Annie Power - surely goes for the World Hurdle?

Annie Power is not rated the best 2 mile hurdler by Timeform EO the sooner you realise this the better.

I've already clarified this Angel. Could you clarify which part of this you consider wrong?

Like I keep pointing out allowing for the mares allowance timeform already have her down as the best two mile horse in the champion field and she's still improving.

Jan 31, 2014 -- 2:30PM, duffy wrote:

Have the european commission changed the rules on numbers now, when I last looked 173 was a higher number than 167.

WAR OF ATTRITION had beaten the previous Gold Cup winner in the season of his Gold CUP win,
he sustained an injury which eventually curtailed his racing career.

This is what Matt Gardner of Timeform had to say:

The Champion Hurdle is shaping up to be one of the best renewals in recent memory, with Hurricane Fly, The New One, My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor and Jezki all set to clash, whereas the World Hurdle looks eminently "winnable", assuming that Big Buck's isn't at his best in March.

What if he is though? There was enough hope to be garnered from the reappearance of Big Buck's in the Cleeve Hurdle to suggest that a return to his peak was possible and, when that is allied to the fact that Annie Power is unproven over further than two and a half miles, the World Hurdle doesn't look that attractive after all.

Yes the Champion Hurdle will be harder to win, but then it's a race that carries far greater prestige than the World Hurdle and what do connections have to fear? Annie Power is the best mare in training, rated only 6 lb inferior to Hurricane Fly on Timeform figures with the 'p' still attached, so when you factor in her 7 lb mares' allowance she is the pick at the weights.

Some would say that running in the World Hurdle would be playing it safe, being the simpler assignment, but it really isn't safe given that we don't know for certain that will she stay or be as effective at three miles. What we do know is that the two miles of the Champion Hurdle poses no problems; she is a top-class performer and will be in no way out of place in the line-up.

Bucks!

EO this is your opinion on the other thread about Annie Power


Eeternaloptimist • January 27, 2014 11:36 PM GMT
Nobody is questioning her potential or collateral form over further. What some of us are questioning is why out of numerous opportunities to run her in a decent 2 mile race to see where they stand they haven't?

Yet it seems now you are championing her being the best 2 miler in the Champion Hurdle. How can this be when she hasn`t run in any decent 2 mile races, as you put it?

No matter how good she is, how many horses have there been down the years who could have genuinely won either the Champion or World/Stayers Hurdle in the same year?  Very few hurdlers genuinely stay 3m and most don't have the pace for 2m.  I'm sure she has a best distance and I'm sure that connections will pick her race based on that distance.

I'm not championing anything Angel. I've stated as a fact that with her mares allowance timeform have her top rated for the champion hurdle. My point of view stated elsewhere is that given Ricci's comments it is bizarre that she could go for two races and connections haven't assessed her true capabilities over either distance. That's bad management in my view.

Ratings are assessed on ability alone EO, with her allowance she is weighted to win if the 167 has been achieved over 2 miles but it hasn`t. She was 167 before the Doncaster race.

Matt Gardner

rated only 6 lb inferior to Hurricane Fly on Timeform figures with the 'p' still attached, so when you factor in her 7 lb mares' allowance she is the pick at the weights.

Pick of the weights EO.

At last. It may save time in future if you agree to start with and you can tell that fellow miscreant citing the european commission that he can come out from behind the sofa now.

This is not the politics forum EO, this is not a not a subjective matter.

Annie Power is not the top rated horse in the Champion Hurdle, do you agree?The library of timeform awaits your submission.

ANNIE POWER WONT GO TO CHELTENHAM 

How you know that?

You crack me up Angel.

If Mullins lets the hand brake off this machine it won't matter if Ruby stays loyal to The Fly. McCririck could ride it waving a ten gallon hat at the crowd and she will still be pulling his arms off as she passes the line with only clear daylight for company.

Timeform know. They've had the office whip round and are just waiting for the green light.

By the way which horse is the top rated horse in the Champion by Timeform?

I get the distinct impression that AP is behind UDS ...at least in Walsh's opinion....only basing it on the impression you get from listening to him talk about the two of them.......paradoxically, that may well aid AP's participation in the CH....as, in the face of an eager Ricci, Walsh wouldn't mind so much offering his encouragement as he doesn't fear her as much as UDS...... total guesswork as usual but that's all we've got.

