Dante

Non runner, mac.

thx figg, just backed it half hour ago

Very unlucky, think it was only announced about 20 mins ago.

No problem with the Horse and foregoing a chance at eighty five grand , it can be a hard race for Horses who are not Derby Types , but that is the whole point of it and he would have got decent ground , ah well .

very surprised kingston not turning up with the ground riding how it is...can only mean they are not 100% happy with him?

unlucky that mac

not been keeping tabs on all the stable's runners but Lat Hawill ran a shocker in the French Guineas yesterday and Ektihaam was n't too clever at Chester (although he pulled very hard).

It does make you wonder...

sorry getting Botti and Varian mixed up, scrub that last remark.

well except the bit about the shocker!

Will True Story even go?

Potentially very disappointing line-up. Wish i'd held off buying tickets

I doubt True Story will run if it is Soft. However, now that Varian has officially pulled Kingston Hill out of the race, the main danger, they might be swayed. AOB has said Table Rock won't run on Soft either.

Yeh, I bet it yesterday at 4s along with jack Dexter at 12s so hopefully JD gets me my dough back.
Ante Post, DOH

I backed Kingston Hill at 4/1 also and am pisssed off to be honest. Trainer could've helped us out a bit more imo.jockey booked all blue on oddschecker...then NR

They might have discovered that he is a ten furlong Horse , lot of money to be won at
that distance  that d

I will shut up now

is anyone gonna turn up in this?? ffs

6 declared
True Story
Bunker
Arod
The Grey Gatsby
Odeon
Saab Almanal

Read this Ballydoyle?

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/respect-the-ballydoyle-derby-favourite-but-dont-be-blin-020610.html

Worst Dante I've seen in ages.

Sintonian - from 2010 no? Camelot burst those stats

No not really. It refers to the stables other runners as opposed to their shorter priced ones. Basically, it dangerous to write-off their other runners given the record of their performances in the race.

Yeh, I bet it yesterday at 4s along with jack Dexter at 12s so hopefully JD gets me my dough back.
Ante Post, DOH

Willie I am prepared to comer in on that  12 to one  you got on Jack , a burden shared is a burden halved  they say  , say a tenner e/w

Interesting test of True story tactical speed tomorrow , if something goes haring off
that will set it up nicely for him to grind them down in the home straight , but if
they go a modest tempo that may force him to go on from some way out , which offers a target for any Horse that can keep up ...maybe Bunker ?

Interesting test of True story tactical speed tomorrow , if something goes haring off
that will set it up nicely for him to grind them down in the home straight , but if
they go a modest tempo that may force him to go on from some way out , which offers a target for any Horse that can keep up ...maybe Bunker ?

True Story ante-post backers may wish to read this. By Timeform.


https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/True_Story_Lets_settle_the_issue

Some thoughtful observations in that piece of writing by j Lynch , he may be able to pull hard and still win today with Kingston Hill out of it , but if he  does still has a lot to learn about  conserving energy through a race  then SDS was on track to teaching him , whereas new Jockey  Fallon may indeed find himself starting from scratch , we will see later GL

I'm hoping for a visually impressive win today from True Story, just so Australia's odds don't go too short. I have Australia already 6lbs ahead of True Story. I agree that it was a decent performance by TS last time, but I wasn't quite as impressed as most people seem to have been by it. I thought the opposition fell into a hole, and while it's true he'd only need to improve a few pounds on that to be a possible Derby winner, I didn't see a lot in the performance to make me think he had obvious improvement in him. If anything else wins today I can only see Australia's price contracting further.

Yep would agree there. It would be good for the race and the betting market if something put in a high class performance today.

I sense it won't happen though! We'll see.

True Story can only lose face today,from a ratings viewpoint, nothing much to gain.

interesting race today - true story considering his keeness and first run around a bend is very short

i am a tad with figgis in regards his race last time but his keeness early in that race and how he came home to still win how he did, certainly marks him down as a very decent looking colt

today should certainly help us in regards whether that keeness was just down to freshness or is he just a headstrong character? and in which case progression isn't going to be easy...

however if he can run on an even keel and harness the undoubted talent he has i can see him progressing into a very good colt...fallon a good man to educate any horse and if anyone can restrain him to come home well then fallon is the man for the job and is riding well...

the 4-5 today makes little appeal however with his first run round a bend and his keeness still a concern and will be happy if he can just win being educated and if he can he will become a legitimate derby contender... at the moment for me his keeness is very much a concern in regards the derby but if he can drop the bridle early today i see no reason he won't win well and will become a legitimate derby contender

