 day weather forecast is for dry mild weather in Scotland.
If correct it will be on the fast side.
If correct it will be on the fast side.
just backed watchable at 14/1 hope it runs/gets in now.
Wouldnt surprise me if they waited for Ascot now with Watchable, given how well he has run twice over C&D this year and to give him chance to recover. Wonder if Louis The Pious is their main hope now. Hacked off with the weather forecast, just booked my b&b as well!!
mass rally eachway!!!!!!!!! doing a raindance everyday which is not a pretty sight btw.good luck everyone..
Does anyone know if Watchable is going to run in this ...as he is in the 6 day decs?
Want to back Mass Rally, but I fear the ground will be against him, so sadly may have to sit it out....
Don't know if Watchable runs but has a 5lb penalty now, it was looking as if he needed a penalty to get into the race but now would have made it in anyway. The thing is it was a 90 euro prize yesterday so a bird in the hand! I thought he looked a very good horse yesterday and was in front a long way out, whether this race comes too soon?
I'm really hoping Ruwaiyan runs as I think he will run a massive race especially if a good claiming jockey is booked.
I'm really hoping Ruwaiyan runs as I think he will run a massive race especially if a good claiming jockey is booked.
kevinglass. hold fire. been told rain will arrive in Scotland by Saturday. it will not take much of it as well for the ground to have a bit of cut in it.. be patient.
Hawkeyethenoo leaping off the page at 33-1. Huge chance whatever the weather does.
coc "we took the going stick reading this morning (Monday) and its all very even.It walks quite evenly." Marley will water if neccessasry to ensure the meeting begins on ground no firmer than good" We'll take it day by day to whether we are going to be watering futher"
Has become a farce, fast ground horses may as well give up!
Has become a farce, fast ground horses may as well give up!
TBF, Im sure most trainers enter their horses in this race with the expectation of the ground having some dig in it. Thats not to say they should make it artificially soft but i doubt you would lay a fast ground horses out for it. Theres hardly any rain in the forecast so meethinks it will be good at best, which is surely the fairest.
As for who wins....Im still sticking with HG. he did win impresively over 6f at Newmarket as a 3yo on fast ground and the the likes of Moviesta, Ninjago, Chilworth Icon and rene Matise behind him so although I feel a bit of dig suits best he will hopefully cope with conditions. Hope Garrity is booked!
As for who wins....Im still sticking with HG. he did win impresively over 6f at Newmarket as a 3yo on fast ground and the the likes of Moviesta, Ninjago, Chilworth Icon and rene Matise behind him so although I feel a bit of dig suits best he will hopefully cope with conditions. Hope Garrity is booked!
BJG
I agree. Lots of horses show their best form on ground that is Firm or Good to Firm.
To deliberately artificially create going conditions to be no firmer than Good, is ridiculous.
Do they think that this gives a level playing field to all horses, by averaging out the going it will be fair to both horses who like Good to Soft and those that prefer Good to Firm ?
Utter nonsense approach. It would appear that most Courses are now taking this approach.It never used to be like this, so who/ what decided it should change ?
I agree. Lots of horses show their best form on ground that is Firm or Good to Firm.
To deliberately artificially create going conditions to be no firmer than Good, is ridiculous.
Do they think that this gives a level playing field to all horses, by averaging out the going it will be fair to both horses who like Good to Soft and those that prefer Good to Firm ?
Utter nonsense approach. It would appear that most Courses are now taking this approach.It never used to be like this, so who/ what decided it should change ?
Pour the wet stuff on I say. Put the taps on and forget to turn them off. Its the Ayr Gold Cup ffffffffs (Ive got a stutter).
Garrity booked for Alben Star. Makes sense I suppose and in same ownership. Chaloner maybe?
