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San Quentin
14 Apr 14 11:23
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Date Joined: 31 May 03
| Topic/replies: 2,220 | Blogger: San Quentin's blog
Lets get this started.Enjoyed the thread last year.Treve 3/1 at the mo.

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By:
Masterminded
When: 14 Apr 14 14:47
Yep there's not too much to talk about in the race yet. Treve looks about right at 3/1.  No Orfevre or Intello this season so I guess it will be an up and comer proving to be her biggest rival.
By:
ElT
When: 21 Apr 14 16:58
Lac Leman (Doyen-Learned Lady) has been very impressive in his two starts. Will be enough for me, if he wins the German Derby.
By:
Masterminded
When: 28 Apr 14 16:51
Everyone was obviously disappointed with Treve as she got beat but she found herself fighting a battle for 2 or 3 furlongs on her first start back. It was a decent enough run and you would hope she will improve.
By:
sintonian
When: 28 Apr 14 18:25
Good enough run certainly, esp over an inadequate trip, though it did prove she is not unbeatable like she looked last year. She will have to improve now without the allowance.

Thoughts on Shamdalar ? Looked very good the other day.
By:
Masterminded
When: 29 Apr 14 06:58
Did you mean Shamkala? If so yes she couldn't have been more impressive. I'd guess prix Diane next stop. Not heard of Shamdalar.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 30 Apr 14 13:53
Has Treve improved from last year??
Did not look the same filly to me atm Plain
Was her 1st run against a race fit very gd gelding, but I was still a bit surprised she got turned over after all the glowing gallop reports from Dettori Plain
Was a big fan of this filly going into last years Arc, but to my eye she did not travel with the same power last Sunday & was being niggle at some way out (that's not her imo)
Her next run (Royal Ascot) will be of great interest.
By:
San Quentin
When: 30 Apr 14 15:02
even if she runs 4/5 below last years rating which is a big big drop should be good enough to rapt in the richest ever arc.Looking like a big field this year imo.
By:
San Quentin
When: 04 May 14 14:19
Kizuna finished 4th 2m nearest at the end 7/10 fav.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 May 14 11:06
Yep, Shamkala. She is current fav for the Prix Diane.
By:
San Quentin
When: 08 May 14 13:41
Kizuna sustained a small fracture to his near-hind leg and will not be going to Paris.
By:
San Quentin
When: 19 May 14 21:30
will the hype horse continue to shorten?
By:
ThunderRoad
When: 19 May 14 22:20
Would be surprised to see Treve win in an honestly run race. Think Australia will have a huge change whatever. I'm also on Leading Light at big prices - very underrated horse who ran a massive race last year in a race that could hardly have suited less. Would have been bang there if the pace was strong.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 19 May 14 23:17
I can't see past the 3yos this year, I think there are some strong ones. Prince Gibraltar has looked very good - PDJC will tell us more.

I don't give Leading Light a chance - as much as I like him as a stayer, he doesn't have the class to give weight to the best 3yos and Treve. Last year was his chance. I am slightly concerned about Treve's loss to CDA. It's way too early to write her off but I wouldn't be touching 3/1.

I'm always interested in what the Japs send over. Harp Star could be anything - I'd want 30s at this stage. Glad to see Gold Ship may be coming - enigmatic beast, incredible on his day but again doubt he can give weight and win. Kizuna didn't stand a chance anyway.
By:
San Quentin
When: 20 May 14 10:53
not sure i agree with your points FatoteSport Kizuna has got stronger and a little bigger , poss even greater acc,but wont be seeing in Paris this year.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 20 May 14 17:00
San Quentin
30 Apr 14 16:02
Joined:
31 May 03
| Topic/replies: 1,101 | Blogger: San Quentin's blog

even if she runs 4/5 below last years rating which is a big big drop should be good enough to rapt in the richest ever arc.Looking like a big field this year imo.




You believe carrying more weight and running 4/5lbs below last years performance  will still see her to victory?
By:
San Quentin
When: 20 May 14 19:06
yip that imo is carrying the weight.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 20 May 14 23:47
Admittedly that was rather dismissive of me SQ, but I just think the WFA is massive and for a 4yo to win they have to be very good (or a mud lark getting a bit lucky with the weather!) . In Kizuna's case  he was beaten fair and square last year, with Orfevre 2.5L in front and giving him 8lbs. Orfevre is an exceptional horse but didn't manage to win an Arc in two attempts without WFA benefit - I can't have Kizuna rated better than him. The proximity of Penglai Pavilion isn't great either.

Sint, on breeding doesn't Shamkala look like more of a miler?
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 21 May 14 12:42
Re Shamkala;

Her mother, Shamakiya, only raced 4 times. Once over 11f and three times over 12f.
The Grand dam, Shamadara, has produced plenty of 12f+ performers. Including Shamdala, a high class Gr2/Gr1 12f filly.

