Horse Antepost
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Very little racing of worth this week, so have spent a couple of hours narrowing down the above race. This is my longlist:
Chookie Royale
Mull of Killough
Mirsaale
Parish Hall
Premie Loco
Solar Deity
Windhoek
Chil the Kite
Grandeur
Have taken Grandeur off my list as I wasn't overly impressed last time, he got a beautiful tow in and the race fell into his hands. Add to that the fact he'll probably be 6/4 or shorter means I couldn't consider backing him.
Any thoughts on this race so far? Hopefully my job will be made easier when the field is narrowed down.
Chookie Royale
Mull of Killough
Mirsaale
Parish Hall
Premie Loco
Solar Deity
Windhoek
Chil the Kite
Grandeur
Have taken Grandeur off my list as I wasn't overly impressed last time, he got a beautiful tow in and the race fell into his hands. Add to that the fact he'll probably be 6/4 or shorter means I couldn't consider backing him.
Any thoughts on this race so far? Hopefully my job will be made easier when the field is narrowed down.
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Life's been made a lot easier already at the 5 day stage - horses remaining on the shortlist and their current prices:
Mirsaale: 20/1
Parish Hall: 10/1
Premier Loco: 16/1
Windhoek: 10/1
Chill the Kite: 25/1
Mirsaale: 20/1
Parish Hall: 10/1
Premier Loco: 16/1
Windhoek: 10/1
Chill the Kite: 25/1
Will knock Mirsaale off the shortlist too - looks a 95-100 horse at best. Leaves:
Parish Hall: 10/1
Premier Loco: 16/1
Windhoek: 10/1
Chill the Kite: 25/1
Parish Hall: 10/1
Premier Loco: 16/1
Windhoek: 10/1
Chill the Kite: 25/1
I like Parish Hall - Group 1 winner, highly tried. Didn't enjoy soft ground latest but won quite well at Dundalk on penultimate start. Beat two 105-108 horses into 2nd and 3rd that day. Looks 110+ which should be enough to run into a place at the minimum. 10/1 a nice price; will it run though?
could end up a very messy race this, with really only one pace angle in mirsaale and nothing else really, plus if he wasn't to run maybe dickdoughtywylie but just guessing at the moment...the draw will be important and we will know more when that is drawn
Mar 17, 2014 -- 8:39PM, harry callaghan wrote:
could end up a very messy race this, with really only one pace angle in mirsaale and nothing else really, plus if he wasn't to run maybe dickdoughtywylie but just guessing at the moment...the draw will be important and we will know more when that is drawn
Have yet to look at the race from a pace POV - slow pace wouldn't do Parish Hall any harm as he likes to be prominent. I am worried about the 3 pound penalty though. Windhoek's another interesting one @ 10's. Looks to have been targeted at this race over the winter, was well-backed when when in Meydan off a mark of 104. Would have a few pounds to find on form alone, but should be sharper for that run, could have improved over the winter and definitely one to have onside. Premier Loco's latest performance has put me off him (even though the race wasn't run to suit), and at 10 years old, this is a big ask. Chil the Kite will be a small saver @ 25/1 - has been running solidly in Dubai off a mark of 108, which is a tough ask for any horse.
Fingers crossed Parish Hall, Windhoek and CTK all run for my money!
Not had a good look at race yet but Varian seems quite happy with his horse
..........................................................................
Before then, Varian is optimistic Farraaj can claim back-to-back wins in Saturday's coral.co.uk Winter Derby at Lingfield.
The five-year-old, who races in the colours of Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum, justified favouritism in the Group 3 last year, but is 6-1 second choice in the betting behind Grandeur.
Varian, however, thinks Farraaj will perform well, despite an absence of nearly seven months.
"He's in great form," added Varian, who was speaking to At The Races. "He hasn't run for a while, but can go well fresh and we've had a trouble-free preparation.
"I've been really pleased with his training and he looks ready for this. As he won the race last year we thought we should get him fit and ready for it again and he's working as well as ever.
"I'm looking forward to Saturday. It looks a tougher race than last year so probably he has more to do."
..........................................................................
Before then, Varian is optimistic Farraaj can claim back-to-back wins in Saturday's coral.co.uk Winter Derby at Lingfield.
The five-year-old, who races in the colours of Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum, justified favouritism in the Group 3 last year, but is 6-1 second choice in the betting behind Grandeur.
Varian, however, thinks Farraaj will perform well, despite an absence of nearly seven months.
"He's in great form," added Varian, who was speaking to At The Races. "He hasn't run for a while, but can go well fresh and we've had a trouble-free preparation.
"I've been really pleased with his training and he looks ready for this. As he won the race last year we thought we should get him fit and ready for it again and he's working as well as ever.
"I'm looking forward to Saturday. It looks a tougher race than last year so probably he has more to do."
