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Looking through the 75 entries for the Oaks, and those at the top of the betting, to me this looks like a race that is going to cut up after Sundays 1000 Guineas, and lots wil ldrop out of the market, and others will shorten.
Looking at those potential improvers I first fancied TAGHROODA, who has a great pedigree for the race, and the HANAGAN and GOSDEN team behind her.
I really liked the debut win at Newmarket, and she remains in my mind.
However, I don't like the thought of her entry in a 0.85 handicap at Sandown last week, and her late withdrawal, I feel if she was top class the trainer wouldn't have had that entry.
She runs on Sunday in the Pretty Polly (home of OUIJA BOARDs storming victory run on her seasonal debut), and we shall see her merits on the day. Having looked through the videos of the entries, I think I have the winner of the Pretty Polly and a great price for the OAKS, in the Charlie Hills (Abdullah) trained CAMBRIDGE.
Her Nottingham win was excellent last season, looking to lose the chance of winning when 3 or 4 went on, but outstaying and lengthening passed them late on , R/UP passed late on (she had great pedigree, had form and fitness, and won by 4L next time out) with 5L gap back from runner up to 3rd.
The maiden itself could be good as both R/UP and 3rd are also entered in the Pretty Polly, so both trainers rate their fillies.
As a bloke living in Peterborough I never thought I would hear myself say it, but "C'mon CAMBRIDGE".
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Looking at those potential improvers I first fancied TAGHROODA, who has a great pedigree for the race, and the HANAGAN and GOSDEN team behind her.
I really liked the debut win at Newmarket, and she remains in my mind.
However, I don't like the thought of her entry in a 0.85 handicap at Sandown last week, and her late withdrawal, I feel if she was top class the trainer wouldn't have had that entry.
She runs on Sunday in the Pretty Polly (home of OUIJA BOARDs storming victory run on her seasonal debut), and we shall see her merits on the day. Having looked through the videos of the entries, I think I have the winner of the Pretty Polly and a great price for the OAKS, in the Charlie Hills (Abdullah) trained CAMBRIDGE.
Her Nottingham win was excellent last season, looking to lose the chance of winning when 3 or 4 went on, but outstaying and lengthening passed them late on , R/UP passed late on (she had great pedigree, had form and fitness, and won by 4L next time out) with 5L gap back from runner up to 3rd.
The maiden itself could be good as both R/UP and 3rd are also entered in the Pretty Polly, so both trainers rate their fillies.
As a bloke living in Peterborough I never thought I would hear myself say it, but "C'mon CAMBRIDGE".
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I don't see how that would be any more informative, a bad draw means that a horse has to use up some of its speed to hold a position which most of the time only comes into play close to home ... i.e. weakening slightly more than it would otherwise have done and converts a would be win into a probable second and not completely collapsing to a midfield finishing position. There will be times when a horse gets away with it like Oath in 1999 but in the long term it has paid to discount stalls 1 and 2, a horse will win from 1 or 2 again, maybe this Friday, but I wouldn't want to chance it.
could possibly be something in those draw stats, but think Marvellous has enough in hand on time figures that it won't matter where she is drawn.
Will still win comfortably if she stays and the race not come too quick
Will still win comfortably if she stays and the race not come too quick
@Grendel
For example if there have been no winners but 40 horses came second beaten less than a length would it still be a bad draw in your view?
The win stats would say yes but it would probably just be an anomaly.
For example if there have been no winners but 40 horses came second beaten less than a length would it still be a bad draw in your view?
The win stats would say yes but it would probably just be an anomaly.
In the past twenty five runnings of the race, only one horse, Eswarah in 2005, has won from stall two, and that was in a field of twelve runners. During this period, four horses that were drawn two, were placed - all finishing third. Two of those were in seven runner fields. In the 2013 renewal, Joseph O'Brien was drawn 2 on Moth; sent off 5/2 favourite he finished fourth. As is the case with Marvellous, there was suspect stamina on the dam side.
@ thornton reed
if 40/40 horses came off worst of those finishing 1st or second then they are finishing weakly which you could argue is as a result of using too much earlier in the race, e.g. having to use up more energy than its rivals to go from standing still to getting up to running speed
if 40/40 horses came off worst of those finishing 1st or second then they are finishing weakly which you could argue is as a result of using too much earlier in the race, e.g. having to use up more energy than its rivals to go from standing still to getting up to running speed
Of those that have run this year I have only 2lbs between five runners, Ihtimal 1lb ahead of Tarfasha and Taghrooda, with Marvellous and Marsh Daisy a further 1lb behind. None of them have run to the usual standard I look for and with only 2lbs covering those 5 fillies none appeal as a bet. Possibly one will improve more than the others for the step up in trip but I have no idea which one. My intention was to oppose Taghrooda purely because of poor value, but as Marvellous has become the new favourite I will be opposing her instead. I don't know why people have rated her Irish Guineas highly as in my view it was a very moderate overall time for the race, she was being pushed to keep pace for most of the way and only appeared to win easily as the race collapsed. Even though she has proved herself on soft ground I wouldn't be tempted to back her as of those 5 runners I feel she is the least likely to improve and at the price I'll be laying her.
