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deepingfox
29 Apr 14 21:58
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Date Joined: 10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 723 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
Looking through the 75 entries for the Oaks, and those at the top of the betting, to me this looks like a race that is going to cut up after Sundays 1000 Guineas, and lots wil ldrop out of the market, and others will shorten.

Looking at those potential improvers I first fancied TAGHROODA, who has a great pedigree for the race, and the HANAGAN and GOSDEN team behind her.
 
I really liked the debut win at Newmarket, and she remains in my mind.

However, I don't like the thought of her entry in a 0.85 handicap at Sandown last week, and her late withdrawal, I feel if she was top class the trainer wouldn't have had that entry.

She runs on Sunday in the Pretty Polly (home of  OUIJA BOARDs storming victory run on her seasonal debut), and we shall see her merits on the day.  Having looked through the videos of the entries, I think I have the winner of the Pretty Polly and a great price for the OAKS, in the Charlie Hills (Abdullah) trained CAMBRIDGE.

Her Nottingham win was excellent last season, looking to lose the chance of winning when 3 or 4 went on, but outstaying and lengthening passed them late on , R/UP passed late on (she had great pedigree, had form and fitness, and won by 4L next time out) with 5L gap back from runner up to 3rd. 
The maiden itself could be good as both R/UP and 3rd are also entered in the Pretty Polly, so both trainers rate their fillies.

As a bloke living in Peterborough I never thought I would hear myself say it, but "C'mon CAMBRIDGE".
.

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Replies: 263
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Apr 14 13:04
Everyone at Timeform is on Taghroodha hence her ridiculously short odds of 10/1.

Also running in the Pretty Polly is Sound Reflection who i've had a few quid on for the Oaks at 50/1. It looks a good race on Saturday.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 30 Apr 14 14:40
Lots of well bred unexposed fillies in the betting (Taghroodha, Cambridge etc.)
Took a small interest myself on Tapestry (12s) for the race some wks ago & a little bit more on here (16.0). She was a classy 2yo & looks sure to get at least 10f this season (hopefully 1m4f) Hope to see her go well on Sunday (1000gns)
The Pretty Polly does look a gd race if they all line-up & with the 1000gns on Sun, we should hopefully have a lot more to go on with the Oaks in mind.
By:
deepingfox
When: 30 Apr 14 21:18
Cambridge has been backed across the board today, and now trades at 12/1 to 20/1, mostly at 16/1, I hope that's a very positive sign for Sunday, as well as Epsom.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 30 Apr 14 22:40
deeping, think you could be spot on with cambridge. Just watched the video back myself and it is indeed impressive.
Didn't give it a great figure at the time but looking at the sectionals just now I made it 34.6 for the laast 3f which was faster than the next couple of mile races on the cards for older horses. I'd be looking at around a +20 on my sectionals which puts her doing a 90+ at Nottingham that day and that is a very decent figure for a filly first time up.

Breeding wise, looks sure to stay with the dam being a cheshire oaks winner who was a also a half sister to Bangalore a chester cup winner and the sire Rail Link already producing plenty of 12f+ winner.

16s looks good.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 30 Apr 14 23:00
That Taghroodha does look open to plenty of improvement when stepping up in trip. Though Cambridge to me looks to have the better speed.
If they both line up for that pretty polly then it's going to be an intriguing race.
By:
deepingfox
When: 30 Apr 14 23:18
Thanks Stevie G,

I do like an Ante Post dabble, from a long way out, but that's fraught with potential non-runners.

I think a strong look at the fields closer to the events now, when the betting is established in people's minds can throw up some real value.

People are assuming that in the 1000 Guineas that Rizeena, Kiyoshi, Tapestry Group 1 form is good enough for Sunday, plus Rizeena/Ihtimal form is good too.

This is then stretched out (as usual) into the Oaks betting, with loads of non-stayers at the forefront of that market, clouding the true likely picture, with loads of potential dropouts after the Guineas.

This year my focus is very much on the Pretty Polly, and on Cambridge (over Taghrooda) - and those two represent clear opposition, for staying-bred fillies to the accepted market leaders.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 01 May 14 14:46
Looks a very nice filly Cambridge & is certainly bred for the job.
My slight concern watching her race is that she does hit the ground a bit hard when racing & shows a bit of knee action. It will be interesting to see how she handles fast ground.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 May 14 15:26
The Khalid Abdullah-owned daughter of Rail Link won her only start to date at Nottingham last October, beating a subsequent four-length winner in the process.

She was reported to be working well at home and the public got a chance to see her in action at Newmarket last month when she assisted Hills' Kiyoshi in her preparations for the 1000 Guineas.

"Cambridge had a racecourse gallop with Kiyoshi at the Craven Meeting and the plan now is to start off in the Musidora Stakes at York," said Hills.