Grandeur looks to have a pretty good chance of landing this.
Comparing the ratings,RPR and Track speed from the decs it's well clear
now Mull Of Kinloch has withdrawn.
Since 2000 the winners have all had a 50% or more win strike rate on AW apart from Scintillo who won only once, but it was his latest race - and a Listed one, prior to Winter derby.
Eleven of the previous sixteen winners had won at Lingfield prior to this race.
Comparing the ratings,RPR and Track speed from the decs it's well clear
now Mull Of Kinloch has withdrawn.
Since 2000 the winners have all had a 50% or more win strike rate on AW apart from Scintillo who won only once, but it was his latest race - and a Listed one, prior to Winter derby.
Eleven of the previous sixteen winners had won at Lingfield prior to this race.
Forgot to mention that no horse has won it twice (Farraaj)
Thunder Road.
I would take out Premio Loco and Chil The Kite on form figures,
as far as the winner is concerned.
I would take out Premio Loco and Chil The Kite on form figures,
as far as the winner is concerned.
Grandeur is set to wear cheekpieces for the first time in the coral.co.uk Winter Derby at Lingfield on Saturday.
Connections feel it will be a way to counteract the horse idling as he did when winning the Winter Derby Trial over the course and distance last month.
Grandeur is a short-priced favourite in the ante-post market for the Group Three contest and his trainer Jeremy Noseda wants the horse's supporters to view the move as a positive one.
"He is going to run in sheepskin cheekpieces on Saturday, but I don't want anyone to be concerned," the Newmarket handler told At the Races.
"It's just a decision between Ryan (Moore) and myself that he idled so much last time when he hit the front, we felt he just needed something to focus his mind.
"I don't want anyone taking it as a negative and I actually think it would be a positive towards Saturday. If people see that come Saturday, I'd look at it as more of a positive than a negative."
Rebellious Guest is an outsider at around 20-1, but his trainer George Margarson believes his five-year-old is now at the top of his game with three wins from five starts this year already.
"He has shown us he is the horse we actually thought he was as a three-year-old," said the Newmarket trainer.
"He's coming right back to form and has gone up to a rating of 100. He's in the Winter Derby and I'm under no illusions he's going to have to improve another 10lb."
Connections feel it will be a way to counteract the horse idling as he did when winning the Winter Derby Trial over the course and distance last month.
Grandeur is a short-priced favourite in the ante-post market for the Group Three contest and his trainer Jeremy Noseda wants the horse's supporters to view the move as a positive one.
"He is going to run in sheepskin cheekpieces on Saturday, but I don't want anyone to be concerned," the Newmarket handler told At the Races.
"It's just a decision between Ryan (Moore) and myself that he idled so much last time when he hit the front, we felt he just needed something to focus his mind.
"I don't want anyone taking it as a negative and I actually think it would be a positive towards Saturday. If people see that come Saturday, I'd look at it as more of a positive than a negative."
Rebellious Guest is an outsider at around 20-1, but his trainer George Margarson believes his five-year-old is now at the top of his game with three wins from five starts this year already.
"He has shown us he is the horse we actually thought he was as a three-year-old," said the Newmarket trainer.
"He's coming right back to form and has gone up to a rating of 100. He's in the Winter Derby and I'm under no illusions he's going to have to improve another 10lb."
The Decs are published - 14 runners
2014 Picks
GRANDEUR
Won the trial and gets away with penalty for Grp 2 wins in 2012
Two from two in Listed races and Trainer mentioned he might have taken an engagement in Dubai after last win but comes here instead.
Sensible decision considering the long distance travel journeys in 2012 which seemed to take it's toll last year, when two long distance travel races came out negative. Also no Dubai winter runner has come back to win this race.
DICKIE DOUGHTWYLIE
Not quite 50% ratio on AW (1-3) but a listed winner at the track latest makes this one a decent bet at current price.
FAARAAJ
Has to overcome the statistic that says no horse has won this twice.
Very lightly raced last two years but produced a win in each year at Lingfield and is 2 from 2 at track.
2014 Picks
GRANDEUR
Won the trial and gets away with penalty for Grp 2 wins in 2012
Two from two in Listed races and Trainer mentioned he might have taken an engagement in Dubai after last win but comes here instead.
Sensible decision considering the long distance travel journeys in 2012 which seemed to take it's toll last year, when two long distance travel races came out negative. Also no Dubai winter runner has come back to win this race.
DICKIE DOUGHTWYLIE
Not quite 50% ratio on AW (1-3) but a listed winner at the track latest makes this one a decent bet at current price.
FAARAAJ
Has to overcome the statistic that says no horse has won this twice.
Very lightly raced last two years but produced a win in each year at Lingfield and is 2 from 2 at track.