The filly who marginally tops my figures is Amazing Maria, I have no proof of what kind of form she's in this year, I don't know if she'll stay the trip or act on the ground if it turns soft, and her lack of a prep run is obviously not ideal, but at the price I have to have a few quid on her.
The filly who marginally tops my figures is Amazing Maria, I have no proof of what kind of form she's in this year, I don't know if she'll stay the trip or act on the ground if it turns soft, and her lack of a prep run is obviously not ideal, but at the price I have to have a few quid on her.
Glad 2 see Taghrooda get a fair draw in stall (9) & hope the ground in no slower than gd come Fri, like her chances myself. Rate the other Hamdan filly the main danger in my book, again a filly who would want the ground gd or faster to show her best.
Already backed Tag ante-p at 4s & granted gd ground or better on Oaks day, will play on her again (expect 4s the field on Fri morn) with a saver on the other Hamdan filly Tarfasha. No more rain PLEASE.
Already backed Tag ante-p at 4s & granted gd ground or better on Oaks day, will play on her again (expect 4s the field on Fri morn) with a saver on the other Hamdan filly Tarfasha. No more rain PLEASE.
Looking at those horses drawn 2 in the Oaks since 2000, they all finished where they should have done imo bar The Fugue who was given a poor ride by Buick.
Midday beaten a head by Sariska, but can't think that any of them were beaten by the draw
YEAR pos sp horse trainer jockey
2000 10 33/1 Clog Dance B W Hills John Reid
2001 12 20/1 Candice Ed Dunlop T Quinn
2002 12 33/1 Maryinsky A P O'Brien Richard Hughes
2003 7 16/1 Santa Sophia John Dunlop Pat Eddery
2004 3 100/30 Punctilious Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori
2005 1 11/4 Eswarah Michael Jarvis Richard Hills
2006 9 33/1 Prowess B W Hills Michael Hills
2007 12 66/1 Nell Gwyn A P O'Brien Neil Callan
2008 11 40/1 Miracle Seeker Clive Cox Adam Kirby
2009 2 5/1 Midday Sir Henry Cecil Tom Queally
2010 3 13/2 Rumoush Marcus Tregoning Richard Hills
2011 3 25/1 Izzi Top John Gosden William Buick
2012 3 11/4 The Fugue John Gosden William Buick
2013 4 5/2 Moth A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien
Midday beaten a head by Sariska, but can't think that any of them were beaten by the draw
YEAR pos sp horse trainer jockey
2000 10 33/1 Clog Dance B W Hills John Reid
2001 12 20/1 Candice Ed Dunlop T Quinn
2002 12 33/1 Maryinsky A P O'Brien Richard Hughes
2003 7 16/1 Santa Sophia John Dunlop Pat Eddery
2004 3 100/30 Punctilious Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori
2005 1 11/4 Eswarah Michael Jarvis Richard Hills
2006 9 33/1 Prowess B W Hills Michael Hills
2007 12 66/1 Nell Gwyn A P O'Brien Neil Callan
2008 11 40/1 Miracle Seeker Clive Cox Adam Kirby
2009 2 5/1 Midday Sir Henry Cecil Tom Queally
2010 3 13/2 Rumoush Marcus Tregoning Richard Hills
2011 3 25/1 Izzi Top John Gosden William Buick
2012 3 11/4 The Fugue John Gosden William Buick
2013 4 5/2 Moth A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien
Secret Gesture was stall 1 last year and was runner up
Moth was stall 2 and 3rd
Moth was stall 2 and 3rd
I'd add that the draw for Marvellous isn't a factor at all in me laying her, I have never considered the draw when betting in the Derby or Oaks, maybe I'm wrong to ignore it but results have never persuaded me that it needs to be considered.
I've got Marvellous at 7/1 and am concerned about draw.
Will be having ews on Honor Bound at 25-1 and Regardez at 50-1.
Will be having ews on Honor Bound at 25-1 and Regardez at 50-1.
Dont think stall 1&2 would be a big prob if your on a horse who likes to go forward & sit handy, as long as you brake well from the gates.
pointing out horses finishing second or third as some sort of indication that there is no draw bias is futile, if back in 2007 you'd looked at the 7 years from 2000-2006 you'd have seen from 98 horses drawn 1 or 2 that 1 horse won and 15 horses finished either 2nd or third and if you'd dismissed the draw bias on the basis of the placed horses you would have spent the next seven years (2007-2013) with 82 horses running from stalls 1 or 2 and 1 win and 15 placed efforts between them and betting regardless of this stat
aiden o'brien has habbit of using some of his best horses to set pace in classics.Do you think dazzling who looks a miler is in to set a strong pace for his fav marvellous
Can't believe some punters think there is no draw bias. Yes, a load of horses have placed, but the stalls 1 and 2 HAVE been enough to prevent a horse from actually winning. Early on in the race the jockey is presented with a tactical dilema as referred to in Ralph Beckett's blog I posted earlier. It is worth considering if you are taking short prices.