Profiles Cambridge C Hills
"We were pleased with her at Newmarket and she is obviously unexposed having just had the one run.

"She is a tall, rangy filly, but her work has always been very, very good.

"She has done nothing but please us in everything she has done this spring and I would disappointed if she did not develop into an Investec Oaks contender."
By:
sintonian
When: 01 May 14 15:27
Trainer certainly bullish there, top price is 20/1 with b0yles currently.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 May 14 11:50
Just watched Cambridge's maiden on the Sporting Life site and she is certainly a lovely big filly - she dwarfed the runner up (who might not be a forlorn e/w hope either). 16/1 best price now.

The only one I've backed so far, for peanuts, is Folk Melody @ 150 on here.
By:
deepingfox
When: 03 May 14 19:29
Any Oaks fillies coming out of tomorrows 1000 Guineas?
By:
deepingfox
When: 04 May 14 18:18
Well the answer to "any Oaks fillies coming out of tomorrows 1000 Guineas" today, in my view is probably not.  The only one who may have it as a target, and have a chance, is Ihtimal, and I wont be rushing to back her on breeding.

I started the thread by suggesting first TAGHROODA and then CAMBRIDGE and for me these are the two fillies I am looking forward to seeing most, Cambridge I believe is going for the Musidora in 10 days time.

I can thank "Spoilsports" for the 20/1 TAGHROODA and 25/1 CAMBRIDGE tickets I have, and I really liked the way the former put the Pretty Polly to bed to become firm favourite for Epsom.

So TAGHROODA takes prime position in the market, but still convinced that CAMBRIDGE can firstly win the Musidora, and secondly throw it down to her in the Oaks.

AOB's horses seem to be well off the pace, with the exception of Australia.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 04 May 14 19:27
Was very taken with Taghrooda 2day, she looks very smart.
Took a little bit of the 4s with baldies after the race.
Will take a gd one to beat her in the Oaks.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 04 May 14 20:06
She did look pretty good, time wasn't very good but you can see from watching it and the sectionals they went quite slow early on. I'd make her at least a further 5lb better than the 2nd based on sectionals.

The 2nd was a well bred cummani filly who won her maiden quite easily last year and she's obviously better than her 79 rating, I'd be thinking she was a 90 odd filly.

Sound Reflection has become disappointing but Uchenna probably is about as good as her 87 rating and you can see from that form line through Tea in Transversal/Uchenna that  Taghrooda looks to have improved.

So all in all I'd be looking at around 108 for the winner with more to come and a longer trip and stronger gallop could see her run a really good figure. I think she deserves to be fav but not so short as she is now so no value to me. WD those who got the prices. I'll just have to hope Cambridge can be as impressive but I'm not so confident now.
By:
Masterminded
When: 04 May 14 20:30
It's a shame no credible candidates have come out of the Guineas today but tbf v few of them would have even be bred to do so. Miss France looks to be heading back to France for the Diane & the O'Brien horses bombed out.

Will be interesting to see what emerges in the next few weeks but you would have to like Taghrooda in terms of performances and pedigree.
By:
thornton reed
When: 04 May 14 22:19
Anyone fancy laying my £10 at 50s on Lady Tyne?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 05 May 14 11:34
I'll lay that for you Thornton, looks an ok cheshire oaks, yours has been drawn 7. Quite impressed by Gosden's last time but tricky draw in 9. Charlie Hill's Brown Diamond was 4th to the oaks fav fto and was quite eyecatching last time as well, drawn 1 and could be the 1 to beat O'brien's horse who sets the standard.
By:
thornton reed
When: 05 May 14 12:28
Thanks. Yes looks a fairly good renewal. Could be the first time Lady Tyne encounters decent ground. Hopefully she'll put herself in the Oaks picture. Very impressed with Taghrooda yesterday and she is a worthy favourite at this stage.
By:
Figgis
When: 05 May 14 12:29
Taghrooda looks an extremely stingy price to me based on that run, she might've looked as impressive as Ouija Board in the same race but it wasn't in the same class. Even allowing that the pace was slow early she'll need to improve a fair bit on that to win a typical Oaks. Maybe she can but there are a few trials to come yet, I'd say she should be double the 5/2 at this stage.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 05 May 14 12:42
It is stingy as I'd imagine any oaks filly would have done the same to that field but it was the same with Kingman after his Greenham win the prices were awful and anyone fancying him would have been better waiting til the day. What price was Ouija Board after that race Figgis?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 05 May 14 12:50
I've laid some of the 5/2 myself now.
By:
Figgis
When: 05 May 14 12:54
SG, amazingly she was 12/1, and that price stood until after the Dante meeting, hard to believe now.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 05 May 14 13:12
It doesn't make a lot of sense when you compare the 2 figgis.
By:
Figgis
When: 05 May 14 13:25
Gosden wasn't sure if she'd run again before the Oaks, if she doesn't, then unless the other trials are rubbish I can't see her starting too much shorter on the day, if another credible contender emerges she'll probably lengthen. Even if she does take in another trial and wins well I still think it's unlikely she'll shorten a great deal unless the others look very poor. The Fugue went off at 11/4 after winning the Musidora quite impressively. I thought that form was a bit overrated but I'd still have her a few pounds ahead of Taghrooda. It's a race that's been good for me over the years but I haven't backed the winner since 2009 so I'm hoping for an opportunity to get back on track this year, at least Taghrooda is creating the chance for some value elsewhere.
By:
Figgis
When: 05 May 14 15:31
Somebody is keen to back the fav, 5k at 3.4 on here instead of shopping around.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 05 May 14 15:42
Will be interesting to see how the Hills' filly gets on tomorrow, particulalry in light of the quiet confidence emanating from the stable about Cambridge.

