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unclepuncle
09 Jun 14 06:06
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,409 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Weather forecast is dry sunny and increasingly hot so must be a chance that Kingman might not run, or if he does that he will be inconvenienced by the ground. So given that time to look for a bet. Not sure if any of the French trained horses will actually run but I'm assuming not.

NOT @ 3/1 not the worst bet, but I can't help feeling he was flattered at New'Mkt by the way the race panned out - was 40/1 and not even stable first string?Confused

I'll be giving Outstrip another chance (heart ruling head perhapsLaugh)- he was in the worst possible place in the Guineas and I think that ride was one of the reason Barzelona got the elbow from Godolphin. Should love the ground if it firms up and if they put a decent Ascot jockey up the 25/1 looks worth a punt.
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Report brigust1 June 13, 2014 12:03 PM BST
Never a truer word about jockey's Figgis.
In think the last thing RH would want is lack of pace. How he deals with that will be interesting.

I don't know if you read the Monday jury where they asked R Hannon how he would campaign Australia and Kingston Hill. For Australia he said Irish Derby, King George and Arc. And for Kingston Hill he said Eclipse.
Report Figgis June 13, 2014 12:10 PM BST
Brigust, no I didn't read that. I'd say they were reasonable targets for Australia but to drop KH back a couple of furlongs when stamina is clearly his forte rather than pace sounds like madness to me, even if it's just to avoid Australia.
Report Sandown June 13, 2014 12:11 PM BST
So what is your explanation for those trainers and jockeys mentioned where they had a high success rate with horses ridden more prominently than average?
Report Sandown June 13, 2014 12:22 PM BST
So what is your explanation for those trainers and jockeys mentioned where they had a high success rate with horses ridden more prominently than average?


If we take Martin Pipe as the best example of this, according to the man himself he said that as he got his horses fitter than at that time other trainers di, through his interval training methods, he argued, quite reasoanbly,was the best place to be was at the front because he knew it would test the fitness of other horses. As he got better horses to train, he employed that tactic less because better horses need to be taught to accelerate & being held-up works better.

Mark Johnston is in the same mould. The way he trains & feeds imparts stamina & I know from discussing this with the man, he believes, correctly, that the fastest way to get from A to B is to run as close to an even pace as possible. Also. his best record is with distances from 12f upwards and in those races a less than optimum pace is often found.

But horses are individuals and the best trainers like Cecil, listen to what their horses are telling them and if a horse is comfortable on the lead, why not let him run that way?

If setting the pace, the jockey needs to be a great judge of pace but it does seem to me that most of the top jockeys prefer to hold up their horses |I guess for the reason that its easier to time runs. Also helps handicapping of course if you can win narrowly . Piggott was the past master at that.
Report sintonian June 13, 2014 12:27 PM BST
Brig, the argument is irrelevant for me as I think Kingman will win. I don't see that he has any stamina issues and I think he has the best turn of foot. I couldn't careless what the opposition will try to do. The only thing that is stopping me from backing him is his odds.

War Command would be the eachway bet at this stage as he was not fit in the Guineas or trained for it. They know he is at his best on quick ground, which he'll get next week, so spared him a slog in Ireland. I've not bet in the race yet so will wait until Tuesday.
Report sintonian June 13, 2014 12:29 PM BST
Kingman is trying to do a Canford Cliffs. Place in the Guineas, win in Ireland then the SJP.
Report Figgis June 13, 2014 12:43 PM BST
Yes, I agree with that about Pipe. As you say, he wasn't going to adopt those same tactics to the same extent in the better races where there is often more pace on. However, yes he was testing the fitness of the others against his own horse's fitness but it still comes down to the same thing, using his horse's superior pace.

As for Johnston, I don't see how anyone can argue with that belief. Unless a horse is a strong puller by nature and needs extra effort to get it switched off then going its own comfortable pace is surely the ideal for any runner.