Yes, a load of horses have placed, but the stalls 1 and 2 HAVE been enough to prevent a horse from actually winning.
sint, which horses drawn 1 or 2 since 2000 do you think should have won but were beaten by the draw?
Drawn 2, can only see the The Fugue, but that was jockey error (on several occasions Buick took the wrong option in the race, not just when he decided to rein back and squeeze himself out having broken well from the stalls)
sint, which horses drawn 1 or 2 since 2000 do you think should have won but were beaten by the draw?
Drawn 2, can only see the The Fugue, but that was jockey error (on several occasions Buick took the wrong option in the race, not just when he decided to rein back and squeeze himself out having broken well from the stalls)
pedrobob, it's not only the Oaks mate ... it's every 1m4f race with double figure field sizes over the C/D going back many many years ... when 64 horses start in single figure odds over 14 years and only 2 are succesfull of the 21 that manage to place then something has to be significant about that and not just a result of chance. You only have to look at how the first couple of furlongs are run to see why it's significant with a right bend after 2 furlongs of an uphill start.
The Fugue is one for certain. Why do you think the errors came about Pedro? Bad draws force the jockey to make pressurised decisions. He may have got it wrong but that's the dilema they face.
Talent beat Secret Gesture 3.75 lengths, but the trainer is adamant it would have been closer but for the draw. Even today he is saying he is glad his two runners this year have outside draws.
How do you explain a high percentage of winners coming from higher numbers? It's not a small sample or a short period of time.
Talent beat Secret Gesture 3.75 lengths, but the trainer is adamant it would have been closer but for the draw. Even today he is saying he is glad his two runners this year have outside draws.
How do you explain a high percentage of winners coming from higher numbers? It's not a small sample or a short period of time.
Was at HQ when Taghrooda watered the track on Guineas day and was very impressed with her both in the preliminaries and on the track. Not to bothered about the ease in the ground and classically bred. Think she'll take care of this lot and she certainly wasn't stopping last time out at the business end.
I am on Madame Chiang and couldn't care less where she is drawn. She is going to be held up so you take it on board that you need a bit of luck. However the ground and stamina will play in to her hands and I see her staying on past a lot of tired horses late on. I'm sure with so many runners they will go off very fast!
Secret Gesture was beaten by a better horse. Talent came into the straight full of running. The jockey's only problem was holding her back. Then she a bit trouble in running before she got a clear run.
Looks like the ground is going to be what Dermot Weld wants for Tarfasha, even though she has won on yielding-soft anyway.
Taghrooda over 4/1 on here which is more reasonable.
Taghrooda over 4/1 on here which is more reasonable.
It's funny reading the blog from Ralph as watching the race it appears she is never pushed to run faster than she wants. She broke well, jim puts her in a nice position and settles into the bridle.
You have to look at where a horse wants to be in a race. How she/he needs to be ridden. If they need to be held up then I can not see the draw having a huge affect. If they need to be handy then they have to break well. If they can break well then being on the outside around the first bend will give you the rail for the remainder of the race.
Any way this is about Marvellous being in trap 2. Surely she will be held up, so will being drawn 2 be a massive problem for her?
People were put off Treve in last years Arc because she could not win from her draw.
You have to look at where a horse wants to be in a race. How she/he needs to be ridden. If they need to be held up then I can not see the draw having a huge affect. If they need to be handy then they have to break well. If they can break well then being on the outside around the first bend will give you the rail for the remainder of the race.
Any way this is about Marvellous being in trap 2. Surely she will be held up, so will being drawn 2 be a massive problem for her?
People were put off Treve in last years Arc because she could not win from her draw.
a hold up horse will have a far better chance of winning if drawn mid to high, a quick query on raceform interactive shows that in races over the C/D with 12 or more runners since 2006 those drawn 1-5 with "held up" in their comments in running there were 58 qualifiers (not allowing for non runners) and only 2 winners and a £40 loss to £1 level stakes (both on the same day, bureaucrat and new approach 2008 derby day), a similar search for those drawn 6 and above shows 13 winners from 127 qualifiers and a level stakes profit of £44.50. With regards to Treve, the high draws are only disadvantaged on fast ground.
Based on various factors such as breeding, potential, form and visual impression I think the Oaks is between 4 horses: -
Taghrooda
Tarfasha
Marsh Daisy
Inchila
Difficult to split the Maktoum pair, especially as they are so well bred but I will just side with Taghrooda as she had the visual wow factor about her win in the Pretty Polly even though the form has been seriously let down since. The extra 2 furlongs will surely see her put in a seriously strong performance and I think she will be hard to beat. Marsh Daisy has been underestimated in the market, I think she should be nearer the 8/1 mark and I think she has strong ew claims. I think Inchila has place chances at a big price.
Good luck all.
