Anyone else think Australia will now miss 2000 Guineas

It's a possibility I suppose but Ballydoyle have never been one to shirk a challenge. I think he'll still run. They'll lose a lot of credibility if he don't.

Nice piece about Australia here

http://www.aidanobrienfansite.com/australia.php

Hype maybe, but AOB could make himself look a complete **** with statements like that, so I doubt that Australia is anything less than very good and will be trained to the minute.

...will be trained to the minute.

highly unlikely. Australia has a whole season ahead of him that will be centred around landing the big middle distance prizes that Sea The Stars took one a month.

Only problem is that if Kingman runs like he did yesterday, Australia will have to be at least as good as Sea The Stars to win a Guineas. Is he that good?

AOB reckons he's the best he's trained ?  That's a massive statement considering what he has trained and that site clearly states that War Command will only run in the Guineas if something happens to Australia (not if they bottle it)

AOB knows how to win a Guineas, Australia is his 'best horse ever', plus the War Command statement still means it's all systems go as far as I can see.

AOB reckons he's the best he's trained

He also said Camelot was his "best ever". Would imagine he might just edge into Coolmore's top ten, but that's about it.

To be fair though, if we're talking about pre-Guineas hype, Camelot did actually go on to win.

Agreed. One of the worst Guineas in decades.

A win is a win.  You can only beat what's put in front of you and it isn't really until later in the season when we realise how good or bad that form is.

Pre-Guineas the 'best ever' hype would of been valid and if he's saying it once again then we should all be listening, because it means he's got a good one in a race that we don't know will be good or bad (yet)

well if you want to listen to Aidan, shrews, you can get over 6 on here for a horse who is his "best ever"

Great price, well worth an interest.  AOB is the master of the Guineas and The Derby and every year people don't seem to look for someone else, when really it's as clear as daylight that he knows how to train a winner

And to support that with 7/10 of the last Guineas winners didn't have a prep race shows that it's far from a negative, in fact it seems to be a positive for some strange reason. 

Camelot - "best ever comment" - went off at 15/8.  Maybe was really an odds-on chance if you went with the hype ?

Henrythenavigator - won at 11/1, when punters backed Bolgers, Gosdens (never won it) and Suroors

George Washington 6/4 

Footstepsinthesand 13/2

All those 4 were on the back of 2 previous wins (King Of Kings, Rock Of Gibraltar), with people ignoring the quality of the trainer in preparing a horse for this race, especially in HTN and Footsteps.

Let the price keep drifting I say, maybe we'll get an AOB 'Best ever' horse at double figures !

Shrews, for me, that blog clearly demonstrates the mind of someone who has totally bought into the hype. And he talks about War Command as if it was guaranteed he would not be running, when AOB only suggested he might run in France. The latest news is that he will run at HQ.

He could also do with using some more fullstops and commas! Not very good for a blogger to have poor grammar imo!

That's a pretty selective list you've gone for there, Shrews.  I don't think any 'master of the Derby' would have gone ten years without winning one.

Here's another list of AOB Derby horses:

