1000 GUINEAS (2015)

or maybe the word is out on the scintillating pieces of work they did at the weekend .. ?

More money for Qualify (or, more likely, bookmakers are simply cutting the price to avoid taking bets in anticipation of news about Found): she's now 8-1 with a couple of firms, 10-1 elsewhere.  Legatissimo has also been cut further (now top price 10-1).  Betvictor's book is now a whopping 150.59%!

I thought they were deciding today re Found?

60s on here for Qualify couple of weeks back was an absolute insult of a price. Can't wait for Sunday. Lucida the big danger and I'll have a bit on her as well.

It sounds like Qualify plus either Found or Together Forever (but not both) will represent Ballydoyle in Sunday's race:

The Ballydoyle picture for the 1,000 Guineas is less clear, with a decision on the participation of favourite Found set to go down to the wire. Declarations are on Friday morning.

O’Brien said: “We’re still not 100 per cent sure about Found. She worked this morning and we were happy with her, but she’s on her way back from a setback so we’ll give her a few more days before we decide. It’s not crucial we run her, but obviously the 1,000 Guineas is a Classic. If she doesn’t run at Newmarket she could go to the Curragh on Monday for the Athasi Stakes.”

He added: “Together Forever is in good form and worked well this morning, but it depends what happens with Found whether she runs or not. On the other hand, Qualify is a definite runner and has no issues with the likely fast ground. She’s one Joseph could possibly ride.”

“We’re still not 100 per cent sure about Found. She worked this morning and we were happy with her"

Obviously not quite happy I'd say.

Found just matched at 17.5 on here, with nothing in the Lay column.  Looks like she's a non-runner

someone bin trying to lay her all morning in small amounts only

Odd that there's been no corresponding move to back Together Forever...

At this rate Qualify could turn out to be the shortest-priced of the Ballydoyle-trained fillies...!

james it certainly is the best backed off the trio over the last week

Be a shame if Found does not make the race betting vibes on here now was say its very unlikely If she is not quite ready then save her for another day, its a long season.

Local Time may be an e/w play for me. Don't like the look of either of these races tbh

Listen, for anyone not in tune with AO'B .. Found is not running ! He's just letting it go slowly.

Apart from the obvious, (that such a top-class racemare / broodmare prospect) should just work well and then get the ok,

The key is what he said about her a few weeks back:

"The one thing is that she’s a big filly and while I don’t think she wants soft ground, she does have a round enough action and you wouldn’t necessarily want to belt her off really fast ground at Newmarket this early in the season as she’s a filly you’d look forward to through the whole year.”

And as for a 'classic' .. they only care about Stallions.

As Michael Tabor said last year - "You need about one and a half stallions each year" .. now I've never met 'half a stallion', if I did I'd hope it's the valuable half :) .. but that tells you everything you need to know about how they operate.

Found is great - she's a broodmare prospect, to breed a stallion. ! Newmarket, 1000 Guineas, couldn't care less. / end of.

It's the middle distance classics they care about. AOB said as much a couple of years ago.

found and together forever out

True Sint, and most of all the one stick that is the winning post at Epsom.

I have to say this years jamesp 1000guineas forum has been the most intriguing and well informed debate for many years, considering the whole form of the race now evolves around just a few top races from last year and some uninspiring trials this year. I think we are home and dry now for sure. No more mishaps with main contenders. I have Fadhayyil at 9’s and happy with that but I have not lumped on. With Lucida and the surprise package Qualify- jamesp’s wild card- I guess the others are running for places. Some contributors on here deserve a lot of credit for their analysis and reading behind the lines.

madhu i agree james is always a good read with up to date info thanks again and gud luck everybody im just on way down to newmarket shortly

Trap1 for Qualify

Think thats curtains for Qualifys chances with them messing about with the course/stalls alignment.

Why? There are only 13 runners. Is there any evidence that a low draw is bad (or good) news when the stalls are stand side?

Going by Ryan Moore's comments it's hardly ideal. I would concur with his opinion.

He's guessing though. I wouldn't worry about that.

now they've watered going stick readings suggest horses on far side will also have slightly slower ground to contend with -

I agree Moore is guessing but it's an educated guess.

ignore me, was thinking about tomorrow's race, issue more likely to be bogus on Sun because:

a) as Sankara points out there are only 13 runners
b) we'll have the benefit of watching what happens tomorrow
c) there's rain in the forecast for tomorrow night and Sunday morning.

Think before the rail movements were made there was a draw bias towards the stand side when there are 14+ runners or more and the going is GF. Results do bare it over a period of time, so is an educate guess from Moore, but with 13 runners and news rails it could be quite different, or hopefully quite even.