Taghrooda
Tarfasha
Marsh Daisy
Inchila
Difficult to split the Maktoum pair, especially as they are so well bred but I will just side with Taghrooda as she had the visual wow factor about her win in the Pretty Polly even though the form has been seriously let down since. The extra 2 furlongs will surely see her put in a seriously strong performance and I think she will be hard to beat. Marsh Daisy has been underestimated in the market, I think she should be nearer the 8/1 mark and I think she has strong ew claims. I think Inchila has place chances at a big price.
Good luck all.
How can you possibly leave out Marvellous from that list?
Breeding - by Galileo
Potential and Form - Classic winner already
Visual Impression - watch the video last month
Breeding - by Galileo
Potential and Form - Classic winner already
Visual Impression - watch the video last month
Marvellous may be by Galileo (so was Frankel)but there are stamina doubts on her dam side
Weak looking Irish Guineas run on terrible ground. Not for me at 3/1!!
Throw in the fact she has stall 2 and JOB takes over from Ryan Moore. Her odds have little appeal imo.
I'm quite pleased with the weather f/c and the ground and draw for Tarfasha. Also the only horse to have run from that Naas race since was Euphrasia and she ran a cracker behind Noble Mission.
Feeling pretty chipper here, Stevie. I think she is going to go very close. Decent ante-post prices snaffled for a change! 
Of the others I think Taghrooda is the one I'm most afrad of as she is the could be anything horse and she's bred to be an oaks filly and her profile is the one I'm most drawn too but the price is not big enough for me.
Marvellous is the form horse on her Irish guineas run but I'm not sure if she was as good as that form makes her look as
it was a strong pace in testing ground and she just seemed the one most suited to it and draw not good.
Ihtimal is a really likable filly who always seems to give her best and she has a decent chance.
Marsh Daisy ans Madame Chiang could have done with more rain to bring their stamina into play and I think they may drift now.
Possibles at bigger prices for me would be Volume who won in game fashion last time and the dam is related to Vertical Speed who was runner up to Silver Patriach in the leger.
Palace could also step up on what she's done now facing better ground and you have to respect O'brien/moore combination.
Marvellous is the form horse on her Irish guineas run but I'm not sure if she was as good as that form makes her look as
it was a strong pace in testing ground and she just seemed the one most suited to it and draw not good.
Ihtimal is a really likable filly who always seems to give her best and she has a decent chance.
Marsh Daisy ans Madame Chiang could have done with more rain to bring their stamina into play and I think they may drift now.
Possibles at bigger prices for me would be Volume who won in game fashion last time and the dam is related to Vertical Speed who was runner up to Silver Patriach in the leger.
Palace could also step up on what she's done now facing better ground and you have to respect O'brien/moore combination.
So you would have Inchila on a short list and not Marvellous...each to their own I suppose
Why does nobody, apart from mac99, give Amazing Maria a mention? Is it simply down to the less than ideal prep or do people think she's not good enough? I'd be surprised if anybody could rate her much lower than what we've seen this year.
She's not run since August last year Figgis and missed the Guineas. Hard to know what to expect.
think her stable has struggled for winners
aswell,this season,Figgis.
aswell,this season,Figgis.
Yes but all that considered her price has to be too big, as the fillies at the head of the market look much of a muchness, barring the possibility of one improving.
Figgis/The Collector
The reason I don't have either Marvellous or Amazing Maria on my list is because I very much doubt that either will stay the trip. In my experience horses often get their stamina from their mothers side and I just can't see either of these two horses staying the trip. As ever just an opinion and breeding isn't an exact science as Rule of Law showed in winning the St Leger. Also I never like it when fillies jump up in distance from a mile to a mile and a half for the Oaks - just personal preference for a horse to have run over 10 furlongs beforehand, I just like it from a conditioning aspect given it's a tough race for a 3 yr old. Personally I think Marvellous is a place lay at her current odds. I think her last run was average on the clock and I seriously question whether she will get the trip. When Was won the Oaks arguably with similarish stamina doubts (more stoutly bred by her sire) she was a 20/1 chance so the risk was worth the reward (I didn't back her just making that point). Obviously Marvellous is going to be shorter as she won the Irish 1000 guineas but is she really a 3/1 chance? Not for me.
The reason I don't have either Marvellous or Amazing Maria on my list is because I very much doubt that either will stay the trip. In my experience horses often get their stamina from their mothers side and I just can't see either of these two horses staying the trip. As ever just an opinion and breeding isn't an exact science as Rule of Law showed in winning the St Leger. Also I never like it when fillies jump up in distance from a mile to a mile and a half for the Oaks - just personal preference for a horse to have run over 10 furlongs beforehand, I just like it from a conditioning aspect given it's a tough race for a 3 yr old. Personally I think Marvellous is a place lay at her current odds. I think her last run was average on the clock and I seriously question whether she will get the trip. When Was won the Oaks arguably with similarish stamina doubts (more stoutly bred by her sire) she was a 20/1 chance so the risk was worth the reward (I didn't back her just making that point). Obviously Marvellous is going to be shorter as she won the Irish 1000 guineas but is she really a 3/1 chance? Not for me.
