Horse Antepost
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Hot Streak 9/2
Shea Shea 5/1
Sole Power 6/1
Pearl Secret 9/1
Athough 14/1
Movista 20/1
Guerre 20/1
Mediciean Man 20/1
Steps 20/1
At 7yo he won't be improving but i'm sure Shea Shea has been unlucky in a few of these Group 1 sprints, by exaggerated hold up tactics from Soumillon. Last time out in Dubai I thought particularly so (read in-running comments), behind the new kid on the block Amber Sky. I took 6/1 on Monday and still think 5/1 is a good price given he was runner-up in this race last year from the ''wrong side'' of the track, and crucially Mike De Kock has said he gave the horse an easier time of it in Dubai this time around, meaning he has trained him for this race.
Hot Streak is clearly very good and is a worth favourite. It is not always the best policy to side with 3yo in these big field sprints but he has mixed it with his elders already. Jamie Spencer chooses him ahead of Pearl Secret who himself looks like he has a big one in him, but perhaps on slightly softer ground. Both horses ran very well in the Temple Stakes Group 2 last time.
Sole Power won this last year and is bound to be bang there again, and Richard Hughes originally confirmed he would ride Pearl Secret in the abscence of Ryan Moore who has to ride Guerre for AOB, but Hughes this morning has switched to Sole Power so now Olivier Peslier rides. Controversial!
Conditions look plum for Shea Shea and Sole Power but i'll stick with SS and hopes things pan out better.
Guerre looked very good last time out but did it in receipt of lumps of weight. He is sired by War Front so loves the ground.
Shea Shea 5/1
Sole Power 6/1
Pearl Secret 9/1
Athough 14/1
Movista 20/1
Guerre 20/1
Mediciean Man 20/1
Steps 20/1
At 7yo he won't be improving but i'm sure Shea Shea has been unlucky in a few of these Group 1 sprints, by exaggerated hold up tactics from Soumillon. Last time out in Dubai I thought particularly so (read in-running comments), behind the new kid on the block Amber Sky. I took 6/1 on Monday and still think 5/1 is a good price given he was runner-up in this race last year from the ''wrong side'' of the track, and crucially Mike De Kock has said he gave the horse an easier time of it in Dubai this time around, meaning he has trained him for this race.
Hot Streak is clearly very good and is a worth favourite. It is not always the best policy to side with 3yo in these big field sprints but he has mixed it with his elders already. Jamie Spencer chooses him ahead of Pearl Secret who himself looks like he has a big one in him, but perhaps on slightly softer ground. Both horses ran very well in the Temple Stakes Group 2 last time.
Sole Power won this last year and is bound to be bang there again, and Richard Hughes originally confirmed he would ride Pearl Secret in the abscence of Ryan Moore who has to ride Guerre for AOB, but Hughes this morning has switched to Sole Power so now Olivier Peslier rides. Controversial!
Conditions look plum for Shea Shea and Sole Power but i'll stick with SS and hopes things pan out better.
Guerre looked very good last time out but did it in receipt of lumps of weight. He is sired by War Front so loves the ground.
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Sole Power every day for me on fast ground, don't buy your assertion that Shea Shea was on the wrong side of the track last year, was drawn 5 and those drawn either side of him finished 4th and 7th of 19 runners both 33/1 shots
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I really don't get all the talk around Hot Streak. Much was made of his fast time at Ascot last year but for me it was pretty good but not so good he should be talked of as a Gp1 horse. He won the Temple Stakes at Haydock but I have him as only repeating his Ascot run. It was a pretty moderate Gp2 with a lot of older inconsistent sprinters not showing up on the day. I don't rate him any better than 3yos of the recent past like Amour Propre who went off quite a short price in the King's Stand but failed to live up to some people's expectations. Ideally I'd prefer to back something else but nothing stands out. Sole Power has the best past form but he's never been the most reliable of horses and at the age of 7 I'd be even less confident of what he'll do. I'll be laying Hot Streak and possibly be place laying him depending on how the race looks nearer the day.
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I have Hot Streak as top rated for the King's Stand ... both his Cornwallis and Temple Stakes wins two of the best sprint performances of recent years ( both on ground with a bit of give)and definitely worthy of Group 1 standard but on firm ground with an overrun fast pace likely Sole Power is likely to have the race run to suit for me
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two of the best sprint performances of recent years
Have to say I find that baffling but we'll have to see what he does when he gest cut again, bound to happen somewhere this season. |
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Grendel, you must take a high view of Pearl Secret then?
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Yes Figgis, a close third in the King's Stand last year on his seasonal reapppearance ... ran a little bit better lto on my figures and looks best with give also
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I have Pearl Secret 1lb better than last year's King's Stand. Hot Streak will be 2lbs worse off with the older horses next time, unless you subscribe to the theory they all improve at the same rate, I don't. Looking at last year's race I have Hot Streak exactly the same as Reckless Abandon going into the race, he also failed to make the places. In a typical year I'd expect Hot Streak to miss the places, especially given his running style against experienced speedsters. This year's race may turn out to be a bit weaker than other years so he could just hold on for a place but I still see him as a very unlikely winner, even if it rained.
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Figgis, I don't rate horses, I rate performances ... I don't work to pounds, I work to lengths per mile.
