ARC 2014

The only way I think they might have regretted the Ganay was if it had been her only defeat "oh if only we hadn't been beaten a short neck in the Ganay she would have been unbeaten!" As it is they have to say "oh if only she hadn't been beaten a short neck in the Ganay and 3 lengths in the POW and 2 lengths in the Vermeilles she would have been unbeaten. I wish I'd just run her in the 3.30 at Catterick."

She wasn't good enough in all conditions over all distances to remain unbeaten. As Sandown says, that hardly matters as she and her trainer will go down in history as one of the few back to back Arc winners and that we should all say "tres bien Mmme CH!!!" J'ai fini aussi x

kingcem

I agree, I'm a lucky bastard It's one of the things on my bucket list, so very much looking forward to it.

Fortunately, we have friends down there so tickets all booked, seats in the stands obtained, and hopefully we will get to see the horses as well as the race. Over 100,000 in attendance it seems.All I need now is to find the winner so that I can recover my ARC money and contribute something towards the cost of this trip which is taking in NZ, Hawaii & Dallas (where my daughter lives) plus a few other stops on the way.That's the holiday budget blown for a few years!

Jet lag is a bit of a problem (one day recovery for each hour time change).  I arrived on the morning of the race.
Playing golf a few days later I hit my drive to within 50 yards of the green (very dry ground) and took ten more shots.
Healesville nature sanctuary was a nice day trip (65km away).  It was Rugby World Cup year so I saw a match in Melbourne.
Why not post on the Betfair forum when you are on your trip?

We will just have to agree to disagree then S. After all I know first hand what losing an unbeaten record means and the inquests that were involved which ended in the owner/breeder never speaking to the trainer again and the trainer insulting the owners, after they had passed on, at every opportunity. Of course horses get beaten but when that defeat is avoidable then we are talking about something else. Or at least I am. Sea Bird 11 was beaten and so was Sea the Stars but they hadn't an unbeaten record to defend. So no matter how many examples you can put forward where a horse has been beaten unnecessarily I bet if you asked the owners if it mattered the would say 'you are damned right it matters'.

Anyway a friend and I are planning the Melbourne Cup next year but, as with the Breeders Cup this year sometimes circumstances get beyond control. I hope you have a great time and look forward to any pointers you can give when your eturn.

Thank you brigust1. If I do have any pointers be assured I will let you know.Right now, I have taken note that Oz trainers do not seem to prep their horses in the European fashion.

What's the weather like at this time of year? Do they train on the track? Can you watch them going through their paces? Sometimes the early morning activities can be more relaxing than the day at the races.

Oh. I forgot. I am so jealous.

Sorry Brig - had no idea you were the legendary Laurie! No wonder it is a subject you feel strongly about. Great talking with you even if we did largely disagree!

You must be confusing me with someone I used to know Joni. It's great talking with you too and I have no problem with opposing views that is exactly what a forum is far otherwise what would be the point.

S are you flying direct or stopping over on the way or way back? Will you be going anywhere else sightseeing wise?

Dubai,Hong Kong,Sydney,Canberra,Melbourne,New Zealand,Hawaii,Dallas.Our daughter and grandchildren live there. 9 weeks. Can't wait.Sightseeing obligatory.

Goodness me S. You missed out Oxford. Can't be a complete trip them.

Seriously though what a treat. Take care of yourself and remember we are not as young as we were. While I'm finishing off a new roof in the Dorogne I will certainly give you a thought and a rueful smile.

Joni. I have been saying for over a year now, anyone who debates with Brigust must do so knowing he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about. His posts are full of contradictions and hypocrisy. His opinion will change in accordance with his mistakes. Then thrown in the fact he aftertimes too and it doesn't take too much to work out he loses regularly. I wish I could put that in a kinder way but it seems pretty obvious to me. He constantly has to be a smart a5se and very little of what he says makes sense. He has no understanding of times, ratings, preparations, breeding/pr, trainer patterns..the list goes on but talks to everyone down his nose and like he's the messiah. People are just wasting their time.

Great one digging out that post though. There are loads like that and proves exactly my point. Pocket talk, smart a5se, hindsight. He's never wrong (accept all the time in reality).

Another bug bear of Brig's is that horses today earn their high ratings easily by beating inferior opposition. ''All the good horses avoid each other, it never happened in my day'' Yet he says Treve should not have run against CDA or in the POW.

Bloke is such a t1t, honestly.

Brig don`t throw yourself off the roof in the Dorogne after Australia`s retirement.