Second Empire
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
9/2
Saratoga Springs
Willie Ryan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
20/1
King of Kings
Pat Eddery
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
11/2
Saffron Walden
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
8/1
Aristotle
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
5/1
Hawk Wing
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
9/4 fav
The Great Gatsby
Pat Eddery
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
20/1
Balestrini
Jamie Spencer
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
66/1
Alberto Giacometti
Christophe Soumillon
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
12/1
Brian Boru
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
9/2
Meath
Jamie Spencer
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
16/1
Gypsy King
Kieren Fallon
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
7/2
Grand Central
Jimmy Fortune
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
25/1
Oratorio
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
8/1
Almighty
Pat Smullen
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
66/1
Dylan Thomas
Johnny Murtagh
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
25/1
Mountain
Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
50/1
Septimus
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
17/2
Horatio Nelson
Kieren Fallon
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
11/2
Eagle Mountain
Johnny Murtagh
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
6/1
Soldier of Fortune
Wayne Lordan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
14/1
Yellowstone
Colm O'Donoghue
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
28/1
Acapulco
Fran Berry
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
66/1
Admiralofthefleet
Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
14/1
Mahler
Pat Smullen
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
20/1
Anton Chekhov
Declan McDonogh
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
50/1
Archipenko
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
13/2
Washington Irving
Colm O'Donoghue
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
33/1
Alessandro Volta
Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
33/1
Frozen Fire
Michael Kinane
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
16/1
King of Rome
Johnny Murtagh
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
16/1
Bashkirov
David McCabe
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
125/1
Fame and Glory
Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
9/4 fav
Masterofthehorse
Richard Hughes
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
16/1
Rip Van Winkle
Johnny Murtagh
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
6/1
Golden Sword
Colm O'Donoghue
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
25/1
Age of Aquarius
Pat Smullen
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
25/1
Black Bear Island
Ryan Moore
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
7/1
At First Sight    Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
100-1
Jan Vermeer    Johnny Murtagh
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
9-4F
Midas Touch    Colm O'Donoghue
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
6-1
Treasure Beach
Colm O'Donoghue
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
25/1
Memphis Tennessee    Joseph O'Brien
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
20/1
Recital    Pat Smullen
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
5/1
Seville    Christophe Soumillon
Aidan O'Brien (IRE)
13/2
Astrology    Ryan Moore
Aidan O'Brien
13-2
Battle of Marengo    Joseph O'Brien
Aidan O'Brien
11-2
Mars    Richard Hughes
Aidan O'Brien
12-1
Flying the Flag    Colm O'Donoghue
Aidan O'Brien
66-1
Festive Cheer    Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien
25-1

Long, isn't it?

Camelot won the Derby also no?

every year we get the " best ive ever trained" from Obrien....

The long list shows that owners trust AOB to prepare a horse for the Guineas and Derby. Why is that ?  Because he wins that's why !

When a multi-winning trainer says his horse is his 'best ever' then people would be fools to not take note, as even if he isn't the 'best ever' he's still going to be bloody good and likely to be spot on for the race.

I would much rather that than back a horse running for a trainer who has never won the race and fails to attract owners who trust him to do so.

Each to his own I say.  Hype it may be, but it's hype from someone who knows how to do the job.

Let that price drift a bit more !

The long list shows that owners trust AOB to prepare a horse for the Guineas and Derby

Owners is stretching it a bit .... Aidan basically only trains for "one" owner called Magnier-Tabor-Smith?

Or a combination of.  And they trust in him above all others because actually he's quite good.

He is very good but he also has more ammunition than any trainer either side of the sea in terms of classic material. I have called AOB a genius at times and I believe he is but he's also far from perfect in some of his approaches. One of those is the hype that comes along with every G1 potential horse that comes along these days. It becomes a little tiresome. Imagine what they would have been like with Frankel. They probably would have entered him In the Monaco Grand Prix.

They probably would have entered him In the Monaco Grand Prix.

He might have won it.

In life there are people who can talk the talk but can't walk the walk.  Lot's of people listen to them and follow them. 

In life there are people who can talk the talk but can also walk the walk. Many people don't like this, they mistake it for arrogance, or dismiss it for any reason they can find, for whatever personal reason they have

My advice is this:  No matter what you feel, no matter who it is, if that person who can 'walk the walk' 'talks the talk' then we should all listen.

So maybe Oz will turn out to be AOB's best ever horse.

But who holds that mantle at the moment? I'd put up an argument for Galileo - did he win a Guineas? It's all about breeding with this lot and the commercial angle, unlike other trainers he is a private one. It's strange that now after the weekend it's now confirmed WC is going to Newmarket.

