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betilyerded
22 Aug 14 11:48
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Good to see the entries out for my fav race of the year and thought it was time to put my neck on the block again and flag up my fancied runner (hit the target with highland Colori last year at 33-1 so heres hoping). As mentioned last year, I like to look for a horse with top 7f handicap form and the one that leaps off the page is Heavens Guest. No doubt most will think that Alben star is faheys number one shot and thats fair enough given the season the horse has had but i fancy this one.
Firstly he ran a great race in last years renewal, finishing a creditable fourth, particularly for a 3 yo and given how well the race subsequently worked out, both last year and this. He took a bit of time to find form, going off too quickly in both the Victoria Cup and Buckingham Palace before landing the Bunbury Cup, a race plenty of horses have run in prior to Ayr. His next run in the Totesport was full of promise and even his run in the mile handicap at Goodwood was fine given it was his first attempt at the trip and he was drawn wide and ground a touch faster than he would like. dandy Nicholls winner Regal parade came via that race too.
My main reason for fancying him though is i still think he is well handicapped. For instance, Advanced was placed in the race as a three yo before winning it a year later for Kevin Ryan off a 5lb higher mark and yet didnt win a race in between. Faheys horse also runs off a 5lb higher mark - possibly negated by the booking of Chaloner or Garrity - but has bagged two heritage handicaps in between plus a 4th in the Totesport. That for me makes him the bet at 25-1 with Bet365. Runs this afternoon at York but shouldnt win -otherwise we are flooked.
Good luck folks.

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Replies: 133
By:
betilyerded
When: 22 Aug 14 15:24
Well that was fine, not knocked about at all and the winner franked the Bunbury Cup form. Would fancy the tables to be turned with a bit of give and a 5lb turnaround.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 23 Aug 14 05:55
Fahey looks to have a strong hand with the two you mention and Rene Mathis.

The horse i wanted to back, Aetna, doesnt have an entry. Wonder if she is injured because off 98 i thought she was a likely winner of this.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 23 Aug 14 12:48
Totally agree mackies gutted about Aetna can only think she's had a setback as she is entered in a Group race at Ascot in October. Her win at York beating Baccarat was top class form and I was thinking she'd been put away for thisWhoops Another horse I liked isn't entered either Great Minds. I'll wait till closer till the time to invest.
By:
sageform
When: 26 Aug 14 08:43
Would you fancy Highland Colori after his very good run at York?
By:
kenco
When: 26 Aug 14 09:12
Jack dexter and highland colori will be half their current prices on the day,if the grounds soft jack dexter slaughtered highland colori and spinatrix on very soft ground at Donny after the gold cup last season.Jack dexters probably the best 6f handicapper in the race on very soft ground he'll be 10/1 on the day tops if it's very soft ground!!ShockedCool
By:
bazzar
When: 26 Aug 14 19:13
Why no markets for this race and CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Gold Cup 3 and 1/2 weeks away
and CAMBS 4 and 1/2 weeks away?
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 27 Aug 14 07:40
^^^ plenty of markets for it :

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/ayr-gold-cup/winner
By:
bazzar
When: 27 Aug 14 11:17
Laying, not a market on Betfair and you knew what I meant,
just one of the awkward squad.
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 27 Aug 14 15:54
markets now up bazzar plus ces is there
By:
bazzar
When: 27 Aug 14 20:34
Thanks MORPETH.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 28 Aug 14 18:05
In regard in an earlier point about Aetna, she was entered at the 5 day decs for Chester this Saturday but doesn't run. Is it a case of Mick Easterby has done a Dandy and forgot to enter his horses? He doesn't have a single entry???? Which seems strange with horses like Aetna, Hoof It and Ancient Cross who won last years Silver Cup. So I think that's the most likely answer, forgive my post if this was reported somewhere earlier as I haven't seen it.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 28 Aug 14 20:25
Its a bit odd. There are about 10 horses in the yard you might expect to be entered in the race taking into account the consolation races usually drop down to 70 rated horses. And they have done fairly well there in the past. She looks as well handicapped as any sprinter in training at the moment and i cant believe they wont want to exploit that mark.
By:
kevinglass
When: 29 Aug 14 18:50
Mass Rally ticks lots of boxes.