I will watch the race with no financial interest whatsoever. Arod takes a big step up in class but Peter Chapple Hyam knows the difference between a swan and a duck so I expect a good run from that horse.Bunker is interesting too.

one horse who is a tad interesting here is the james given trained horse odeon at 18 on here...anyone who saw him beat the 84 rated(winner since) o'meara horse last time by an easy 9l must of liked what they saw...

they went a good gallop and most horses were in trouble with over 3 furlongs to run in that race and he ran riot...it was only his second start and he could represent a tad of value here if progressing, as can see him getting loose on the lead here (unless dettori takes him on)and maybe just maybe the keen running favourite and also keen arod will pay if getting to lit up, bunker also going into unknown territory in regards trip...the grey gatsby is fit but is becoming exposed

a speculative one but maybe a small poke is necessary...with progression i can see him belying his odds and we are getting the right price to find out, so a small bet for me w/p i can't help myself with so many reservations about the other runners

The value here imo is The Grey Gatsby only beaten 6 lengths in the gns right on the heels of Toormore(replicating craven form)/Kingston Hill and War Command yet is the same price as Arod(pulled like a train in shocking WIndsor maiden cant get away with that in this company.) who has potential but couldnt be rated within 20lbs

On the good to soft ground be looking for a time close to 2minutes 12seconds to make serious Derby consideration.

Given the improvement shown by Night Of Thunder after his first race of the season if Bunker is anywhere close and he meets the clock requirement then he may be the one to take out of the race for me.

No bet but of obvious interest re Epsom.

good call geoff, wd.

well done Geoff.

yes, well done Geoff , big boost for 200 g

By the end of the season we could be saying that 2000g was one of the strongest ever. you never know.

2000g

time 128.99
distances reduced by 17y today compared to 24y yesterday

Interesting if they still run Bunker. Not beaten far.

I  agree just had a shilling on at 100.

I think he was beaten less a distance than NOT was in the Greenham.

well done geoff

not sure what clock G.Lee has in his head but went fast enough to my eye...looked a poor renewal to me and the favourite really was disappointing... he did get very warm in the paddock so clearly has his issues...

nice form boost for guineas and like stevie says it could end up being a good renewal...anyway good call geoff, shame as have always liked the horse myself but thought he was looking exposed and wasn't sure he would get that far but good to see someone had kept the faith

I have a 110 speed figure for TGG in this years dante which is 4lb above what I gave him in the Guineas, I have True Story running a stone below his Newmarket run, it's possible I overrated the Fielden but I'll wait and see what he and Obliterator do in their next few runs before re-assesing it as some horses can flop at York on that ground.

I've slightly adjusted the allowance and I'm now 107 for TGG so just 1lb above his guineas. Don't know why I post these as always seem to be tinkering and changing them for a couple days after the race anyhow. Anyway it wasn't a great Dante that's for sure, I was thinking a couple days ago that if True Story didn't run then it'd be the worst dante of all time and yet he did run and couldn't win.
Last years dante was a pretty poor renewal too.

Well done, Geoff.

I've read elsewhere the excuse put forward that True Story 'bounced', where it was also said that Kingman bounced in the Guineas. While I do believe the bounce theory can sometimes be a reasonable explanation (but not in this case) it never seems to occur to some people that they may just have overrated a horse. When one of their 'fast time' horses wins they got it right, but when one gets beat they didn't get it wrong, it was the horse that 'bounced'. Even if it was a bounce, then trying to predict which horses will go forwards after a good run is all part and parcel of the game, so they still got it wrong.

Figgis
17 May 14 00:02
Joined:
28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 3,852 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
I've read elsewhere the excuse put forward that True Story 'bounced', where it was also said that Kingman bounced in the Guineas.



who said this figgis??

A certain columnist on RUK website, harry.

ok ta will have a read

The only horse imo who has any chance from this race at Epsom is True Story. They had concerns about the ground but went for it anyway. Drying ground can be worse than soft ground, particularly at York, and theres no doubt he was starting to make ground on the winner when he went across him, making Arods finishing effort look better than it actually was. If you watch the replay when they turn for home you would expect Saab whateveritscalled to get completely tailed off but he actually runs on to the heels of the pack close home. That, to my mind, tells me the form is pretty poor and I certainly wouldnt be snapping up prices about Arod. Still think True Story could go close if the ground rides quick at Epsom.