I used the front running examples as obvious opposite comparisons, but I'm not really suggesting every jockey should try to make the running if possible, I'm talking about keeping a horse within suitable striking distance when an opponent is having an easy lead, and being prepared to strike for home earlier than needed if the race was strongly run. Also in races where the horse has a weight advantage that weight advantage is nullified if use of the horse's pace is left until very late.
Report grendel June 13, 2014 12:44 PM BST
Matt Chapman just said on ATR that a low draw will be a big advantage in the SJP Crazy
Report brigust1 June 13, 2014 12:51 PM BST
Sin I couldn't have War Command or Toormore before the Guineas so I see no reason to change my mind now. They just don't look good enough. It looks like a two horse race at this moment with only my belief that Kingman has stamina issues pointing me in NOT's direction. So I can back NOT and Kingman as a saver at around 6/4 or back both at around 3s on. I can back Kingman at 5/4 and lay Kingman at 4s on in running. I can lay Toormore and WC at around 9/2. It just depends whether or not the prices change on the day.
Report grendel June 13, 2014 1:04 PM BST
Kingman wins a Group 1 in testing ground over a stiff mile by 5 lengths and you reckon he has stamina issues Crazy
Report Millerracing67 June 13, 2014 3:39 PM BST
Would expect AOB will put in a pacemaker or two, as War C will want an end2end gallop on fast ground to be seen at his best imo (which mite not still be gd enough).
The meeting will prob want 2 start on gd ground & granted that & Kingman gets a clear run at them (but not 2 soon) I would expect him to win.
Race of the meeting for me (if all line-up) Cool
Report grendel June 13, 2014 3:49 PM BST
if 11 or 12 stand their ground, I still believe the draw will play a part ... I'd want my horse to be drawn in one of the three widest stalls ideally
Report Figgis June 13, 2014 3:57 PM BST
Grendel, do you not think that Kingman has too much in hand of these (aside from NoT who I have doubts about him repeating his Guineas effort) for the draw to play much of a part? Given a truly run race that is.
Report mac99 June 13, 2014 4:08 PM BST
It should be remembered that in the Irish 2000g the home contingent virtually gave up from the off  leaving the unlikely pacemaker SP to get on with it at what looked like a fairly pedestrian pace ,  although i do think  Kingman will get home well enough in the SJP  it is not an absolute given if they can turn the heat on from the off , mark me down as another MR CrazyCrazyCrazy
Report grendel June 13, 2014 4:16 PM BST
Yes probably Figgis but taking a short price you want everything in your favour, I wouldn't want him to be drawn low, stuck in behind on the rail until the straight and those drawn further than 3 from either side have a poor record (2/102 rnrs)

Ideally I'd like NOT to be drawn mid to low and Kingman to be drawn widest which could see support for NOT as the perception of a low draw is that it's advantageuos and vice versa, we could get some real value on Kingman under those circumstances
Report grendel June 13, 2014 4:17 PM BST
...this is all assuming 11 or more run
Report Figgis June 13, 2014 4:22 PM BST
We could also get some value on him if doubts creep into the market about him because of the ground. When the weather is good we can get some pretty fast times for the first two races on the opening day and even though they are on the straight course some people will have misgivings. I don't doubt he'd go on it but whether Gosden will run is another matter.
Report grendel June 13, 2014 4:24 PM BST
SJP is race 4 this year Figgis, Coventry has been moved to second on the card
Report Figgis June 13, 2014 4:28 PM BST
Oh, I didn't know that, still it gives the chance of even more fast times on the straight.
Report mac99 June 13, 2014 4:58 PM BST
The good run of  TGG at Newmarket  and his win in the  French Derby  are a bitter reminder to those who  supported Outstrip  at Newmarket that they were not outlandishly optimistic in putting him up;  he had plenty of daylight between himself and TGG  when they met last year . 

His Trainer was expecting a big run from him just days before the 2000G , it seems he scoped dirty after the run, yes he is a twenty to one chance now after that poor run but a penny or two would not go amiss imo
Report brigust1 June 14, 2014 9:01 AM BST
15mm rain overnight. Current going good - good to soft in places.
Report brigust1 June 14, 2014 9:02 AM BST
Good to soft - good in places.
Report Graeme83 June 14, 2014 9:58 AM BST
Toormore might run in france instead. It didnt work out for olympic glory. If i was the horses owner the horse would go to ascot. Id put my own horse before the jockeys ambitions. If they really believe he ran flat in the guineas, then run him on tuesday. Btw, these freakin clerks and waterin. Clowns.
Report unclepuncle June 14, 2014 11:17 AM BST
Course officials watered the course on both Wednesday and Friday of this week, with very little rain forecast ahead of the biggest five days in the Flat racing calendar.

However, Stickels was surprised to discover 15 millimetres of rain fell from Friday evening up until 8am on Saturday and has changed the official going description to good to soft, good in places.