Garrity booked for Alben Star. Makes sense I suppose and in same ownership. Chaloner maybe?
bet your a real punter booked your b and b, and would still rather have rain for your fancy even the weather looks great for a weekend break, 
, respect,
, respect,
I love Ayr for the crack 1st time poster and go once a year either for the Scottish National or Gold Cup, depending on what my betting pal is doing. Its a bonkers place and win, lose or draw its a brilliant day out. Lucky to get the b&b cos the landlady had double booked us but after a bit of a reshuffle has found us a place in the garden shed. At least thats what im anticipating and anything else will be a bonus.
Come on the horses!!!!
Come on the horses!!!!
dont give up just yet if they vote yes tomorrow,the landlady might leave you a note telling you to switch the lights off when you leave,
what does anyone think of the chances of Barnet Fair... ? Dandy Nichols has not won this for a while?
He looks likely to make the cut so like most of them he would have a shout.
My "short list" is too long but Barkston Ash looks well treated if he gets some cut and Go Far ran well behind Muthmir.
Minalisa is an interesting runner. She looks on paper to have a bit to find but ,if you try hard, you can make out a case for her. G/f would be no problem and the stable seems to be firing.
My "short list" is too long but Barkston Ash looks well treated if he gets some cut and Go Far ran well behind Muthmir.
Minalisa is an interesting runner. She looks on paper to have a bit to find but ,if you try hard, you can make out a case for her. G/f would be no problem and the stable seems to be firing.
Don't think they've watered since 12th September ground will be reasonably quick tomorrow 8.7-8.9 on going stick can't see the track being overwatered by Saturday would have to chuck loads on..
No Ninjago, and No jack Dexter Telemyd, Highland Colori, or Out Do.
Hawkeyethenoo my selection
Hawkeyethenoo my selection
jack dexter stall 4.
trainers all picked the high draws.
trainers all picked the high draws.
Sadly no Ninjago 
must be something wrong with him ??
must be something wrong with him ??
Both mine, Allben Star and Watchable drawn low . Hope that's not a disadvantage !
I did not expect Supplicant to get in but he has and he looks booked for a place at least.33/1 looks fine to me.
orient class had a solo up the stand rail in the 5f race,and won easily.
Highland Acclaim and Eastern Impact @ 16/1 my main bets. Have saved on Watchable @ 10/1 (who I originally put up for this but backed on Sunday
and wonder if O'Meara has lined up Highland Acclaim for this instead) and Minalisa @ 25/1.
and wonder if O'Meara has lined up Highland Acclaim for this instead) and Minalisa @ 25/1.
Do you know why Minalisa has not raced since July, Uncle?
No idea Sint. She won her Listed race which is what connections had been trying for so she had some black type for the breeding catalogue (her last 7 races were in Listed grade), and I'm hoping (guessing) they then thought it was better to aim at a £100k prize than try to get placed in a Group 2/3 and pick up £5-10k or so.
yeah, poss. OR is 101 which is pretty fair for a Listed winner. I remember the interview the trainer gave to ATR on the morning before she won at Naas, just surprised she's not raced since.
Well I've settled on just the three
Ruwaiyan who's chance is obvious on his Stewards Cup run but if the trainers are correct not the best draw??? Couldn't let Watchable go unbacked would prefer a longer break for him but think he is a real improver and finally An Saingduir ew he has ran third in the last two Silver Cups being beaten by Mass Rally and Highland Colori in 2012 and then last year should have won but for not getting a clear run and staying on strongly.
Ruwaiyan who's chance is obvious on his Stewards Cup run but if the trainers are correct not the best draw??? Couldn't let Watchable go unbacked would prefer a longer break for him but think he is a real improver and finally An Saingduir ew he has ran third in the last two Silver Cups being beaten by Mass Rally and Highland Colori in 2012 and then last year should have won but for not getting a clear run and staying on strongly.
did read a stat in rfo re horses dropping class haven't got a good record .
10 yr trends
0- 41 listed race
0-13 gp3
0-2 gp2
1-11 gp1
10 yr trends
0- 41 listed race
0-13 gp3
0-2 gp2
1-11 gp1
Ruwaiyan was my main fancy for this all along but unfortunatley i am v confident they have blown any chance due to some horriffic placing in an 18k swedish race a few days ago!!! Beyond awful placing/planning
Looks like a high to middle draw is massively favoured - shame 3 of my 4 bets are drawn low.