The way they have campaigned her so far definitely points to her being able to stay.
By:
sintonian
When: 21 May 14 15:53
Breeding for 12f looks pretty good to me Fats though i'd like to see her in a strongly run race first.
By:
deadmurph5
When: 21 May 14 21:23
I like Chiquita at 16s, classic winner who finished behind Treve in the Diane. Once Aidan gets her quirks sorted out, I think she will be a serious contender.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 21 May 14 22:25
She's a grade A nutcase, her and Gold Ship in the same race would be a sight :D

Is 16s a typo? 100 on here and am sure someone would lay double that. They spent a fortune on her didn't they?
By:
sintonian
When: 22 May 14 07:07
yep, can only imagine its for the breeding sheds tbh
By:
deadmurph5
When: 22 May 14 18:03
Yeah, I didn't realize that the market was open on here. Cost £6m too. Shamkala is another filly I really like and with the last 3 winners being 3 year old fillies, and without trying to spark a weight for age/sex debate, she is one that could carry on that trend.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 22 May 14 19:45
Solemia was 4 but fillies have won the last three.

Think until we see the Derby's, Oaks', King George and Grand Prix De Paris its too early to be punting yet.
By:
deepingfox
When: 22 May 14 20:23
SHAMKALA, all the way, she's a staying 3yo filly getting better all the time, Aga Khan bred, 2/1 fav for French Oaks, and 20/1 for the Arc.

20's looks very good value to me.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 24 May 14 22:30
Harp Star runs in the Japanese Oaks tomorrow. Let's hope for another impressive performance.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 25 May 14 11:30
Another crazy hold up performance which didn't quite go to plan. Nuovo record held on for the win.

Harp Star couldn't be ridden with those type of tactics at Longchamp with any great deal of confidence. I'd much rather see a local jock on board too.

Video for those interested:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2uYQxIRTc-I
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 25 May 14 13:38
Awful stuff from the jockey there.
Made an unbelievable amount of ground up in the straight but was given an impossible task.
Have they said that the Arc is on the agenda?
By:
FatoteSport
When: 30 May 14 17:47
I believe so. Sapporo Kinen (1m2f) in August then Arc.
By:
sintonian
When: 30 May 14 21:42
I love the fact the Japanese runners are coming over every year. It adds real spice to the race.
By:
San Quentin
When: 01 Jun 14 08:13
Same here sintonian, but cant get excited by them this year.Prob wrong but think this is a poor batch this time,well could be.The Japanese add colour and excitement to the race and will win it one day and what a party it will be then.But at the mo i will not be on any this year.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jun 14 10:28
Considering Treve will not have the 3 year old allowance this season and the Japanese may not be the forced to be reckoned with does anyone else think the 10's about Australia looks OK? Last year Ruler of the World won a very poor Derby and started at 7s. I would think if Australia wins the Derby he will shorten and if he gets beaten then running him will be a no-brainer. After all if something does come out of the woodwork to beat him chances are they will never run again. Relying on Australia to carry the flag for them.
By:
San Quentin
When: 01 Jun 14 10:35
I still think Treve even without the allowance has to have regressed badly not to go very close again as previous said was such a high performance in 2013 that 4/5 below that imo will be good enough
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jun 14 11:24
I'm sure Treve has a chance and the only winning filly I can find who returned the following year is Three Troikas. TT won a very hot Arc but was then beaten into 4th the next season with 3 year olds filling the first two places. It is good they kept her in training and with the restricted to 4 year old races she should have a great chance at Ascot.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jun 14 11:31
Sounds like another horse you're knocking, in hindsight, Brig. Did you rate her much before she got beat?
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jun 14 11:43
Sintonian when you back or lay horses it's best you know their weaknesses and their strengths. I don't need to hype Treve she has an whole army doing that. All I am trying to do is point out the possible weaknesses for her retaining her crown. I would have thought, as a punter, you would appreciate both sides of the equation. Also if Treve wins the Arc it is more prestige for her.

I thought, at the time, that Danedream's Arc was better and was run more truly, of course I won't get picked up for praising Danedream will I, but I did think Treve's Arc was falsely run and I do think the 3 year old fillies have a distinct advantage and that the 4 year olds have better opportunities now before taking on the 3 year olds there is nothing wrong with understanding the terrain.

I was actually away when Treve was beaten by CDA but I did think at the time reading Paris Turf that if Treve wins she has only beaten a regressing horse and if she loses CDA is not regressing after all. You pay your money and you take your choice.
By:
metro john
When: 01 Jun 14 12:39
Australia is a good price,but the dam wanted it firmer,the breeders may be the desired preference,that said,they could do both?
By:
metro john
When: 01 Jun 14 12:48
Best wait too see how the market reacts to Prince Gibraltar winning the french derby today,you never know he could ease a point?
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jun 14 12:52
Hi MJ. Hope you are well. You could be right about PG. Not a betting race for me but should be a good watch.
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