What the heck did they water for yesterday - unbelievable.Cry

Kingman and Treve nailed on now then.
Report Figgis June 14, 2014 12:11 PM BST
If the forecast is right I think it could easily be the fast side of good by Tuesday afternoon.
Report sj June 14, 2014 12:26 PM BST
NRNB if you can get on with the Bald One
Report brigust1 June 14, 2014 12:48 PM BST
Not me nor SJ. You are not SJ are you. How about laying a bet ffs. Your prices are good sometimes but I can't get on.
Report sj June 14, 2014 12:53 PM BST
lol no mate,only took the sj (name) as it is easy to spell
Report propunter1 June 14, 2014 2:29 PM BST
A total of 15mm of rain altered the going from Friday's description of good, good to firm in places.
The surprise downpour arrived just hours after officials at the track put 14mm of water down - 10mm on the straight course and 4mm on the round course - but clerk of the course Chris Stickels said he was "delighted" with the unexpected deluge.

Stickels told the Racing Post: "We had 15mm between about midnight and 5am and the ground is now good to soft, good in places.

Stickels tryong to put a positive spin on his mistake:

"I'm absolutely delighted with the rain. We've a dry forecast from now and to be honest it would have been ideal if it had been tomorrow night.
Report Sandown June 14, 2014 2:48 PM BST
Brigust1 posted the feasibility study on Ascot course reconstruction- this is the critical bit

A comprehensive new drainage system was installed and gravel drainage layers inserted to produce a uniform base. Work on the new underpasses to replace the existing track crossings commenced in July 2005 and the new track was completed in August 2005.


Consequently the course drains quickly. In 2000 the first day opened on slow side of good but by Thurs it was good/firm. Main concern would be rain during racing but next week forecast is for it to remain dry. Like Figgis, come Tuesday it would not surprise me to find fast side of good, as it is for most R Ascot meetings. So, don't panic.
Report Sandown June 14, 2014 2:49 PM BST
In 2006 ... not 2000
Report Figgis June 14, 2014 2:54 PM BST
Yes, Sandown, and much better he's watered earlier than later.
Report brigust1 June 14, 2014 3:15 PM BST
I appreciate that S. I just think anyone comparing before and after that there are differences to be taken into consideration. They did the drainage at York and the first meeting saw course records fall. Yet last year the trainers, I think Roger Charlton was most vocal, were complaining about the course management because there was so little grass on the straight track with bare patches easily visible.

I have no issue about the watering it was just the slightly humorous remark that he had just put 14mm on then the rain surprised him. It doesn't matter in this instance but how many times over the season has this issue not raised it's head?
Report Sandown June 14, 2014 3:33 PM BST
I thought it was a good piece of research to find and publish brigust1GrinGrin
Report Sandown June 14, 2014 3:35 PM BST
Stickels would most likely have  put another 10mm on Sunday w/o the rain. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he found it necessary to water again during the week, at least on the straight course.
Report brigust1 June 14, 2014 3:53 PM BST
I have an industry paper somewhere detailing the lengths they went to with laser levelling, camber alignment and grass selection, but I have it somewhere I can easily put my hand on it. Not. Every little helps S.
Report Graeme83 June 14, 2014 10:36 PM BST
Glad that toormore takes his place.  He deserves his chance, and this race with the turn is where anything can happen. The big two have impressed on straights.
Report grendel June 15, 2014 10:30 AM BST
should be getting final decs and draw through soon
Report propunter1 June 15, 2014 10:58 AM BST
Only 7 declared for this race ...

Night Of Thunder
Kingman
Toormore
War Command
Outstrip
Prince Of All
Yuften.
Report propunter1 June 15, 2014 11:16 AM BST
draw

Night Of Thunder [1]
Kingman  [7]         
Toormore [5]
War Command   [6]
Outstrip [2]
Prince Of All [3]
Yuften   [4]
Report propunter1 June 15, 2014 11:16 AM BST
draw

Night Of Thunder [1]
Kingman  [7]         
Toormore [5]
War Command   [6]
Outstrip [2]
Prince Of All [3]
Yuften   [4]
Report unclepuncle June 16, 2014 9:48 AM BST
Well backing Outstrip in anticipation of fast ground and the race cutting up didn't work - he's out to 40 now.Cry

Hopefully the ground dries up appreciably over the next 30 hours so he at least has a chance to show his true merit - ditto for War Command. Kingman should be very hard to beat with some juice in the ground.