Swagger, yes fair enough, I have no idea if she'll get the trip. Ed Dunlop thinks she'll get 10f but doesn't know about 12f. As I have no racecourse evidence of what form she's in this year I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she finished first or last, but as she still tops my ratings here I couldn't let her go unbacked at those prices.
Amazing Maria's dam won over 6f and she's related to sprinters in the US, so doubtful for 12f on that side of it. Would quite like her chances in the Coronation at Ascot though.
i'd be really concerned about the non prep for amazing maria...i have to say i had her down for this at the end of last season but lack of a prep run, the ground being on the slower side and the trainers horses having the plague are off putting...she could surprise a few but with the trainer how he is at present and lack of a run a concern, she couldn't be backed with any confidence as much as i like her as an individual
THE Investec Oaks will, in all likelihood, be run on ground described as good - that was the prediction by clerk of the course Andrew Cooper on the eve of the fillies' Classic.
RELATED LINKS
Oaks card
Epsom Friday card
After a testing and wet fortnight Cooper enjoyed a dry final day of preparation for the biggest two days of the year for the track and is confident he has the track in the best possible condition.
"We had a further 2mm of rain overnight on top of 6mm on Wednesday, so I have left the going as good, good to soft in places for now as the GoingStick reading of 7.5," he said.
"Today has been a dry, warm and breezy day and the track is certainly moving towards good," said Cooper, who was out inspecting the track.
"If it stays dry, which we expect it to, then there is every chance the description will be changed to good tomorrow. There is the potential for the odd shower, but they are not expected to reach the course until after racing."
From the one mile marker the rails will be dolled out up to 6 yards to protect fresh ground for Derby day, adding 17 yards to race distances.
RELATED LINKS
Oaks card
Epsom Friday card
After a testing and wet fortnight Cooper enjoyed a dry final day of preparation for the biggest two days of the year for the track and is confident he has the track in the best possible condition.
"We had a further 2mm of rain overnight on top of 6mm on Wednesday, so I have left the going as good, good to soft in places for now as the GoingStick reading of 7.5," he said.
"Today has been a dry, warm and breezy day and the track is certainly moving towards good," said Cooper, who was out inspecting the track.
"If it stays dry, which we expect it to, then there is every chance the description will be changed to good tomorrow. There is the potential for the odd shower, but they are not expected to reach the course until after racing."
From the one mile marker the rails will be dolled out up to 6 yards to protect fresh ground for Derby day, adding 17 yards to race distances.
Sint, just reading the friday pw and tom has put up Tarfasha
Record of first three finishers from the 1000 Guineas running in the Oaks since 2000:
Year 1000 Pos Oaks Pos sp horse trainer jockey
2000 3 4 9/2 Petrushka Sir Michael Stoute Kieren Fallon
2002 2 10 20/1 Snowfire John Dunlop Pat Eddery
2002 1 1 100/30 Kazzia Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori
2004 2 6 3/1 Sundrop Saeed bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy
2005 1 4 11/4 Virginia Waters A P O'Brien Kieren Fallon
2006 1 4 5/1 Speciosa Pam Sly Micky Fenton
2007 3 6 8/1 Simply Perfect Jeremy Noseda Johnny Murtagh
2011 1 4 9/4 Blue Bunting Mahmood Al Zarooni Frankie Dettori
2012 3 5 100/30 Maybe A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien
2013 3 4 5/2 Moth A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien
Year 1000 Pos Oaks Pos sp horse trainer jockey
2000 3 4 9/2 Petrushka Sir Michael Stoute Kieren Fallon
2002 2 10 20/1 Snowfire John Dunlop Pat Eddery
2002 1 1 100/30 Kazzia Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori
2004 2 6 3/1 Sundrop Saeed bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy
2005 1 4 11/4 Virginia Waters A P O'Brien Kieren Fallon
2006 1 4 5/1 Speciosa Pam Sly Micky Fenton
2007 3 6 8/1 Simply Perfect Jeremy Noseda Johnny Murtagh
2011 1 4 9/4 Blue Bunting Mahmood Al Zarooni Frankie Dettori
2012 3 5 100/30 Maybe A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien
2013 3 4 5/2 Moth A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien
Record of first three finishers from the Irish 1000 Guineas running in the Oaks since 2000:
Year 1000 Pos Oaks Pos sp horse name trainer name jockey name
2001 1 1 3/1 Imagine A P O'Brien Mick Kinane
2002 2 2 15/2 Quarter Moon A P O'Brien Mick Kinane
2002 3 4 16/1 Starbourne A P O'Brien Johnny Murtagh
2003 1 2 100/30 Yesterday A P O'Brien Mick Kinane
2007 3 2 20/1 Peeping Fawn A P O'Brien Martin Dwyer
2009 3 7 8/1 Oh Goodness Me J S Bolger Kevin Manning
2011 1 5 5/1 Misty For Me A P O'Brien Seamie Heffernan
Year 1000 Pos Oaks Pos sp horse name trainer name jockey name
2001 1 1 3/1 Imagine A P O'Brien Mick Kinane
2002 2 2 15/2 Quarter Moon A P O'Brien Mick Kinane
2002 3 4 16/1 Starbourne A P O'Brien Johnny Murtagh
2003 1 2 100/30 Yesterday A P O'Brien Mick Kinane
2007 3 2 20/1 Peeping Fawn A P O'Brien Martin Dwyer
2009 3 7 8/1 Oh Goodness Me J S Bolger Kevin Manning
2011 1 5 5/1 Misty For Me A P O'Brien Seamie Heffernan
Ryan Moore:
I suppose that the obvious place to start when assessing the Oaks is the favourite Marvellous, who I rode to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas last month.
