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jamesp
18 Jun 14 14:16
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With Royal Ascot underway it seems an opportune moment to start a new thread on next year's 1000 Guineas.

No two-year-old filly so far this season has impressed me sufficiently to entice me into backing her for next season's 1000 Guineas, so I'm keeping my powder dry for the time being.

The Queen Mary Stakes occasionally throws up a genuine Guineas contender (the last filly to win both races was Attraction in 2003/04). Today's apparent leading contenders for the Queen Mary - Tiggy Wiggy, Anthem Alexander and the American runner Spanish Pipedream - are all sprint-bred and make no appeal as far as the Guineas is concerned.

Maybe Friday's Albany Stakes will produce a viable Guineas candidate. Bitter Lake (a half-sister to Lyric Of Light) made a very promising start to her career and could be a nice long-term prospect. Elite Gardens did well to beat the colts on her debut and is another to keep in mind in what looks an open-looking race.

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Replies: 659
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Jun 14 15:05
Thought's on David Barron's Likely, James.... sprint bred?
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Jun 14 18:14
There is plenty of stamina on the dam's side of Likely's pedigree, sint.  Her entry in the Moyglare Stud Stakes suggests that they think she will get 7f this season. She showed loads of speed on her Carlisle debut, enough to encourage connections to consider running her in the Queen Mary, but she also showed a smart turn of foot, so if she gets 7f she will be a very interesting prospect. She's held in high regard by David Barron. Let's see how she gets on in the Albany.
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Jun 14 18:25
As expected, the Queen Mary today did not appear to throw up any Guineas prospects. The winner Anthem Alexander is a fast tough filly who should continue to do well over sprint trips; she's in the Phoenix Stakes but not the Moyglare later in the season, and it seems unlikely that this half-sister to Dandy Man will stay much further than 6f. The runner-up Tiggy Wiggy is an admirably tough and consistent sprinter. The third (Newsletter), a daughter of Sir Percy, should get further but appears to be nothing special.
By:
AlfieT
When: 18 Jun 14 20:10
What about Patience Alexander? beat Tiggy Wiggy and runs in the Albany, and has a DI of 1.20, not from a top stable
but there you go.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Jun 14 21:51
I don't think Likely is running this week. Must have had a setback.
By:
AlfieT
When: 19 Jun 14 12:08
I don't think Likely is running this week. Must have had a setback.

Which horse is not lkely to run?
By:
AlfieT
When: 19 Jun 14 12:10
Oh I see what you mean, plese ignore my previous post.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Jun 14 22:00
Patience Alexander looks a sprinter. I'd be surprised if she turned out to be a miler.
By:
penzance
When: 19 Jun 14 23:38
Beach Belle does'nt look a bad prospect.
Beat Newsletter easily at Naas lto.
By:
AlfieT
When: 20 Jun 14 14:04
Patience Alexander looks a sprinter. I'd be surprised if she turned out to be a miler.

The Dam was campaigned 6f to a mile as a 2yo, she didn't win above 6 furlongs, then gain her only 2 races more than 6f
were  Group 1 in Ireland and France. It seems like connections thought she would stay a mile but she wasn't good enough.
By:
AlfieT
When: 20 Jun 14 14:42
Well, the Albany winner Cursory Glance will definately get a mile.
By:
Masterminded
When: 21 Jun 14 22:38
Whoops High Celebrity
By:
cryoftruth
When: 22 Jun 14 10:50
Alfie

I likes Cursory Glance as well, a really nice prospect. 25/1 didn't look that terrible to me so I had a nibble. This is still available with PP.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Jun 14 13:31
Al Naamah won readily on her debut in France over 7f today for Andre Fabre. Cost 5m Guineas and is a full sister to Was who won the Oaks a couple of years ago.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 25 Jun 14 21:48
^^^^^ closely related to New Approach too.
By:
deepingfox
When: 25 Jun 14 22:18
Loving the video of AL NAAMAH already, c/w Royal Ascot fillies.
By:
AlfieT
When: 27 Jun 14 14:28
Al Naamah won readily on her debut in France over 7f today for Andre Fabre. Cost 5m Guineas and is a full sister to Was who won the Oaks a couple of years ago.