With just the 7 runners I'm leaning towards a place lay of NOT.
Report Millerracing67 June 16, 2014 8:21 PM BST
Little bit surprised that AOB has not left in any pace setters for WC ?
if its moderate pace I would expect Kingman to win comf.
Report sintonian June 16, 2014 8:51 PM BST
John Gosden is not approaching the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot with Kingman believing it is a two-horse race.

The highlight on day one of the showpiece meeting is being billed as the 'royal rumble', as the QIPCO 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder takes on Gosden's Irish Guineas hero.

The Group One contest will be the third time the pair have met this season, after Kingman won comfortably at Newbury in the Greenham before the Richard Hannon-trained Night Of Thunder turned the tables at Newmarket.

The bookmakers have Kingman as odds-on favourite to gain his revenge, which Gosden disagrees with, and he is also giving full respect to the likes of Night Of Thunder's stablemate and champion two-year-old Toormore, as well as War Command, last year's Coventry and Dewhurst winner.

"I've walked the track and it will be good to firm on the straight track by the race and good ground on the old (round) track," said Gosden.

"I'm very happy with him. This is a very good race, though - it is by no means a two-horse race and if anyone goes in there thinking it is they are wrong, I'm certainly not underestimating anything.

"The front two are two very nice colts, but it is definitely not just between them and I'm also not sure how the bookmakers have it priced up as it is. I would have it as even between them (Kingman and Night Of Thunder).

"It's nice when you get two horses who keep meeting, it's good for racing."

Money back as a free bet if the favourite wins the first at Ascot EVERY DAY.
Kingman provided James Doyle with his first Classic winner and despite that being on very soft ground at the Curragh, owner Khalid Abdullah's retained rider does not expect the quicker surface to be an excuse.

"I sat on him last week and we did a nice piece of work on ground that was just on the fast side of good," said Doyle. "He's a very straightforward horse with a lot of gears and a high cruising speed.

"It's going to be run towards the end of the card, a few races will have taken place, but I'm sure the clerk of the course will have it in good shape.

"I'm sure it will be nice, fresh ground and hopefully everything will go to plan as I'm really looking forward to it."

Hannon is also struggling to see why Kingman is favoured so much in the betting.

"It's going to be a great race. I've got no reason to see why the form from Newmarket's going to be reversed and I don't see why the betting isn't 6-4 each of two," said Hannon.

"Kingman was very impressive in Ireland but it's going to be quick enough ground at Ascot. I thought Night Of Thunder was a worthy winner of the Guineas and he's in great form."

"It's going to be a great race. I've got no reason to see why the form from Newmarket's going to be reversed and I don't see why the betting isn't 6-4 each of two. I thought Night Of Thunder was a worthy winner of the Guineas and he's in great form."
Richard Hannon
Toormore is owned by Middleham Park Racing, whose racing manager Tim Palin said: "We felt we had one or two excuses after the Guineas, but I don't think there will be any on Tuesday.

"I'm very much a believer in the science of the 'bounce' factor and after his big effort in the Craven, his first run since September, maybe he slightly regressed in the Guineas, turning out just 16 days later.

"Another potential excuse was they probably went a bit hard up front. People who know more about times than me say it was always going to set up for something coming from off the pace.

"Hopefully we'll find out whether we've still got the Toormore we all hoped and dreamed he was, or whether horses like Night Of Thunder and Kingman have improved past him from two to three.

"We'll find out whether he can progress into a champion or whether being champion two-year-old was all he's destined to be. If he wins then we can look upwards at races like the Sussex Stakes.

"If he gets beat, we might have to bob and weave and maybe go down the Prix Jean Prat and Prix Maurice de Gheest route."

Godolphin's Outstrip was a surprise winner at the Breeders' Cup but he ran no sort of a race at Newmarket. His trainer Charlie Appleby is confident of a better display.

"Outstrip blew very hard after he finished last in the Guineas and he then scoped dirty so we gave him a nice break, waited until he had finished his treatment and then resumed training. I have been pleased with his preparation since," said Appleby.

"He took some of the best juvenile form into the Guineas so he deserves to line up in a top-quality race like this. I'm looking forward to again seeing the Outstrip that we saw last year.