And, I'll be straight up, I think that she is the likely winner, though you will need plenty of luck in running in such a big field.
The only doubt - and it is not a doubt that I have heard mentioned at all in the run-up to tomorrow's race, but it's a very real one all the same - is whether this race will come too soon for her after that win at the Curragh.
Yes, she won by three lengths in the end. But I had to give her a fair ride from some way out to get her home in front, and you never have an easy race in a big race whatever the winning distance. It always takes something out of them, however visually impressive they are.
But, apart from that concern - and if anyone is going to sweeten them up and bring them back in peak form after such a short turnaround it is Aidan, as he has proved time and again - I have to say that she has a lot going for her.
I went into the race at the Curragh thinking that she had a chance but in all probability believing I was a riding a potential Oaks horse, rather than one who would excel over the mile.
And it certainly seemed that way for much of the race, before she picked up for me in the straight and went on to win well.
I know that Timeform have her well clear on ratings here - some 6lb I think - but I personally wouldn't too read too much into that. On paper it looks strong form, as she beat the Newmarket runner-up Lightning Thunder by three lengths, but I don't think the English 1,000 Guineas was strong form at all, and a lot of these fillies will improve more than 6lb now stepped up in trip.
I would place more emphasis on the fact that the extra distance should be the making of this Galileo filly. She ran right through the line at the Curragh and I had trouble pulling her up. In fact, she was still going at the boards about a furlong or so after the line. and when I turned round all the rest of the other horses were in the paddock.
If she is fresh and well, she will take all the beating. And I think she could be even better on decent ground, too.
A lot of people will see her draw in two as a negative, but it doesn't concern me at all....
I suppose that the obvious place to start when assessing the Oaks is the favourite Marvellous, who I rode to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas last month.
And, I'll be straight up, I think that she is the likely winner, though you will need plenty of luck in running in such a big field.
The only doubt - and it is not a doubt that I have heard mentioned at all in the run-up to tomorrow's race, but it's a very real one all the same - is whether this race will come too soon for her after that win at the Curragh.
Yes, she won by three lengths in the end. But I had to give her a fair ride from some way out to get her home in front, and you never have an easy race in a big race whatever the winning distance. It always takes something out of them, however visually impressive they are.
But, apart from that concern - and if anyone is going to sweeten them up and bring them back in peak form after such a short turnaround it is Aidan, as he has proved time and again - I have to say that she has a lot going for her.
I went into the race at the Curragh thinking that she had a chance but in all probability believing I was a riding a potential Oaks horse, rather than one who would excel over the mile.
And it certainly seemed that way for much of the race, before she picked up for me in the straight and went on to win well.
I know that Timeform have her well clear on ratings here - some 6lb I think - but I personally wouldn't too read too much into that. On paper it looks strong form, as she beat the Newmarket runner-up Lightning Thunder by three lengths, but I don't think the English 1,000 Guineas was strong form at all, and a lot of these fillies will improve more than 6lb now stepped up in trip.
I would place more emphasis on the fact that the extra distance should be the making of this Galileo filly. She ran right through the line at the Curragh and I had trouble pulling her up. In fact, she was still going at the boards about a furlong or so after the line. and when I turned round all the rest of the other horses were in the paddock.
If she is fresh and well, she will take all the beating. And I think she could be even better on decent ground, too.
A lot of people will see her draw in two as a negative, but it doesn't concern me at all....
5 of the last 6 Oaks winners had no more than 3 career runs prior to Epsom. This time around?
Madame Chiang (2)
Marsh Daisy (3)
Marvellous (3)
Momentous (2)
Taghrooda (2)
Madame Chiang (2)
Marsh Daisy (3)
Marvellous (3)
Momentous (2)
Taghrooda (2)
Timeform have her 6lbs clear? I suppose I can understand it if they think Lightning Thunder ran somewhere near her Guineas form (I don't), but I really don't understand how anybody could rate her higher than the opposition on the clock.
.... Marvellous only 8lbs clear of anything that's run this year (5lbs in hand of Amazing Maria) on my clock which is right at least twice a day
Lets hope he is right Stevie!
My only bet in the race is Tarfasha at 16/1 + and I took some 7/1 last night. This morning I have put on Win/saver double with Taghrooda 4/1 and Australia 13/8 which pays 12/1.
Good luck all!