Intilaaq and Fadhayyil for the spelling double of the year!  G.L.

Lucida certainty now

Border Reiver
Intilaaq and Fadhayyil for the spelling double of the year!  G.L.
Commentators praying they are out the back, not fighting out the finish.

Happy with my 24 on Jellicle Ball now but she still has to improve.

tbh IN TEA LARK isnt to hard to pronounce...the other one though

I have backed Terror at big prices and if the rain arrives tonight I expect her to run very well.
I have backed Tiggy Wiggy e/w too.

Where are the stalls tomorrow please?

If you are drawn low it has to be a worry.

Stalls stands side

Plenty of rain due tonight - could chnage things.

Qualify very weak now - out to 16-1 on here.  The draw and the forecast rain (on top of track watering) appear to have done for her chances...

Got to drawn as near to rails as poss imo.

In an open race Terror if the anticipated rains come, could run well at a huge price. Course winner, good draw, tough filly.

I am the worst judge in the world concerning fillies, but MALABAR gives a good impression.

My system says Irish Rookie.
So far this flat season my system has given one 5/4 winner from 17 runners.

Fwiw the favourite Lucida is one of the most inbred horses I've seen in a long time.
Her sire Sharardal has Helsinki (Machiavellian-Helen Street) as dam.
Her dam Lura has Street Cry (Machiavellian-Helen Street) as sire.

Well like I say Malabar is the selection but Queen Nefertiti is overpriced, looks massive,  must have a saver and place bet.

5/2 and 7/2 the top two in the market looks a decent bet to me?

Has there been any going change at Newmarket this morn??
3 racing news programs from atr this morn & they dont get an update on the ground from Newmarket ffs

Why is Queen Nefertiti overpriced, in your opinion, metro john?  She appears to face a very stiff task today (for one so inexperienced).

I can't believe the weakness in Qualify (out to 20-1 now on here).  I guess people are expecting that the rain currently falling at HQ will change the going significantly (to her disadvantage).  Fast ground would suit her ideally.  Strangely, Tiggy Wiggy has received some support (now 14-1 on here, was 20-1 earlier this morning).

Latest on the going at HQ: "The official update from Newmarket at 10am is that 1.5mm of rain has fallen but the ground remains GOOD TO FIRM, FIRM IN PLACES. More rain is forecast to hit the track before the end of the morning." David Milnes (@davidmilnesHQ), the RP's Newmarket correspondent, reports rain in the town. He wrote: "Rain a bit heavier now at Newmarket with no sign of it stopping just yet #1000Guineas." (One hour ago.)

Cheers James Best of luck with your bets 2day, pity about Found not making it felt sure she would have won it 2day, rain taking the sting out of the ground would have been ideal for her, but there we are, onwards and upwards Will wait till learning more about the ground before playing on the big one 2day.

Found due to run 2moro in Ire   Moore rides.

It's doubly frustrating about Found, since she's now running at the Curragh tomorrow (in the Athasi Stakes), so she's clearly ready for a run.  I was surprised that they also took out Together Forever (perhaps because they were expecting fast ground).

Lucida, Osaila and Qualify for me.  I'll be aiming to break even (or make a small loss) if anything else wins.  Good luck all.

Yes, on both counts. But ready to run in a classic & this race 2moro is a different kettle of fish as you know. Was a bit surprised myself that Together Forever was taken out?? Would this be a prep for the Ire 1000gns for Found ?  The Oaks does come up very quick after the Ire gns ?

Best of luck with those 3 James.

Cheers.  Best of luck with whatever you pick today.

Hi james p, I think the surface was not correct for Queen Nefertiti latest, she promises more on turf over further and softer ground could help, Just my opinion,  but this is not a average renewal it looks poor.

Sir Marks ran a good race in a poor renewal of the 2000 guines, he was not alone, Queen Nefertiti makes similar place appeal on that angle.

Malabar makes much stronger appeal, but if I ever bet one of Micks, I always feel vulnerable.

"We've had 2mm of rain. It’s enough to freshen up the ground and it walks very similar to before the first race yesterday" - Newmarket clerk of the course Michael Prosser. Going now GOOD TO FIRM, GOOD IN PLACES. (43 mins ago)

1000 Guineas :      Backable or NOT?

My database covers the previous 33 years although not in depth last few years as results like Homecoming Queen was a put off.