"There does not seem to be any pace in the race but if they dawdle early on that could suit us. He showed a turn of foot in the Breeders' Cup and the ability to quicken up could be one of his attributes.

"He is uncomplicated but the one thing that we probably won't do is make the running with him as he may have hit the front too soon when he was beaten by Toormore at Goodwood last year. I walked away very disappointed from the Guineas as he had been pleasing us all through the winter."

Another to disappoint in the Guineas was Aidan O'Brien's War Command but many from Ballydoyle improve significantly from their first run. He was pulled out of the Irish Guineas when the ground went soft and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

"On the day of the Irish Guineas the ground went heavy which wouldn't have suited him, he's a good ground horse so it wouldn't have made sense running him," Joseph O'Brien told At The Races.

"He seems in good form and we think he's improved since Newmarket. Looking at the Guineas now it doesn't look as bad a run as we thought it was at the time, he was only beat five or six lengths so he ran a good race.

"We thought he'd improve plenty for the run and we feel that he has, so we hope he can get a bit closer. If he needs them (cheekpieces) I'm not sure, he was probably rusty at Newmarket. He's a very laid-back horse, though, so if they sharpen him up a couple of lengths then brilliant."
Report Howellsy June 16, 2014 10:55 PM BST
Just watched the Guineas again and my reading of it is that Kingman left NOT for dead when Doyle went for him, and that the premature effort was just beginning to tell up the hill when NOT kept on past him. With a significantly slower early pace tomorrow, and with Doyle now aware just how well Kingman can quicken, I don't even think it's going to be that close. Trouble in running or caught out of his ground are the only ways Kingman fails to win, but both very unlikely imo. I think evens is fair enough.
Report Graeme83 June 16, 2014 11:12 PM BST
Howellsy i think evens is short. If you change the silks on the two market principals, then you'd get a more balanced price. I think anyone  will get a better price tomorrow. For folks with a few bob, 11/10 is alot better than evens. Some folks consider a 15% profit a very good success. I can see those folks waiting. I'm a small stake punter who lets any race roll. Caviar is eternally off the menu in my house.
Report Graeme83 June 16, 2014 11:15 PM BST
I dont want to tempt fate or encourage the mystic meg/septic pegs amongst you, but seconds after finishing my last post, i noticed the can of red stripe lager im drinking is the same colour as night of thunders silks. That changes the whole complexion  of the race for me, and i know think that the years beer supply is on NOT. Lump on, Crack on, drink on.
Report dunlaying June 16, 2014 11:56 PM BST
I fail to see how anybody could be confident about finding the winner here. Gosden Jr has it right ,there is nothing in it.
And on that basis Night Of Thunder at 11/4 looks to be the value bet.
Report sintonian June 17, 2014 8:31 AM BST
Gosden is a master at talking up other rivals. For me, Kingman went too soon at HQ. All the 11/10 has gone now so best price is Evens. I shall leave it but expect him to win today. Gl layers/playes!
Report brigust1 June 17, 2014 8:48 AM BST
This is the race of the meeting but sadly, for me anyway, I will be in the air. Work beckons and I will be away for 2 - 3 weeks so have a great Ascot everyone.
Report sintonian June 17, 2014 8:58 AM BST
A couple of firms have gone back to 11/10 Kingman. I've bet him now. Gl all. Cool
Report mac99 June 17, 2014 4:00 PM BST
Outstrip  10 to one for a place  , ground getting just right for him
Report sintonian June 17, 2014 4:31 PM BST
SPANKED them. Deadly.
Report sintonian June 17, 2014 4:35 PM BST
Handles fast ground. Gets 8f standing on his head. No ''dodgy pins''

Evidence rules innit.
Report mac99 June 17, 2014 4:42 PM BST
Fabulous performer one of the greats .
Report unclepuncle June 17, 2014 4:43 PM BST
Half decent performance from Outstrip - might yet win a weak Group 1 or maybe Breeders Cup mile?
Report Sandown June 17, 2014 4:57 PM BST
Top class performance from kingman. He looks the part and stood over NOT. Ground & trip not a problem obviously. As for WC, he would never have beaten Kingman but he has had too many chances now to reproduce his Coventry form but why did Joseph try to outspeed Kingman? Strange ride. Maybe they will step him up to 10f as he entries over 10f (Eclipse,Irish Champion) & Irish Derby.If a horse shows a turn of foot then he doesn't lose it but he won't win a G1 at 8f imo now.Presume NOT will do up to 10f.
Report brandyontherocks June 17, 2014 6:21 PM BST
Great performance from Kingman and it will be good to see him against the older horses at Goodwood.