My only bet in the race is Tarfasha at 16/1 + and I took some 7/1 last night. This morning I have put on Win/saver double with Taghrooda 4/1 and Australia 13/8 which pays 12/1.
Good luck all!
that does look a decent double now sint especially when compared with both their prices a few weeks ago, both those 2 have reached what I consider reasonable prices now.
My top 5 Oaks runners according to my ratings are:-
Marsh Daisy 87
Anipa 83
Palace 82
Marvellous 81
Ihtimal 81
Marsh Daisy 87
Anipa 83
Palace 82
Marvellous 81
Ihtimal 81
can't have Taghrooda, rated her last run as a slow 71 ... even allowing for other horses in the Pretty Polly running a varied 6-8 lengths slower than their best time figure that would only put Taghrooda on a maximum of 79 on my ratings
yes slow early on in the pretty polly, I have sectionals boosting up her a figure a fair amount but still not enough. Though clearly she could be capable of producing a big figure over 12f in a truly run race but it's hard to say. She could just be a G3 filly thats beaten a load of rubbish so far. Today we'll find out.
just looking at the beaten fillies in the pretty polly, 4 have run since and been beaten a combined total of 75l in their next start.
With no decent figures to go on it's purely down to visual impressions and expectations based on breeding.
With no decent figures to go on it's purely down to visual impressions and expectations based on breeding.
Yes, hence only including her in double with another hype horse Australia. The form of the Pretty Polly could not be any more rancid.
Tarfasha has been the horse for money, smashed into since the day of the race markets opened up on here and the likely favorite at the moment. Those that backed Taghrooda early on would struggle to believe that nearly 5/1 would be available on the day compared to their AP prices.
She was 7/4 at one stage. Just goes to show what hype can do to a horses price!
Like the 2 Hamdan fillies in the Big 1.
Ground has dried out for them, a plus in my book.
Granted some luck in running i can see them fight out the finnish 2day (i hope
)
Gd luck all
Ground has dried out for them, a plus in my book.
Granted some luck in running i can see them fight out the finnish 2day (i hope
)Gd luck all
Not hype Sint. It's just that nobody knew how the form would turn out.
Well Taghrooda backers.
Happy with the result. Tarhasha places and now have a 12/1 bet on Australia for tomorrow.
Happy with the result. Tarhasha places and now have a 12/1 bet on Australia for tomorrow.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she finished first or last
Well I was half right with Amazing Maria
but at least the Marvellous lay was right. Dodged a bullet not laying Taghrooda but would never have laid her at the odds she went off. Well done winners.
Well I was half right with Amazing Maria
but at least the Marvellous lay was right. Dodged a bullet not laying Taghrooda but would never have laid her at the odds she went off. Well done winners.
I am happy I backed it today and in one of my ante post yankee bets, with Kingman (lost), Miss France and Australia.
no sint, though was tempted by a single on tagroodha at the price as she was the one I was most afraid of, but couldn't really justify it on my figures. but my gut instinct was she was good. I did lay her at just over 2/1 a while back but traded out of that and lost a small amount on race overall
YES NICE TOUCH
Very smart filly indeed, had them covered from home turn, travelled like a dream
NICE TOUCH Very smart filly indeed, had them covered from home turn, travelled like a dream
Has Sea The Stars taken over as the number one sire? Coolmore wish they had him?
I was doing all right with my place lays until Volume stuck her head in. Bad girl.
My bet on Madame Chiang ... what a stupid I am.
My bet on Madame Chiang ... what a stupid I am.
Thanks kincsem, I will look at a partial lay on Australia tomorrow, should try to make sure of a profit.
Not so sure about that sint.
Jock reported after that she would not want to go any further in dist.
Her temperament needs to be kept in check as she did get buzzed up before the race & was getting very upset in the stalls just before the off. She needs to become more settled when at the races & keep all that energy for the race itself imo.
A talented filly no doubt, but to edgy for her own gd, hopefully this experience will do her some gd & we see a calmer filly next time.
Jock reported after that she would not want to go any further in dist.
Her temperament needs to be kept in check as she did get buzzed up before the race & was getting very upset in the stalls just before the off. She needs to become more settled when at the races & keep all that energy for the race itself imo.
A talented filly no doubt, but to edgy for her own gd, hopefully this experience will do her some gd & we see a calmer filly next time.
Marvellous ran well in 6th given she had a hard race 11 days previous, and from stall 2.
^^^ she did run ok with all that in mind sint.
Did not fancy her myself after such a tough race in the Ire 1000gns on very soft ground, even more so the short time scale between races. She was not certain to stay on breeding either imo, 10f will be her trip imo.
Did not fancy her myself after such a tough race in the Ire 1000gns on very soft ground, even more so the short time scale between races. She was not certain to stay on breeding either imo, 10f will be her trip imo.
I can't see the point in Taghrooda going to Ireland, surely they would wish to leave the door open for Tarfasha. The St
Leger looks a likely target and 10-1 looks good.
Leger looks a likely target and 10-1 looks good.
U cant see the point??