FADHAYYIL

No winner that was placed in Rockfell


IRISH ROOKIE

Just the 2 runs and both wins at Nmkt.
Four past winners had 2 wins at Nmkt, but they also had other track wins
And ALL had a Group win and  more runs – which the Rookie hasn’t

JELLICLE BALL

Four runners have won 1000 with just 2 runs. None had run current season
You could take into account Ghanaati who won for B Hills 2009. It had only
Won a maiden at Kempton over 7f like Jellicle.
This and Redstart who beat her are the two most unexposed runners in race

LEGATISSIMO

The 9.5f win says it all

LOCAL TIME

Fillies that ran in Meydan over winter haven’t won this.
Trainer’s  Ihtimal had similar form last year and finished 3rd
Still unbeaten and must have a good  place chance but the 9.5fur win
Goes against the grain in 1000 as no winner has won further than 8f

LUCIDA

This finished 2nd in both Moyglare & Debutante races.
O’Brien had similar with very short priced fav Maybe 2012 who won both those races.
Three 1000 winners ran in the Fillies Mile race. They finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in the mile with the placed horses beaten only a length. Lucidia was beaten 2.5 lengths in 5th place.

Two Moyglare winners have won 1000 but they both had a run current season
And Lucida hasn’t.  Also the winners were both trained in England.

1000 Fillies that won on their first trip to Nmkt and didn’t win on subsequent trips
fare reasonably well in gns but only Cape Verdi managed to win

Looking at it another way fillies with a win at Nmkt and G2 win have won 5 gns - latest 2006. Those that ran in G1 (without winning) brings it down to 2 gns wins.

MALABAR

Prestige winners (Goodwood)  didn’t normally win gns until Sky Lantern won
But Malabar’s form hasn’t got the G1 win and has to improve a length to beat
Lucida on Moyglare run.

OSAILA

Another ponderable tied in closely with Lucida & Malabar on Moyglare race

QUALIFY

Seems held by above

QUEEN NEFERTITI
One run as 2yo not enough

REDSTART

Another lightly raced but Improver and unexposed. Form figures don’t win often according to d/base

TERROR

Cheveley  runner running on when beaten by below. Done nothing wrong and 8f likely to suit

TIGGY WIGGY

Three top wins last year but covered in my earlier forum comment
Pinza • May 3, 2015 11:23 AM BST
Won Lowther, Cheveley & Queen Mary
Not found a previous 1000 runner that has done all three (1983 onwards)
Nearest are Marling (Wragg 1992  Cheveley & QM) and Niche (Hannon 93 Lowther & QM) who both finished 2nd.

Yes it was good value at 20's but now laid my fiver off at 15's.

It would be an amazing performance if Tiggy Wiggy could stretch her stamina to a mile.  Clearly you're not alone, Pinza, as she's down to 10-1 with a couple of the big firms, as the money continues to come for her...

You can more or less ignore Qualify's run in the Moyglare, she's much better judged on her later Gr.3 win.

There has been far less rain than expected this morning, so there should be less emphasis on stamina.

I'm on Lucida each way but if I wasn't already on at double figures I wouldn't be taking the current price as I think it's roughly about right. I have her only 1lb ahead of Redstart but Lucida could possibly improve a little on last year's form, although it's equally possible she could go backwards. I have Malabar, Jellicle Ball and Fadhayyil only 2lbs behind Redstart with Osaila a further 1lb behind. So with only 4lbs covering five of my top runners it's hardly a race to go bold on.

Sometimes I think a hot trial can do more harm than good with a fit horse, which was probably the explanation for Estidhkaar's poor show yesterday, and it's possible Redstart had a tough race in her trial so whether she can replicate that run I wouldn't like to say. Osaila had an easier time in a slowly run trial. Like Lucida, Malabar and Fadhayyil's well being will have to be taken on trust. Qualify has a lot of improving to do on my figures, 9lbs behind Lucida. I drastically underrated Gleneagles from the same yard yesterday but unlike him it couldn't be said that Qualify has possibly just been doing enough so I'll be disappointed if I haven't got her measure, although some horses do improve more than average from 2 to 3.

Of course Tiggy Wiggy would blow these away if she could repeat her best sprint form over this trip, which admittedly does seem unlikely and I wasn't too impressed with her physically last time. However, at her best she's so far ahead of these in terms of speed that it's not entirely impossible that she could steal a lead and hang on while running a few pounds below her best. That isn't something I'm going to bet on but aside from my own bet she's the one I'll be rooting for.