I can understand Hannon/Hughes trying to make it a test for Kingman but why ride NoT the complete opposite to his Guineas win?
Report metro john June 17, 2014 7:34 PM BST
I think the hannon jnr will be blushing after that,one of the very worst tactical performances you could not wish too witness,what a waist of time.
Report FELTFAIR June 17, 2014 7:37 PM BST
Hey Brig, the non-stayer done good.Grin

It`s either humble pie or the big brown you have to eatGrin
Report metro john June 17, 2014 7:39 PM BST
The complete opposite tactics to his winning form in the Guineas, running on ground probably firm enough for him,and this chap will stay all day? why no Derby effort?
Report metro john June 17, 2014 7:44 PM BST
Feltfair,brigust was correct in the Guineas,he did not stay,he had used it in the furlong prior,the jockey rode it like a **** in the Guineas,must have thought he was on Pegasus(different tactics now)
Report Figgis June 17, 2014 7:49 PM BST
MJ, Brigust didn't say Kingman lost the Guineas because of the ride, he said the horse was a sprinter/7f horse.
Report metro john June 17, 2014 7:55 PM BST
Ground softer in the Guineas,i know what brigust meant,Gosden said Kingman would never run on quick ground(what does he knowGrin)
Report metro john June 17, 2014 8:21 PM BST
figgis any ratings on the race yet,My guess would be 129-130.
Report Figgis June 17, 2014 8:32 PM BST
MJ, from a time perspective there will probably be disagreements with there being only the 2m4f race to compare with on the round course. My own view is that it was a very good time but I still have it 3lbs short of Kingman's best due to how it was run, there should still be more in the tank.
Report metro john June 17, 2014 8:39 PM BST
Ok figgisWink
Report Millerracing67 June 17, 2014 9:44 PM BST
Very classy performance from Kingman 2day Cool
Won with a bit it hand to my eye & will take some beating over 1mile (best in Euro imo)
Think Jonny G is going to give him a little summer brake & bring him back later with the QE11 as his big end off season target (does handle soft ground well) maybe a trip 2 France before then?
Very Classy miler indeed Cool
Report metro john June 17, 2014 10:38 PM BST
Looking at his turn of foot today,I should think firm ground his priority,Jonny G been pulling our plonkers!
Report sintonian June 18, 2014 7:35 AM BST
MJ, I told you that BEFORE the Guineas. And in any case, the form book told you he handled firm ground.
Report sintonian June 18, 2014 7:38 AM BST
I think we all know what Brigust will say. He will say NOT ran below form due to the proximity of WC and Outstrip. He won't take account of the fact WC was unfit at HQ like a lot of AOB's horses are, or the fact Outstrip was scoped dirty after the race and blatantly never gave his running.

I think it is obvious now. Kingman quickened to the lead to soon at HQ and NOT picked up the pieces.

Fwiw, Gosden said after the race yesterday he thinks Kingman is so relaxed he'll get 10f. They have no desire to go sprinting.
Report roobuck June 18, 2014 8:37 AM BST
Great performance from Kingman.

Purely on form, he has shown a similar amount of improvement from Newmarket vs NOT as he did in Ireland vs Shifting Power accepting the variables in ground conditions

I think it's safe to say he wasn't at his optimum on Guineas day be it the way the race was run, him hitting the front too soon or actually not being suited by the course. It will be interesting to see how he goes against the older brigade but I'd be surprised if he didn't brush them aside.

He's having a break now so I presume that means he is swerving Goodwood?
Report unclepuncle June 18, 2014 8:51 AM BST
brigust1
12 Jun 14 23:14

Are you a politician Sin?

Lets put it this way if you were riding NOT or Toormore would you ride him to beat Kingman for speed or for stamina? And if you trained NOT and Toormore would your instructions be to run the race at a steady pace or a strong pace?


