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The German camera angle reminded of this beaut from racing uk back in the day....gem....
http://youtu.be/tWZXgQY40jY |
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The ground on the stand side looked yellowish. Was there watering, and did they miss that bit? The track is narrow and he didn't lose much distance moving over.
He was probably superior, but I would like to see him prove it by moving away from the front of the field, not away from the field. The course looked a bit unkempt, like a small provincial UK/Ireland track, not impressive. |
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Looks a powerful headstrong Horse , Jockey had a problem pulling him up at the end in what was a total destruction job, made to look routine . A lot depends on how you view the run of GC , he was struck into early on and finished down the field .It was a race in which it was expected he would find easier to handle than the Epsom Derby .
Tend to think the value of the form might be of about the same value as say a race like the Fielden which True Story romped away with or may be somewhat better, need to do some old fashioned pounds and ounces work on the placed Horses , at the moment I have Sea the Moon down as a True Story plus proposition |
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Talking of the Fielden , strange to remember that Somewhat ran behind TS in that , what a transformation , he looked a good Horse before the Racing Post Trophy last year , indeed some of us backed him for that , clearly wants firm ground and positive ride .
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The horse who finished 2nd was a possible non stayer too....by high chaparral but the mom was all speed.
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33.13 more like it for final 3f if that pole is the 3 marker on the bend. Wouldn't have a clue meself about Hamburg...
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Timeform rate it 127P,they recon it was 9 lengths not 1l lenths(what a backward world we live in),Not sure I can agree with the final figure they have given,to me that was a worthy 130 run,and regardless of what we may or may not think of those behind,18 runners could not go a yard with the winner,can't believe the race not rated better than the English Derby?
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because historically the Derby is a MUCH better race.
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yes but German Derbys not won in such style,this horse made pace and quickened 2.5 furlong out,the reaction from the horse was instant.(unlike the held up Australia in both Derbys)
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I remain convinced we have have seen a very exceptional 3yrld,how they cope with the older sorts remains too be seen!
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The course looked a bit unkempt, like a small provincial UK/Ireland track, not impressive.
Yes that was my impression when I first saw German tracks on tv, surprisingly very amateurish. |
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lots of rain in germany(very like wales)
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I was at Hamburg yesterday and can confirm the course has more of a provincial/P2P feel than a Group One track. Many punters just pitching up with tables, chairs & umbrellas to take in the action - it was swelteringly hot.
Geoffrey Chaucer looked the standout horse in the paddock, so from a form perspective it was a shame he got struck into and could give his running. As a huge fan of Sea The Moon, I still these current Arc quotes are ridiculous. I think he should be closer to 16s. Untapped potential but still unfurnished and certainly wouldn't win a beauty contest. The opposition really wasn't up to much and a lot of races on the undercard were being won by ludicrous distances. |
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I was at Hamburg yesterday and can confirm the course has more of a provincial/P2P feel than a Group One track. Many punters just pitching up with tables, chairs & umbrellas to take in the action - it was swelteringly hot.
Geoffrey Chaucer looked the standout horse in the paddock, so from a form perspective it was a shame he got struck into and could give his running. As a huge fan of Sea The Moon, I still these current Arc quotes are ridiculous. I think he should be closer to 16s. Untapped potential but still unfurnished and certainly wouldn't win a beauty contest. The opposition really wasn't up to much and a lot of races on the undercard were being won by ludicrous distances. |
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Thanks Pret, very informative. I have ridden round a few German tracks including Krefeld and Gelsenkirchen and although they were a bit provincial the track itself and the grass cover was brilliant. You said it was hot. Did they water and did the other results show the nearside to be faster and the best place to be? I know he is a bit shorter now for the Arc but with Australia and Kingston Hill requiring specific going and Treve off colour the opposition isn't exactly stacked up.
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RacingPost Rating; 120
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Certainly looked more yellow on the ground up this rail.
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Virtually same rating for TGG and STM. One beat Wild Chief by less than four lengths, the other beat him by 14 lenghts. If you factor in the 2f extra and that a hampered Wild Chief was actually running on in the Prix du Jockey Club, while STM was heavily eased down the difference is probably even bigger. It is by far the best three year old form and that performance was easily superior to Australia. Of course the RacingPost has to protect the British/Irish owners and races and pretend otherwise. As of right now it would make more sense to give TGG and Lucky Lion the same rating.
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If you think the rating is wrong and he is better than Australia then the price is in your favour. It's at times like these when betting men are supposed to bet like men.