Freshened up, had a prep. Has won the silver cup, comes off a strong pace, and doesn't mind a bit of cut. As long as it's not too firm....
By:
metro john
When: 30 Aug 14 05:59
50 on the list at minute needs plenty to come out,but Out Do would not be that badly treated.(unlikely to get in mind)
By:
betilyerded
When: 02 Sep 14 20:37
I backed Mass Rally along with Highland Colori last year but he never looked like getting involved. He's a funny horse and difficult to predict. HC ran a far more promising race than he has for a while and wouldnt rule out another bold showing though he wont have a 5lb claiming Oisin Murphy on his back this time! Alben Star has gone up a couple of pounds after his good 2nd in a listed race the other day though you could argue 109 is lenient given he split two 115 and 113 rated horses. You could see him being placed but not winning. i still really fancy Heavens Guest. I heard the horse wasnt going to take his chance in last years race after playing up and then getting jarred at Goodwood prior to Ayr but they let him take his chance. The way he won the following week at Ascot suggests he may perhaps have needed the race. if thats the case then it was a good effort. Just think that given some dig in the ground that he has the ideal profile. Hope one the bookies goes 33-1 at some stage or am I being greedy!!
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 02 Sep 14 20:51
mass rally and highland colori both tipped u in todays racing and football outlook in their ap column
By:
willie the milk
When: 04 Sep 14 18:02
For what it's worth, I'm on last years winner, Highland Colori. Don't know if the winner has ever retained the cup, I can never remember it being done. That said, he does come into the race 1lb below last year's winning mark of 104, likes soft ground, which it usually is, and is much better in with quite a few he beat last year. All you need is a nice high draw. Wont be 20s at the off.
GL
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Sep 14 18:15
No mention of Heaven's Guest OR on here..
By:
willie the milk
When: 04 Sep 14 19:52
History is really against HC. 1930/31 the last horse to retain the cup. Heronslea, according to Wiki anywayPlain
By:
bazzar
When: 05 Sep 14 13:35
FUNFAIR WANE won it twice as a 3yo and as a 5yo, can't remember if he took part
as a 4yo.
By:
bazzar
When: 05 Sep 14 13:45
FUNFAIR WANE finished 25th of 26 as a 4yo.
By:
betilyerded
When: 06 Sep 14 18:44
Would be very surprised if young Sam James doesnt ride Higland Colori as he has been riding Evan Sutherlands improving 3yo Highland Acclaim this year (same owner), given they used the same tactic last season with Oisin Murphy - unless they run both of course!!. Think he will be on the premises again but not quite in the same form this year IMO.