Just remember Coolmore`s sole "raison d`etre" is to win the Epsom Derby and everthing else is secondary. I hope you filled your boots at Epsom but sadly it has ended in tears. I`m sure you`ll get a lot of sympathy on here.

Good morning Felt. I'm a punter so making the wrong decisions is part and parcel of the business. Sympathy is wasted on punters. About the decision retire Australia I am disappointed for racing. Again we have a horse whose career is based almost solely on hype. The Coolmore rep said Australia was a great 2 year old. Just bollox. And whatever did he beat? It, s still early days I suppose so Free Eagle, The Grey Gatsby and Kingston Hill could make him look better. We will have to wait and see.
As far as bets are concerned I lost on the 2000 Gns but got it back in the Derby plus a bit. I backed him for the Juddmonte and only lost a little on the Irish Champion. I lost on the Arc but the winner saved me. I backed him for the QE11 covering my bet with Night of Thunder. I never backed him for the Champion but backed ROTW instead. All in all he made me money and took me on an extraordinary journey. Do I think he was campaigned correctly? No. Do I think AOB has been justified in his comments? No. I have thought Coolmore is bad for racing for a long time now and nothing tbey have done this year has made me change my mind. Only this time to be fait I went on the journey with them and I am even more convinced now.

I also seem to remember the names I was called when I said War Command wouldn't win another Group 1.

Would agree with that brigust.

Good morning MJ. Did you read where Sandown is going to in a few days? Fantastic.

Lucky bugger.

It turns out Brig had a saver on Night of Thunder for the QEII, a horse proven on soft ground, BEFORE Australia was retired, but there is no whiff of a mention of it on here or the Champion Stakes thread where he also aftertimed his Aus bet for the same race. Amazing coincidence

I mean if your talking about backing horses in a said race then you mention them both instead of waiting until one has retired and the price on the other shortens. The mindset of punter who doesn't know his a5se from his elbow i'm afraid.

Sin I backed NOT on the 8th Oct because there was so much speculation going on with Coolmore this week. You would want to mad not to cover any bets. I had a nifty on at 4.8 and 4.9 and I would post proof on here but I have been the only one declaring bets and stakes before the race plus provided evidence of successful bets and closed accounts so if you don't believe me that is your problem. And if you don't cover your bets when the likelihood of running is in the balance that is also your problem. I could still lose as I have in the past that's racing.

going back to the Arc, I found the post race interview on ATR with the 90 year old Alec Head very entertaining - especially the bit where he confessed to calling the 96 year old Peter O'Sullevan in the week preceding the race and advising him that the mare was back to her best and that Peter should bet accordingly.

don't really begrudge inside information passed between nonagenerians!

Treve unretired according to Racing UK

amazing if true Rease. What do you the reasoning would be? Because the horse had genuine problems this summer would be my guess and is now over them!

* think

A very good decision,the 2yrlds not the best bunch on figures yet,Treve will take some stopping!

I just wonder what's changed sint - Criquette Head even said prior to the race last Sunday that her back was still not right (Treve's not Criquette's!) or words to that effect.

I wonder if it might have as much to do with a young,enthusiastic, wealthy owner who sees the chance to cement a legacy with one of his horses.

They lose very little by keeping her in training and seeing how she is next spring, plenty of time for her to breed (all things being equal).

I think they found the key too her,12f!

I thought she said he last gallop before the Arc was like she did before races last season, indicating her back problems had gone? We'll see anyway.

Now then, do they start off in the Ganay

Should be some more mileage in opposing her then, at least in the earlier season targets

Ok - just to put some much needed perspective on this - C H-M's training performance, and the wisdowm of running Treve in the mud at the Ganay against a race-fit Cirrus des Aigles,

look at some of the past 4yo champions who were defending the Arc, or KG or other big 3yo seasons,

Danedream - winner of Arc, brought back in a G2 for 33k ...

Dylan Thomas - winner of Irish Champion Stakes, brough back in the Listed Alleged Stakes en route to winning the Arc

Montjeu - winner of Arc, brought back in the (just about) G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh

Hurricane Run - Same as Montjeu .. (they were 1/3, and 1/5 respectively .. so no race fit Cirrus to contend with ... )


Did the filly put in a trememdous effort trying to overcome a better preped champion, was it a mistake to return her in that race ... yes, and yes.

Should she win another major race(KG, 3rd Arc?) now that her retirement is on hold,  a  not entirely unlikely possibility, the idea that losing her unbeaten record will figure large in any assessment of her would be myopic, to say the least.

was the filly injured next time out ... yes, unfortunately ... could she have strained her back in the Ganay - yes!