Shows the power of Galileo, The Dams first four offspring were nothing to write home about, then introduce Galileo and the sale prices shoot up to £1.3 mil £1.6 mil and £5.2 mil with one classic winner in the bag.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Jun 14 17:56
Words was impressive just now at the Curragh but on breeding she looks more of a middle-distance filly.
By:
jamesp
When: 09 Jul 14 12:25
André Fabre's impressive maiden winner Al Naamah, who fetched a record 5 million guineas at Tattersalls as a yearling and is now generally a 16/1 shot for the Guineas, attracted a fair bit of press coverage both before and after her recent debut at Chantilly.  But it's another Fabre-trained filly that has really captured my imagination…

High Celebrity was a hugely impressive winner of a 7f maiden for unraced fillies at Chantilly on 20 June.  She was a little bit keen early on and Maxime Guyon sensibly allowed the odds-on favourite to bowl along in front, setting a moderate pace until asked to quicken (a couple of furlongs from the finish) under minimal pressure, cruising about 7 or 8 lengths clear before being eased considerably in the closing stages.  "We have always liked her and she has been training very well at home, but until they run you can never be sure," commented racing manager Laurent Benoit. "She won in very good style and we're absolutely delighted that she confirmed what she has showed us in the mornings. We have no immediate plans and will take our time before deciding where she goes next."  She looks a good-sized filly with plenty of scope and it will be fascinating to see how she gets on in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket on Friday.  The shorter distance shouldn't inconvenience her, as she appears to have plenty of speed.  If all goes according to plan on Friday, it will be Group 1 races thereafter.  In the longer term there's every chance that she will get a mile: her dam, a winner over 9f in America, is a daughter of the very smart filly Surfside (winner of four Grade 1 races over 8-9f).  Admittedly, the form of her maiden win may not amount to much (the winning time was very slow) and there is no way of knowing how she compares with her stablemate Al Naamah, but she is held in high regard and clearly rates a very smart prospect.  She is the first filly to enter my Guineas portfolio for next year (at 25/1) on the basis that she will take all the beating on Friday.

Stablemate Al Naamah made her eagerly awaited debut over 7f at Chantilly on 23 June.  Shortly before the race Harry Herbert, representing the owner, revealed: "Andre likes her a lot and she makes her debut in a conditions race. She's much more forward than one expected she might be, which is exciting. We'll see what happens, but Andre is very high on her. We hope she makes an encouraging debut and then we'll see where she takes us, but right now there are some very positive vibes about her."  Sent off the even-money favourite she raced prominently, quickened up nicely and won very comfortably in the end by a couple of lengths from previous winner Kenouska (one of just three fillies entered for the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin), the pair pulling a long way clear of the remainder.  Harry Herbert said afterwards: "I was very impressed, she did it very easily.  She wouldn't blow a candle out. Andre likes her a lot and she's shown today that she could be very special.  She's a beautiful specimen and has a fantastic pedigree.  I think Andre wants to see how she comes out of this and probably have one more run before heading into the Group One autumn races at Longchamp at the Arc meeting."  She's a full sister to Oaks winner Was (by Galileo out of New Approach's half-sister Alluring Park) and she is likely to stay middle distances next season, but she is a lot more forward and precocious than her Oaks-winning sister at this stage of her career.

Another French-trained filly is firmly on my radar: South Bank (trained by Criquette Head-Maarek), the first foal of 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty, made a highly encouraging debut when runner-up in the Prix Yacowlef (Listed), the very same race in which her dam finished runner-up on debut in 2009.  She has been entered for the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on 20 July and it will be fascinating to see whether she can emulate her dam by winning that race before being aimed at the Gr.1 Prix Morny and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes.  She looks a smart prospect, but she is bred for the dirt (being by top dirt sire Tapit) and it's possible that her long-term future lies in America.

Cursory Glance won the Gr.3 Albany Stakes in good style and is clearly a smart filly.  On the face of it, with just 2½ lengths covering the first four home (and the fourth, though highly regarded, having yet to win a race), the form might not look anything special, but the third had previously beaten Tiggy Wiggy (subsequently close second in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes), which lends some credibility to the form, and the front four pulled well clear of the remainder.  Cursory Glance is sure to get a mile (her dam, by Sadler's Wells, won over 10f) and she will be well suited by a step up in trip.  Roger Varian decided not to declare her this morning for the Gr.2 race at Newmarket on Friday.