Sad to see Parish Hall out. Have just had a bet on Windhoek @ 20/1(!?!) with 888 - they either know something or have priced him up wrongly as he is 3/4 times the price he is with other bookies.
NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR
1 (11) 1071-3 Anaconda 28 5 9-0 Tom Dascombe25 Richard Kingscote 102
2 (4) 1-2575 Aussie Reigns 21 4 9-0 William Knight Adam Kirby 102
3 (13) 24-089 Chil The Kite 21 5 9-0 Hughie Morrison Richard Hughes 105
4 (5) 0/666- Circumvent 183 7 9-0 Paul Cole Jim Crowley 95
5 (12) 39521- Dick Doughtywylie 91 t 6 9-0 John Gosden100 William Buick 102
6 (9) 1/150- Farraaj 208 5 9-0 Roger Varian100 Andrea Atzeni 105
7 (14) 2717-1 Grandeur 28 p 5 9-0 Jeremy Noseda100 Ryan Moore 117
8 (10) 7/197- Mirsaale 260 4 9-0 James Tate100 Joe Fanning 105
9 (1) 1430-3 Premio Loco 24 10 9-0 Chris Wall George Baker 110
10(3) 31141 Rebellious Guest 17 5 9-0 George Margarson Tom Queally 92
11(8) 76-614 Robin Hoods Bay 28 6 9-0 Ed Vaughan Luke Morris 103
12(6) 4342-5 Vodkato 18 p 6 9-0 S Wattel Theo Bachelot 100
13(7) 8722-1 Windhoek 58 4 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa 105
14(2) 55-236 Tinshu 28 p 8 8-11 Derek Haydn Jones Jamie Spencer 95
nasty draw for grandeur although the pace looks high, although i'm still not convinced how much pace there will actually be...no parish hall in the line up
1 (11) 1071-3 Anaconda 28 5 9-0 Tom Dascombe25 Richard Kingscote 102
2 (4) 1-2575 Aussie Reigns 21 4 9-0 William Knight Adam Kirby 102
3 (13) 24-089 Chil The Kite 21 5 9-0 Hughie Morrison Richard Hughes 105
4 (5) 0/666- Circumvent 183 7 9-0 Paul Cole Jim Crowley 95
5 (12) 39521- Dick Doughtywylie 91 t 6 9-0 John Gosden100 William Buick 102
6 (9) 1/150- Farraaj 208 5 9-0 Roger Varian100 Andrea Atzeni 105
7 (14) 2717-1 Grandeur 28 p 5 9-0 Jeremy Noseda100 Ryan Moore 117
8 (10) 7/197- Mirsaale 260 4 9-0 James Tate100 Joe Fanning 105
9 (1) 1430-3 Premio Loco 24 10 9-0 Chris Wall George Baker 110
10(3) 31141 Rebellious Guest 17 5 9-0 George Margarson Tom Queally 92
11(8) 76-614 Robin Hoods Bay 28 6 9-0 Ed Vaughan Luke Morris 103
12(6) 4342-5 Vodkato 18 p 6 9-0 S Wattel Theo Bachelot 100
13(7) 8722-1 Windhoek 58 4 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa 105
14(2) 55-236 Tinshu 28 p 8 8-11 Derek Haydn Jones Jamie Spencer 95
nasty draw for grandeur although the pace looks high, although i'm still not convinced how much pace there will actually be...no parish hall in the line up
There's few consistent front-runners in the race, but plenty of horses who can (and may) front-run:
Windhoek
Premier Loco
Dick D
Anaconda
Mirsaale
Add to that, there's several horses who won't lead, but will race prominently and will help keep the pace brisk. I certainly can't see it being a crawl.
Windhoek
Premier Loco
Dick D
Anaconda
Mirsaale
Add to that, there's several horses who won't lead, but will race prominently and will help keep the pace brisk. I certainly can't see it being a crawl.
Sri Diamond won from draw 14 (2006)
The draw numbers that have failed to win (16 races) are 6,8,9,12,13
The draw numbers that have failed to win (16 races) are 6,8,9,12,13
Just had my bet cancelled by 888 Sport due to an "obvious mistake with the odds". Is there anything I can do?
Doubt it.
They were probably slow in changing from Ante Post prices?
They were probably slow in changing from Ante Post prices?
ThunderRoad 20 Mar 14 12:54 Joined: 09 May 12 | Topic/replies: 3,602 | Blogger: ThunderRoad's blog
Angry Just had my bet cancelled by 888 Sport due to an "obvious mistake with the odds". Is there anything I can do?
Palpable error mate unfortunately. Count your lucky stars that they did not choose to do this AFTER the race IF the horse won!
Angry Just had my bet cancelled by 888 Sport due to an "obvious mistake with the odds". Is there anything I can do?
Palpable error mate unfortunately. Count your lucky stars that they did not choose to do this AFTER the race IF the horse won!
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