LUCIDA AT 6S OR BETTER  ,decent form last season ,trainer knows how to win the big uns ,drifted to attractive price ,possibly over the top when btn fav last time , plus LOCAL TIME EACH WAY big  price, usefull form and could still be improving 16s each way

* meant 5lbs covering them, struggling with my adding up

Regarding Qualify I think the market weakness is simply that Coolmore don't especially fancy her. She's their only runner just because the better fancied two can't run. She was allowed to go off at 20/1 on debut and 50/1 in the Moyglare. None of which, of course, means she can't win.

Yes, that's true Figgis, but on the other hand she was their intended runner in the Fillies' Mile until the ground went against her.  That suggests to me that she was better fancied (at that stage of her career) than Together Forever, who has received more credit than she deserves for her slowly-run win in that Gr.1 contest...

The market was so strong for Qualify (down to 7-1 with Ladbrokes yesterday, 8-1 with other firms) that the current weakness is a bit surprising.

Have narrowed it down to eight horses but have never trusted fillies from two to three and will therefore limit my bet to a small each way from yesterday`s nice profit on Lucida.

Something to watch.

Jamesp, yes I suppose so, but there was never much money for her on here at those odds so it's questionable whether the price was just bookies anticipating or taking advantage of the O'Brien factor. Coolmore appear to fancy their Wachman runner more so that would probably add to the weakness of Qualify, then there's the Moore factor as well.

these 4 runners are my notebooks from last year, jellicle ball / local time / lucida / tiggy wiggy. not really been interested in this years race.
goodluck to all and well done on another good thread OP.

Yes, Coolmore do clearly fancy Legatissimo.  She must have improved quite a bit from two to three, but it would still be a surprise if she proved quick enough over a mile on fast ground (following that 9½f win at Gowran).

The Ronans, who owned Qualify last season, sold their filly to Mrs Regalado-Gonzalez a couple of months ago.  I guess they wouldn't have been tempted to sell her if they thought she was a potential Guineas winner...

Couple of bits ew for me: Osaila 9/1 & Lucida 13/2.
Gd luck all

Yes, sorry, Qualify is not a Coolmore filly, I should've said Ballydoyle don't fancy her, but how much significance there is to that could be debatable as most of the money would come from 'the lads' who usually only back their own runners. I agree about Legatissimo, she couldn't do any more than win easily but the form isn't up to much, whether she's really improved is just guesswork to those of us on the outside so not for me.

So that was shy Found didn't run. The Coolmore money, especially when it's a Tabor horse, talks.

Lucida ran as well as I could've hoped for and easily bagged the place money, just beaten by a better horse on the day that I struggled to get a handle on. No complaints about Manning from me, he did nothing wrong. I reckon it's only moderate Guineas form though in spite of the front two pulling clear.

So close and yet so far Lucida ran a great race but couldn't hold off the winner.  Possibly Kevin Manning went a tiny bit early, but it made no difference to the result.  These Coolmore horses are a nightmare.  Who (apart from the connections of the filly) could have predicted, even a week ago, that Legatissimo would win the Guineas??  Virtually impossible to pick on her two-year-old form.  Oh well, back to the drawing board...

Tiggy Wiggy did remarkably well to hold on for third and reward each-way backers, but she's clearly better at shorter distances.  There must have been something amiss with Jellicle Ball and Qualify.

As a Lucida backer i make be judged talking through my pocket and the sectionals will show if im wrong but i thought that if Manning hadnt have gone as soon as he did he would have won that

No complaints.Small profit.

Seems in these recent years there is often a knock to the stats.
This year it is Legatissimo.
By winning her last race over 9.5f she has broken the 8f win maximum rule.
That's racing though - you can never rely on anything.

Very fast time compared to yesterday`s 2000G.

Yes, it was a fast winning time.  By far the fastest that Legatissimo has ever run (on a racecourse).

Not an especially good time performance though, in my view.

Nearly five lengths to the third. Two high class fillies in my opinion.

As an Oaks trial it was a solid performance from the winner. Judging it purely as mile form I don't think it was anything special and for me there was nothing of the calibre of, say, a Sky Lantern, Ghanaati or Russian Rhythm in that field. I can see a few turnarounds in the fillies results in the coming months.

jamesp • April 27, 2015 3:06 PM BST
Legatissimo is 7-1 (from 14-1) with Power and 8-1 (from 12-1) with Betvictor.  Crazy odds.  Don't even know if she's an intended runner.  Presumably it's 'significant' money (i.e. Tabor or his associates).

Not my finest hour, to be honest   'Crazy' the odds may have seemed at the time, but for once the money was telling a tale: the money for Legatissimo in the last few days was very definitely 'significant'!!

Ryan Moore seemed to think that a mile to 10f would be the winner's best trip this season.