I think keeping Treve in training is brilliant news. I think she could be rated a lot higher than she is and I hope we have a good 3 year old prepared to take her on.
As far as the Ganay is concerned I see no reason not to run in it providing she is ready for it because she really should be the best horse in the race unless something exceptional comes out of the Champion Stakes. I don't think anything from the Arc will challenge her but you never know.
One thing I would add S is that had she been unbeaten she definitely would have retired.

nothing to do w her losing her unbeaten record - until the Arc she was for the scrap heap !! they just managed to get her physical problems fixed up in time to work her correctly !!

they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory - as we can now see she still had the talent, just her campaigning was completely hap-hazard.

trust me - this was a very average (in the nicest way possible) training performance from C H-M.

ofc "unbeaten" is totally missing the point - if you don't get beaten you're not setting your goals high enough *cough* Frankel ;)

Sea the Stars' is about the best 3yo campaign we've ever seen

and had he come back as a 4yo .. there isn't a snowballs that he'd have been reintroduced after a very trying campaign by racing a monster in deep ground.

That was simply a huge miscalculation by the trainer .. and from then on she was on the back-foot.

^^^^ Best 3 year old campaign ever seen?????????????

What in your opinion made it such an amazing campaign from the trainer?

Agree with the Sea The Stars view what he did in his 3yo season was special imo.
Agree with Sints views on brig

hmm .. well,

he won both classics against strong fields, check !

he won over 10f against top older horses, three timces, check !

he won over 12f against the best they could offer in the Prix de l'Arc  .. check !

check, check, check .. the new triple crown should be 2000, Derby, Arc (for obvious reasons the Leger is a bit antiquated) ... I believe he's the only to do it

And I don't mean "for ever as in ... all time" .. I mean in modern times - that is since Vincent O'Brien at least.

^^^^^^^What SEA THE STARS did or the greatest training campaign we have ever seen?

uhmm .. before you lose it .. they are a bit inseperable .. it takes trainer to train and enter the horse .. he can't do it all himself ..

I must have mis-read your post FFS. He was a brilliant horse, but I thought you was suggesting the trainer gave him the greatest campaign.

though in Sea the Stars' case .. he probably could have learnt to use a computer and enter himself

horse was that special

Workforce was brought back in a Group 3 too fwiw but I see no problem with Treve running in the Ganay. In fact, I am quite amazed people are criticising it because when we get a soft looking Group 1 race with little opposition everyone moans about it. It was a Group 1, what do you want the oppposition to be?! The time worked perfectly with Ascot too. If the Going is Soft next season, I bet they'd run in it again.

I doubt we'll see Treve run in the UK again - the Royal meeting on easy ground is probably the only chance. I'd love to see her in the King George but history shows how hard it is to get a horse to peak then and also for the Arc - which is her priority. I think only Ribot, Ballymoss and Dylan Thomas are the only older horses to win KG and Arc in the same season.

6/1 is top price for next year's Arc. Not for me Geoff!!

maybe it's an indication of the French classic distance 3yos ?

rather- 2yos, 3yos to come ..

Ol Man River, JFK, Found all look top class tbf .. though you wouldn't count AO'B running any if they won him a classic ...

that's the problem ffs, he NEVER targets the race.

targetting the Arc is a sporting model not a business model

I see no reason why Treve should start her season early benefitting from the 4 year old restricted races designed to help 3 year olds staying in training. A summer/autumn campaign looks likely and gives them time to assess things. She is only missing one foal unlike a stallion  who can miss loads of foals.
What her connections will have been looking at is 'is there a top 2 year old who will be a classic horse next season to take her on?' and 'are any of this years 3 year olds that stay in training likely to give her trouble?'
Currently none of the 2 year olds look outstanding but it is early days yet and of the 3 year olds I suppose only Kingston Hill, Eagle Top and Free Eagle may have the Arc in mind. Is she better than them? At the moment it looks like it.

I like it that Treve is going to appear next year.  There is no pressure to prove anything.  If she runs down the field in a Group 3 that is not a problem.  I hope she has a year where she enjoys her racing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Border_Security:_Australia's_Front_Line
http://newsliteimgs.s3.amazonaws.com/090203_pigeon.jpg

How will we recognise Sandown going through Australian customs?

I mischievously believe that CH can smell the fear coming from Coolmore,I think the KG is a viable target for Treve,and all that took place this year would boost any trainers - owners ego about taking them on,Treve 129P this year and capable of  131P at least,this will set a very hard target for any 3yrld next year!

I am also expecting JOB to give up riding on the flat soon,who would have for the job?

I hope he makes the decision soon,or someone makes it for him,it can't be good for his health struggling at  9 stone,and it's not healthy for the betting public,who will not be sure he would put up overweight in a Group race.

