French Guineas

Final declarations this morning. 

Latest betting from Paddy Power on the Pouliches: 7-2 Lesstalk In Paris, 5 Veda, 6 Xcellence, 13-2 Indonesienne, Bawina, 7 Straight Thinking, 9 Al Thakhira, 12 Avenir Certain, J Wonder, 16 Wonderfully, Queen Catrine, 20 This Time, 25 bar.

Personally, I think J Wonder rates the value at 12-1.  Christophe Lemaire came over to ride her final bit of work yesterday morning and she went very well; she has reportedly come on a lot for her reappearance win at Newbury, where she came from some way back and showed a smart turn of foot after meeting trouble in running.  I see no reason why Al Thakhira, whom she beat at Newbury, should reverse the form.  The Newbury 3rd (Joyeuse) and 4th (Lady Lara) didn't do much to boost the form next time out in the Guineas, but the 5th (Manderley) ran a blinder.  Lesstalk In Paris dictated matters last time in a very slowly run Prix de la Grotte (the key trial race) and is just about the overall form pick; she has twice beaten Straight Thinking and has a good chance of confirming the form over Indonesienne, whose best form (by far) came on soft ground in last season's Prix Marcel Boussac.  It's hard to evaluate the form of Xcellence, winner of the Prix Imprudence (where she narrowly beat Vorda, with Guineas winner Miss France back in sixth); the running of Miss France should not be taken at face value, and Vorda seemed to run well below form in the Guineas; I'm prepared to take a chance that Xcellence was a somewhat fortunate winner at Maisons-Laffitte.  Veda won a conditions race in good style on her reappearance but looks well held on Prix Marcel Boussac running and will want middle distances in due course.  Bawina is another lightly raced conditions race winner who will appreciate a longer trip.

Paddy Power bet on the Poulains: 6-4 Karakontie, 4 Kiram, Decathlete, 6 Giovanni Boldini, 10 Galiway, 12 Lat Hawill, 14 Muwaary, 16 bar.  The favourite Karakontie is already a Group 1 winner and made a satisfactory reappearance (just touched off by Ectot in the Prix de la Fontainebleau); he holds Decathlete on last season's Prix la Rochette form .  Kiram was just touched off in a four-way photo in the Prix Djebel (the winner ran quite well next time out in the Guineas).  Giovanni Boldini, last seen in the UAE Derby, makes limited appeal.  It's hard to see beyond the favourite.

Things will be clearer once the draw is known too. I know it was slowly run trial but I thought Lesstalk In Paris would have beaten them no matter what last time out as she always looked in command under the jockey and the trainer reported she looked bad in her coat before the race and expected a lot of improvement. I hope she gets a good draw.

An Aga Khan double with Veda and Kiram for me.

An outside (high) draw is a big negative.  A low draw is an advantage, but obviously there can be traffic problems.  Here's the draw for the Pouliches:

01 J Wonder
02 Indonesienne
03 This Time
04 Queen Catrine
05 Straight Thinking
06 Cape Factor
07 Xcellence
08 Lesstalk In Paris
09 Bawina
10 Avenir Certain
11 Stellar Path
12 Ice Love
13 Al Thakhira
14 Wonderfully
15 Veda
16 Mintaka

Oh dear - maybe I won't do Veda after all. At least her price should go out a fair bit?

Good draw for Lesstalk In Paris. Stall 1 for J Wonder. Traffic issues?

Kiram badly drawn as well in 14/14 - but Sid James have gone 11/1 which is almost double anyone else at the minute so I have had a decent bet.

Very bad draw that for round their Big ask imo.

I completely agree.

It's one of big frustrations with the flat - you fancy a horse for a particular target for ages and hope to have a decent bet and then it gets drawn in the carpark and basically has no chance.

I should probably have left it but if it went and won without me backing it I'd never forgive myself (mug punter I know). It was only 4/1 this morning so at least the price has been lengthened accordingly (by Sid James anyway).

Bawina at 7/1.

What an awful Classic the colts version is, no better than a Listed/Gp3 race on paper. Karakontie tops my ratings but sets a poor standard for a classic and I'd love to take him on at the price but I'm struggling to find anything that looks worth its place in the race. Hopefully there will be a big improver.

..

Why are my posts being moderated?

What makes you think that ?

Becuase when I type out a paragraph I get a message saying it needs to be approved by Moderators. Annoying.

Backed Lesstalk In Paris eachway, anyway!

Biblical rain there today. Trainer's ''second string'' gambled on and Won.

That was very frustrating. I noticed the difference in prices between the PMU and our bookies for the winner, so i tried to snaff the prices and none all that unmatched jargon came up. She went from 29s to 15s, and i  only got 40p on. FFS.

yep, well gambled in last 5 mins before race. LTP ran a shocker, think she only beat 4 home. J Wonder not too good either. Trainer really must stop hyping his horses.

Galiway for the next. The fav is  odds on, on the  pmu. I'll go with the 2nd fav.

Have to say that my Aga Khan double may well have come off but for two shocking draws.
Would love them both to come to Royal Ascot but doubtless they will remain in France for the duration.