NUNTHORPE Stakes - UNDRAFTED 20/1

Ortensia won this as a 7yo. She also won the same race as Take Cover just did prior to it.

I think you must mean Sole Power, as Slade Power is not running in it, his next start is either the Haydock Sprint Cup over 6f or in Australia.

Yes sorry I didnt realise Slade Power not running in it ... good to get value from the race before they take him out.

I do like Take Cover but if yo take the last 15 years... Ortensia , Bordlescott and Bahamian Pirate were aged 7 or older... I always feel this race suits younger legs - But I might be wrong!

Its bit difficult knowing what turns up but worth also giving Hot Streak another chance at 5f.

Ignore me - I thought Slade Power was in the betting lol!

The most interesting horse for me is the French 3yo Rangali, who fairly scooted up in a group 2 in France in June over 5f. Hasnt run since, and i havent heard or read anything either. Got 7lb from Stepper Point that day and beat it 3 lengths with more in hand. Does anyone know if its an intended runner, because i think 20-1 is huge on the form through Stepper point and the visual impression of the win.

The experienced Pantall, who trained Restiadargent to finish third to Black Caviar in the 2011 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, said: "If the horse is well, I think he will run at York.

"He has won a Group Two and there are not many Group Ones for him over the distance."

I rate Rangali a bit better than Hot Streak and thought they'd send him over for the King's Stand where he would've received 6lbs off his elders and I reckon he could've gone close. He'll only receive 3lbs at York, which makes things more difficult unless he can improve again.

20/1 with a lot of the firms. Probably worth a poke at those odds. Won't mind any cut if it gets that way whereas some on the others need it quick especially the fav.

Sorry, 2lbs, even worse.

I've had a few quid on at the price.

Rangali not a bad shout... hopefully he will turn up at York...

Figgis. It would be very surprising if the 3yo was not improving through the season as he matures. That is why the wfa system of weights varies and the concession to 3yo's decreases through the year.

I really think the wfa scale and people referring to the "weight concession" is a complete red herring. The wfa scale is sound and reasonable. Even Timeform, with their own battleship full of research have only a minute difference between the official wfa scale and their own.

Backing 3yo's against older horses because you think the wfa scale is unfair is the road to poverty. The best horse, irrespective of age, tends to win the group 1's. I repeat, just what chance would any 3yo in the history of racing have had at level weights with the 4yo Frankel? Do you think it would have been okay for a 3yo to take him on at level weights?

COT, I only refer to it as weight concession, perhaps wrongly, when I think the horse receiving is superior, e.g Aus & Taghrooda. Otherwise I just look at it as exactly what it is... WFA.

Any ideas what has happened to Pearl Secret? He was disappointing at Ascot but has not been seen since so maybe did himself an injury, or just found the ground too quick. On his form with Hot Streak he has a chance, but needs some cut.

Figgis. It would be very surprising if the 3yo was not improving through the season as he matures

Cryoftruth, even if you think the wfa scale is correct (I don't), it is only an average of how the handicappers see 3yos improving throughout the season. It is an average of some horses improving that amount, some more and some less. While it is sensible to factor in that a 3yo may improve by around that amount, I don't believe it is at all sensible to take it as a given that every horse improves by the same amount throughout a season and use that as a basis for betting. Toronado was supposed to have improved 8lbs in real terms between his Sussex Stakes win last year and this year, Treve was supposed to have improved by the same amount from her Arc win to this year. Have those runners improved by anything like that amount? I just don't see it. Of course some will improve that much and some even more, but when the betting market generally factors the improvement as automatic I prefer to remain open minded.

The owners of Pearl Secret are hoping to run. I think they just don't want Good to Firm ground. On that basis I have had a bet at 20/1. It is risky but if the going turns out to be good I think he'll run and he is 6lb better off with Hot Streak from their Haydock run so that puts him bang there. Just needs a little cut in the ground. He is 2/3 at York.

Interestingly we have ten 2 year old's entered up,I think probably far more than is normal.
It is probably due to the lack of a standout sprinter's from 3 year old and upwards.So Anthem Alexander
and Hootenanny might have a chance in this year's race.

It's been said before by others and I agree, that it's really surprising that trainers don't take more advantage of the weight allowance 2yos receive. I think anybody who has studied times will be of the opinion that the allowance isn't just a matter of quibbling about a few pounds, the allowance they receive is ridiculously generous. 24lbs greatly overestimates how far behind the older horses 2yos are by this stage. The only problem with getting a 2yo there is it's preferable to have one with experience in a big field, as a race like this could be intimidating for a lightly raced 2yo having only experienced small fields. However, with that experience the horse obviously has to get to the race still primed to run to form, so you don't want to do too much with it beforehand. Other than that I have no doubts that on ability alone 2yos are massively favoured by the wfa terms.

what is the news on hootenanny? has ward said he is bringing him over?