Youre right sint, no mention of HG but probably cos he isnt the most obvious, which is often the case in this race. I got the bug for the race years ago when I backed a 3yo filly of Brian McMahons called Evening Promise e/w at 33-1. Watched it from the top of the Eglinton stand and couldnt pick it out until her scything late run was just foiled by Fallon one of Ian Baldings whose name escapes me.Since then Ive collected on Presto Shinko (took virtually the same route as his previous winner Wildwood Flower), Regal Parade the year it was like the somme with added sludge, Captain Ramius and HC. Also should have backed Quito at 40's but stupidly listened to Andy Culhane after he was interviewed live on channel 4 after winning a race on the Friday (yes a Friday for the Silver Cup) and said he had no chance from his low draw. Humph. Even managed to talk myself out of Our Jonathan after noticing Dandy had ditched the noseband after getting him from Kevin Ryan and travelled so sweetly at Chester on his prep without it. Another humph.
Still, love the race and always will.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 06 Sep 14 21:20
Grangeville was the Balding horse but Our Jonathan was trained by Kevin Ryan to win the race. My first memory and best as well was backing Lochsong at 10s happy daysWink
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Sep 14 21:44
Arnold Lane is 10lb lower than when 4th behind Heavens Guest in ascot last October. Very well handicapped now, recent form is the query?
By:
lead on
When: 07 Sep 14 11:58
Encouraging run from Hawkeyethenoo yesterday,just behind the aforementioned Highland Acclaim.I've backed them both along with Jack Dexter.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 07 Sep 14 14:33
Used to go over to Ayr every year for this meeting (Thur & Sat) with my old racing mentor & great friend Cool.
The only 6f hcap sprint i have a small play in over the season, not my kind of race for betting in over the season but tradition in this race.
Not an ante-p play race imo (ground & draw very important norm)
The Hannon horse Ninjago looks a likely player & handles most types of ground, also has some gd big field hcap form to his name (very gd run last time) not been overly raced as a 4yo & poss more to offer in improvement.
By:
Paterson92
When: 07 Sep 14 16:44
Jack Dexter at 20/1 is my ante-post bet, just hope the ground is right for him!
By:
lead on
When: 07 Sep 14 16:54
If it's not right for Jack it'll suit Hawkeyethenoo.Big Jim's gonna get it right one year!
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 07 Sep 14 17:01
Surely Jack Dexter needs a good 5lb claimer?
By:
Paterson92
When: 07 Sep 14 17:10
Funnily enough, Mr Goldie told a workmate of mine on his last trip to Hamilton Racecourse to bet Jack Dexter for the AGC, good enough for me!
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 07 Sep 14 17:15
No doubt he's a very smart horse on soft ground but look at last years race nothing against G.Lee but if he'd had Murphy claiming 5lb then bingo. I'll probably be wrong but unless he has claiming jockey can't seeing him winning, a place chance.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 07 Sep 14 17:26
I honestly think that Intrinsic should have come straight to this race rather than that listed race at Newmarket where I think they said he an infection? If he makes the line up then he has to be a major player, goes on any ground and is only 5lb higher for winning the Stewards Cup which he won cosily enough. If the ground comes up soft I'd also be interested in Ruwaiyan especially with the assistance of a good claiming jockey as I'm sure a real test at 6f will be right up his street.
By:
lead on
When: 07 Sep 14 17:33
I've been thinking for a while that a good claimer is what's needed for him.Garrity or Bartley'll do for me
By:
betilyerded
When: 07 Sep 14 17:40
My mistake slowerthanjohn. I meant Redford. Ryan had him then dandy got him and whipped off the nose band he always wore. Stroke of genius imo and is little things like that i often look for in horses, particularly sprinters. Great to see Dandy having a much better season of late and wonder if he is running Kimberella in the Portland. I agree that Jack Dexter is another who could run well without winning though you feel the handicapper knows enough about him now.
What I would say is dont tie yourself in knots over the draw, despite the result of the Silver Cup just go with your fancy as the best horse wins this race year in year out.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 07 Sep 14 18:01
Oh you had to mention RedfordSadI backed off cliffs as a 3yo when with M.Bell. Dandy is a top top man and agree good to see him doing better. Also agree about the draw it's too difficult to decipher I backed Fonthill Road ante post and I'd given up hope as his draw was supposed to be a hopeless task he was only one of 3 I think to stay low and still won!
By:
Paterson92
When: 07 Sep 14 22:17
Another one I like at a big price is Marco Botti's Foxtrot Romeo which is available at 33/1 in most places.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 08 Sep 14 08:43
Watchable @ 16/1 for me - needs a few to come out though.
By:
betilyerded
When: 11 Sep 14 06:10
Long term forecast not encouraging for my selection here. Very little rain about at all in the forecast and could easily be fast ground on the day, so confidence wouldnt be high if thats the case. Need to have a good look for alternatives as Dexter, Colori and Heavens Guest would be severely compromised by quick ground and it would bring in the proper 6f speed horses.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 11 Sep 14 13:36
Remember we are talking about the west coast of Scotland Mischief
Very few wks go by over their with no rain.
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