Will just have to up my stakes on Highland Acclaim.
Will just have to up my stakes on Highland Acclaim.
I've not looked at the race in detail yet but my first impression is not to back anything drawn lower than 20!!
I cant help feeling that there is a massive over-reaction from the bookies regarding the draw here. There wasnt really that much difference in the Bronze Cup bearing in mind they went like the wind up the stands side. Alben Star is now looking extremely attractive at 14-1. Theres so many variables to take into consideration plus the rail is being moved out 4m tomorrow. In the past the stands side have won the silver cup and the far side has won the gold cup an hour and a half later. My advice. Pick your horse on form and stick to it.
A lot of the good horses are drawn low too. Lots to ponder later.
Alben Star attempting to do a Knot In Wood... placed in the Stewards then placed at Ayr..Alben Star only 1lb higher off each run and a 3lb claim at Ayr. He didn't quite win though..mark too high by about 4lbs imo!
Alben Star attempting to do a Knot In Wood... placed in the Stewards then placed at Ayr..Alben Star only 1lb higher off each run and a 3lb claim at Ayr. He didn't quite win though..mark too high by about 4lbs imo!
Duke of Firenze looks like he's been laid out for this (appreciate he won't be the only one!) by a trainer who has the Midas touch with the sprinters but would probably prefer some cut...
I also like Minalisa and the Ryan pair Blaine and Hamza.
Will wait until the morning now, back Minalisa and one of the other three plus stick all four in one of the trickiest placepots of the year!
Good luck, all - enjoyed reading the thread...
I also like Minalisa and the Ryan pair Blaine and Hamza.
Will wait until the morning now, back Minalisa and one of the other three plus stick all four in one of the trickiest placepots of the year!
Good luck, all - enjoyed reading the thread...
Can`t say that I`m a big fan of sprint handicaps but in the absence of something better to do I have cast my eye over the Ayr Gold Cup and am now even less enamoured about the race. However,after doing the work it seems a shame not to have a minor interest.
From those with a low draw the clock says Hamza and from the high draw An Saighdiur and Supplicant. Perhaps mistakenly I have discarded those(Go Far)with a middle draw.
Have to make a decision and will have a little e-w on An Saighdiur with low expectation.
Abuse me later.
From those with a low draw the clock says Hamza and from the high draw An Saighdiur and Supplicant. Perhaps mistakenly I have discarded those(Go Far)with a middle draw.
Have to make a decision and will have a little e-w on An Saighdiur with low expectation.
Abuse me later.
betilyerded is it the far rail being moved out or the stand rail, I remember backing fonthill road when he won, in the silver cup previous the high drawn horses creamed the low and fonthill who i think was joint fav drifted out to 16-1, hanagan stopped low with a couple others and came home clear, think it was good t soft
Heavens guest has been running over seven furlongs and even over a mile of late , it however can be argued that his best ever form was over six on g/f at Newmarket back in his three year old days . At that venue in a valuable race old he held off Moviesta in a driving finish, that Horse now has an Exalted rating of 112 . HG has a fair draw tomorrow , if he can get a clear run he has all the ability needed to go very close , of course the race is a lottery and luck in running is essential , hope he gets it as he is a tremendously genuine Horse . GL
Had an eachway on Fast Shot with Lads who go 6 places. High drawn, won twice back in the spring before running down the field in the Wokingham. Was then given a two month break before returning in the Gr St Wilfred where it is possible the race was used as a prep run given the trainers record at Ayr and the fact the horse was runner-up in the Silver Cup last year. He may want slightly softer ground but has form on GF. 25/1.
£6,000 waiting to get on Louis The Pious on here. Is that the pricewise selection? If not that is significant and is my other bet with HG. Still cant believe Alben Star can be backed at 22-1 on here though. Has it lost a leg?? Off to bed and then driving down tomorrow. Good luck all!