I cannot believe for one second that Criquette-Head and the Sheikh, and maybe Harry Herbert, would all sit down, look at all the 2yos and all the 3yo and then decided ''yep, nothing to worry about there, lets go for another Arc'' I bet stuff like that does not even enter their heads. The trainer knows the horses better than any of us and clearly she had problems in the summer which she is now over. It's nothing to do with next seasons potential opposition. How the eff would they know if their is superstar amongst them? No-one does until it happens!!

* as a rule of thumb, that is. One of the 2yo could easily become a superstar, from any yard.

yes sin,but the ratings would be taken into account.

I hold OMR in high esteem,and I hope he transfers and improves his obvious ability,I rate him  115P,most other handicappers are lower,but using others hcp ratings,it makes it clear that the Coolmore horses need to improve in the region of 10 lb just to match Treve,if they were rated 119-120p at this stage Treve may well have gone off for some fun.

Anyone thinks owners, managers and trainers don't sit down and discuss the for's and against's of what could be million pound decisions must think these people are just plain stupid. I certainly don't think they are and would be certain they have weighed up all of the possibilities.

Anyone who also thinks they made their sole decision on that, i.e you, you silly twunt, should give up betting.

yes brigust,in past years we have had plenty of 120 rated sorts at this stage,most of those would not be 128 sorts the following year.

If you have a superstar horse, like Treve, you simply do not GAMBLE on what the opposition may be. They will not have any a better idea than you about others horses, there are dozens to consider, which says a lot.

Criqutte-Head is not naive and stupid enough to assume no others horses will improve like you do Brigust. You are one th1ck s0d. Defies belief.

sintonian,I find your attitude offensive,I see weakness in my own ratings ,or should I say the improvement allotted to those behind the winners significant enough to make me a bit nervous about what my eyes are telling me,many others will see the same.(I am not alone)

I honestly could not care any less MJ. You can be all chummy with a guy who is consistently patronising if you like, but the fact of the matter is he has no idea about anything. All the evidence would support that over the months on here. A proper smug t1t. I'll leave you be though!

''Oh look, this 3yo has improved out of nowhere, has that ever happened before? Oh, so has that 4yo. Damn, we never saw that coming.''

on with real life for a minute hope this BURAUQ delivers at wolves?

expectations always questionable

Consideration of this year's 2yos would have had no bearing on the decision IMO. Nothing's got near her in 2 Arcs on different going - why would they be worried?

OK MJ, i'll apologise for being O.T.T rude, and to Brigust too, even though I think....ah, never mind. Looking forward to Champions Weekend at Ascot.

If, when in business, you don't take into cosideration all of the options before making a business decision then you won't be in business very long. And if you are wealthy and employ people for many thousands of pounds to year to look after your interests you will expect that they have looked into every eventuality before they put a suggestion to you. Otherwise the people you employ will not find themselves in employment very long. Harry Herbert has been involved succesfully in racing for a long time and his expertise isn't luck. It is based upon doing the research before making the decision. What some may consider frivolous and unimportant is often the difference between success and failure.

No sh1t. But to suggest that is what the decision is based on is lunacy, however you wish to put it.

The decision they have made about Treve staying in training will have many component parts and the likelihood of success will be one of those component parts. Another, and I suggest more important, component part will the likelihood or otherwise of an injury recurrence and whether or not she will be able to compete at near her best.
What this decision has told me, though I fully expect I will be in a minority, is that the injury she suffered wasn't an injury of unknown origin and very likely, very very likely as a result of her running in the Prix Ganay followed her running in the POW Stakes. In other words a training injury. As I suspected.

I fully expect I will be in a minority

Agree brig

That's OK A_T. It can be lonely at the top.

Sometimes people forget this is a racing forum,and on the whole, a helpful instrument into other peoples insights,I found reading brigusts posts, that we shared a way or belief of looking at form,this is great for cross referencing thoughts,I also find many a useful insight from many other posters on here,including you sintonian,my way may not be the best,but i try not to put people away(but tempted sometimes), I get many things wrong and make many mistakes,you will not read me gloat on betting habits for I suspect many posters, much better than me on the betting, profit front.I am a racing enthusiast,and obsessive,I have views and many wacky thoughts go on between these hears(they should lock me up)

"Bonjour Mms CH, Sheikh Al here"
"Ah!! Bonjour CH, comment allez-vous?!"
"Oh very well thank you. Still buzzing from last weekend!"
"Oh me too your highness, moi aussi!!!"
"How is our little star?"
"Ah monsieur she is bouncing, you wouldn't think she had a race!"
"That's great. Look I've been thinking. We only really got her fit for the Arc didn't we."
"Oui, you highness, she was right back to her best wasn't she?!"
"How do you think her back would stand another year Madame?"
"Are you saying what I think you are saying?"
"Well I am thinking why not?! It's never been done before has it? 3 Arcs. That would be history. What do you think?"
"Well your highness I think pourqoui pas?!!"
"Exactement madame. We miss one year of breeding. So what? We give her an easy year. Maybe 2 or 3 runs max and then  the Bois De Boulougne!!!"
"Let's do it Sheikhyyy!!!!!!!"