It would make her a duel classic winner (Oaks)
That would be a very gd reason imo.
It would make her a duel classic winner (Oaks)
That would be a very gd reason imo.
Stevie, what did you make of the performance of Tarfasha? Even though on the face of it it looks a good run to finish second I have it as a bit disappointing compared to her last run, as I don't have it as a great standard Oaks. I'm not saying she could've beaten the winner but as it was a substandard event I would've expected her to finish closer. I read she might be dropped in trip but I didn't see lack of stamina as an excuse. I'm just thinking she may need cut in the ground to show her best, as last year she was very disappointing against My Titania after winning well on softer ground at Galway. On the other hand it may just be the way the yard is performing in recent years, I find a lot of their runners put in below par efforts after a good one with no obvious warning signs beforehand.
Dunno if you've read this Figgis but this is a good read:-
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Sectional_Debrief_Special%2c_Epsom_Derby_Meeting_2014
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Sectional_Debrief_Special%2c_Epsom_Derby_Meeting_2014
Yes I've seen that Grendel, I respect the work but don't always agree with the conclusions. I'm not sure I'd mark up the winner at all, although she did do it very nicely and I'd at least expect her to repeat the effort, which isn't always the case with some Oaks winners.
Could have been the ground Figgis. I know the trainer was pleading for Good ground but if you look at her form Soft is no convenience at all.
Yes, sint, at this stage I'm inclined to think it could be the ground, it was pretty fast on the Friday in spite of the description. I've not backed her in the past and maybe she'll just prove to be a bit inconsistent but I'd be prepared to chance her in future if she gets slower ground.
Figgis, how does Grayswood in the 3.40 at Nottingham fare on your ratings compared to his rivals?
Grendel, I just have him amongst the higher rated on his best but there are a few all on close marks at their best. I rarely bet in races further than 12f, apart from the higher grade stuff, unless I see a standout, generally these races are a no go area for me but other people probably do well in them.
U cant see the point??
It would make her a duel classic winner (Oaks)
That would be a very gd reason imo.
So what is best, duel classic winner or two classic winners? Having said that,neither would
be guaranteed.
It would make her a duel classic winner (Oaks)
That would be a very gd reason imo.
So what is best, duel classic winner or two classic winners? Having said that,neither would
be guaranteed.
Stevie, what did you make of the performance of Tarfasha? Even though on the face of it it looks a good run to finish second I have it as a bit disappointing compared to her last run, as I don't have it as a great standard Oaks
I think that Taghrooda was maybe a very good Oaks winner, she has travelled on the bit in all her races so far and would probably
not be inconvenienced by a fast pace or longer distance,time will tell. I am not sure about Tarfasha, although if I owned the two of
them she would be going to Ireland alone, with a reasonable chance of adding a classic win to her record.
I think that Taghrooda was maybe a very good Oaks winner, she has travelled on the bit in all her races so far and would probably
not be inconvenienced by a fast pace or longer distance,time will tell. I am not sure about Tarfasha, although if I owned the two of
them she would be going to Ireland alone, with a reasonable chance of adding a classic win to her record.
Yes, wouldn't disagree that Taghrooda could do better given the manner of her win more than anything, I just wouldn't take it as a given, so if she's priced up like a very good Oaks winner I'll be looking to oppose.
Granted gd or faster ground & The Oaks winner turns up for the Ire Oaks, I would fully expect her to land a second Oaks. She looks a cut above them to me.
@Figgis -- what did you make of the performance of Tarfasha?
My first thought was that she did not act on the course but the replay shows clearly that Inchila twice knocked Tarfasha out of her stride between the 2 and 1 furlong poles.
My first thought was that she did not act on the course but the replay shows clearly that Inchila twice knocked Tarfasha out of her stride between the 2 and 1 furlong poles.
U cant see the point??
It would make her a duel classic winner (Oaks)
That would be a very gd reason imo.
So what is best, duel classic winner or two classic winners? Having said that,neither would
be guaranteed.
Seems that Hamdan agrees with me.
Sheikh Hamdan's racing manager Angus Gold told Press Association Sport: "Sheikh Hamdan has now decided that he would like to run Taghrooda in the King George at Ascot and therefore she will not be declared for the Irish Oaks.
"Tarfasha will be declared for the Irish Oaks.
It would make her a duel classic winner (Oaks)
That would be a very gd reason imo.
So what is best, duel classic winner or two classic winners? Having said that,neither would
be guaranteed.
Seems that Hamdan agrees with me.
Sheikh Hamdan's racing manager Angus Gold told Press Association Sport: "Sheikh Hamdan has now decided that he would like to run Taghrooda in the King George at Ascot and therefore she will not be declared for the Irish Oaks.
"Tarfasha will be declared for the Irish Oaks.
I don't think that Taghrooda winning the Irish Oaks would do as much for her reputation as being even placed in the King George - As I have said on another thread, once they knew that Tarfasha was fit and well and that there was a high chance of the Curragh ground remaining G/F, the Sheikh was only going to make one decision.
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