Whilst they don't shirk a challenge, they'd love an unbeaten stallion. I'm not going to say this will happen, but would you really be surprised if a quote such as ' we've decided that Oz needs a little more time so we are going to wait for the Derrinstown' were to appear?

shrews, Aidan O'Brien is a brilliant trainer, over both flat and jumps. Unfortunately he is a salaried trainer who has to play the Coolmore marketing game and so you have to learn to differentiate between when he is talking about a horse's true ability or it's stallion.

If you care to search out Sandown's long list of O'Brien quotes of Coolmore hyperbole, you will find he probably only has about a 10% success rate when rating his "best ever".....

... stallion potential...

There was an example used above about Camelot being the 'best ever', but like I said then, he did actually go and win the Guineas.

He may well have said it a few times to boost the stallion fees but if he gives us the 2000g winner along the way, who cares ?

Keep listening, make your own mind up about the hype, but don't dismiss his opinion out of hand. That's just plain bonkers !

Let's look at this alleged 'best ever' pre-Guineas hype from the past, see what horses he has supposedly said this about.  Maybe they were all the ones who went on to win the Guineas !

shrews, I've put a job application into Coolmore on your behalf. And if you're working there already, I've requested you be promoted....

Cut the crap Pedro !  Go and find the quotes, let's see who he has said it about !

They could be complete misquotes i.e "he's got the most potential i've ever seen", "he's beating everything at home" etc

If he's said it about the likes of Cristoforo Colombo who went on to flop in the Guineas then maybe we should take the quotes lightly.  If he's said it about George Washington, Henrythenavigator etc then we should all be standing up and taking note.

  ... ok Aidan

Lol.....I would just like to say that all my horses are the best I've ever trained and they will all be available for a stunning bargain price of £100k a pop, whether they run or not. 

Can't say fairer than that.

Now go and get some quotes because I can't find any, apart from what he has said about Australia.

Interesting that we are now getting some Kingman doubt.  Is this why Gosden has had so few runners in the race ?  A bit too protective of them in their early 3yo careers perhaps ?  Or just doubts his own ability to do what AOB consistently does ?

Obviously the Ballydoyle horses are getting better every year.

Courtesy of Sandown in the old War Command thread.

If you can guess which comments apply to which horses then well done. If you can guess how good they might be or even what trips they will excell at, even better.I'll provide the names to the quotes later.


So, courtesy of the RP site:

1.    He´s definitely top class and is an exciting prospect for next year. He stays well and also has plenty of pace, so I wouldn´t rule him out as a Guineas horse, although he is bred to get the Derby trip. We had big plans for him this season, but he coughed for most of the year." - Aidan O´Brien

2.    He had things very much his own way in his three races last year, and the intention today, win, lose, or draw, was to educate him. He had no experience of being in among horses, and I was a bit worried as to how he would react. Last year he got by with the help of raw ability, but with some big days ahead it was vital that he should learn something from this. A O´Brien

3.    3There is no doubt that this is a brilliant two-year-old. He has two extra gears and that acceleration is electric. It wasn´t as if he got first run - he let the others have that. He´s a very serious horse and has never been extended. A O´Brien


He´s as good a two-year-old as I´ve ridden. In fact I don´t think I´ve ever ridden a better one - Mick Kinane.

4.    He finished on the bit in the Coventry - he couldn´t get out and Michael Kinane never even shook the reins at him. Michael sat on the pace all the way today and let him go, and he wasn´t at his end going to the line. Michael felt in the last half-furlong he was only beginning to get going, and that is a great sign. It´s a long way off (2,000 Guineas), but you have to be thinking that way at the minute. He´s in all the top two-year-old races and we will get them out of the way first - Aidan O´Br

5 He just has an unbelievable amount of natural ability. To watch him, he always quickens your heart. He´s a very dangerous type of horse because he can make you say stuff as everybody saw last year, and as I´ve learned recently, you have to be very careful. If I blow up a horse too much because I believe it, the horse can pay the penalty. This is the sort of horse that can do that but he has the ability to go with it - Aidan O´Brien, trainer