Just a quick look back at last years KS and ratings pre-race, I had Reckless Abandon as nowhere near the ratings that I have Hot Streak this year, in fact on my GB ratings Reckless Abandon ran his second best race in the KS last year in finishing 5th just 3 lengths per mile (1.875 lengths over 5f) worse than his Temple Stakes third which is his best run on my ratings |
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I don't rate horses, I rate performances
Same here, although I do it in pounds and it can sometimes amount to the same thing. I can see why some have rated his Ascot run highly last year, although I don't. I really can't see how his Haydock run could be rated particularly highly, it seems to me that those who rated him highly last year are taking a more favourable view of the race than would've been the case normally. |
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Looking back at this years Temple Stakes on my ratings workings spreadsheet I see I have given the going allowance of the 3 sprint races using a 3½ l success of a group 2 race as the G.A. I was happy to do this at the time as the winner had already achieved a rating just 2LPM short of the figure he'd get plus every other horse had already earned ratings same or above what they would be allocated. At a stretch I could drop the ratings by 3 but I don't like to tamper with my ratings too much and it wouldn't really change the top rating of any horse by much (only Justice Day by 3LPM)
I find Haydock difficult to speed rate as they use two courses outer and inner and I use two or three different going allowances on most meetings |
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I thought the Joyeuse race was disappointing for the class, with most of them falling into a hole and Moore picking up the pieces having been held up at the back.
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Yes, race fell into her lap, a bit like the Lockinge for Olympic Glory
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You thought the Lockinge was run overly fast early?
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most definitely, hugely ... they slowed to a poor time for a Group 1, same as last aumtumns QE2 that OG won
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unless it was hugely underrun, but as the first three home were out the back early I just presumed the others went off too fast and faded rather than got outsprinted ... haven't seem any sectionals to support either way
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Sole Power for me but not keen on Hughes and not happy with the watering, 15 mill of rain last night as wll
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15mm + watering. FFS.
Hughes may regret rejecting Pearl Secret now. |
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Lets not ignore Hot Streak's first 50 yards in the Temple Stakes . It cant be worse on Tues .
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Don't understand why Moore is on the O'Brien horse and not Sole Power? Is he contracted to Coolmore in someway?
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I think so yes.
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At this stage it is difficult to know the going. The ground has now dried out to Good apparently. I'm still sticking with Shea Shea and would not rule out Pearl Secret now. Might offer the best value at 8/1 +. Will wait and see if any firms go 4 places before adding him.
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Backed Sole Power weeks ago @ 8/1 but the watering has seriously pee'd me off.
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Really tempted to lay Hot Streak for a place but as the race stands he comes out joint 4th best on my ratings at the weights, and as two of those above him are 7yos and another hasn't shown its best form yet this year, then a place lay has become too risky. I'll be laying him for a win and hoping that either Sole Power, Shea Shea, Jack Dexter and Pearl Secret are on a going day or we get an improver.
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Steps has a good e/w chance imo , he was giving Athoug,( who did so well in Dubai earlier in the year) four pounds when fairly narrowly beaten at Ascot last year , on that form he is in with a good shout of being right there in what may be a finish of heads and necks gl
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I've had a small e/w on Es Que Love at 40/1, anybody else give this horse a chance?
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Another Horse not prominent in the betting to keep an eye on tomorrow is Rex imperator last years Stewards cup winner,
he ran fifth in the Cornwallis over as a two year old after fly jumping at the start .A five year old now as we all know this type can often come back to 5f with great success .Now with W haggis he looks to have been targeted at this race also e/w value imo |
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over five furlongs *
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The watering is an annoyance but Ascot drains quick. I would have thought ground would be on the fast side of good tomorrow.
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the front 3 in the betting are very hard to split, they all seem so consistent too. Can anybody make a case for one over the other? I think Shea Shea is marginally better than Soul Power, maybe half a length, but the drying ground will suit SP. Although SP beat Hot Streak that was Hot Streak's re-appearance and at 3 he should be improving
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Bloob, I reckon that ES QUE LOVE is a knocking good each way bet, backed it on Saturday in various bets, but missed the short-lived 100/1 that BV went on Sunday after the decs.
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I saw that earlier today when I backed it at 40/1, I couldn't see it on the history on oddschecker but one hell of a rick if they layed it
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apparently it's a Segal pick, he must be getting desperate if he's copying me! I'm hoping that the high draw is a plus but it seems to be more important in the big handicaps
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I have added Pearl Secret now at 9/1 eachway with sly-bet who along with 3.65 and 888 Sport offer 4 places.
He still remains a sprinter of top class potential for me. He finished 3rd in this race last year when less experienced and on seasonal debut. Hopefully now he'll be mature enough and fitter to make the frame again. Negatives would be Daivd Barron's record at the track, but at least PS has the course form. |
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Korral, not 888 sport.
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Guerre ,e/w, for me. Hot Streak may have a future but as of yet the form is not in the book.
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Adding a place lay of Guerre to the win lay of Hot Streak. I don't think Maarek ran to his best when Guerre beat him and this looks a big step up to me.
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Pearl Secret at 10/1.
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Easy Peasey.
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wd Uncle.
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