I also think the second from yesterday's Pretty Polly might be a filly to keep an eye on, not saying she's an Oaks contender by any stretch of the imagination but her trainer was talking about starting her off in handicaps originally so she's clearly progressive.
By:
paul22
When: 05 May 14 16:32
Figgis someone has done this a few times now. Assuming it was the same person who sent kingman into 2.2 when 6/4 was freely available and australia into 2.5 when 7/4 was freely available.
By:
lobster luck
When: 05 May 14 16:46
Ouija board was 20/1 with sad blokes after the pretty polly. Got home after going to newmarket at 8pm and checked the Internet. Couldn't believe it and had 50 on. Big bet for me, especially as I had just got engaged!  Got backed from newmarket last night expecting 5/1 and saw 3/1 - tight imo
By:
Figgis
When: 05 May 14 16:51
Yes, paul22, possibly somebody connected to the yard then.
By:
Figgis
When: 05 May 14 16:53
Sorry, didn't see your reference to Australia, maybe not then.
By:
paul22
When: 05 May 14 18:18
Think its probably someone who doesn't really care about the money and just wants to be on :)
By:
sintonian
When: 05 May 14 19:38
Thing is, when Kingman hacked up it looked a good trial. I am not sure what Taghrooda has really beaten! Sound Reflection was rated 100 but the race was slowly run and I don't like the fact she had to wear a hood.

I see Cambridge is now 14/1 max. These bookies go running at the slightest sign of trouble. You wouldn't want them in your trench fighting your corner. Cowards.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 05 May 14 22:17
I see the blinkers are back on Terrific in the Cheshire oaks and you'd think Joseph may employ front running tactics and could be tough to pass round Chester.

I do wonder if Spencer will get into trouble on Brown Diamond from stall 1.

I gave Bright Approach a good speed figure at Newbury and she stayed on really well but I worry she'll find this track a bit sharp and the wide draw is not going to help but I think she could be the most talented in the field.

Some other interesting fillies in the race too like Lady Tyne and if one of the less exposed ones were to win impressively then it could shake up the oaks market.
By:
sinfin
When: 05 May 14 22:32
its probably worth getting your money on ere in one go under the price cause sadblokes might ave a bigger price but u cant get on to any amount
By:
Ramruma
When: 06 May 14 07:55
Taghrooda looked very impressive but as @sintonian asks, what has she beaten? Surely the two main reasons for her very short price are:

1) Nothing came out of the Guineas;

2) Timeform has been touting Taghrooda since before the start of the season, in Racehorses and Horses to Follow. This meant she went into the Pretty Polly already at a shorter Oaks price than Ouija Board after the latter had won it.

In Horses To Follow, for instance: "if you only back one horse out of this ante-post preview make sure it’s Taghrooda in the Oaks, available at 33/ 1".
By:
AlfieT
When: 06 May 14 13:57
Not bad advice though, was it?
By:
cryoftruth
When: 06 May 14 22:10
Taghrooda looked very impressive but as @sintonian asks, what has she beaten?

I agree with this. She could be anything but she could also be a decent listed/group 3 performer; the current Oaks price is scandalous, ludicrous even.  She won a maiden well and then has beaten a 79 rated horse by 10lbs. Okay a 100 rated horse was 3rd but that one is very dodgy and hooded. Its hard to know what rating Taghrooda ran but its hard to see how it was much more than 100. She has about 18lbs to find to win an Oaks.
By:
kincsem
When: 08 May 14 02:53
Cookie cutter breeding.
I notice two of the Aidan O'Brien Oaks entries have almost identical pedigrees.
Wonderfully and Dazzling are both by Galileo, out of a Danehill mare, and that Danehill mare is out of a Kris mare.
Of the 14 ancestors in their first three generations (2+4+8=14) thirteen are identical.
By:
sintonian
When: 08 May 14 13:44
Sound Reflection has been left in next weeks Musidora.
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