Read that a few times now Duffy over a period of 2 days, as much as i try i can`t make head nor tail of it.

Seems pretty clear to me. Ruby doesn't want to pick the wrong one and Mullins is keen for The Fly to achieve immortality. If Annie was seen as the danger they wouldn't want to run her and risk that but according to Duffy they think that UDS is the better horse and so are more likely to let Annie run and finish third or fourth.

Obviously I disagree.

Yep EO...you got it in one.

Obviously

But if they feared UDS over AP to upset the Hurricane Fly apple cart then surely Walsh would not be so keen to let everyone know that she is not short on stamina. They have hardly pointed Ricci in the direction of the CH for AP have they?

It`s always best to be on the flip side of EO when it comes to the Champion Hurdle, he didn`t think HF had much form before last years race.

He made similar comments about UDS Angel. Ruby wants the best chance in each race so I'd imagine he'd be quite happy for either Annie or UDS for the stayers with the other kept back for a spring campaign of the two and a half miler at Aintree and then Punchestown.

If either The Fly or Quevega were unable to run I'd also imagine he'd then be campaigning for one of the other two to step up to the champion or Annie for the mares.

As for my views on The Fly they've remained constant. I don't think he's beaten a great champion field yet and I don't think he's quite as good at Cheltenham but that he is all all time great horse. If he beats this field I will look again at that view.

EO

You think then that walsh rates her superior to UDS?

Also, how do we interpret Ricci's comment that he is sensitive to the yard and one thing that will not happen is any falling out over it and he will trust them to put her in the right race.

I think that suggests that we will not get the foot being put down from him over this issue...and he's happy to leave it to their conscience.

That's easier said than done though, if she never ran and it panned out badly for HF...it would leave him irked to say the least and maybe with repurcussions.

The other thing that Ricci has on his side (apart from being the owner)...is that he keeps pointing out that he was all for going chasing with her this year but postponed it for a year to see if she was a CH horse....so, presumably he was getting plenty of encouragement at the start of the season and was arguably the one that had to be convinced....so now, he's entitled to be saying to mullins...well there you go then...she's done all you've asked re: CH participation.

It wouldn`t be ideal for Hurricane if UDS ran, because of the strong pace UDS would set. It would however suit The New One and My Tent Or Yours for example.

Ricci did resist sending AP chasing this season to see if she was a CH horse, so really he should be putting his foot down now and shouting it from the roof if she was going to run in the CH. She will not run in the CH, i am quite sure of this now.

Duffy, i never read your last post before i posted mine.

They same the same thing really.

Annie Power, 10 races over 2 & 2.5 miles, not come close to getting beat.  Why on earth would they want to run in the Champion Hurdle the most prestigious of all hurdle races.  Ruby says  "Let's wait for the big day and test if she stays 3m against the best stayers around and completely unproven over the trip".  Sounds like a plan to me???????

None of those races at a true Championship 2 mile pace though shockster. Soft ground doddles. The best pieces of form are the 2 races against Zarkandar who himself would have wanted a faster pace.

Agree with what you say Angel, but how many trials have we seen at true Championship pace.  WPM has found some soft races for her and surely should have found a soft race over 3m if that's where she is to go.  I am as certain as I can be that if she were at another stable she would rightly be going for the Champion with a cracking chance.  Maybe she should emulate MYSILV and run in both. Just joking.

She may well be good enough to win either but in the long term I believe a slog over 2m will be better for her than a dour battle over 3 with Big Bucks.

She hasn't contested any race that has contained one of the other CH contenders either, why on earth when you're bringing her over here anyway do you not race in either the FF or the Christmas Hurdle...especially when the whole point of this season was to find out whether she was a viable CH contender.

Now, while she has performed well this season and done absolutely nothing to count her out of being a contender, it can also be said that "arguably" we are no further forward with knowing whether she really is a contender or not.........and much the same can be said of UDS too.

No argument from me Duffy.  I'd run them both in the Champion.  They might or might not be good enough.  One thing for certain is that they both have had a terrible prep IMHO and daft as this will sound, if either of them win it, they've still been campaigned poorly.  It would be some horse to win after the prep they've had as not battle hardened.

They would both be in the CH were they trained by anyone else,as they would have run in a race or 2 during the season that would have showed their true capabilities,thats providing of course that they are both as good as I think they are!!