Presumably Brig will say that the Hannon team messed up by going too slow and turning it into a 2f sprint. Have to say I was surprised that Toormore didn't go on at 7f pace and then NOT to take over off the turn. Don't get me wrong Kingman would have won whatever they did but they certainly played into his hands.
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 10:32 AM BST
I actually don't think Doyle did anything wrong on Guineas day. He didn't strike the front until just inside the final furlong, which is late enough and if I'd backed him I'd have had no complaints. Sure, he made a strong move from the 3f to the 2f pole but I wouldn't say it was overly fast and was a consequence of being held up early. The alternative was to leave him at the back until very late and hope to get there with one strong late run. Personally, looking how NoT finished on the day I don't think it would've made any difference, he was finishing fast, not just staying on past tired runners. For me, the real problem was giving him a fast prep race so close to the race. He had to be race fit to be able to run so fast so what was the point? If it was just to give him more experience then the instructions should've been to win as hard held as possible.
Report sintonian June 18, 2014 11:54 AM BST
I think the Sussex Stakes is next Roo. It's not until the end of July so a nice 6 week break.
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 12:06 PM BST
Not according to, brig, he'd never be aimed at Goodwood with dodgy pinsWink
Report metro john June 18, 2014 1:00 PM BST

Jun 18, 2014 -- 4:32AM, Figgis wrote:


I actually don't think Doyle did anything wrong on Guineas day. He didn't strike the front until just inside the final furlong, which is late enough and if I'd backed him I'd have had no complaints. Sure, he made a strong move from the 3f to the 2f pole but I wouldn't say it was overly fast and was a consequence of being held up early. The alternative was to leave him at the back until very late and hope to get there with one strong late run. Personally, looking how NoT finished on the day I don't think it would've made any difference, he was finishing fast, not just staying on past tired runners. For me, the real problem was giving him a fast prep race so close to the race. He had to be race fit to be able to run so fast so what was the point? If it was just to give him more experience then the instructions should've been to win as hard held as possible.


I tought Doyal rode it like a 7f race,he did attack,too soon,that and the ground,the ground was slower in the Guineasm,which now in hindsight would not of helped this speedster, and did help NOT.

Report metro john June 18, 2014 1:13 PM BST
Timeform rate the Kingman prformance 132p
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 1:18 PM BST
MJ, if the race had been 7f he'd have left it just too late Wink
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 1:27 PM BST
It's also unlikely that the ground was too slow for him in the Guineas, it was definitely quicker than for the Greenham and obviously much more so than the Irish Guineas. All ground seems to come alike to him, although soft ground probably disadvantages his opponents more. I don't think there was ever any question he could handle good to firm ground as it was good to firm when he put up that impressive debut. The only doubts about fast ground were his long term soundness if he was asked to run on it and whether connections would take the risk.
Report pedrobob June 18, 2014 1:47 PM BST
going to have a very ordinary speedfigure for a Grp 1 yesterday, Kingman achieved plenty more in the Greenham and the Guineas from a time point of view unless the sectionals tell you otherwise, no idea about that. But on the bare final time, Kingman proved absolutely nothing that we didn't already know.

The idea that Toormore would make the pace for Night Of Thunder was never going to materialise, so as Gosden said, good plan by Hannon / Hughes to lead yesterday. But that was all the latter pair got right. They missed the obvious target of the Derby and went far too slow yesterday allowing themselves to be oustpeeded by Kingman whereas they outstayed him at Newmarket. A rare substandard piece of training / riding since the Guineas unless something went wrong with him after Newmarket which we don't know about.

War Command had a shocker of a ride off the modest pace, should have finished a clear second best on the day and very surprised if doesn't pick up a Grp 1 this season with the potential to stretch to 10f. If it wasn't Royal Ascot, you would have called it a schooling gallop at best.
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 1:49 PM BST
Ped, do you think the round course rode as quick as the straight?
Report roobuck June 18, 2014 1:57 PM BST
So what time should he have done then to match what he did in Greenham/Guineas? You don't have sectionals yet it was a schooling gallop? Genuinely confused - not difficult though
Report Masterminded June 18, 2014 2:24 PM BST
Wonderful performance from Kingman he was just so superior to his opposition. A lot of talk about tactics but I don't see how anything was getting close let alone beating him yesterday.  Was pleased to see War Command run well from a poor position.
Report FELTFAIR June 18, 2014 2:47 PM BST
Kingman`s fastest time against adjusted course standard times(i.e Newbury,Newmarket and Curragh)and on slower ground on the round course compared to the straight course.

Timeform upgrade well justified.
Report pedrobob June 18, 2014 9:15 PM BST
figgis, I had a similar going correction for round and straight courses.

But a tricky one to call as you mentioned earlier with there only being the 2m4f race on the "round" course to compare with.