I Am Beautiful, a half-sister to Rumplestiltskin and Tower Rock, has a lot to live up to (on breeding), but showed she is going the right way when breaking her maiden (at the third attempt) in a tight finish to the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes at the Curragh.  But with the first three home having won just two races between them (from eight starts), it's hard to get too excited about the form and she will need to improve again if she is to make her mark in better company (she has been declared to run in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes on Friday).  The Grangecon was perhaps more notable for the promising racecourse debut of Jim Bolger's highly regarded filly Pleascach (beaten three lengths in fourth); the Teofilo filly broke her maiden a few days later over 7f at Leopardstown and looks a very useful prospect (a Guineas/Oaks prospect, according to her trainer).

Beach Belle is probably a fair bit better than the bare form of her win at Naas last time (in a race that has thrown up some smart performers in recent years, notably Sky Lantern).  They went no pace early and she had to do it the hard way, coming from the rear of the field to sweep past her rivals inside the final furlong.  Trainer Kevin Prendergast is thinking of running her in either the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes or Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, which indicates the high regard in which he holds the filly.  The dam was successful over 8-10f and there's every chance that Beach Belle will get a mile.  Enthusiasm is tempered by the subsequent disappointing performances of the third and fourth from the Naas race, though the fifth (Newsletter) ran a blinder next time in the Queen Mary.

Queen Nefertiti was an impressive debut winner (by 4½ lengths easily, RPR 90) for David Wachman at Leopardstown on 12 June, beating (among others) I Am Beautiful, who went on to land the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes.  The stable had a better fancied filly in the race, who has since been beaten again (by Words), but the winner is clearly a smart prospect in her own right and could go next for the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes later this month.

Aidan O'Brien’s juvenile fillies are far from fully wound up for their debuts, so it's all the more impressive that Words managed to break her duck at the first time of asking (at the Curragh on 27 June, RPR 85).  As a full sister to Nevis (winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial last year) (by Dansili out of Irish Oaks winner Moonstone), her future surely lies over middle distances next season.  She looks a smart prospect.
By:
sintonian
When: 10 Jul 14 11:36
PP were 7/4 for the race tomorrow, now Evens with other firms 4/5.
By:
jamesp
When: 14 Jul 14 14:28
The heavily-backed High Celebrity proved a bit disappointing in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes on Friday, but I'm far from discouraged by the result and I'm sure there's a lot more to come from André Fabre's highly promising filly.  Fabre revealed before the race that he regards High Celebrity as a Group 1 class filly, but she was lacking in experience (having had nothing to race with on her debut) and the soft ground seemed to find her out.  Maxime Guyon rode her confidently but didn't get quite the response he expected when asking his filly to challenge the eventual winner; nevertheless, despite Guyon remarking afterwards that the ground didn't help his filly, High Celebrity still managed to complete the final three furlongs in a faster time than the winner (despite being eased in the closing stages).  She remains on course for races such as the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes later in the season and will probably run at Deauville next.  She'll be a different filly on faster ground.

The winner Arabian Queen had the strongest form claims going into the race, having run well from an adverse draw in the Queen Mary last time, and is clearly a very useful filly in her own right.  She was given a good ride by Ryan Moore, but I'll be surprised if she confirms the form with High Celebrity on a faster surface later in the season.  She's sure to get a mile and could develop into a Guineas filly.  The Lowther (if she runs) will tell us more about her level of ability, but for the time being I'm happy to stick with High Celebrity for the Guineas.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Jul 14 14:42
I can't see the ground being an excuse given how she finished the race. The real reason for her defeat was Guyon was outridden by Moore, who for my money is easily the best jockey riding today. Maybe Fabre insisted on High Celebrity being held up, but Guyon could've still kept her in closer touch and in my view it was a race won and lost by jockeys.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Jul 14 14:44
I should've said was outridden by Moore in a race run at a very slow early pace.
By:
jamesp
When: 14 Jul 14 23:48
I agree that Ryan Moore's tactics were a significant factor, figgis - he was able to dictate from the front in a slowly run race on board a very useful filly - and I think Maxime Guyon misjudged the situation: he was expecting his filly to pick up the winner, but she simply couldn't quicken quite well enough in that ground.  In hindsight, I think he was asking too much of the filly on just her second start; she handled the ground OK, but will be better on a faster surface.  The only reservation I have is that she has yet to participate in a fast-run race, but I'm prepared to accept her trainer's high estimation of her ability.
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Jul 14 00:35
I don't rate the winner that highly and think this year's Queen Mary was a below average renewal. I'd back the second to beat the winner next time but I'm sure a lot of people would also. I agree that we won't really know how good she is until she encounters a faster run race and, like you, I would respect the trainer's view. I've heard him talk before about sending horses over here because they wanted a faster run race than they'd normally get in France and think that was probably the idea with this filly so he's probably confident that's when she'd be seen to her best.
By:
jamesp
When: 16 Jul 14 13:43
The Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin at Deauville on Sunday has cut up quite badly, with just six horses declared at this morning's forfeit stage.  Richard Hannon's Kool Kompany (winner of the Gr.2 Railway Stakes, RPR 109) and Henri-Alex Pantall's Goken (winner of the Gr.3 Prix du Bois, RPR 108) are the clear form picks, but both are speedy front-running types and there's a chance that they might set the race up for Criquette Head-Maarek's filly South Bank.  The other three left in the race at this stage are Lehaim (beaten 4 lengths by Goken in the Prix du Bois), Mocklershill (who beat South Bank in the Prix Yacowlef) and Charlie Hills' promising maiden winner Strath Burn.  There's a supplementary entry stage tomorrow.