Really think they could well look a tad foolish if they are not running on the Tuesday and HF gets beat!!
Mind you if the owner of UDS watched Walsh on the RUK preview,he would be insisting UDS runs!!!
Ricci wants the CH imo,but most of all he wants an exciting Gold Cup type chaser next few years.
I can see AP not running at all if they don't go CH.

Fighting Fifth the 30th Nov, only 7 days after the Coral Hurdle at Ascot for similar money...explains why they didn`t take in the Fighting Fifth if it was ever on the radar.

They just don`t want her to lose her unbeaten tag until it really counts.

duffy

I can't really say what Ruby thinks and rarely bother to listen to their thoughts. Their job is to steer them and jockeys make poor judges usually. That was my opinion that I don't think any horse would be able to give her 7lbs on the Tuesday. Any horse.

Agree EO, any mare that beats Doyly Carte on the snaff will take some stopping in the Champion Hurdle.

No Angel. The mare which had Cockney Sparrow scrubbing along going to 2 out while she was sauntering home is the one who the others wouldn't give 7lbs to.

And just to be clear unless you have some evidence to the contrary timeform agree with me.

I haven't read the whole thread so apologies if this point has been made. But there's obviously a power struggle going on here. The owner clearly wants to go for the Champion. It clearly makes no sense to go anywhere else. But WM doesn't wants Hurricane Fly to win a third champion because they all feel (probably with some justification) that he hasn't quite had the credit he deserves in England at least, and being a triple champion might put that right.

To step up to 3m for the first time in the WH against Big Bucks would be madness. It could finish her, she's never had a real race yet, and that is such a gruelling race, against one of the hardest horses in history, even if he is a little past his best. The owner has said she was only kept over hurdles at all to run in the champion. If the trainer tells him not to run her, frankly, he should be stripped of his licence, because he isn't acting for his owners or the horse. There's no logical argument than can possibly be made for stepping up a horse who has done what she has, who is fizzy and highly strung, and just very very fast.

That's what should happen. I have no clue what WILL happen, I suspect she will be declared for both and then suddenly be "not quite right" and wait for Liverpool.

I think its pretty clear that AP would be a huge runner in the CH. With the 7lb shes gonna be hard to beat and personally I don't think any of her potential rivals could get away with that concession,aside the totally unexposed UDS who literally could be anything!!

The Owner knows this I would think, and if Mullins says she aint running for whatever reason, surely Ricci will be asking his trainer serious questions.....I certainly would!!

As for the WHurdle,i don't see her running in that race now that Big Bucks is back on the scene.
Something were to happen with BB then maybe, but not if he turns up.

CH or no Cheltenham imo.

Way too much is being made over how she hasn't had a 3 mile run

Check Inglis Drever and Solwhit's 3 mile runs before their World Hurdle wins

For some strange reason even before Ricci gave Mullins the call on where to run Annie Power, he was mulling over whether he thought Annie Power had true 2 mile championship credentials by going back to the race at Naas where in receipt of her mares allowance she beat Defy Logic rated 148 pushed out by 3L. It`s hard to say that she looked electric over 2 miles then is it? She has then improved over further where she has received her 167p mark from Timeform. The Doncaster race

EO Timeform only agree with you if she can reach 167 over 2 miles. Comprende? If only you had listened to timeform last year EO, you just can`t get it right can you.

By the way Doyly Carte was going better than Cockney Sparrow at the time of that fall.

*The Doncaster race was no CH trial.

With you on that one Ash.

The World Hurdle is there for the taking, she has improved over 20f so why not step her up again.

Going a step quicker than she ever gone in the CH has more chance of giving her a hard race than cruising around over 3 miles even if there is a chance of the choke being out slightly.

At Doncaster she beat a 123 rated mare by 22L, that is not CH form. There is 4/5 very good made for measure 2 milers in the CH. She has never run at these fractions before.

Yep Angel - just don't see this Champion Hurdle thing working out as people think - she took an age to get going at Ascot and to some degree Cheltenham when beating Zarkandar, of a Champ Hurdle pace she could be beaten out of sight by the 2nd last (unlikely) but that has more chance of happening that her failing to see out 3 miles off a crawl fro the 1st half of it. We've already seen the way to get Big Bucks beaten is to have him making his own pace and doing the work - I don't see any pace in the World Hurdle


STD will have Big Bucks held up more this time - Ruby will be able to just sit in behind him and do all, in any, of the work after the last..