I think I read last week that they are on the tightest configuration of the round course on the first day, so that would presumably have aided a faster "going correction" for the round course when the ground may have actually been slower than the straight?

But more relevant, the proximity of Yuften puts a spanner in the works of rating the St James Palace a fast time for me.

What did you make of it all?
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 9:36 PM BST
Ped, at a rough estimate I'd say the round course is slower about 90% of the time and I'd say that was the case yesterday. I don't think anyone can prove how much slower it was yesterday but my reading of it was the overall time was good despite a less than frantic early pace.
Report Figgis June 18, 2014 9:38 PM BST
Actually I had Yuften only marginally behind War Command and Toormore (revised) on figures so his position doesn't hold the race down for me.
Report grendel June 19, 2014 8:19 AM BST
I had the SJP about 9 lengths slower than a group 1 par ... but I have given my speed ratings an overhaul in the last few days and now use raceform median time where I had been using RP standard for the last 20 years. I wasn't happy that RP have all their standards in 0.5 second increments and therefore assume raceform must be more accurate as their standards are 0.1 second increments .... Figgis, do you use your own standards?
Report Figgis June 19, 2014 9:19 AM BST
Grendel, yes I use my own. I know RPs used to be off the mark some years ago but they might've improved since, I've not really compared for a long time. Raceform's used to be very good when Ken Hussey was responsible but I disagreed with the change in methodology used after he retired, I don't know what they're like now as I haven't really looked, even though I get Raceform.
Report grendel June 19, 2014 12:28 PM BST
Racing Post have fared me well over the years and I managed to compile accurate ratings using their standards but how can they be as accurate as Raceform if they are to within ½ a second, I have raceform interactive and use their data fields for my speed ratings spreadsheet but had to manually input RP standards, but I can have median time as a data field and not have to do this ... trouble is, I don't want to end up with the same ratings as their speed figures but if they're more accurate as a result then so be it. 

How often do you update your standard times?
Report Figgis June 19, 2014 12:47 PM BST
I don't update them apart from when racecourses come up with new distances. I used to wonder if standards would need to be altered over the years purely due to possible changes in the lie of the land over time but I've never seen any evidence of this with results and if it ain't broke.... I do need to do some work on Warwick, however, I've been a bit lazy adapting to changes with that course.
Report pedrobob June 19, 2014 1:43 PM BST
w i l l o w b e e on RUK claiming Kingman last 2f sectional was 22.28 secs, over 40mph?

Is that true? They even don't run that fast in a 5f sprint going downhill at Epsom do they?

Can only assume w i l l o got it wrong.
Report grendel June 19, 2014 1:55 PM BST
Dancing brave ran the penultimate furlong of his derby run in about 10.3 seconds so yeah, it's feasible ... they went slow for the first 5½ furlongs on tuesday so quickening up to that speed from a rolling start sounds better than it actually is a bit albeit still a great performance
Report grendel June 19, 2014 2:09 PM BST
Kingman ran 22.64 from 3f to 1f in the guineas
Report Millerracing67 June 19, 2014 2:32 PM BST
Kingmans final splits (final 2f) were very quick, apparently faster than the final 2f of the Kings Stand (Sole Power) ShockedShockedShocked
Granted soft ground I think Kingman would win the July Cup, he has such natural speed.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2014 1:25 PM BST
Nice from Kingman with the race being a 2 horse affair as expected. The pedestrian early fractions mean't Kingman wasn't tested so I will have to wait for my stamina doubts to be properly tested.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2014 1:52 PM BST
Of course I didn't expect Kingman to turn up at Goodwood. Jim McGrath made it clear Kingman was heavily bandaged on his first run this season so running him on an undulating course could easily be detrimental, I thought. JG knows the name of the game so I will have to go along with his judgement and the Sussex now looks like a gimme so maybe I cannot blame him.I just hope he isn't rewarded for his error.
Report sintonian July 3, 2014 4:49 PM BST
You are a flaming imbecile Brigust. You've been proven wrong on so many things this season and we're only into July. What a whopping ego you have.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2014 5:21 PM BST
Sin when you understand what a forum is about you will realise how silly that comment is. The idea is you put forward your views and are proven right or wrong. I thought with the information available as I have stated that Kingman would avoid the Sussex Stakes. It looks like I was wrong. No-one died. Pull yourself together.
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