Bettilyerded , looks like we picked the same Horse , agree Garrity would have been better choice because HG gives plenty under a strong ride but S bell looks a real talent as well. GL
I struggle with these big sprints these days,but the shortlist(not so short) comprises of Watchable - Minalisa - Supplicant,the first named like the second improving at the correct time,the latter lacking experience but showing a glimmer of form at the correct time,I prefer the latter from that view, who is very unexposed with just one run a month over the last four months,e/w stab for me.
Added the favourite Blaine at 12/1. Good luck all!
3 i have backed at antepost
BLAINE (my main hope)
BARNET FAIR
and DUKE OF FIRENZE
Hopefully Blaine wont go off favourite as faves have a dire record in this...!
Good Luck
BLAINE (my main hope)
BARNET FAIR
and DUKE OF FIRENZE
Hopefully Blaine wont go off favourite as faves have a dire record in this...!
Good Luck
Advanced was placed in the race as a three yo before winning it a year later for Kevin Ryan off a 5lb higher mark
Yes, and he also he won a valuable seven furlong races at Ascot under Amy Ryan , very similar profile to HG , it all works out in theory
Yes, and he also he won a valuable seven furlong races at Ascot under Amy Ryan , very similar profile to HG , it all works out in theory
^ yep, two of those for me Blaine 12/1 ew (feel I have to cover the potential draw bias though I believe it's down to perception as much as anything else and might result in only a handful of runners coming up the far side due to trainer/jockey plans)
Duke of Firenze at 40/1 ew and Minalisa at 25/1 ew (6 places) are my other bets.
Good luck.
Duke of Firenze at 40/1 ew and Minalisa at 25/1 ew (6 places) are my other bets.
Good luck.
There is no doubt about it that there is a huge bias on the stands side. Graham Lee has just shot up the rail on a 25/1 chance. That's not to say the ones drawn low cannot win, but they'll have to have an extra bit in hand plus some more to win, imo.
The low numbers have little chance if they try coming over?? Surely it's worth trying the far rail?? Hamza and Asphan Sam are the pace so I hope they go far side.
yep, even the winning trainer was critical of the bias after Lyons made his feelings felt pre race - feedback suggests it's a fairly narrow strip stands side that is quicker, could result in traffic problems I suppose but surely only those with single figure draws will stay far side and maybe not even all of them.
Frustrating...
Frustrating...
No most jockeys are like lemmings and will head for the stands side.
Even allowing for the bias I would be absolutely shocked if they all tried to get to the stand side. There will be two groups no doubt about it.
eight of 'em stayed far side yesterday in Bronze Cup
Anything is possible but last years Gold cup they all come over eventually. We will see
First 4 home in Silver drawn high. They have about 1.5-2 lengths advantage.
Rene Mathis @ 42 is a big price yes draw is against it but I like its form
3rd and 5th here, that'll do.
well done Louis Pious backers. O'Meara is some traner!
well done Louis Pious backers. O'Meara is some traner!
well done to all winners and great run by Heavens Guest !!
Lots of luck required to find one here but i thought Louis the pious when stepped up to seven furlongs showed what a good Horse he is , he went up six pounds for that win , but may handle the rise
Expected Loius to win the international back in May and posted the Above , did not completely lose faith today but my main bet was HG
Lois from memory is a Holy Roman Emp.. they are a bit quirky but and often do not produce all they are capable of , we saw today what a really good Horse he is .
Expected Loius to win the international back in May and posted the Above , did not completely lose faith today but my main bet was HG
Lois from memory is a Holy Roman Emp.. they are a bit quirky but and often do not produce all they are capable of , we saw today what a really good Horse he is .
Well done to anyone who backed Louis, have give a mention to Graeme Rodway on Racing Post tv he gave Huntsman Close, Air Pilot who he said was a certainty and Louis some tipping.