Also we saw what a fright Voler La Vedette gave Big Bucks in 2012. Well Annie Power is much better than her over 20f, no doubt AP has more pace and as you say will not need to be asked the question until very late on.

I don,t care were she runs, isnt zark a few lbs better wearing blinkers? and am I right in thinking the only time he has worn them this season was when he faced TNO ??

imo I don,t think she can be competitive in a CH, if she could be why hasn't the best trainer in Ireland campaigned her that way? why, because he knows....

I cant see her stepping up in trip either, I mean why do that now, if they thought she was a world hurdler they wouldn't have dropped down to 2 miles.

Aintree beckons imo

They dropped her down to 2 miles at Donny for the sole reason to bag 20k without her getting off the bridle. They have just been bagging wonga without losing the unbeaten tag. They will only put that on the line when it`s a big one.

Winning a World Hurdle is also a nice way to find out whether she could stay 3 miles round Cheltenham over fences

Which will surely decide how she's campaigned next year, before a 2016 tilt at the Gold Cup - which imo is the long term target

but the bloke who owns it and pays the bills said we didn't go chasing this year as we wanted to see if she was  a CH horse ?

maybe they've seen that she isn't a CH horse...

I think too much is being made of that comment... huge difference between wanting to and actually doing

Ricci will still pay the bills whatever happens, as he want to be with the best trainer and have the best jockey

He did say that alleged but he now see`s that the World Hurdle is another `big one`. His options have evolved.

4.8 for the World Hurdle
17 for the Champion Hurdle

Best priced 7/1 for CH.........7/2 FOR wh.

that's what the bookies are saying.

Well,we can all have our say on where the horse should run,but end of the day I just hope the horse ends up in the race she SHOULD be in.
All her form is at distances from 2 to 2 and a halfm, so purely on that I would say he should go for the CHurdle or save her for Aintree.
Don't see the point in taking chances re the WH at this stage of her career to be honest.
If she proves not good enough in the CH then so be it,but at least she would have had a go,and really with 7lb she does have a fair chance of winning the race,imo anyway.
Whatever happens its all a stepping stone to what connections hope is a chasing career aimed at the very top...Gold Cup.
Probably run for a few more weeks before anything is decided,doubt she will run again before March.

What's wrong with running over 3 miles...if she is going to be a GC horse some day then it would be a good fact finding mission as well as having a good chance of winning a WH.

Duffy you could say the same this year for Champagne Fever and maybe last year as well, but owner wanted the 2m Supreme and he won it.  Looks like he'll get 2m Arkle this year, but Ricci still ants the Gold Cup with Him next year.  Will we have the same argument next year with AP.  Arkle/JLT/RSA.  The year after our heads may explode with AP and CF going for Gold.  What willl WPM do then?

2 mile Champion is the hurdle race Ricci wants IMO.

At Doncaster she beat a 123 rated mare by 22L, that is not CH form. There is 4/5 very good made for measure 2 milers in the CH. She has never run at these fractions before.

That's one way of looking at it Angel. Another is that she beat a 140 rated mare 15 lengths on the bridle. Another is that Cockney Sparrow who ran a 3 length second to My Tent Or Yours in the fighting fifth was scrubbed along and not closing when coming down two out despite Annie Power travelling with a double handful.

Which is why I asked you how timeform rated that performance?

No idea how Timeform rated the Doncaster race. She was 167p based on her previous form.

What have they told you?

Oddly enough on OR(official ratings) they have knocked her down 2lbs, giving her a mark of 163, her highest mark being 165 after beating Zarkandar in the Dornan at Chelts.

Hurricane Fly has an OR of 175.

could Big Bucks give 7lbs to AP over 3 miles

Depends how well she stays 3m at this stage of her career,and how good she is in relation to Big Bucks at his stage of his career..
Unknown really.

How would Annie Power be priced up against an 8 year old Voler La Vedette for the World Hurdle? that mare gave Big Bucks a fright in 2012..

No doubt most would expect AP to be the superior of the two mares.

She was never 29 to 1 in running either! Couldnt resist it.

Angel

Annie has never run over 3 miles. Some two and a half milers step up and make the grade. Some don't.

I am more than willing to take the chance she will run to her mark over 3 miles than take the chance on her enjoying the fractions in the CH against battle hardened 2 milers.