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Exactly brigust! I'm not having ago at anyone who does their own ratings, every one to their own but if they do and they are saying Sea The Moon put up such a great figure then put your money on your judgement. I've backed him at 12s just on the fact of the visual impression, he looked like a machine. The form to me is a massive question mark as I'm not over sure what he beat as some definitely ran below par. You are betting on potential rather than anything else, that was only his third run and it was easily his best performance. Also in the Arc what will the opposition be? Australia I'd be doubtful he'll make the line up, do they want to take the chance of him being beaten? Treve has to come back? Then after that? If all goes well and his makes the Arc then maybe we will see that Sea The Moon is no machine but I'm willing to put my neck on the line at the 12's He definitely has the potential to be a monster but only time will time.
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John, that was actually his 4th run. The racing post do not have his maiden in their database for some reason. Guess they only include pattern races for some foreign runners to save on storage data? Dunno
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Oh no I'll cancel my bet if that's his fourth run
No that's where I looked as well but he's still lightly raced. Like I say we will see how good he is? |
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Very envious of those on at double figure prices. I would love to have a decent bet on STM now, but not at current prices in what could be a really good renewal.
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http://t.co/j00QXAaEBa
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Interesting that he says the ground was ''much quicker'' on the part of the track he steered to.
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Even more interesting that the horse quickened and strecch out after leading 18 rivals(ffs have you ever seen a race before) Mind you I believe the trainer and jockey idiots for giving the horse a harder race than nessesary,and still no great rating for the effort?(is it worth it)
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Are you talking to me MJ?
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If you choose to ignore the facts from what the jockey has reported, then more fool you. Performances like Sea The Moon's are rare so it is only commen sense to question it because then you can begin to understand it. Why would you get angry about that?
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Are you even aware Soumillon was walking that part of the track earlier in the day?
This horse could be a superstar, the chances are, given his breeding AND performances, he probably is. But don't get angry if someone disagress with you ...FFS. |
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MJ, given you think the ratings experts have Sea The Moon's rating wrong, and you think the horse has put up the best 3yo performance of the season but neglected to take the double figure prices for the Arc that were around after the race, can I ask you if you know anything about betting? Fair question, methinks.
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I refuse to bet ante post these days,only on the odd occasion in the past,Alderbrook at 33/1 my last big success(a long time ago),it's like betting blind and giving the game away for small stakes! |
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I think it was michael stoute that said something like"no pro would bet until the day",(well i aint no pro ,but michael is correct)
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They could supplement Sea The moon for the KG at a cost of 75.000, might be tempting ,that would send the market haywire !!
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hi mac,possible,but not sure they want to take on the older bunch just yet?
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I would like to see it MJ , old Stoute would probably have to be to be carried of somewhere in a state of apoplexy , were it to happen , he thinks the KG belongs to him and it probably does weather permitting .
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,The signs are that the 3yrlds could do with another couple of months,but would also like to see how they get on,remember in a good year the likes of workforce could not do it. |
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Good morning sintonian, just reread the thread,those comments I made, were not aimed at you,I had been reading another thread,flicked to this and got a bit confused,so no offence made at all towards you.Also I do bet before a race still,but not ante post in form of months before,and in my mind a good ante post bet would be at 25/1 plus,so some more confusion from me(sorry folks),
I am no trader ,time does not permit it,family and work put paid to that.I do comment occasionly and give opinion about ante post prices,but in the last 2 years have made a effort to stop activity for small stakes in the ante post market(I am no good at it) |
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For many years I have made money from ante-post, it is becoming more difficult now
especially with the new influx of trainers who are not aware of protecting a handicap mark, or just ignoring protecting, I would refer anyone to ROCKY GROUND high enough in the handicap but picked up a penalty for the WOKINGHAM, the same trainer won with a horse which was re-assessed to the tune of 9 lbs higher, the horse was successful at the higher assessment whereas in days gone by the mark would have remained the same as before his win and would have only gone up 5 lbs, even then but would still have been 9 lbs lower, the horse is a gelding so a stud career would not have been a concern!!!! |
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The horse which was runner-up to Sea The Moon, Lucky Lion, runs against Noble Mission today. The trip is 3f shorter though so not sure how imformative it would be, can debate it both ways.
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The lion roared,confirmation that Sea The Moon was not beating trees(possibly non stayers) but that is good enough for me. 9 lengths in front of that in the German Derby,after making pace and showing turn of foot 2f out(some horse this
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