6.    He is an exciting horse and he has always been a stunner in his work. He has a surge in the middle of a race that makes him very unusual. He goes from first gear to third and he still has two more gears when you want them. He could come back here for the Phoenix Stakes next month or he could wait. He has all the options and he is good enough to go anywhere - Aidan O´Brien, trainer

7.    7.XXXX  has always believed he was so much better than everything around because he was so superior and he´s been like that since the time he was born. He has developed a real personality about it. He has a big attitude. If you saw the horses he has been working with and the way he was working with them….. We never had a colt that had such a domineering instinct. In the barn he can intimidate other horses just by looking at them. Other horses get out of his way. - Aidan O´Brien, trainer

8.    He´s a very exciting and very serious horse. He is a really good mover, so the ground (good to firm) wasn´t a worry today.

9.    He always was an exceptional horse at home. The times he got beat it was winter ground. He is a real fast ground horse, a real miler with loads of sprinting speed.

10This colt is a beauty. He´s been a proper horse all the way at home. It was always going to the same as Galileo with this fellow - one run and then put him away until next season.

11    I´ve always thought that he was a special horse, and he has done everything right so far. Hopefully it will be a case on onwards and upwards now - Seamus Heffernan

12   XXXX  is a great horse and won there despite Joseph saying that he absolutely hated the ground. We´ve never had one like him - Aidan O´Brien, trainer

13  He´s real classy and while the stallion would suggest he will be a middle distance horse, he certainly doesn´t lack speed. …. He´s very athletic and has loads of gears and a lovely action. Aidan O´Brien, trainer

14. He has an unbelievable cruise. He won his maiden very easily then we were kind of intent on leaving him alone for the year. We then gave him one little bit of work and he was very fresh after. Then the big exam for this race was being sat and we said we´d let him sit on it and he passed with flying colours. All the data on him and all his figures stacked up very good but you never know until they go and do it - Aiden O´Brien

15 We always thought he was very smart and he has a lot of class. He has the movement and looks and is an exciting horse.

16 I was very worried about the ground. He´s a beautiful action horse and it was very fast the day he won at Ascot and that´s really what he wants. I´d say he´s done enough now [for the season]. He´s a big powerful horse. I think he´ll get a mile and he travelled very strong. Aidan O´Brien, trainer

17 We have always thought there was something very different about him. We really have always thought the world of him. He doesn´t know he´s a racehorse yet. He´s very special

1Galileo
2. Giants Causeway
3. Johanessburg
4.Rock of Gibralter
5. Hawk Wing
6. One Cool Cat
7. George Washington
8. High Chaparral
9. Henrythenavigator
10. ****
11. Fame and Glory
12 Camelot
13. St Nicholas Abbey
14. Kingsbarns
15. Magician
16. War Command
17. Australia
18 So You Think

So there's 17 quotes there and not one of them says the horse is his 'best ever', apart from 12 (Camelot? Who went on to win the Guineas)  It looks like the only 'best ever' quote that has applied to a pre-2000 Guineas horse, other than Camelot, is the recent one for Australia ?

And if he thinks Australia is better than Camelot then that's significant, because contrary to what has been suggested by others he hasn't said that about every horse at all.

In addition, the other quotes are hardly 'over the top' considering what the majority of them went on to achieve on the racecourse.

All the horses seem to have plenty of gears.  It would be easier for Joseph O'Brien if they had automatic or cruise control.

Which horse should have got the comment "I think he has a bad dose of seconditis.  It might be best to back him for a place."
Or, and I'm quoting ... "The 'Second Coming who keeps coming second' and 'a big girl's blouse' were two of the comments about him."

Free Eagle out of the Derby.

So I see Australia seems to have made the race, now there's a surprise !

I

I think Aiden mentioned best ever in relation to King of Kings. I also remember him twice mentioning that they have
a list of premier names that they only use for their best prospects ( eg 'King of Kings'?), I don't know how serious
he was about that.