It`s all about opinions. GL with your own judgement.

And you Angel.

if the weather forecasters are right (wettest winter in history), Cheltenham will be soft or worse come the start of the festival. That makes the CH a more attractive option for Annie Power, and the World Hurdle less likely.

Plat, you've been around long enough to know that the track could be like the Caspian Sea on the 8th and "soft, good to soft in places" by noon on the 11th.

Agreed. Those last few days are what matter.

If it`s heavy ground then Mullins should opt for the Champion Hurdle, but his loyalty to Hurricane Fly who will have his best chance on heavy ground may blatantly reveal itself.

It will be interesting if it does come up heavy.

The owner stated  that Mullins will put her in the race which she has best chance of winning,We now have to guess which race that is and for me the answer is the World Hurdle but Mullins may think Churdle.Clear as muck.

one of only 11 left in the champion hurdle.

Top rated at the weights according to timeform with a high topspeed rating also. There's only ever going to be one chance to win the big one if she's going chasing.

Is anybody aware of the top rated horse by timeform ever running in a different race than the champion?

If she was the top rated 2 miler you could have a point, but she aint.

You must be sweating on that world hurdle bet Angel but I'd be surprised if Willie reads the forum before deciding.

My powder is well and truly dry EO

How about you explaining your theory on her high topspeed rating? what does it mean to EO.

Top rated at the weights according to timeform with a high topspeed rating also

What does this mean Eo?

You've got stamina EO I'll give you that, head down and charge straight back in again.

What do you mean what does it mean Angel? I don't understand the question. Is it that you are unfamiliar with the work of Dave Edwards who compiles speed ratings on behalf of the post? Or are you questioning it's relevance?

Well first and foremost what is her topspeed rating?

Are you equating her topspeed rating in relation to her having enough speed as to take her chance in the Champion Hurdle?

Is this your interpretation of her topspeed rating?

Angel

This is what the racing post has to say about top speed:

Based on the race times recorded by each horse Topspeed ratings provide a unique insight into each horses ability, potential and preferred conditions. This report is a detailed analysis of the ratings achieved by each of the runners in conditions relevant to today's contest.

He has The Tent top rated on 157, with The Fly on 154, interestingly Melodic on 152, Annie on 150 and TNO on 148 as his top 5.

Many many variables involved with TS EO, the markets revolve around Official Ratings for a reason but TS can point out an improving type(AP obviously is)...You are looking at TS last time out?? So Annie at least produced that over 2 miles even if it did not improve her OR, at least conditions provided a truly run race of sorts.

Jetzki has a best TS of 151 but ran to 134 last out.
Hurricane Fly has a best TS of 161.

Just to add.

Melodic got his mark running in a bog. I find TS marks very useful over sprint racing when the ground has come up soft. I find those favs with a low TS mark need laying and those with a high TS mark need consideration.

Sure. It's all about opinions. Even official ratings are opinions as are those of timeform. My opinion is that the champion hurdle field cannot give her 7lbs and I'd like to see them try. The Mullins camp may hold a different view and as it is their horse they will choose.

Me too, if she is to run in the CH it would add some more tabasco to the event, however i would be laying her for a place.

Not sure how much to read into it but Nichols says the only danger to Big Bucks is AP.Does he say that in case AP runs in it or has Ruby told him sumfink.

For a place?

You must have balls of steel, deep pockets or both.

looks like AP and runswick royal are closely matched on a line through Doyley carte.

Runswick Royal franking the form today, yes Duffy.

I think we need to look at that previous 2 mile form when she was driven out to beat Defy Logic, who was giving her 7lb.

grocerjack 13 Feb 14 14:59 Joined: 28 Dec 05 | Topic/replies: 298 | Blogger: grocerjack's blog
Not sure how much to read into it but Nichols says the only danger to Big Bucks is AP.Does he say that in case AP runs in it or has Ruby told him sumfink.




It is probably because AP has beaten Zarkandar twice this season so he would have as good an idea as to how good she is as anyone.

Thunder road knew.

You must be sweating on that world hurdle bet Angel but I'd be surprised if Willie reads the forum before deciding

There are only two types of people, those who can extrapolate from incomplete messages.....

I beleve that the RICCI'S have been bamboozled by mullins,
serves him right if hurricane is beaten, chosen the wrong race.