Winner looks a filly very much on the up & Moore well he is just different gravy imo.
Thought Lucida was home for old money when she struck for home, only to be overhauled close home she took a bit of time to switch off early & had to pull out wide to make her run, so might have been a shade unfortunate not to land the spoils in her 1st run this season. The winner on the other hand got a clear path up nearer the stands side & flew home under Moore without having to go round any horse in the race. Winner looks like she will stay further (poss 10f) Lucida wont get a yard more than a mile to my eye.
Wd any who backed the winner.

Lucida '' had to pull wide to make her run '' ??

Did she really ? Manning rode like a claiming 7lbs apprentice riding in his first classic while Moore gave a masterclass in how to do it  - coolness personified and only one of them seemed to be aware of the false rail provision.

Using sectionals (Last 2f compared to the rest of the race, Lucida ran 97.70 compared to Legs 99.58 suggesting that the latter ran more efficiently

A problem I have with some sectional hypothesis is it doesn't take into account the individual ability of horses when it comes to running sections of a race. Some horses can run faster splits than others but are not able to run an overall faster time for a whole race, even though the theory says they should always be able to if that speed is rationed. Did Moore really ride a better race than Manning or was he just lucky to be on the right horse? He started his run from further back than Manning but it couldn't be said that Manning was obviously too prominent throughout the race. If Manning went for home too early then look at Moore, he was riding hell for leather at virtually the same time Manning went for his mount. The only difference was Legatissimo couldn't pick up as quickly as Lucida but stayed on better.

Excellent point figgis.

I myself very much believe sectional timing much needed in the UK, We need to know not guess, the distance between horses at different points of the track, how far behind were they, how much of a lead did they have , how much ground did they make up, all this currently a visual guess and inaccurate information due too camera angles etc. THIS IS MUST HAVE INFORMATION.

Missed all the racing this weekend as I was trekking in Wales. Great run from Lucida but she was flashing her tail around when hit with the whip??

Malabar stayed on well for 4th, would have made my weekend if she beat Tiggy Wiggy

Stated on the 2k Guineas thread, and I think we all know by now, that significant market moves, in any direction for Coolmore horses should be taken big notice of, especially for the early part of the season.

BTW, AOB said today he is looking forward to Found in the Autumn. Very unusual for him to say that at this stage. Are they jealous of what Treve has achieved I wonder. Arc being the ultimate target? Looked deadly around Longchamp didn;t she with some cut in the ground.

https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/sectional-debrief-2015-1000-guineas...

Well I suppose im with 99.99% of punters in that the 1,000 winner wasnt on my ante post radar.
Fortunately was away monday /friday and my ante post book was finalised by last sunday and feel as tho ive dodged a bullet as I do like to get stuck into horses ante post that I feel are way below there realistic price of winning as per jamesp.
With regards to Lucida who was my next best after withdrawal of High Celebrity I feel Manning rode like  an apprentice .Not sure what happened at the stalls as not replayed back yet but he seemed to jink/lose an iron and then panic in switching round the majority of the field.
Swop Moore with Manning and you would have a different 1,000 guineas winner.

I'm certainly no jockey apologist, in fact I find the spineless media punditry we get for racing compared to other sports not just bland but sickening. That said, as a backer of Lucida I really don't see much to complain about, the criticism is all with the benefit of hindsight. I've read a few times that Manning was amateurish to come around the field, whereas Moore was a model pro, but Moore started out tight against the rail, as the runners spread out he moved out to the middle of the field, then finally ended up closer to the rail again. I just don't see why this was so superior to Manning's effort?

Yet another shocking result for ante post punters, Legatissimowas never on the radar as a two year old and can go down as a trend busting winner to add to the likes of Homecoming Queen, Ghanaati, Blue Bunting and Virginia Waters.
In fact, do trends even exist any more for the race ? Times have changed, racing is now a global concern,it's a long season and the first fillies Classic is no longer the be all and end all to the top yards. AOB withdrawing Found and Together Forever bears this out.Also, wetter and harsher winters are making preparations more difficult than in past years and maybe the race is simply too early in the calendar now ?
I think it's fair to say that, although firms will continue to price the race up months in advance, punters should beware that Newmarket may not be a priority for some trainers.

Is Found going to win tomorrow or what? Well drawn in stall 5,  AOB describes her comeback run as ''Lovely'' and it was Heavy ground so no questions asked of her. Going tomorrow will be Good.

Channon says Malabar has improved a ton since HQ but needs some easy underfoot so it should suit her better than HQ. Stall 9 is fine.

Some firms offering 4 places..will bet Malabar eachway on those terms, 14/1, but expect she won't be good enough, and may need further.