It's asking a lot for South Bank to win this prestigious Group 2 race on just her second start, but she's a highly promising filly and she could well prove up to the task of emulating her dam Special Duty, who won this race with identical form credentials a few years ago.  South Bank was not well drawn (11 of 11) for her debut in the Prix Yacowlef (Listed) and she had no cover on the outside of the field through the first half of the race.  She was several lengths off the leaders when she was switched inside by Christophe Soumillon entering the final quarter mile; she still had only one horse behind her 300m from the finish, but she picked up so smartly that she managed to overtake eight horses in the last 300m to finish in second place, less than a length behind the highly regarded winner Mocklershill (would have won in a few more strides).  That run marked her out as a very smart prospect and she's sure to improve when sent over 6f+.  Criquette said afterwards [I translate]: "I like her a lot.  She didn't quite understand what was expected of her, and she was very green.  It was very encouraging for the future.  She'll have no problem tackling these opponents [again in future]."  In anticipation of a big run on Sunday I have added South Bank (33/1) to my 1000 Guineas ante-post portfolio.

By the way, there's a nice article about Criquette in the latest (Summer 2014) issue of European Trainer:
http://issuu.com/anderson-co/docs/european_trainer_issue_46_internet_?e=5870891/8456518
By:
BJG
When: 16 Jul 14 14:07
Where u see 33s?
By:
jamesp
When: 16 Jul 14 14:14
A couple of the 'big' firms offered 33s this morning (on request).
By:
alleged22
When: 16 Jul 14 21:57
as a wolves fan and resident in the south bank, I might throw a few sheckles on it for sentimental reasons Love
By:
jamesp
When: 17 Jul 14 10:48
Mocklershill, who beat South Bank first time out, has been taken out of Sunday's Prix Robert Papin, leaving a maximum field of just five runners.  There were no supplementary entries this morning.  Final declarations tomorrow.  There's a possibility that heavy thundery showers will change the going by Sunday afternoon.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Jul 14 19:06
Couldn't resist having a small bet on South Bank for tomorrow's Prix Robert Papin at 7/1 (Paddy Power): I was expecting her to be around 3/1, 7/2.  Her inexperience coupled with the possibility of testing ground (due to all the thunderstorms in the area) are a worry, but 7/1 is simply too big.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Jul 14 19:16
Read the preview for tomorrow's race on the Timeform website:
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Prix_Robert_Papin_Preview_Bank_on_Criquette_Head-Maareks_filly
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Jul 14 09:09
I've gone with the Fav at 5/4 owing to his impressive nature of wins and the fact his breeding likes Soft ground.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Jul 14 09:10
Goken.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jul 14 13:21
Teddy Grimthorpe warned that South Bank would not run if the ground turned very soft.  The ground is now very soft, but it looks like she will be running Confused Doubt if it will suit her, to be honest.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jul 14 13:37
Not sure what to make of that performance.  We'll see what connections have to say.  She travelled well, but looked one-paced when let down and asked to quicken.  Perhaps she's simply not as good as I hoped, but I suspect she didn't like the testing ground.  Worth another chance on better ground.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jul 14 13:54
I don't think we can really blame the ground: the winning time was only three seconds slower than standard, so it wasn't as testing as first thought.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Jul 14 14:02
Yep, perhaps not G1 class.

Goken just not good enough either.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jul 14 14:16
On the other hand, Special Duty was much better on good or faster ground (she was disappointing both times she ran on very soft).  Perhaps they will be able to find a Group 3 race for her before having a crack at the Cheveley Park Stakes.
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