Everythin i av read says hes being aimed at the Gimcrack

Think so Harry.

thx bjg

Oh is it BJG. Sorry, thought he was going Nunthorpe.

shame really as he would of been an interesting runner... whatever vitamins ward is using to make these 2 years olds look 3 year olds might have been a slight edge in this race getting the weight, surprised ward isn't having a stab tbf

chris cook ‏@claimsfive  Jun 20
Hootenanny goes for the Gimcrack, Wesley Ward says

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Pat Cummings ‏@DubaiRaceNight  Jul 19
Wesley Ward told me today at Saratoga that he has left Undrafted in the UK. Hootenanny on track for Gimcrack at York.

_____________

Ward intends to first run his other entry, the four-year-old Undrafted, in the July Cup at Newmarket and he is more likely to take up the Nunthorpe entry than Hootenanny, who has the Gimcrack at York as his objective.

"Undrafted is on course for the July Cup and I'm really excited about him. I certainly wouldn't run the two against each other at York," said the American handler.

"We'll just keep our options open, but Hootenanny is scheduled for the Gimcrack. That gives him ample time to get over Ascot. He arrived home in great order.

"I'm really looking forward to running him in all the big two-year-old races at home later in the season.

"He'll get bigger with time, whereas No Nay Never was a real imposing two-year-old.

"The juveniles do get a big weight pull, but in my mind I ask who would win a workout if I put a 135lb rider on Undrafted and 110lb rider on Hootenanny? In my mind, Undrafted probably would.

"You have to ask yourself which would be the easier race, the Gimcrack or the Nunthorpe?

"He (Hootenanny) would be nearly favourite for the Gimcrack. I'd always favour taking the best option.

"I hope his season culminates at the Breeders' Cup on grass, so I want to make the right decisions before we get there."

Undrafted nt gonna run here now which may open the door for Hootenany again possibly but he seems to be favouring the Morny now!!

Any news on whether Anthem Alexander goes here? 10s would be v big if so

The Ebor Festival at York is next on the agenda for Anthem Alexander after she was taken out of Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday due to the change in ground.
The Eddie Lynam-trained filly was a fine winner of the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and was well fancied to follow up at the weekend, only for heavy rain to upset her plans.

She holds entries in the Group Two Lowther Stakes and the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes at York next week and both options are now under "careful consideration".

Lynam said: "Obviously she couldn't run because of the going.

"She has a couple of entries in York next week and we will make a decision over the weekend about what we are going to do.

"Both races are under careful consideration.

"I've discussed it with her owner and we are going to talk again later in the week."

Really anoyed with UNDRAFTED - Connections stated that horse will be aimed here in RP...

Anyway...

Take Cover
Hot Streak
Rangali

are my remaining bets at this stage

Is there rain knocking about next week, could make things interesting.

no severe bouts of rain on the horizon according to any forecast ive seen. I dont believe Rangali is ground dependent although clearly rain would disadvantage a few others. My only concern is why the horse has not run since 1st June. I can understand missing Ascot as im guessing connections were surprised by the win at Chantilly and the Kings Stand came a bit soon after that, but surely they could have found another race...

..unless they have waited for this one!

Connections of Wizz Kid did the same thing after he won the same race. He managed 5th. I agree it is a long break inbetween races, i'd prefer a more recent run tbh, but maybe there is not the opportunity for 5f sprinters, especially the 3yos.

Unlucky with this but they probably made the right decision rather than anything shady.

The comment about him dropping to a group 2 or 3 race was interesting...wonder what prompted that? Him training well but another horse at Cowell's busting him up on the gallops? My thinking if he wasn't good enough for the Nunthorpe then why stick around in England? Just head back stateside....

Yup, one of Cowells mashin his up was the reason hes hittin for the hills - which one i wonder

Very poor placement not to run Tiggy Wiggy or Anthem Alexander here.

Impressive from Tiggy Wiggy. The Nunthorpe would have been a different test imo, but you would have to say that performance would surely have seen her go close.

Lynam not exactly overwhelming me with confidence for Sole Power earlier...

Cougar Mountain ran a blinder on only his second start in the July Cup and it's surely significant that he's dropped down in trip here when presumably they could have run Due Diligence.

Sole Power would win if he was sure to run his race but I'm not confident he will. The race is much too difficult for me to find the winner but I'm place laying Cougar Mountain. I think Slade Power showed better form at Royal Ascot and I don't believe the July Cup form is up to much. For me Cougar Mountain is going to need to improve to get near some of these experienced speedsters over 5f.

well done Figgis - some training performance by Lynam who's a genius with the sprinters (all credit to the horse too!).

Cougar Mountain ran like a horse who needs further, still an animal of some potential I think...

Ta, RH. Surprisingly none of us on this thread backed the winner, but I'm sure it was just the same doubts whether SP would run his race.

EXTORTIONIST looks good prospect for next year, when few of these will be retiring. sprinting division next year will very competitive.
the winner always seems to rocket through even when it finds trouble never heard of cougar mountain WD on lay