Make that July for international , Louis was tipped up by PW today, first time cheekpieces and plum draw , the Ayr Executive need to
get the ground right for the next time they race as those drawn low were effectively also rans right from the Off.
get the ground right for the next time they race as those drawn low were effectively also rans right from the Off.
Jack dexters different class to that lot,a very poor race he was on wrong side and wrong ground infact he hasn't had any form at all on ground that quick goldie must be gutted as probably would've been a certainty just on gd/sft...
These 'Golden Highways' are ruining the big meetings and heritage handicaps too often. Had similar strips at York Ebor, Newmarket July and Royal Ascot over recent seasons and it makes a mockery of having big field straight track races.
Having backed Blaine to win and Louis a place, I knew my fate by halfway when Louis was in a perfect position while Blaine was stuck at the back. The best illustration of the draw bias was that Blaine passed about 12 horses in the last 100 yards to finish third, and if the race was run in lanes, would have won easily.
LIOUS, was drawn 19 thats 8 horses alegedly drawn closer to the golden highway,having won as it did is anyone seriously saying the horse wouldnt have won if drawn say 16,17,18,that means in theory over half the horses could have won in big field handicaps thats par for the course,there were horses in front on the rail a furlong out earlier in the week and didnt win,a soft ground hold up horse couldnt have wouldnt have won on the golden highway,so as well as track position you still needed all the usual big field sprint components to win,ground,pace,luck and a sensible ride
I don't think the draw bias at any of the other tracks was as bad as we have seen at Ayr tbh.
an outsider making his own running running 50 yds away got beat half a length on friday, if thats the worst bias you,ve seen there not doing to bad
1 horse from about 40 that tried to win up that side.
Just back from the western meeting and still in one peice - just. Had my luckiest/profitable visit to the track yet. Decided to take a chance of Ann Duffields Dark Reckoning, reasoning that it had won well the time before on quick ground and was undone in a small field tactical race lto. Graham lee found the golden highway and that was the the whole visit paid for in a oner. Backed Huntsman and Tatlisu in the Silver Cup and Louis The Pious and Heavens Guest in the Gold Cup. Lost on the final three races but by then i didnt care. last thing I remember is eventually giving up on a pint of draught Erdinger in caprices in Prestwick,close to midnight and wishing I was 20 years younger!! Holy moses, my head hurt this morning and I still had a 3 1/2 hour drive ahead of me - my bed is calling. Well done everyone who managed to eek a profit out of a tricky card and roll on wet weather for Heavens Guest next year!
Yes Louis was drawn away from the rail, but the jockey got there within 2 furlongs-that was the key. Blaine was also on the rail but didn't have the pace to avoid traffic trouble as most of the other jockeys wanted to be there.
yes but how many horses were in the so called pole position on the so called golden highway before him and didnt win,a golden highway means the 1st one onto to it should win,lious is a hold up performer who really likes a bit of give so conditions should have been against him, dark reckoning was another horse who was about the last horse in his race to get use of the so called golden highway
It may sound like trying to make the result fit the theory but I do think that the draw bias was most marked in the last furlong when the rail runners really came clear. I still can't believe that Blaine would have made up 10 lengths on so many other good horses in 100 yards unless something odd was happening.
It was amazing. It was like he was travelling on an escalator for the last 100 yards.
Loius The Pious loves it rattling quick, not slow. Both big handicaps he has won this season have been on Good to Firm as is a lot of his best form.
before ascot he was known as a slow ground horse his best run was his 2nd in last years ayr gold cup,what trainer would aim a horse who loves fast ground at the ayr gold cup 2 years running
Louis, fast ground horse for me too. Followed this one early in his career, when he was losing, but that's impression I've had.
Heavens Guest goes again today and just my luck he's gonna get the easy ground he needs and didnt get at Ayr.
Ive backed Highland Acclaim at 16's but I think I know how this story ends but 8-1 Heavens Guest is just too short.
Ive backed Highland Acclaim at 16's but I think I know how this story ends but 8-1 Heavens Guest is just too short.
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