I was there.

yes fair enough MJ. Like I said, it was O.T.T rude.

Dear Brig, what do you think of Convey?

Another thought or question pops into my mind on todays anouncement of Treve staying in training,why is she not going too the Turf? some judges have commented that Treve was still a week short of very best,the ground would not appear a major problem?, non of the european challengers bar TGG who is not going can beat her?so not all positive,and something for the layers to think about?(just put ya  prices up boys)






?

Sin if you are asking about the KA colt who has run just the once I really have no idea. There are so many uncompetitive races nowadays at all levels that a single success against unknown opposition could be absolutely anything. I guess the boys in the stable with have a view about how he sits in their stable so until he runs again they will be a half step in front.

Careful what you say there about Treve only being fit for the Arc, Joni. I still get some stick for thinking that.

ere Brig, so if you have no idea about the ability or potential of Convey, then what do you think Criquette, Harry and the Sheilh concluded when they all sat around the table pontificating (probably whilst eating cheese, salmon and humus).

Ere Sin. Why do you treat everyone with such disdain? When Paddy P heard Treve was being aimed at next year's Arc they priced it up immediately. Do you think they wouldn't have taken into consideration what she may be up against? With Australia and Taghrooda both retiring do you think they didn't take that into consideration? These people are not all the fools you think they are. CH and HH are not idiots either and would have discussed all of the implications including potential opposition when they made their decision. They cannot know everything but they certainly would not have ignored the information that is already available to them.
And if you read HH's comments where he said Treve's season would start late and they would not be running her on unsuitable ground again in my opinion that says a lot about her runs earlier this season.

Only you Brig. Only you.

Next year they might say Treve has been retired.
Did they she she was aimed at the Arc in 2015?
It is only words.

Thank goodness for that.

Ten Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winners have stood at stud in Japan.

Rheingold, Dancing Brave, Tony Bin, Carroll House, Carnegie, Lammtarra, Helissio, Marienbard, Bago, Workforce.

Oct 11, 2014 -- 11:08AM, sintonian wrote:

I cannot believe for one second that Criquette-Head and the Sheikh, and maybe Harry Herbert, would all sit down, look at all the 2yos and all the 3yo and then decided ''yep, nothing to worry about there, lets go for another Arc'' I bet stuff like that does not even enter their heads. The trainer knows the horses better than any of us and clearly she had problems in the summer which she is now over. It's nothing to do with next seasons potential opposition. How the eff would they know if their is superstar amongst them? No-one does until it happens!!

agree with this 100% .. unless there was something one in a 100 years they would roll the dice.

In fact, the opposite view imo misses the part which attracts the Sheikhs !! They're not accountants !! It's the gamble, the take-em-on attitude which is why they love horse racing so much. Nobody knows for sure, ok some people might be good at the probabilities but I bet anything Sheikh Joaan has as much interest in OMR as he has in what you ate for dinner.

I will say that a different owner would sure take in what the likely opposition is one year hence, like say Michael Tabor or Derrick Smith (bookmakers, basically) but the Qatari Sheikhs !?!? no chance. For them they have the champion and a chance to do an unprecedented 3-in-a-row and whether OMR is 115P or 125P couldn't care less, that's what money buys you.

As an example closer to home, of course Glen's Melody's owners looks at what Annie Power is likely to do before they decide to keep running her, ... but Fiona McStay doesn't own 10% of the world's natural gas reserves ! .. if she did I bet she'd be far more keen to just let her mare race on and take on whoever is there.

and it's not like w Australia, say, who might not develop on as a 4yo and not score again at G1 - that would be a disaster. His stud fee is set for now and he'll get a top book of mares as he was foot perfect (bar the calamity at Leopardstown). Treve going on misses one breeding season, and for the chance to make a piece of history that could stand longer than any of us live! .. and she has her 2 Arcs no-one can take away from her, and she's not a commercial property like Australia, surely Sheikh Joaan will use her to support his own sires and race the offspring anyway

ffs.